Threshold events reported by C R High of Tenax Software Engineering from the collective conclusions of the TACE working group of the CCS [Center for Co-operative Solutions] as of Jan 2, 2000

A threshold event is required before spin on y2k changes from 'no problem'. Yes, the press are the lackeys of 'the powers that be' [TPTB] but, like a pack of mistreated dogs, when the discipline breaks, the whole pack will attack.

Threshold event is likely to fall into one of the following categories: death/serious injury failure at corporate level failure of a commonly experienced norm (loss of telecom satellite, atms)

Threshold event also masks the '10,000 cuts' that we will all have to live through. During this time, the biggest challenge will be to convince others that the data given to them by the computer is suspect. Currently, people believe computer generated data. It will take either a reported threshold event or the continuous reporting of small errors in such quantity as to depress the collective mood of denial and euphoria. This will require daily reporting of thousands of incidents or the direct experience [by large number of individual members of the public] of previously identified clarion call incidents [e.g. personal banking, credit card, energy purchase (gas, heating oil) or medical device failure].

The trend analysis charting from the CCS [Center for Co-operative Solutions] working group on threshold analysis and Y2K predicts that [within the USA] the first of the threshold events will be reported [sic, accurately and with meaning] after the 5th of January and before the 25th of Jan. Noting the resistance of the media, the actual estimates are reported below: Threashold event reporting 99% likely between Jan 2 and Jan 25 60% likely between Jan 3 and Jan 5 80% likely between Jan 5 and Jan 25

The actual predictions from the working group rank the likeliest threshold incidents to take place in [one of] the following areas ranked in order of probablility; *transportation *financing *energy (production) *energy (consumption) *manufacturing (most likely chemical production) *telecoms (including entertainment) Note that the ratings difference between transportation and finance were negligible. Author chose to list in this order out of personal perferences.

Note that events from outside of the USA direct reporting sphere are postulated to require that the incident include deaths in order to reach threshold status with US reporting industry.

Note that threshold events are defined to *not* include internet only reporting of an incident.

FYI: the beginning of a thousand mile journey is not complete with the first step. In spite of what your feet might like you to believe.

-- cliff high (chigh@vallier.com), January 02, 2000

Answers

Cliff,

Great post!! Love this line: "the press are the lackeys of 'the powers that be' [TPTB] but, like a pack of mistreated dogs, when the discipline breaks, the whole pack will attack." What does Tenac Software Engineering do exactly and what is your prognosis throughout January?...

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), January 02, 2000.

Sorry, Tenax

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), January 02, 2000.

Me thinks I hear the " fat lady " warming up in yon alcove ! There WILL be singing ... but most of it will be shrills, shreaks and " Oh , my God ! They were right ." Those without knowledge are confident of everything ; until in free fall . Happy landings , pollies ! Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), January 02, 2000.

Tenax SE does software engineering at several levels. We have patents on software which allows users to read at up to 2000 words per minute from ordinary computer screens. We have several new products in the process of being patented. We do y2k work at the database (client/server) level. We do programming in C, C++, PB, VB, perl, prolog, assembler, verilog, et cetera...we do plc development, as well as other forms of burnable code. We provide counseling on technical issues and social/business impacts to a wide variety of clients. (as an aside, some of our clients are building 'hit' lists of their competitors who are likely to experience enterprise level failurs, we are advising on this effort)

Currently Tenax chairs the CCS working group on trends analysis and y2k. Like the gartner group, we see the y2k problems developing over the course of the next two years. DB corruption will be the big news. Enterprise level failures (think IRS, Fortune 100s) will begin surfacing next week. These are predicted to come to light over the next 6 to 8 months. Our prediction for the peak of enterprise failures goes from Sept 2000 to Feb 2001.

Remeber, y2k is NOT a date problem, it is a data problem. Therefore failure(s) will occur when the data falls outside the acceptable range allowed by the exercising program (and the programmers' vision). Thus, failure(s) due to y2k are only partially predictable by date.

-- cliff high (chigh@vallier.com), January 02, 2000.