http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-01/02/172l-010200-idx.html

How Did It All Go Right? Officials, Experts Happily Seek Answers to Y2K Riddle By Rajiv Chandrasekaran Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, January 2, 2000; Page A01

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/2000-01/03/013l-010300-idx.html

Y2K: No Sham  A Success Story (Washington Post) by Peter de Jager

Like the article title above states above, I can honestly ask the question: How Did It All Go right?

Like many of you, I have written software for both the commercial and Federal Sector for many years. And I must tell you, I am literally amazed and speechless to answer why we didnt see some (or at least one) major catastrophe due to Y2K problems.

Here are the reasons why I am amazed:

7 Most computer systems (especially complex ones) do NOT function 100% correctly for days, weeks, months after being installed. 7 Credible companies like the Gartner Group reported repeatedly that there were countries that were doing very little, and some next to NOTHING regarding Y2K remediation (including Russia). 7 I am not an Electrical Power Grid expert, but it is my understanding that even OUR power grid (which is composed of several regional power grids) was not tested from end to end. It is unrealistic, in my opinion, to have expected power grids in small 3rd world countries to hold up. 7 Similarly, it is impossible to test our phone network, in the USA alone, because of the sheer numbers of independent phone systems that make up the components of that network.

Yes, there were and still are real reasons for concern. Lets look at the facts  not conjecture:

7 Our own Senators and Congressman, after months of research, determined and reported to the public that there was legitimate concerns regarding Banking, the stability of the Power Grid, Transportation, Telecommunications, etc. The leaders being Senator Bob Bennett, Senator Dodge, and Congressman Horne. During this investigation, many experts in their fields were called in to testify during investigative hearings. 7 The U.S. has spent more on Y2K than the entire Viet Nam War. 7 Experts are saying that the total expenditure for Y2K around the world is between $500 Million to $1 Trillion dollars. 7 Experts are still saying that lawsuits due to Y2K failure will be at least $1 Trillion dollars. 7 The American Red Cross has been warning people for at least the last year to prepare for Y2K as a disaster. 7 FEMA did the same. 7 I have attended county Emergency Management Services meetings, working with FEMA, that expressed a real concern, and detailed PLANS for Y2K related emergencies. 7 I have listened and discussed with Government remediation leaders their concerns and plans for preparing for Y2K problems. There was great concern, and definitive planning. 7 Over a year ago, the emphasis in, at least, the commercial sector has been Contingency Planning  NOT how to become COMPLIANT. The reason? Because most large companies knew that it would be almost impossible and legally irresponsible to claim to be 100% compliant. 7 The White House spent between $40 - $50 Million dollars building a Y2K bunker to monitor Y2K. 7 At the cost of Millions of Dollars, New York City, Los Angeles, and Denver did the same. It has been suggested that over 40 cities followed suit. 7 Several states, including Wisconsin, were prepared months ago to use to National Guard to help out in case of Y2K emergencies. Especially riot control. 7 Japan had 96,000 of their own military ready to prevent rioting due to Y2K. 7 For almost a year, Canada stated that they were ready to use thousands of their own National Guard to keep order, due to Y2K problems. 7 The UK did the same. 7 Insurance companies, and public utilities have issued warning statements to their customers regarding limiting their liabilities due to Y2K. 7 AT&T told the Coast Guard, at the beginning of 1999, that they expected that at least 25% of their long distance capability would be affected by Y2K. When asked which 25% of their system  they stated that they did not know. 7 During the last two weeks of December the news mentioned that 50 documents, relating to disaster control and aid, (one for each State) had been prepared for President Clinton to sign  if there were Y2K disasters. 7 Etc., etc., etc.

Notice that I did not once mention or reference Ed Yourdon, Peter de Jager, Gary North, Jim Lord, or Michael Hyatt. These were/are GOVERNMENT, Emergency Services, Insurance companies and public utilities statements, plans and concerns.

Conclusion: What we have experienced goes beyond technological prowess. You see, in the Washington Post article referenced above, the writer was incorrect. Yes, there are millions of computers and billions of embedded systems around the world to be tested  BUT, there were NOT and is NOT enough technical people in the Entire World to test ALL these systems, and individual computers  in the time frame alloted.

I would have to say that what has happened  thus far  falls more into the area of a miracle  supernatural ("beyond the normal") if you please. And I dont use this lightly.

Are there problems left to encounter? Yes. Do I know the impact? No. Does anyone? Probably not. But if we can believe credible firms such as the Gartner Group, there has been a determination that some NEW serious errors have been introduced into computer systems around the World in the process of fixing the Y2K date problem.

Have you forgotten, that the FBI was reported in the news a couple of weeks ago (I believe the Washington Post) as saying that they had found evidence of SABOTAGE of some U.S. software systems that had been farmed out to programming firms in foreign countries.

So, lets be thankful for the integrity of Power Grid, etc. But, lets be careful NOT to jump to conclusions about total success  yet. The Y2K problem is still the largest single problem to challenge civilization.

Computer systems, have Daily processing, Week End processing, Pay Period processing, Month End processing, Quarter End processing, Year End processing, Projection processing, etc. There is a LOT of dates to look at yet, and systems to run. It was mentioned a tecnical journal last week, that in the last 20 days of 1999, that Microsoft had modified 500 of their software products. Have you got the latest change to Excel - the most used Microsoft product in business.

Those of you who prepared were wise  to not have done so would have been both presumptuous and foolish. I am glad that because of a few of you, I have someone to work with me, the Red Cross, and FEMA  if there is a disaster in my area. Thank you.

Never act from emotion or fear. God is in control. But, lets learn to work with Him. Be rational and reasonable in all that you do. Do NOT obsess.

I, myself, need to learn more on how to keep a balance with being personally responsible to myself, my family, my church and my community  while yet enjoying the moment of the day.

God bless, M.C.

-- M.C. (mountaineer60@juno.com), January 03, 2000

Answers

"Have you forgotten, that the FBI was reported in the news a couple of weeks ago (I believe the Washington Post) as saying that they had found evidence of SABOTAGE of some U.S. software systems that had been farmed out to programming firms in foreign countries. "

This concerns me greatly. There could be covert/ clandestine unauthorized data access, in several top security US and allied systems, going on currently.

"Back doors", private access, password reveltions, etc.

Clinton has already given (sold) the bomb to China, as well as the Panama Canal...

-- Jonah (this@there.not), January 03, 2000.

M.C.:

We prepared for the worst and prayed for the best, and God has given us what we prayed for (so far).

Blessed be the Name of the Lord!

-- Connie Iversen (hive@gte.net), January 04, 2000.