So the most obvious embedded systems problems did not bite. Either they did not fail, were remediated, were fixed by a reset, or were worked around. No power outages, no water treatment problems, no explosions at oil/chem plants, etc. So far, so good! My best case, but I'm still surprised.

Of course, we don't know about automation for companies that shut down over rollover, plus the nuisance stuff like security systems, building maintenance systems, etc. Not sure when we'll hear about this. Probably just a trickle of news stories until it affects the bottom line for a large company.

The next hurdle will be banks and stock exchanges on Monday. If Tokyo opens on schedule, we're probably OK in the rest of the world. I'm guessing that's what will happen, since banking and finance got so much of the remediation work, and started so early. That will be two down.

Third will government systems. These are probably not so great, but they also probably have a couple of months yet until failures would affect the general economy. You can do a lot of remediation in that time.

Last is general business software. I still expect a rush of PC sales and software upgrades starting Monday. If this doesn't happen, it's a major indication that small businesses will not be as affected as I've thought. Mainframe software got a lot of attention, so hopefully the big companies are ready. Not sure when we'll know. If there are no shortages by the end of the month, we're home free.

My bottom line -- If we get through this week without banking problems, and if oil and chem are really OK, the worst that can happen now is a supply-chain recession.

So I guess it's a Happy New Year after all!

-- Michael Goodfellow (mgoodfel@best.com), January 01, 2000

Answers

Michael:

Government problems wouldn't take a couple of months to affect the economy IF they are in entitlement programs, social security, or the Post Office.

Just a thought.

I hope it ALL keeps up this way. Just don't expect it.

-- mushroom (mushroom_at_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.