Let's Put An End To The Hidden Error Debate ....

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Look, I'm still expecting an 8.5.

But let's find some common ground about Y2K glitches that are "hidden" within organizations.

First, no organization with any brains reports problems externally that can be solved internally. That's not conspiracy - it's simply sensible business.

Of course, many, if not most, Y2K impacts internally will be minor. They will be fixed without fanfare.

An unknown percentage may be moderate to critical. These will either be fixed; a work-around will be designed and the bug will be fixed later or leave this world when the system is replaced sometime in the future; or, if the impact brings down a critical system, the red alert will be sounded and enormous energy will be applied to the problem.

To be sure, we don't know whether or if the accumulated load of minor problems will swamp support operations at a given point. We debated this without resolution on this forum last year. Milage will vary for many, many reasons. If problems swamp support, we don't know at what point they will become visible to customers and the world. Nor do we know at what point, for a given operation, failure means business failure.

The same is true for the "red alert" situations, though their dynamic is obviously more intense, acute and immediate.

It will take days, weeks, months or "never" for Y2K problems to be made visible to US, consumer-users. By visible, I mean that business failures are occurring that affect the customer (or supply-chain partners, who are also customers). If business failures do not occur visibly, Y2K is a "victory" for all of us even if there were billions of Y2K glitches behind the scenes.

Moreover, it is obvious for a host of political and legal reasons that some organizations will never report a business failure as "Y2K" while others may report non-Y2K failures as Y2K failures - ironically, this may be safer legally, given legislation passed last year by Congress.

In sum, we're in for a period of weirdness while we WAIT to see Y2K's world impact (no, kids, 01/01/2000 wasn't the end of the "wait", just the optimistic beginning).

Meanwhile, let's not expect entities to report hidden glitches. Let's not assume that the absence of reporting means "bad" things are happening behind the scenes. Let's not assume that the absence of visible failures on 01/02/2000 means "good" things are happening behind the scenes.

We've spent two to five years preparing for Y2K. Unlike "Joanne", yes, we are not IN the window of impact. But even the fiercest pollies (Koskinen at al) are looking for weeks of impacts. They expect minor impacts. I expect major impacts.

Still hope they're right and I'm wrong. And still don't know more about THAT than I did 12/31/1999.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 02, 2000

Answers

"we are now IN the window of impact."

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 02, 2000.

an 8.5??? You mean you STILL think there are going to be millions dead this winter?

BWAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAWWAAHHAHAAWAHAHAWAHHAAWAHAHAWAWAHHAAWAAHHAHAHH AHAAWWAWAWWA!!!!!!!!!

Don't worry BigDog, you are WRONG, no need to wonder about it anymore.

-- (ha!@ha.hahhha), January 02, 2000.


Thanks BD. I agree completely.

My biggest worry has always been the "adjustment" period after the rollover. We haven't even hit a period of time where .gov entitlement systems have been tested "live".

Yes, we stayed up during the rollover. Power is on, sewers are working. Water is available. *If* I was dreadfully worried about any of those things I would have been out of L.A., period. Bottom line was it was a major "question" right up to the end with NO real answer one way or the other. I gambled, stored water JIC and bought batteries for if the power decided to go down. The utilities weren't my biggest worry.

NOW is the time I worried the most about. Now through this whole entire year. Think...snowball.

We still live in the same world and we're still reliant on self-reporting. It would have been interesting to see the power go out and worst fears realized immediately but I'm pretty thankful that didn't happen. My gamble was that it wouldn't. But, we live in a time where instant gratification is the rule of the day and the drama has to be over in the second hour.

Little rivets...brittle, poor quality steel. That's what sank the Titanic. And, the lack of life boats are what essentially killed the majority of people.

We may never, ever really get the true story of how a major manufacturer closed or why layoffs and downsizing are necessary. The kinds of private sector problems that occur wont be reported to a Government run "reporting center". Why would this happen? It wasn't the case prior to the rollover.

This is like a long journey into the night. Keep your flashlights handy. The shadows you see may not be what they appear.

Just my .02"

Mike

=================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 02, 2000.


BigDog, while I don't see an 8.5 as possible at this point, I must commend you on a very well written and thought out post. Believe it or not, I am not perfect at my job. If I make a mistake, I fix it. I do not tell my boss if I can fix it quickly and if ther mistake will not have any impact on the Library where I work and the patrons that I deal with. If there will be an impact I will tell my boss and/or my coworkers who need to be aware of the situation. I see no need to go and purchase a full page ad in the New York Times saying

I MADE A MISTAKE! I TOLD A PATRON THAT A BOOK WAS AVAILABLE WHEN IT WON'T BE AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS

I don't see any need for programmers to announce to the world every minor glitch or inconvenience that pops up. And I doubt many here shout about their screwups from the top of the rooftops either.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), January 02, 2000.


BD,

On one level, I agree. We'll be dealing with Y2K glitches for the rest of the year. Business failures will most likely increase and I still think we'll slide into recession 2Q/3Q. This said, we have all the tools of civilization to address these problems. The power is on, the phone are up and the banks are open. Even if we surpass a '73-'74 recession, it will become increasingly clear the extremists like Paul Milne were wrong... way wrong. I have noticed a change in your posts during the past month of two. You dropped the dogmatic "The code is broken and we started too late" chant. You have left yourself a neat trap door by often saying you hoped I was right. During the month of December, you were downright charitable. Thanks.

"Preparation" is not a bad idea, Russ, but Y2K was not the "right" event.

The pessimists have made astute observations about the weaknesses of the "system." It reminds me of Karl Marx... a brilliant critic of capitalism. Marx was devastating in his critique, but, like the extreme Y2K pessimists, failed in his predictions. Unlike some, I have a balanced view of Marx. I actually enjoy his pre-'48 writings. I feel rather the same way about you. I'll never be a Marxist (or "Doomer"), but I can appreciate your contributions. Best of luck in the coming year.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 02, 2000.



I think Decker just called you a commie! And he admires that!

Just kidding. Now Alex Putin, there's a commie's commie.

I agree with the Dog. He is far wiser than I and a better writer. I couldn't have said it better. Let's run through some real business and real load issues before we declare a victory over the bug. Dewey did not in fact beat Truman.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.


Ken, I think you make many valid points. I have no problem writing that.

But, (and here's the thing that's always bugged me) the lights were on during the depression. The oil flowed during the depression. Lots of people made lots of money during the depression. Still, many, many suffered. And, it was a different world.

That's always been my position.

For me, we're just now edging up to the berg and we have only felt the second wave of really serious impacts that Y2k can cause. I'm just not going to let my gaurd down anytime soon.

You write that we will have a recession 2Q/3Q this year.

I think, "we were going to have that recession, anyway."

Why? Because this has been the longest period of economic expansion in our entire history. We're simply due. In fact, I think we're over due. We would have and will see a market slide within a few days/weeks regardless of Y2k. It's just the law of gravity.

Put a dash of Y2k economic disruption in there, mix well, and let's see.

I just don't think anyone can claim victory yet. It's far too early.

Prior to the rollover there were stories in the press here in So Cal regarding small businesses that were encountering date lookahead issues that caused serious disruptions. Two were in Fresno, CA. One, a technical entity that did geographic surveys the other a small business that did look ahead database work. Both were in severe trouble.

My question is this. Do you really think that problems such as these will simply disappear after the rollover in a country where 50% of small business did NOTHING to prepare for Y2k?

Personally, I think that was just the beginning.

Mike

======================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 02, 2000.


My Dear Mr. Big Dog,

I agree with you sir...That we are far from being through with the creature that has come to be known as Y2K. Unfortunately though! I still must, when I consider the human element in any equasion, elivate my rating to an infomagic.

With CNN broadcasting at this moment that the Russians are using chemical weapons in and around Grozny. And them having used F.A.E. devices last week on the bunkers of the rebels up in the surrounding hills.

I have tried to say this before.."No matter how serious Y2K gets, or what ever else it is. Y2K is a "trigger".

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), January 02, 2000.


There seems to be some grade inflation going on here. From my (hazy) recollection of the scale, it seemed that anything above a level of 6 pretty much required very serious disabling of some part of the Iron Triangle. So far, that doesn't seem remotely probable anymore. Still sticking to an 8.5 most likely means that whatever problems we read about (there should be thousands) will be *defined* as an 8.5 instead.

A thousand problems of reportable magnitude meets my requirements for a level 3, provided there doesn't appear to be a trend toward deterioration. If someone wants to call that an 8.5 instead, that's fine with me.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 02, 2000.


Big Dog, Great post with intelligent answers. I hope you are wrong on the point scale number. My vote is more in the 4-6 range, and no I am not consuming my preps. Maybe at some point I will whittle down to a weeks worth, but never less.

The issue is clear. We got lucky on the rollover, but the jury is out. There is so much more to all of this than software errors or embbeded systems. Its oil, the stock market, jit inventory, cyber and actual terrorism, and the geopolitical pot boiler outside our shores. Everything relates to everything else...

I always enjoy your posts. Thanks

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.



Big Dog & others,

Anyone know anything about date-sensitive embedded chips counting for 100 hrs. before they fail? I came across this idea on another thread. I'm not a programmer, just a clerical. Anyone know anything about a 100 hour 'boundary' involving embeddeds?

-- Jim Young (jyoung@famvid.com), January 02, 2000.


Bruce Webster DCY2K defined the scale of impact so that:

8 = Depression 1930s style. 7 = Severe recession 6 = Moderate recession 5 = Mild short lived recession.

With or with out Y2K I expect some sort of economic recession when the FED starts raising interest rates to pull back some of their "exuberant liquidity" issued. I look for real estate boom to slow down as mortgage rates rise. The value of the dollar vs other currencies is still an open issue.

I never did expect a 9 or 10 in the USA, $100 billion buys something apparently alot of fixes.

So the question in my mind is how severe of a recession might we see and it is style too early say.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 02, 2000.


Flint -- No grade inflation. An 8.5 is depression territory as I recall from my Y2K lessons with risk of governmental disintegration (risk, not certainty). Don't worry, I'm a kook and YOU'RE ALWAYS RIGHT.

As always, I can't wait to be fully wrong - just give it till May or so, will ya? Even if it is an 8.5, I'll give you the credit, I PROMISE.

Robin - Exactly. But it disturbs me that we might agree on something ;-)

Shakey - In fairness, non-Y2K events don't enter into any analysis scale of mine. However, they do enter into my rationale for "preps" along with Y2K itself.

Ken - The jury is still out entirely, IMO, on the usefulness of Y2K- specific preps. That is the point of this thread, though indirectly. If Joseph stored up in Egypt for 7 lean years, my lesser preps are not a bad idea. It is a fallacy to believe that "anything less than a serious Y2K impact requires no meaningful preps; any serious Y2K impact and you won't benefit from your preps."

Where I do agree with Shakey is that we are moving into an era where there may be several triggers that bring our systems down for a meaningful period of time. There are hackers the age of my sons who have the fundamental capability to bring the grid down or drastically mess the banking system. Capability does not equate to probability, but this the first time in history where such things have been possible to "lone gunmen".

My fundamental take on Y2K, whatever happens, is that an event in which experts on systems can so profoundly disagree indicates the entire poverty of our understanding of these magical structures upon which we are nearly entirely dependent. If it turns out these structures are more robust than we thought (or that Y2K was less serious than we thought, something far less positive for our future, in fact), a few of us (alas, it is likely to only be a few) must find far better ways to understand these systems for the future.

Ironically, though I am nearly totally disgusted with our Republic (as is well-known here), I might well offer my feeble services to said Republic in the next few years - so convinced am I that the REALLY bad guys beyond our shores are cooking up a nasty cyber-brew. How to stop them without allowing the Internet to become a Big Brother environment is a challenge for another day, say, 01/03/2000.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 02, 2000.


"My fundamental take on Y2K, whatever happens, is that an event in which experts on systems can so profoundly disagree indicates the entire poverty of our understanding of these magical structures upon which we are nearly entirely dependent. If it turns out these structures are more robust than we thought (or that Y2K was less serious than we thought, something far less positive for our future, in fact), a few of us (alas, it is likely to only be a few) must find far better ways to understand these systems for the future."

Once again BigDog you have posted an amazing series of thoughts.

Your quote above says what I have been searching to verbalize, for a long time.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), January 02, 2000.


And with this post, can we agree civility has now returned to this forum?

Somehow, we have become indebted to each other.

Our accessment of y2k issues, having brought us together, opened a door for civil discussion upon many serious issues confronting our country. Here's hoping we can stay together. The past year here has been a real learning experience. I will cherish the debates on this forum forever. My eyes have been opened to various opnions of others having far greater insite than I regarding the infrastructure that governs our way of life.

Did I prepare? You bit I did! Here again, I have no regrets. I'm prepared to remain so for it offers a simpler, hassle-free lifestyle, and a greater sense of security for my family. There are still plans I wish to pursue, the Lord willing.

We should ever remain alert, have our lamps full of oil, and be glad to turn the other cheek.

Sometimes its hard.....But CIVIL.

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 02, 2000.



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