Yourdon and North's assessments of the risks were/are infinitely rational

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

[I am not an expert, but I have worked in middle and Sr. Management positions for Computer Associates, Rational Software, Compuware and Candle Corporation -- 4 major software vendors -- dealing exclusively with Senior IT management of Fortune 1000 companies(and some governments unfortunately) for 15 years]

...how you choose to interpret and respond to them is an individual responsibility...what I'm frequently seeing on this site is a misperception of what Ed, Gary and a host of others have really been saying. They have done an exceptional and courageous job of stating commonly understood facts and knowledge and then making extrapolations to outline reasonable risk scenario's. In everything I've read, the separation between what is known and their associated assessment of the risks has been clearly delineated. If in the final analysis(which we are not yet prepared to make) their(et. al.)predicted outcomes are not as accurate as they could have been, the blame lies with the corporate and govermental organizations who chose(for legal reasons) not to disclose the kinds of status/progress information that is routinely available to management for making just such predictions. But keep in mind that(as mentioned below), even with the normal tight coupling between project management and IT/Functional management, they NEVER, EVER predict the impacts and the outcomes accurately. And, Lest anyone believe that the potential impact of Y2K has now been realized, please, at least undesrstand the following and verify these facts independently. Then think for youself.

Even the more extreme risks articulated by Ed & Gary were/are based on logical extrapolation of decades of monumnental-mountains of accumulated data(no knowledge) regarding the processes, outcomes, failure rates, MTTR rates, ultimate outcomes and impacts from real business process system software/firmware projects across industries, governments and functions worldwide. The reality about even moderately complex projects is that the time, cost, function and quality dimensions NEVER, EVER, EVER go as expected. The worldwide Y2K project is(not was) unprecedented in Scope and scale. If anyone doesn't understand or appreciate the live or die significance of accurate dates in processing and in someway questions the reality of the problem just go to the IEEE web site and look it up -- it's very real. Another absolute reality about software projects is that the real testing is done in production. The original version of the now modified module is available for cutback when(not if) the new module fails repeatedly and is then repaired repeatedly in an iterative fashion as all of the functions used are exercised in various Real World combinations under various real world loads. The problem with Y2K is that there is no functional module to cut back to. You live with the problems(however severe) while attempting to repair the code. Another absolute reality is that repaired code introduces new problems at a predictable rate and so the iterative testing and remediation is further complicated. Another reality is that problems propagate through corrupted data and programs and across networks. Based on everything we know about software development, it is infinitely reasonable to assert that the WW Y2K project is by definition between 40 and 60% complete. The real testing now begins. What makes this completely unique is that there is no fallback module/system/application/network/OpSYS, etc. I only hope that the remainder of the project does not go how it the probabilities suggest it will. As I said, this is all common knowledge and well documented -- look it up.

May the New Year bring you peace and good fortune!

-- Wave (eades1@flashcom.net), January 01, 2000

Answers

Translation - realtime testing has just begun. No fallback possible. Patience glasshoppa. Or was that 1 trillion + dollars a waste of time?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

Top,

Until we see Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, I.R.S., to name a few, operating with precision and dependability, we are very vulnerable to an economic nightmare. Government accounts for a huge segment of employment in this country. Add to this the incredible amounts of money that is issued into circulation in the form of benefits and such, and the truly amazing unanswered questions as to where the U.S. is at this point remain unanswered. I have viewed my preps as not only "meal insurance" against interruptions in the supply chain, but as an economic hedge against rising prices in the months ahead. I cannot believe I am alone in thinking this way. Interest rates are going to march upward; housing may well take a hit. Mortgage brokers will be doodling on pads of paper as they realize there is less and less business(to name but one example of an industry vulnerable to rising interest rates).

Most of the really important problems, e.g. Def. Dept., pipelines that were shut down (and may be pesky to restart), will be kept from public view as a matter of national security.

And what about the many computer viruses that may be running around, looking for infrastructure to disrupt? Seems there are MANY more things yet unknown to hoist a victory flag over this country and y2k. (The only victory so far is preventing massive public panic;well, there is the additional victory of propaganda over a national audience--YECH!)

2 very alarming things to me are: 1)The overall complacency of our nation(not going totally unnoticed by folks like China and Sadam) and, 2) HOW EASY IT IS TO STILL MAKE PRUDENCE TO APPEAR LIKE FOOLISHNESS! An extra comment on this 2nd point is the incredible amount of folks reporting they feel foolish and embarrassed. If you really want to feel/experience both of these emotions, then chuck your preps. and begin running around trying to get folks who prepared for NOTHING, to accept you back into their "fold of foolishness". Then, when fallout begins to become apparent, you will realize the true meaning of foolish, embarrassed, and UNPREPARED!

Just as the coverage of y2k was so incredibly shallow and simplistic in the press for the past few YEARS, so too is the thinking that we are over the worst of y2k. Just cuz my T.V. works, doesn't mean it is "all-clear!". And one night of CNN pics. of lights on all over the world hardly gets me feeling even remotely confident that things will not be "so bad". (This line of reasoning wouldn't work on a 6 year old child.)

The most unfortunate side-effect of y2k roll-over so far (IMHO) is the "innoculation effect" that is occurring among some who prepped. How willing will they prepare or stay prepared for the unforeseen yet not on this nation's radar screen?

In closing, I will add that this nation is in and will remain in a window of vulnerability for some time. Just as a cancer patient never knew the day, time and hour that a tumor began to form within themselves, so too this nation appears to be generally clueless as to our vulnerabilities to attack and outright breakdowns in necessary infrastructure that are now present. When rollover occurred, every unremediated line of code became a cancer cell in this country's economy. Whether the Nation's "immune system" of bug busters can heal all of these conditions, before they grow into a sizeable tumor remains a HUGE question, at least to me.

I therefore will remain ready to "roll with the punches". Old habits are hard to break: Why let CNN and the "crowd of fools" do your thinking for you?

-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (JoeZi@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.


The fact that every country rolled over without a hitch is surprising, more interesting, we spent how much time and $ and some countries woke up a couple of months ago regarding this and appear to have the same result as America.

There are many questions flying around right now with regards to this. Also, with all these posts regarding Operating Systems, PC's etc... I am using an unmotified laptop (no patches), running 95 with NO issues????

Some folks are asking for an update from Ed on his feelings on where things stand? I think that's a great idea, Ed would you care to take a guess at what we just witnessed over the last 24 hours? Good luck to all, I will be lurking here for the next 72 hours or so, but after the start of business Tuesday, if all appears to be intact I will be on my way.

It's been alot of fun sharing and learning from this forum, thank you and good luck to all.

-- LALA (LaLALAND@aol.com), January 01, 2000.


Wave,

I am even LESS of an expert, but my experience with "attempting to manage software development projects" brings me to EXACTLY the same conclusion.

The real testing has now begun, or as Wired magazine once said:

"The future is in beta..."

G

-- G (balzer@lanset.com), January 01, 2000.


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