Time for Yourdon, Core, Lord, Hyatt to apologize

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

What's with all the 'we' stuff in Yourdon's new essay. He is the guy with the supposed credentials here. These guys were dead wrong and they made a lot of people unnecessarily fearful. I know that Ed is not going to give up his new house, nor Hyatt his job, nor North his ranch. They're going to cry all the way to the bank.

But the least they could do is pretend to be repentent!

Lane Core and Jim Lord's recent messages to this forum are even worse than Yourdon's mealy-mouthed essay. Hey, YOU were the terrorists. Don't you understand that yet? You gave opinions on subjects you knew absolutely nothing about. There have been real consequences to real people as a result of your actions. Own up to it.

I just hope that each of them has someone in their immediate circle with a sharp tongue and a grudge.

    --bks

-- Bradley K. Sherman (bks@netcom.com), January 03, 2000

Answers

I suggest we don't feed the troll

Mike

======================================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 03, 2000.


Bradley K. Sherman,

You sound extremely angry. I sincerely hope you don't end up harming someone.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 03, 2000.


Say bks,

I guess the HEAT was to much for you over at csy2k.

Now your coming over here for more punishment!!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 03, 2000.


Bradley

I suggest a 72 hour admission to help calm you down.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 03, 2000.


Jesus! Give it a rest people!

How can you blame anybody for something that was and is the great unknown? Are you the only one that missed the last couple of years? This is *very* easy, some saw potential problems and some did not. Nobody that I ran across had "the answer". Be responsible for yourself and stop the whining...

-- BiGG (supersite@antigopro.net), January 03, 2000.



Ed, Lane, and Jim have nothing to apologize for. People are responsible for their own actions. William Jefferson Clinton, on the other hand, does have something to apologize for.

"I just hope that each of them has someone in their immediate circle with a sharp tongue and a grudge."

Sounds like a threat to me! I believe the transmission of a threat by electronic means is a crime. Perhaps someone would like to offer Ed, Lane, and Jim some pro bono legal help?

-- Wondering What (it@is all about.com), January 03, 2000.

I learned in college that when the predictions of prophets fail the true believers, contrary to common sense, redouble their trust in the failed prophet.

I didn't understand it then, I don't now, but the phenomenon is real.

    --bks

-- Bradley K. Sherman (bks@netcom.com), January 03, 2000.


Bradley

"I didn't understand it then, I don't now, but the phenomenon is real."

Like Y2K? Huh Bradley.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 03, 2000.


hey bks-

what happened to YOUR prediction on ironic.com for Jan 1 19100?..er 2000?

remember: ?????????????????

and please explain how Lane Core is a "terrorist". reference please.

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.


Apologize--my butt! We're all adults, and we make our own decisions. Some saw the Y2K issue as a huge joke, some saw it as a possibility, myself included and other saw it as the end of the world. No one made me do a thing. I decided to be prepared just in case. So nothing happened. Just enjoy the lights, etc., But also keep in mind the words of that great philosopher, Yogi Berra, "It anin't over 'till it's over."

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), January 03, 2000.


Let me try (though I do not know why I waste my time on a troll) to make this simple for you. You go to your mechanic to get your car fixed and he says "I think it's the fuel injectors causing the problem" then you go after a second opinion and find out the problem is really the fuel sensor. Do you now go back and freak out on the first mechanic regarding his guess? You don't also beat your wife do you? God forbid if she ever makes a wrong guess around the house.

-- BiGG (superste@antigopro.net), January 03, 2000.

bks,

I got your back G.

Reminder to the rest: these folks PROFITED off of y2k fears and intentionally scared and misled people to that end.

-- Mike (mike@noemail.net), January 03, 2000.


I take it that Bradley has never been wrong. Throwing stones in glass houses are we Bradley ??? Hammerhead...

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.

This thread should be deleted. It doesn't dontribute anything useful to the discussion.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.

Bradley, I have been reading your posts for nearly a year now on csy2k. I personally prepared extensively, including purchasing a home on 20 acres in the foothills, with all the bells and whistles - we worked our rear ends off (hubby and I) this whole year to provide a safe haven and adequate provisions for our adult children and grandchildren. As a minister, I encouraged my church members to prepare - with the result that many reacted angrily and derided me personally and/or departed. And we live in an active earthquake zone.

The point I want to make to you is that I made my decisions based on my own research, reading the State of CA White Paper, the GAO reports, the Senate and House reports, the audit reports of the State Department, and the Postal Inspector. I first grasped the potential seriousness of Y2K when I saw John Koskinen on Nightline in November of 1998. *HE* is the one who inspired me to research, take action, and prepare.

It seems to me to be an egregious failure of logic on your part to assault Yourdon, Yardeni, Lord et al when our own government and business leaders took the potentials seriously to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, not to mention hugely expensive bunkers and command centers.

We are all adults here. We make our own decisions, relying on our own intelligence and experience. We live with our mistakes as well as our bullseyes. I appreciated the deep concern expressed by the Milnes, Hamasakis, Yourdons, Yardenis, Lords, even North - because it echoed the deep concerns I felt in my own heart for my family and my world. I have never been prepared for anything before. Now I will never be unprepared again. And my family has visible evidence of the love I feel for them and the degree to which I cherish their lives.

So I suggest you put a sock in it. There is still a long road ahead before we come to the end of the year 2000. Why not be gracious in your apparent victory????? I for one would deeply appreciate it.

Susan

-- (snoozin@no.more), January 03, 2000.



I never felt terrorized. I never felt a compulsion to do anything. I did make my own decision, which I publicly stated, that Yourdon, deJager, Yardeni, and so on were fairly witless. But hey, maybe some real catastrophe will come along, and those who bought into the silliness will be the ones who get to gloat last. It won't be Y2K though: Simple problems, spread across time, with good workarounds, and little to no effect on society.

-- Jim Thompson (jimthompsonmd@attglobal.net), January 03, 2000.

Bradley, you are sooo bitter. You should REALLY chill out a little.

I've read and listened to North, Yourdan, Milne, et al, for the past two years and am a better person for it. Since my religious convictions dictate one year of preparation for myself and family for ANY contingency, I am not sad to have stored the things I have, just in case. As for my friends who have warned of the perils of Y2k, I am grateful to them for helping me focus my attention, and the attention of thoughtful people everywhere, on the precarious infrastructure of computer interconnectivity that so completely holds our world hostage.

People are fools to completely trust the technological monster modern society has created. It was/is time for people everywhere to wake up and incorporate more self-reliance in their lives. Ed, Paul, Dr. North, Infomagic, etc. helped many of realize just how fragile the ties that bind us really are. They are really the heroes of Y2k. And, many of us now know that the turning our lives over to the technocrats is a mistake of gigantic proportions. We owe our new awareness to them.

OTOH, your team also did much good. You were ever vigilant as you provided a lively counter-argument that helped many to exercise moderation. And, I thank you for that. I just hope that you continue to be right in your assessment of the situation. After all, isn't this (so far) the outcome we were all hoping for?

Brad, try to remember that many of us worried about Y2k and tried to sound the warning because we truly love our families, friends, and neighbors. It was as simple as that. So, why don't you give it a rest for awhile and let's wait a few more weeks, monitor what happens, and talk again at the end of April.

TH

-- Teague Harper (tharper@cyberhighway.net), January 03, 2000.


I think it would be difficult--and petty--to try to determine who needs to apologize and who doesn't. A lot of groups and individuals could be accused of making unnecessary statements about Y2K. Blame at this point is a waste of time and energy.

FEMA?

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0029an

[snip]

Preparing for 18 months, the agency's officials have rehearsed a multitude of scenarios, including explosions, power outages and nuclear disaster.

[snip]

Senator Bennett?

http://www.marshill.org/Y2K%20pages/will_we_have_power061298.htm

[snip]

CHAIRMAN ROBERT Bennett, R-Utah, said a survey his office sent to 10 of the nations largest electric, oil and gas utilities showed their preparations to ward off Year 2000 bugs were lagging.

Eight of the companies had not even finished assessing their automated systems, a first step in tackling the problem, Bennett said.

I had anticipated that I would be able to provide a positive report on the Year 2000 status of these public utilities, he said. Instead, based on the results of this survey, I am genuinely concerned about the very real prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change.

And it was Bennett who warned that he felt there was a 100 percent chance the U.S. power grid would collapse if today were Jan. 1, 2000. Because the date is 18 months away, he estimated the chance of collapse on that date is 40 percent  not as high, but still significant.

[snip]

Peter de Jager?

http://www.year2000.co.nz/y2kher29.htm

[snip]

Not all though. Before his short visit to New Zealand, Mr de Jager was in Japan. A recent magazine survey of banks worldwide drew responses from 48 Japanese banks, including some of the world's largest. In total they estimated their year 2000 projects would cost US$259 million (NZ$463 million).

'In the US, Citicorp is spending $600 million. The CBA in Australia is spending $100 million. Barclays and Natwest are spending #100 million each. It doesnt take many banks to be spending more than the Japanese in total.

"Japan will melt" Mr de Jager said.

That is something to consider for those whose business relies on trade with Japan.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), January 03, 2000.


People say; You buy car insurance you never use right?

I say, Yes, but I do not buy car insurance on a car that does not exist.

There are those who trusted and prepared, then there are those who trusted and went through extreme life changes over what they believed.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), January 03, 2000.


Susan, the Government told you to prepare for a winter storm. Is that in accord with Hyatt and Yourdon and Lord? You're fooling yourself even now.

Teague, April? Har!

Like I said, I don't understand this phenomenon, but it's real. They trolled you like so many guppies, and you love them for it.

Yogi Berra did know when it was over. It's over. You're looking at a 1% drop in the DJIA on 3 January like it's a sign, when a month ago you wondered if there would even be lights and water. Wake up.

To the guy who wants to trim the thread: To make room for what?

    --bks

-- Bradley K. Sherman (bks@netcom.com), January 03, 2000.


Ah, Mr. Sherman, your sun is setting, isn't it? You've put as much energy into debunking the effects of y2k as others have into hyping it. You've invested so much energy and ego and now, since, apparently, the end is in sight, you've whipped yourself into a self congratulatory frenzy and need as much ego stroking as you can before it all goes away. You've fed your pathetic inflated sense of self as much on y2k as anybody else. Deal with it. If it's over, it's over. Who's going to kiss your ass? No one. Who's going to take your advice about confession and apologies? No one. Go back to work. Do you work? You post so much, it's hard to see how you do. Oh, wait, that's right -- your work is over on csy2k. Better slime on back before it's closed down and you find yourself out of a job.

-- Incognito (layinglow@thecrib.com), January 03, 2000.

Bradley,

Have you ever introspected as to why you have such a strong need for closure? Are you aware of it? You know, it's only midstream.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 03, 2000.


Actually, I never bothered to visit/view yourdons or north's info/sites/whatever. I decided to prep based on the facts I learned from News sources including ZDNet- who were moderate in their approach.

~snip~ "In a desert survival situation you can drink the water from your radiator..."

U.S. Survival Feild Manual circa 1930, still tought today. ~snip~

You don't like what the host is serving- Don't hang out in the party.

-- Satanta (EventHoriz@n.com), January 03, 2000.


Bradley, by the time the govt got to the "winter storm" message, I - like many others - had already not only formulated my plans, but had acted extensively upon them.

As others have stated to the point where it now sounds cliche-ish, for me it was not so much the odds as the stakes. Yourdon, Hyatt, Lord -lions and tigers and bears, haha - why focus on these personalities?? Why not Bennett, Dodd and Horn? Or Willemson and Bridges? Or the Red Cross and FEMA, not to mention the Naval War College? Or Leigh Schein, head of the US Civil Service and on the President's Council, who spoke to me personally in Oakland?

You are beating a straw horse, Brad - and it sounds way too personal. Don't give these guys more credit than they deserve. *Your* comments, and the tone with which you made them, helped greatly to persuade me that the polly viewpoint was extremely biased and therefore as unreliable as Gary North's point of view... I viewed you two as opposite poles of the same spectrum.

Give it a rest. I am sitting today in my beautiful, renovated mountain home with the sun shining, the frost evaporating, woodstove going, with a month of leisure ahead of us before returning to the Bay Area, feeling pretty darn content. As the old teaching tale goes, "We shall see if this is good or bad, only time will tell."

Susan

Susan

-- (snoozin@no.more), January 03, 2000.


Brad: "make room for what?"

well, if I was LC, I'd say make room for a libel suit.

Please explain how LC used "a systemic use of TERROR, especially as a means of COERCION" (webster's def: terrorist)

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.


"People say; You buy car insurance you never use right?

I say, Yes, but I do not buy car insurance on a car that does not exist."

Cherri, you ignorant slut.

So WHAT if you don't "buy car insurance on a car that does not exist".

The fact that you *continue* to buy car insurance for ACCIDENTS that DO NOT EXIST marks you as a hypocrite or a fool.

Or both.

By the way, how's that "peddling your ass around the base" business going these days?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 03, 2000.


Correction, Beeks. The gov't said "A three day storm", but always mumbled the disclaimer, "but no one knows for sure", at the end.

Gary North was always "Scary Gary" in my book, Yourdon had some interesting things to say, but I never took it as gospel, InfoMagic had an obvious religious agenda, etc, etc. I could go on and on (I do have a debt of gratitude to Yourdon, however, for starting this wonderful forum, but that's aside from his Y2K view).

The thing that got me to take Y2K seriously, had nothing to do with the people you mentioned. What did, you ask? I watched the video the U.S. Chamber of Commerce put out, and saw expert after expert say, "Well, we don't think anything catastrophic will happen, but no one knows for sure.". That, "no one knows for sure"*** got me a little worried. Then I looked at the reports from the IEEE. Didn't look too rosy. Then I stopped and considered all the really crappy software that's hit the market over the last decade, and thought "Holy sh*t, the bungled remediation efforts could be worse than the original problem!". Then add to that last one, the way that the need for patches for your Y2K patches, was a daily occurence. Then you add the problem that few were even preparing for as much as a three day storm. The whole thing had potential problem written all over it (even most pollies are surprised that there haven't been more problems than there has been).

Nothing said by North, Lord, Infomagic, Yourdon, etc led to me preparing. If I was in fact, a "FUD" casualty (and time WILL tell, won't it?), then I did it to myself, and the people you mentioned owe me no apologies.

Sorry, Beeks, but it's the polly meme that we are all just a bunch of cultists, led down a rosy path by profiteering leaders. And shame on any GI's who take that "out", now, rather than take their lumps. We are all adults; we made our own decisions. (***I still own the video, so if anyone is going to get tedious and insist on exact quotes, I suppose I can find some time to watch it again, and transcribe. The one person I do remember specifically saying those exact words (no one knows for sure) was John Koskinen. Others said it, or said something to that same effect, but I watched the video in May, so my memory is a little hazy. I only remember one person in the vid stating, without qualifiers, that absolutely NOTHING would go wrong, and that was someone from CommEd.)

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), January 03, 2000.


They owe you nothing Bradley.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 03, 2000.

Sherm the germ shows up, there goes the neighborhood.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 03, 2000.

"I just hope that each of them has someone in their immediate circle with a sharp tongue and a grudge. "

--bks

That about sums it up, all you are interested in.

In contrast, Yourdon has offered reason and reasoned discourse.

The shills are threatened by prepared individuals, they prefer to administer a statist solution , keeping the administrative overhead to feather their own nest.

I don't know what the shills fear, but their shrieks and feigned concern for others is transparent.

-- Tom Beckner (becknert@xout.erols.com), January 03, 2000.


INCREDIBLE! after all the abuses heaped on the "pollies" by the loud-mouth, death-loving, sociopath doomers....for the last THREE OR FOUR YEARS....now you pessimists say "oh, stop whining!"

sheesh!

where were you when the extremists were taking all their shots at bonafide experts and doing all the name-calling? huh?

Do you enjoy a double standard in everything you do?

(note to BKS and all other realists reading this....THANK YOU for sticking it out over the long haul! even when faced by loud mouthed jerks like milne, you never backed off....it IS appreciated!)

Time for a few extreme pessimists to get a visit to the woodshed.

-- jeezy peezy (thats@just.about unbelievable!), January 03, 2000.


Oh, and I find it very amuzing that Ron has the guts to call Bradley "sherm the germ". After watching you and Stan duke it out the week before Christmas (two vendors at each others throats...who would have guessed? LOL!) I thought I would puke. You have the gumshun to say "there goes the neighborhood"?

If lived by the likes of you, I'd be selling quick, you snakeoil salesman.

-- jeezy peezy (thats@just.about unbelievable!), January 03, 2000.


Bradley Sherman is right in pointing out that people who encouraged others to take drastic actions that were unnecessary should take some sort of responsibility.

-- Travis Porco (tcporco@transbay.net), January 03, 2000.

The opposition will always accuse...

* Authors of just trying to make a buck * Religious people of proselyting and passing the collection plate * Those who dare to question one's optimism of being eternal pessimists

Gary North asked questions. These questions were either:

* Never answered at all * Never answered satisfactorily * Never answered convincingly enough to ward off a doomer conclusion or, * Were asnwered with lies, incompetence, ignorance, doubletalk and just plain non sense

Question: Why were the doomers able to get so far with their "agenda"?

Answer: They had help... from all sides

* Consultants. Love 'em or hate 'em, the government and business bought into their 'hype' hook, line and sinker.

* Government. They could have squashed this from the very beginning, or at least kept a low profile, but each person that stepped up to the microphone had something different to say and each individual changed their story all too frequently.

They painted themselves to be naive (on y2k), incompetent and frantic; like a deer in the headlights, right up to the 11th hour.

Various agencies and spokespeople recommended various levels of prepartations, essentially squabbling with each other and those who couldn't take the heat would retract their statements and web pages.

The IG and GAO caught agencies in lies and false reporting and complinace statements: FAA, SSA, DOD.

* Business. These people are supposed to know what they are doing and well... they jumped on the bandwagon too. Top dollar budgets, deadlines, 'a year for testing', stockpiling supplies, buying generators, saying "we're ok, but our suppliers might not be", etc.

* Utilities/Industrial. Lots of money spent here as well and apparently most of it on embedded's. Talk about falling for it, right polly's?

* Usenet experts. Good info can be had from usenet but the bottom line is that it was the polly's job to convince the doomers that serious threats to our way of life were non sense and that no preparation was needed; and they failed miserably.

Some points that helped convince me and the rest of the doomers that the people working on this problem were incompetent:

* Mission/non-mission critical systems. This was probably the earliest sign that somebody didn't know their butt from a hole in the wall.

If y2k was no problem and/or you (a company) are going to lie to the public anyway, then there is no need to publically state that you have run out of time and have been forced to break your systems up into two categories.

And I still don't believe that the non mission critical category was comprised of coffee makers, paper shredders, fax machines and machines that you wouldn't bother replacing if they broke anyway. What would be the point of counting them in the first place?

* Dealines and budgets. Businesses willingly set deadlines and then missed them. All of them. They also increased budgets up to the 11th hour. Now, how does this look to the *layman* who is trying to figure out what the hell is going on?

Not to mention the businesses that were seen 'hoarding' supplies in case of _potential_ breakdowns (keyword here is: POTENTIAL). Talk about scaremongering!

Keep in mind everyone, that most of us are laymen on this issue and the only thing we can do is gather information/facts and make our best guess.

* Actual failures. Most of these seem to have been installation failures and remediatied failures in production. They told us that the problem was real and serious. That FOF was absurd and that a 2-3 hour (or day) fix was impossible to guarantee.

This, along with every survey available pointing to the lack of work done all over the world, gives way to an *obvious* potential problem.

I see no reason to view North, Hyatt and Yourdon as anything but sincere individuals who turned out to be wrong _thus far_ (fortunately).

They asked legitiamte questions and were able to poke a lot of holes in the answers given. If those answers had been solid as a rock, this would all have been over with before it started.

My revised Y2k assesment:

Personally, I think we are mostly out of the woods save for a possible recession. Every system needs to have time to run through all of it's processing.

Thank you Gary North, Ed Yourdon, Michael Hyatt and all the rest who weren't afraid to 'question authority'.

Thanks to all of the csy2k pollys for doing your best to keep things balanced; it does now appear that you were right.

I must finally say, that if I had it to do all over again, the only thing I would do different would be to stock up sooner and spend more money. That is how complicated this issue was/is and at least for the laymen, hindsight is _not_ 20/20.

(this has sort of turned into a speech but I don't do them often :) )

-- Mark Hungerford (milky@socket.net), January 03, 2000.


Went to Sears on Sunday - was told my tires were worn (they were, but had not blown out yet) and were unsafe to balance, re-align, or repair.

What a doomer - boy did that tire salesman have me picked for a sucker. All he was interested was a blood-sucking profit and his sales commission!

According to Bradley - that all ..... Right?

But - I spent as much on those tires - which had not failed, were still holding pressure, and did not appear to be in imminent danger of blowing out in the next few miles as they had in the past 35,000 miles - so why should I believe him?

There was less evidence of failure in the tires than in my personal experience in software repair and editing. There was a lots danger - if things had gone wrong on Saturday and Sunday.....This salesman was more credible tham any of the administration's spokemen have been the last six years of lies and politcal deceit.

BUT I GOT THE TIRES CHANGED ANYWAY.....Bradley seems to say I should have waited until they blew out, because the salesman was obviously self-interested....

By the way, how much has GN made from me? None. Ed? About a $1.00- it would have been more profitable, and a lot more comfortable - for him to ignore my education and let me proceed on without his references. Jim Lord? None. Hyatt? None.

They, however, do have my highest respect and honor.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 03, 2000.


Mark - I'm stunned. I got to reading your reply, and half way through it, I scrolled down to see who the author was. You have , very much better then I could, described my exact feelings on the subject. Thank you.

-- Drew (nope@uh.huh..com), January 03, 2000.

Cherri; You have shown yourself to be much too experienced and correct in your assessement of the initial rollover period to actually believe (or make) statements like, 'a car that doesn't exist'. It is time for atleast the engineers and scinetists to stop frothing at the mouth and make measured, carefull, statements about where we are and what we know. Things look better every day. Will it remain so? The jury is still out on the Accounting and Administrative software.

Dale Way, has shown himself to be remarkably accurate to date. The other shoe has not dropped and may well fall in slow motion when it does. The huge number of 'silly' mistakes we are starting to see on web pages and to a lesser degree in some minor financial software does not bode well. With the HUGE effort that was put into remediation, there is absolutly NO excuse for the problems we have seen with some sendmail servers running on NT to refuse to forward mail with bad dates until the sysadm finally deletes all mail sent on that day. I am NOT saying these are even particularily serious problems. What I am saying is that I haven't got a clue as to what problems are actually out there right now being repaired with 20 hour programmer days. I do feel that what we are seeing indicates that there are some. I would never expect any serious business to report software issues to the public at large and with your experience in the business I am confident that you also would never expect such a thing. Hopefully we will never even know that there were any problems in the accounting and administrative software anywhere, but I think that such a hope is a bit too optimistic. We will see problems, the question remains, how serious?

I am not making predictions. I am observing and trying to figure out what I am seeing. Last night I posted that I thought the market would make a gain today... dead wrong. I said I thought gold would be a great investment by Wednesday because I expected it to go down but (grin) some sites were reporting it at $11,500 per oz. and oil (giggle) at $11,300 per barrel. I will be the first to admit that neither of these 'software features' was a significant problem. BUT they indicate to me that more problems of a serious nature ARE possible. The operative word is possible.

I remain undecided at the eventual outcome of this scenario. I am not trying to convince you of my opinion. Just stating it.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 03, 2000.


After the constant death threats to "pollies" on this forum, the "sharp tongue and a grudge" idea is mild.

"Doomers" are now upset because they are the butt of jokes on a national scale? What's the matter? Many of you were PRAYING for calamity in order to "stick it" to the "pollies".

Why should any of us be gracious in the face of your defeat? You've spent years telling anyone who would listen you'd be happy to *shoot* those who showed up at your home asking for help.

It's been a rough several days, hasn't it? Good for you, BKS.

-- Miss Steak (MissSteak@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.


Miss Steak--I totally agree. It is true that those of us who took the doomers a bit seriously are responsible for what they thought. But the fact is that we can now be fairly sure that the doomers did not know what they were talking about. Some of them used their technical expertise to intimidate their critics. They were so overwhelmingly wrong it is actually a shock, and they owe an apology to the people who listened to them and took them seriously.

-- Travis Porco (tcporco@transbay.net), January 03, 2000.

ALL I KNOW IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE A WARM AND FATTENING WINTER WITH ALL THESE SUPPLIES I NEED TO USE UP........KINDA GIVES ME A WARM FEELING INSIDE



-- Patrick Owen (p8ntr911@aol.com), January 03, 2000.

BKS and Travis_

Would y'all mind wandering up to the Dale Way article about the fat lady and respond to his comments?? He points out that the folks who tied all their expectations to the rollover were incorrect from the get-go. He also points out that the REAL problems are going to show up in the hard to remediate but HIGH intrinsic value business systems.

chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 03, 2000.


Mark Hungerford:

You write:

[Gary North asked questions. These questions were either:

* Never answered at all * Never answered satisfactorily * Never answered convincingly enough to ward off a doomer conclusion or, * Were asnwered with lies, incompetence, ignorance, doubletalk and just plain non sense.]

I beg to differ with you about this comment. North's questions were answered accurately and thoroughly, by many. YOU may have found the answers unsatisfactory, but that doesn't mean they were. You are quite correct that these answers weren't convincing enough to ward off doomer conclusions. By now, it should be clear that *nothing* is sufficient to do that. I've been repeating for over a year now that when these peoples' opinions are flat contradicted by facts, they reject the facts in favor of their opinions.

And lies? Turns out those were true. Incompetence and ignorance? By what standards? It seems those answering North were both competent and knowledgeable, even if you refused to believe it at the time.

The doubletalk is more complicated. North has proved himself an absolute master of the leading question -- a question that assumes the answer and cannot be answered directly without confirming his assumption. Like asking, "Are you are stupid because you were born stupid." Yes or no? Either answer you gives admits you are stupid.

But if you try to claim you aren't stupid, you are "ducking the question", you are "changing the subject", you are engaging in doubletalk. See how it works? North can't lose if he gets to make up the rules as he goes along, and he knows it. He refused to be interviewed by any media where he didn't control the rules.

Visit North's site today, and look at the recent items. We've had a few days of overwhelmingly good news from absolutely everywhere, and North managed to dredge up some half-hearted warnings and a couple of extremely minor problems. This is what that wonderful source of "hard data" has been reduced to.

And does North answer his own questions, now that their underlying assumptions have been discredited? Why not?

Bradley is absolutely correct about one thing. A fanatic is one who redoubles his energy after he's forgotton his goal. Whole threads here have been filled with effusive thanks to those who misled the thankers badly. In some cases *very* badly.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 03, 2000.


Well, I'd put it this way: I'm not a professional computer programmer or enterprise data analyst or anything of the sort. I'm sure the bugs that were found during remediation and fixed needed to be fixed. Maybe there will still be more problems of data corruption or something. I have no idea, and have no reasonable way to find out either way. I don't always know bullsh*t when I see it, but I know bullsh*tters :) Why, in the name of General Jackson, was Y2K something that I as a random citizen ever needed to know about or think about? Does Everyman need to know about object-oriented design or RISC architecture? There are details about the way the nation's computers are run and maintained that I don't need to know about. But to hear the doomers tell it, they had technical expertise I didn't have, and by heaven I sure better worry about Y2K. Now I can see a track record of failed predictions from the doom crowd, and I want to know where their groupthink came from. I want to know why a lot of other people who know nothing about computers and don't care to know anything more had the wits scared out of them by the doomers; I had elderly relatives worrying that sewage was going to come out of their faucet come 1 Jan 2000. As far as I'm concerned the technical experts who fanned the flames of this overweening tripe--taking it away from trade journals and newsletters and onto the radio and television for the rest of us to worry about--have some explaining to do. (I explicitly ignore Gary North, who has no credentials whatsoever, and whose desire to see the system collapse so his friends can start a tyranny is obvious to everyone now).

-- Travis Porco (tcporco@mathepi.com), January 03, 2000.

Flint writes:

Mark Hungerford:

You write:

[Gary North asked questions. These questions were either:

* Never answered at all * Never answered satisfactorily * Never answered convincingly enough to ward off a doomer conclusion or, * Were asnwered with lies, incompetence, ignorance, doubletalk and just plain non sense.]

I beg to differ with you about this comment. North's questions were answered accurately and thoroughly, by many. YOU may have found the answers unsatisfactory, but that doesn't mean they were.

[MH] Well, there are many things that polly's and doomers will never agree on, but contrary to what a few say, I don't think it is a matter of intelligence. It is a matter of perspective and we each have a different one.

One does not have to concede to the opposition in order to see things from their perspective. It can be a very difficult task to look at something in a different light, but it is not impossible.

What I have found is that most pollys make no attempt at this and are fond of spewing the same old rhetoric: "Yourdon is just selling books.... North is just pushing his religion". In the programmer's cubicle, the double zeros may be all there is to this problem, but on the outside it's a whole other world.

Economics, sociology, politics, ethics and communication all played a full part in this game. 00 is simple. Toss in these categories and you get complicated.

Answers to North's questions rarely satisfied me as most of the time they were vague and either missed or dodged the point. Keep in mind that as I (and most doomers) did not view North's opinion as the final word of and by itself, nor was I willing to accept only one polly opinion as complete refutation of dire predictions.

Before making any decisions, I wanted to see a wide variety of information from all sides. After a few thousand hours of research, I believe I got it.

The prominent internet doomers are often accused of being responsible for this whole mess. To me, this is just silly. To say that North, Yourdon, Hyatt, Hamasaki, Infomagic and Milne have been at the reigns this entire time is tunnel vision, at the least.

North and the others were just the spark. The ensuing fire was fueled by self professed optimists who unwittingly opened up Pandora's Box and stepped in it time and time again.

Most of the time, all North had to do was point out which pile of poop government, business and our beloved experts had stepped in. Much of my research time was spent analysing these foul ups and back pedaling, and trying to figure out what it pointed to. It certainly didn't point to anything good.

Now, not only did the pollys have to debunk the technical aspects of Y2k, they were left with the job of explaining why people on their side of the aisle were unable to get their story straight and were still bumbling around with a grab bag full of phony numbers in the 11th hour.

It's unfortunate if the pollys had the answer the whole time, but I don't think this fiasco can be pinned on North _or_ Yourdon (unless you *know* that he was insincere). I contend that if the polly position was solid from the get go, then the 'hype' would have been flatened on day one.

North responsible for $300 billion in over hyped and unnecessary repairs as demonstrated by the millions of FOF businesses who have yet to go belly up, let alone belch (according to our astute media)? Pollys would have an easier time selling me on Santa Claus.

[/MH]

You are quite correct that these answers weren't convincing enough to ward off doomer conclusions. By now, it should be clear that *nothing* is sufficient to do that. I've been repeating for over a year now that when these peoples' opinions are flat contradicted by facts, they reject the facts in favor of their opinions.

[MH] I disagree on both counts (save for a handful bandwagoneers that can be found in any group). There have been plenty of facts and evidence to support a potential, if not imminent, recession/depression and major infrastructure failures _could_ bring about some form of collapse.

Don't forget: Your own team has been playing against you, whether you want to claim them or not :) This has been the tank of gasoline tossed on the fire.

[/MH]

And lies? Turns out those were true. Incompetence and ignorance? By what standards? It seems those answering North were both competent and knowledgeable, even if you refused to believe it at the time.

[MH] Lies are lies. Lie implies intent to mislead so I would be willing to lessen the charge to negligence/incompetence for the sake of the discussion. FAA, DOD and "a year for testing" then "9 months for testing" then "6 months" then "3 months" ect., etc. are shining examples.

Our government is lucky most people are born apathetic lest they stand up and question this consistent inability to give us a straight answer. Now _that_ could cause a panic!

As far as various experts answering North: I have no doubt, and never did, that they were competent individuals giving their expert opinions, but there are two things to note here:

1) There are more than a few experts playing on the doom or MOTR team. The experience of these experts never seemed to be in question by the pollys. Only the specific possible outcomes of the Y2k bug itself were debated.

So where did this leave the lay people? Sifting through a bunch of technical mumbo jumbo trying to decide who knows what they're talking about. North, myself and the doomsquad have followed this debate and came to the only rational conclusion possible: Better to be safe than sorry.

And if these non-polly experts are sincere, I don't blame them for being wrong. Not one bit.

2) Once again, the pollys (optimists) have been squabbling amongst themselves the entire time. A straight, party line answer (at least 80% - 90%) was called for in this situation and was never achieved.

Such a simple problem. Mostly hype. Not much to worry about. This should have been gravy work for the polly debunking team.

[/MH]

The doubletalk is more complicated. North has proved himself an absolute master of the leading question -- a question that assumes the answer and cannot be answered directly without confirming his assumption. Like asking, "Are you are stupid because you were born stupid." Yes or no? Either answer you gives admits you are stupid.

But if you try to claim you aren't stupid, you are "ducking the question", you are "changing the subject", you are engaging in doubletalk. See how it works? North can't lose if he gets to make up the rules as he goes along, and he knows it. He refused to be interviewed by any media where he didn't control the rules.

[MH] I have seen a few of these, though I think it is only a few. For example, condemning companies to non-compliance because we can't get IV&V for each and every one. There was simply no way we were going to get to peek in the windows of every major business and this allows for no conclusions on compliance. However, this lack of verification is certainly not a harbinger of _good_ news either, given the nasty public track record business has had thus far.

[/MH]

Visit North's site today, and look at the recent items. We've had a few days of overwhelmingly good news from absolutely everywhere, and North managed to dredge up some half-hearted warnings and a couple of extremely minor problems. This is what that wonderful source of "hard data" has been reduced to.

[MH] Well, I see it in a different light (for the most part). I have never been fond of doomers dredging up Y2k printout flaws and NG posting date errors. I would rather hear nothing at all.

If he is only posting half hearted warnings then maybe that's because that's all he can find, and all there is left. If you have followed his site you know that he has posted a massive number of links to highly optimistic and 100% polly information.

He may disbelieve much of it, but for those who think he is trying to serve his 'agenda' any which way he can, I'd say he could do a hell of lot better than he has been.

[/MH]

And does North answer his own questions, now that their underlying assumptions have been discredited? Why not?

[MH] Are these assumptions:

1) The experts disagreed, in all camps, on all levels until the final hour.

2) Government and business have been caught with their pants down making _assumption_ after _assumption_, all the while pleading to us "trust us, we know what we're doing".

3) Deadlines have been missed and budgets have expanded up to the last minute with no (polly-esque) verifiable, reasonable explanation. We are left to _assume_ that, *this time* they will make it.

4) Various pollyannas, optimists, utilities, businesses, agencies and organizations have recommended from several days to several weeks worth of preps while telling us "it won't be that bad".

Everyone makes assumptions and predictions and everyone is prone to oversight, negligence, mistakes and excess adrenaline putting you over the mark.

Some fuss about North's religious agenda. I don't care. The links on his site have done more to boost the doomer position than any religious spiel ever could.

[/MH]

Bradley is absolutely correct about one thing. A fanatic is one who redoubles his energy after he's forgotton his goal. Whole threads here have been filled with effusive thanks to those who misled the thankers badly. In some cases *very* badly.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 03, 2000.

[MH] This has all been covered. Misled implies intent. Arguing this instead of patching the holes the polly team has dug for themselves has served the doomers well (unfortunately). [/MH]

-- Mark Hungerford (milky@socket.net), January 04, 2000.


bold off

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), January 04, 2000.

I just noticed the bold (thanks for the tip). However, I did not turn it on and don't know how to turn it off. Help please.

-- Mark Hungerford (milky@socket.net), January 04, 2000.

off!

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), January 04, 2000.

off!

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), January 04, 2000.

Underline off?

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), January 04, 2000.

Underwear Off?

(checking)

nope.

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.


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