We had a foreshadowing of the future when Phil Greenspun dropped the forum a few days ago. On the east coast, we have power, phones and banking. I imagine Monday will be a challenging day and we'll hear about some wicked Y2K problems. The window for Y2K-related bank panics, social unrest, etc., is closing. There have been no reports of riots centering on local 7-11s.

Y2K has been the catalyst for this forum. Even though discussions wandered rather far afield, the ticking clock and immovable deadline gave the forum real relevance. As so often happens, this forum became a community. (In fact, several regulars felt I made a rather serviceable village idiot.)

The hue and cry when this forum closed demonstrated more than a concern about Y2K. People honestly missed TB 2000. During the past year, particularly the last week or two, there have been better sources of information. On the other hand, TB 2000 has a familiar feel, like a rough neighborhood with a smidgeon of charm.

The early reactions about Y2K are predictable. The sane regulars are breathing a sigh of relief. Andy and a handful of others are sifting world events to find a trace of Y2K catastrophe. And a group of hooligans are tearing through causing mischief. They may be "Pollies," but they ain't local. Yes, friends and foes, it's a definitely a neighborhood.

We could discuss Y2K fallout for years... but that is another forum. TB 2000 pulsed with urgency of a deadline, and a tremendous amount of speculation. We bickered about odds and stakes, but the perceived stakes were high. The "prep" conversations have limited relevance in an environment where we're mopping up the problems. Frankly, I just cannot see the same intensity of interest over who was right and who was wrong or what is or is not a Y2K problem.

So, what becomes of the forum? With Y2K in the rear view mirror, it might wither and die. Or the regulars might find another subject to focus on... another threat, or just a general sense of discontent about the modern world. It might turn into a forum for the fringe... a running dialogue about the new world order, international banking cabals and the evils of the Federal Reserve.

Whatever happens, it won't be the same old neighborhood. While we're drinking and basking in a smooth transition, we ought to raise a glass to the old forum. We all have different memories, but many of us called it "home" for awhile. I'm sure some will call this post premature. Call me a curmudgeon, but I thought the forum had its heyday in early to mid '99. Even so, I've been a regular, and I'll leave with mixed feelings.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 01, 2000

Answers

For the record, I think TB2000 will live on. Maybe not with the same intensity or focus, but as you said, it has become a community of spirits (just like Phil greenspun intended as his experiment).

I didn't agree with most of your views but the one thing I didn't do was consider you an idiot. Maybe a polly but never an idiot. At least your posts were mostly reasonable and informative (even if you did start a few flame wars).

It's still not over. Just not TEOTWAWKI. (THANK GOD!!)

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

YYYYYYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Ken - quite frankly noone gives a flying f##k what you think.

You continue to out yourself as the agent provocateur we all know you are.

Unfortunately some dumb schmucks fall for your prose hook line and sinker.

What are you doing here? What are you trying to achieve?

What have you ever done other than try and score brownie points on your intellectual inferiors...

Go get a life, get drunk fer crissakes, it's New Years' Eve and you are writing these pathetic essays you pathetic excuse for a man.

Oi vey!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

I wonder about this: If a bunch of us want to hang around and discuss, say contrails, will the pollies still hang around to give us headaches, or will they find some other group to disrupt?

-- (formerly@nowhere.zzz), January 01, 2000.

I only found the forum in the last 1/2 of the year, after I was on final approach for my 2-3 month hoarde. It was the best place to go, a big crowded pool hall, coffee shop, bar....where it all got hashed out.

Part of my own feeling of a let-down is that i know the possibility for disasters like earthquakes, stock market crashes, crazies do exist...Y2K was a focus for my feeling that our current have/have-not world is perhaps unsustainanble.

You know, I've also thought that Y2K was a secular version of chrisitan millenialsm.

After seeing the GMT rollover in London I almost cried for a second because I know our world is fragile and I'm glad we made it through the day. Kind of like a happy ending to the movie.

But the problem is that we have so many problems that need to be solved, and it was self-evident in our society that 95% of the people won't take the time to become informed or take responsibility for their own security.

Many will continue to "play the stocks" (as a recent radio ad for an online bank exclaimed) and believe that the world will go on like this forever. I'm surprised we made it this far, and I suppose that when the End of the world as we know it does come, most people will again be partying and spending, and a small remnant will be prepared. This has been a foreshadowing of events to come...

Thanks to Greenspun & MIT for a VERY valuable service. Without the push from Gary North & Company, we might have been in a much different situation tonight. The warnings were heeded, the bullet dodged. Thank G-d & his angels cause they probably helped too!

Let's stay prepared and alert.I'm thankful to all the programmers who worked hard to make sure the electricity & the phones stayed on & the oil (and wine) keep flowing.

But, alas, it will not always be thus, & a few of us are a little more ready for that reality. Thanks for the space to write.

Let's all have a great year, & try not only to have fun, love & happiness but also do something to make the world a better place...

Signed sincerely, INever Met a Cute Grrrrl I Couldn't Fall In Love WIth...

-- INever (inevercheckmy@onebox.com), January 01, 2000.

Have a "nice" life Ken. Ta.

Personally, I'll focus on sustainable business and renewable energy... because it's what makes sense... in a grid-locked world.

When I'm not so tired, I'll pull my thoughts together and post.

A very mixed-bag cyber-community was born here. What a wild ride!

But Ken, you of all people should know... not to count unhatched chicklets.

The world has quite a few challenges facing it. Including the "hidden" code. We'll see. Or maybe not.

Don't let your pantry down.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

Call you a 'curmudgeoun'?

You wish.

I call you 'Ghengis Thwarted'.

Love you, Ken.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), January 01, 2000.

Ken - thanks for your words. You have gone up in my estimation.
Andy - now I see why you prefer to cut and paste: not a spark of individual civilized thought. You have just gone waaay down.

Let's wait - TB2000 may not yet have served its purpose...

-- Y2KGardener (govegan@aloha.net), January 01, 2000.

Ken,

Your post touches home with me and I see it as being very civil compared to others. I have my knife in hand and am prepared to cut the umbilical cord. Personally, I am amazed at the lack of problems (not saying that there won't be any, just that we seem to be over the hump). I'm prepared to let it go. If things still look as good by Friday, I will disingage.

"It was real, it was fun, but it wasn't real fun."

NokternL

-- NokternL (nokternl@anywhereusa.com), January 01, 2000.

Diane? Hidden code? Give it a rest girl. You never understood it from the beginning. You don't understand it now and you won't on Monday or any other day. Go to school, get a EE degree and go to work for the power company for 20 years.

Ken you are right about the sense of community. I made that comment to someone a week or so ago. Same thing with the DB board. It's like moving out of the neighborhood where you know the people. You may not like all of them or respect them but you know them.

And Andy, You are a Moron and you'll never Get It. On anything.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), January 01, 2000.

Ken:

I think it'll take a while for the real implications to sink in. Already there is some expression of mystification ("how can this be?") and rationalization ("The media are covering up"), but neither will last. Those who were sincerely concerned about genuine unknowns well be increasingly relieved as the knowns come in, even though all of them won't be pleasant.

I hope some of the forum members will come away with a better understanding of the economy, and of the resiliance of the dominoes, and of the difficulties of modeling extremely complex systems and the dangers of assuming away the complexities to simplify the task.

But of course there are always those for whom y2k has been a minor arrow in their quiver of paranoia, distrust and alienation. For these people, all large organizations of which they are not a part will be viewed as hostile and inimical. No matter how wrong their assessment of y2k turns out to be, they have no choice but to bear their hardwired disaffection with life with their usual sense of determined self-righteousness.

For me, this last group has been by far the most interesting and educational. And there are times when I'm thankful that I can see no more than the shadow of the mind of the true cultist. I confess I haven't come much closer to being able to visualize what goes on inside someone who regards life from behind an impermeable barrier of suspicion, or from within an impregnable fortress of surreal convictions. But even exposure to this shadow has given me some insight into why some historical figures have done what they did.

I expect I'll post less and lurk more as the denoument plays out. I believe I posted more of my own words on this forum than anyone else, trying to deconstruct the fantasies and misguided extrapolations and interpretations so rampant here, and the reactions to my efforts have been instructive -- I've made far more enemies than friends, despite holding ill will towards nobody. So as you say, mixed feelings.

And I hope to meet you again. If your schedule permits, I'd be delighted to introduce you to a lovely locale. Take care.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 01, 2000.

I suspect that TB2000 will evolve...perhaps not as acrimonious, but just as valuable...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), January 01, 2000.

So Flint really is the Messiah.

Wow.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), January 01, 2000.

Midnight can be viewed as stage one of the effects of y2k. Unfortunately some information may not be available from relatively closed societies such as china for weeks. Russia exists across 12 of the 24 time zones. It was good news that reactors in the first 2 time zones appear unaffected so far. Of critical impotance will be the embedded chips in their gas delivery systems. They are major suppliers to Germany etc. of fuel.

The second phase will begin next week when businesses and gov't agencies that are shut down now start up.

The third phase will play out as any effects on supply lines that will be reflected in company earnings in the 1st quarter.

The news so far is very encouraging, but it's not over by any stretch of the imagination.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

Ken Decker...So far, you seem to have pegged the response at the rollover. I was hoping and praying you were right, but my own faith in the system was not as inspired as yours.

Andy you need some new writers... your monologues are substandard (suck), no offense.

I still think though, in the coming year we are all going to HATE dealing with computers and databases that have inaccuracies and "bugs" in them.

The rat race just got a little tougher... IMHO.

I am so glad utilities stayed on with no dips or spikes. My work will be there for me (oh joy) on Sunday morning.

Ken... cheers...

snoozin' SOUNDLY for the first time in 2 years...

The Dog

And NO, I'm no polly... ever seen a dog with a beak??? Really degrading... (snicker)

-- The Dog (dogdesert@hotmail.com), January 01, 2000.

There were no real bad fireworks on 1/1/00. (Except for a bunch of drunken idiots who were chucking lit sparklers from the Cahill Expressway overpass into the crowds below). But...

Y2k only really struck home to me after I read The Fifth Discipline, which explains 'systems theory', the business application of chaos theory. Y2k is systemic. Systemic collapses take time.

Yes, the immediate urgency of the problem is gone. That's true. But the fun is only just about to get going. Wait until the end of January...

Leo

-- Leo Champion (lchampion@dingoblue.net.au), January 01, 2000.

Ken

Well met, been a slice, having a good debate is hard to find and you and Flint are damm good. It is always a hard call which side to pick if folks safety is in doubt. And where to turn.

In my mind I would always choose the folk that don't panic, (andy put a cork in it).

It is hard to make choices when the responsibilities of others rests on your shoulder. If you have a known possible threat, it is prudent to prepare for it. But sound choices are not make in an emotional state.

It is even harder to make a judgement when the field of interest is not what you understand. While surviving is in my blood, technical matters are only understood when I am learning from others experiance. Regardless of what could of happened (Y2K) life would have continued. But if you know something that could have helped and you didn't choose to mention it because of the critique's (sp?) judgement then you are being intimidated.

As of this spring there was every reason to think that leaders (including Koskie) were getting worried. Then the great change happened. Power was going to be ok. Billing may be a problem but the system will continue to pump juice.

It would be interesting to analyse the Y2K data and look for pivital points in the time line.

One thing for sure Koskie should get a paid vacation. So should Diane :o) (and the rest of the sysops)

If there was no awareness there would have been a problem.

Over and above that you have learned over the last 9 months since we first met that TB2000 is a community not a single entity. We are a collection of views on a subject that didn't have a clear answer. Well that subject has now been demystified but that is still a drop in the bucket. There will be challanges faced in the future years that have everything to do with technology, we are childern dealing with our destiny. Not the least of which is our disconnection with our natural roots. We are insulating ourselves from that which we sprang and that is the biggest lesson we should take from Y2K. Technology shouldn't take the lead, it should be us. And situations are happenning that indicate we aren't leading but are following.

This is the true message that should have been taught.

Technology is not something that tech folk control, they have to learn disipline. And folks should educate themselves many of the issues that will confront us. This is never going to happen unless you get a common group together to debate the issue from all sides. And those sides may not be in agreement with you but it must be debated.

To me it would be a shame because the focus of the group has gone, that the group serves no purpose. As you know there are good friendships here developing regardless of the outcome. There are to many really smart folks in here to say that we have no purpose. That would be a tragic thing to have not recognized the human in the machine. Because if we don't recognize the human in the machine then technology will control us and we are going to be shit out of luck.

Where will all this take us? I don't know, but that is what evolution is for, to find a purpose where one doesn't seem to be apparent. We as a group are far more significant as a whole than apart. Here is to hoping we have a future. Because we are the future.

Well here are a few thoughts on the matter, I know my spelling is bad but hey, being an artist type is really tough on details :o)

Keep your liners dry folks. (someday someone is going to ask me what I mean by that)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), January 01, 2000.

Brian, what do you mean by, "Keep your liners dry folks."?

-- Bingo1 (howe9@shentel.net), January 01, 2000.

Put a cork in it?

Bollox.

Until we see Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, I.R.S., to name a few, operating with precision and dependability, we are very vulnerable to an economic nightmare. Government accounts for a huge segment of employment in this country. Add to this the incredible amounts of money that is issued into circulation in the form of benefits and such, and the truly amazing unanswered questions as to where the U.S. is at this point remain unanswered. I have viewed my preps as not only "meal insurance" against interruptions in the supply chain, but as an economic hedge against rising prices in the months ahead. I cannot believe I am alone in thinking this way. Interest rates are going to march upward; housing may well take a hit. Mortgage brokers will be doodling on pads of paper as they realize there is less and less business(to name but one example of an industry vulnerable to rising interest rates).

Most of the really important problems, e.g. Def. Dept., pipelines that were shut down (and may be pesky to restart), will be kept from public view as a matter of national security.

And what about the many computer viruses that may be running around, looking for infrastructure to disrupt? Seems there are MANY more things yet unknown to hoist a victory flag over this country and y2k. (The only victory so far is preventing massive public panic;well, there is the additional victory of propaganda over a national audience--YECH!)

2 very alarming things to me are: 1)The overall complacency of our nation(not going totally unnoticed by folks like China and Sadam) and, 2) HOW EASY IT IS TO STILL MAKE PRUDENCE TO APPEAR LIKE FOOLISHNESS! An extra comment on this 2nd point is the incredible amount of folks reporting they feel foolish and embarrassed. If you really want to feel/experience both of these emotions, then chuck your preps. and begin running around trying to get folks who prepared for NOTHING, to accept you back into their "fold of foolishness". Then, when fallout begins to become apparent, you will realize the true meaning of foolish, embarrassed, and UNPREPARED!

Just as the coverage of y2k was so incredibly shallow and simplistic in the press for the past few YEARS, so too is the thinking that we are over the worst of y2k. Just cuz my T.V. works, doesn't mean it is "all-clear!". And one night of CNN pics. of lights on all over the world hardly gets me feeling even remotely confident that things will not be "so bad". (This line of reasoning wouldn't work on a 6 year old child.)

The most unfortunate side-effect of y2k roll-over so far (IMHO) is the "innoculation effect" that is occurring among some who prepped. How willing will they prepare or stay prepared for the unforeseen yet not on this nation's radar screen?

In closing, I will add that this nation is in and will remain in a window of vulnerability for some time. Just as a cancer patient never knew the day, time and hour that a tumor began to form within themselves, so too this nation appears to be generally clueless as to our vulnerabilities to attack and outright breakdowns in necessary infrastructure that are now present. When rollover occurred, every unremediated line of code became a cancer cell in this country's economy. Whether the Nation's "immune system" of bug busters can heal all of these conditions, before they grow into a sizeable tumor remains a HUGE question, at least to me.

I therefore will remain ready to "roll with the punches". Old habits are hard to break: Why let CNN and the "crowd of fools" do your thinking for you?

-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (JoeZi@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

Mr. Decker,

If you're ever out this way, DO stop by for dinner.

helen, very relieved and thankful

-- helen (sstaten@fullnet.net), January 01, 2000.

For me, this forum is very much like a busy Student Union or Commons area at a college or university. Many people coming and going at different hours of the day; many different topics of conversation - some heated, some just plain silly fun; lots of 'regulars' who could be counted on to add their two cents and a few who would make a rare comment then sit back and listen again; and of course, how many folks who never uttered a word - just sat quietly in their chair and 'listened' to the conversations ebb and flow around them, taking it all in. Some days, the news is HOT, and the discussion is lively; other times news might be slow, and old topics are re-hashed and previous discussions are fine tuned.

It is a Student Union where students from all over the globe exchange ideas, information, real life knowledge with others, enabling the 'group' to perhaps gain a different perspective than from their corner of the world. People are exposed to other viewpoints they might not have considered, and gain a better understanding of their fellow man. As in any Student Union, there are a few professors, a few freshmen, several 'professional students' who learn for the love of learning, a few students who are trying to find themselves, a few really obnoxious frat boys , a couple of class clowns. Some of the students are here on a scholarship (have the financial means to prep), and others are putting themselves through themselves (making big sacrifices to prep). Some learn from their fellow students, some are know-it-alls and are boorish. Some drop out, some become professional students and never leave - just change their majors. There are some who really do 'learn' just as there are some who get the diploma without having learned much.

Just like hanging out in a student union, friendships are formed - some to last lifetimes - others are good, but disappear over time. I believe I've made some of both.

If this forum does go away, change considerably, or mutate into something else altogether, I'll hang my diploma from TB2000 University proudly on my wall here in my home office. I've had a terrific education, and one I know that will help me throughout the rest of my life.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

Judging by the above posts I guess it's OK to call Andy a moron now and not get trashed or deleted? I always liked ol' Ange, had the courage of his convictions. Way boring though. If he could write he'd be a terror.

Ken, You also thought the forum had it's heyday in early to mid '99:ie pre censorship.

-- Jim1Bets (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), January 01, 2000.

Now we may be much assured that Infomagic's (and Gary North's) systems of systems are unlikely to fail simultaneously worldwide. Individual system failures will probably have sufficient resources (expertise, replacement parts) available to fix them as isolated problems, not as futile efforts in a "devolutionary spiral."

We are not going to learn from y2k about the robustness of the system of systems, because the programmers apparently have hit enough of their targets to forestall that challenge.

We may still be able to learn something about the robustness of the individual systems. That learning which we tried to do together, as schoolmates in a great impromptu self-convened university, was what made the forum exciting.

Where else will we receive the inputs of information about systems that have y2k problems? Where else will we be able to discuss them with knowledgeable colleagues? Where else will we be able to watch with trusted others the recovery curves that those systems undergo?

Class is NOT dismissed.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), January 01, 2000.

I'm still enrolled, just taking a short "Winter Break". : )

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

You're a slubberdegullion, not a curmudgeon. ;p

Joking, I love your posts. Here's my hope: the New World Orderists, Rapturists and savage pollys will all go find something better to do, the number of posts will drop, but the quality will increase.

Monday is when Y2K starts. Not a year ago (sorry, Jo Anne), not at rollover. Monday, plus 3-6 months.

Please, please keep up the good work, news ferrets. :)

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

To All,

Agreed that this board has been a slice of life...it'll evolve into something different as time goes by.

Another thought...Ken and Flint have indeed been eloquent and convincing debaters in a forum that is stacked against them; they therefore receive my admiration and would doubtless be of great value in any of the pressing debates of our day...(though their lack of passion and a inability to "go out on a limb" makes their arguments both tedious and uninspiring.) I seriously doubt if these men are men of action; their forte seems to be in debate and conciliation. They would make fine politicians and legislators...possibly good judges, but ineffective leaders. I rather hear and follow Patrick Henry than James Madison. But that's my preference. To be sure, any man that can put up with some of the silliness to be had on this forum can't be all bad. Godspeed Ken and Flint.

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), January 01, 2000.