Y2K: I am impressed and pleased by the smooth transition into 2000 so far. At this time, there are no significant Y2K problems around the world, especially in the late starters. As a result, the risk of disruptions to global just-in-time supply chains, which has been my number one concern, seems less likely. Nevertheless, the risk remains that some of these systems might still experience malfunctions and failures in coming weeks. If no significant problems occur by the end of January, then I will concede I was wrong about a Y2K global downturn and change the odds of a recession-vs-expansion from 70-30 to 30-70. The IT community deserves most of the credit for the uneventful century date change. John Koskinen, the US government's Y2K man, was especially effective in coordinating the Y2K remediation process both in the United States and around the world. Looking back, I certainly don't regret my efforts to raise awareness. Y2K was a big problem. Hopefully, it has been mostly fixed.

COMMENT: If Y2K remains a nonevent, then why assign any odds of a recession this year? Good question. My year 2000 recession forecast was based on Y2K disruptions bursting the speculative bubble in the stock market. Of course, the market is less vulnerable if there are no disruptions. So, the bubble could get even bigger. High valuations may be justified to a certain extent by the New Economy fundamentals of strong growth with low inflation. However, tech stock prices are soaring to levels that only make sense in the "Yahoo Economy." If Yahoo is worth $400 per share today, why not $1000?

-- _ (_@_._), January 02, 2000

Answers

Way to waffle there Eddy.

Me, I wasn't expecting to go dark at rollover. That was never a huge probability. Instead, we will have problems going forward. Make no mistake, I think there were some high profile screw ups yesterday and day before, just won't make the news.

Time will truly tell. It ain't over til it's over.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

BTW - This was from his email list, so there is no link, although I imagine it's on his web page

-- _ (_@_._), January 02, 2000.

I guess those folks in Gambia don't count.

-- james hyde (hydesci@gte.net), January 02, 2000.

Looked at www.yardeni.com today... it's virtually devoid of any mention of Y2K. Looks like Ed's a bit embarrassed.

-- Just (anotherbuckeye@columbus.org), January 02, 2000.

Just anotherbuckeye, take a closer look at Ed's site.

There is an article (dated tomorrow) with a title that is relavant. Available to subscribers only.

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), January 02, 2000.