Please, pollies, or anyone else, explain this

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I'd like a little input from a confirmed polly about the apparent absolute lack of any problems whatsoever worldwide to include countries with pirated software and an avowed plan to fix on failure.

I'm not asking for input from trolls such as Y2K Pro or Andy Ray or others of that ilk with nothing worthwhile to add to the discussion.

I'm talking about Flint or Decker or Hoffmeister, or some other confirmed but concerned scofflaw, all of whom, I believe, are on record as expecting some problems, just none to the extent believed by the doomers. And all of whom have proffered some intelligent, cogent discourse.

How can you--or anyone--explain a complete and utter absence of any problem whatsoever. It makes no sense.

-- Vic (rdrunner@internetwork.net), December 31, 1999

Answers

Vic- How ironic!! I was asking the husband the same question right before I found your post!!!! It is very strange indeed. Methinks it is all the non Y2k problems clouding everything.

-- Jess (alisaunde@aol.com), December 31, 1999.

Vic:

I hear ya. Seems pretty odd -- I'm not buying it. Been trying to find positive reports from Japan, for example. Can't find any. It all looks too rosie to be believable, like an unexpected MIRACLE has occured on a HUGE scale.

I sure hope the toilets continue to flush!

-- TA (sea_spur@yahoo.com), December 31, 1999.


The argument that pirated software would end up being a problem for places like China never sounded logical to me. If they could pirate the originals they could pirate the updates. In the old days there was security in software so it was difficult to copy, now there is no copy-protection of any kind.

Getting y2k updates for pirated software is easy. People do it all over the world all the time.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), December 31, 1999.


I'll answer your question.

Most pirated software is shrinkwrapped software. Almost all of it newer than 10 years old. This type of software has virtually no y2k bugs. I know. I tested lots of it.

Embedded chips? Never an issue. Extremely few have this bug, mainly in older chips. So only the "advanced" countries with old chips would see this bug (like the US and Australia). And they've been remediated.

Mainframe software sometimes really DID have this bug. But they had years to fix it. So it got fixed. The exceptions are in a few places in third world, but these places aren't that computer-reliant to begin with. So we'll never hear about problems there, since they'll almost all be minor.

In short, the bug is dead. Everyone in the computer business new this, except, apparently, for Yourdon. But he has a reputation for making bad predictions, so maybe not a surprise.

Hope this helps.

-- jsielble (jsieble@msftnospam.com), December 31, 1999.


Chinese vely vely smart people.

>"<

-- SH (squirrel@huntr.com), December 31, 1999.



Why have we heard so much for so long and when the big moment comes, we have sound bytes of happy revelers and nairy a word of any type of failure?

Why do 3 scuds launch around the time of midnite in Russia..an event that would normally be page 1...and no mention is made?

Why does CNN have canned airline pilots making calls telling everyone nonchalantly how normal things are?

Why no mention on the mainline news of the Japanese nuke plant problems...also occurring at the stroke of midnite?

Why were 3 US plants taken offline prior to the date rollover?

Why are armed troops on the move in this country?

Do you feel sexy tonite..cause I think we're getting screwed...

-- Mike (mike110456@mailexcite.com), December 31, 1999.


To the fool above - bad code does not go away.

So far the embedded problems seems OK, i.e.no power failures apparently anywhere, no nuke problems even in Russia.

So far I don't but any of this. Yes I'm pleased that there is no loss of life etc., no I don't buy the uniform happy happy smiley smiley media spin.

Very early days - wait and see how banking clearing and settlement works out - that will be Monday night. Wait and see on enegy/JIT. Even then it will take time for problems to surface.

Bad code doesn't just go away.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 31, 1999.


The 'bug' is not dead; it just mutated. Someone also called me about the report on a nuke missile being fired in Russia -- also small power outage in south suburban Chicago....of course, it probably isn't Y2K related (the newest thing you'll hear...)

-- Mello1 (Mello1@ix.netcom.com), December 31, 1999.

Gawd! Are we forgetting that it is MIDNIGHT ON A FRIDAY NIGHT OF A HOLIDAY WEEKEND??!!! Other than meltdowns and explosions, what were you expecting??

For all we know, half the computers used by half the businesses in half the world could be toast. Tomorrow, your bank account could be toast.

G-i-v-e i-t a l-i-t-t-l-e t-i-m-e, a-l-r-e-a-d-y,

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), December 31, 1999.

Does this mean that Dr. Gordon, Ed Yourdon, Michael Hyatt, Dr. Carmichael, and Gary North (the list goes on), that their expertise and credibility is now null and void? Does this mean their research and knowledge that expands the whole spectrum of computer technology has played a serious joke and hoax on them? Y2K has not played out to the bitter end yet.

-- waiting and watching (waiting&watching@waiting&watchinggg.xcom), December 31, 1999.


I believe we subscribe to the mistaken belief that news flows unfettered from nation to nation. i'm no expert on politics, but simple human nature would dictate that those who make the crucial decisions would maintain a stranglehold on what is allowed to surface through the media. no nation wants to sponsor a international debacle at their own expense. only individuals who directly observe events in other countries, and who report on what they observed, can pierce this 'velvet curtain;' that, or rogue media.

-- Edie Yew (edu@gov.com.mil.org), December 31, 1999.

Give it up, mates.

I just pulled money out of the ATM in Sydney. (That's in Australia!). Worked fine. Checked my broker account. Worked fine. Called up and checked my phone account worked fine. All that connected to computers and all of them worked.

We don't need to wait until next week. The bloody puters are working just fine now.

So forget about this y2k stuff and go out and party. It's great!

-- Jackl (jackl@unsw.au.edu), December 31, 1999.


Jackl:

Why are you doing that at this hour. Have fun.

Best wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), December 31, 1999.


I musta been eaten by a big, fat meme...but I'm vastly suspicious. At the very least, I know two things: The mainstream messed us over by not reporting on both sides--and I prefer Doomers to pollies. Doomers are sweet, caring, cute, and look good in spandex.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 31, 1999.

Mike, Would you elaborate on "Troops on the move in our country"? Thanks, Trish

-- Robert Duncan (adler2@webtv.net), December 31, 1999.


Sigh.

We've been trying to say for some time that although those on this forum have the type and scope of embedded problems accurately described, they have WAY overestimated both the incidence and the severity of these problems. Like, we know that people get drunk on New Years and there are more traffic accidents than usual. But if people have spent two years screaming that *everyone will die* from these accidents, and it will spell the permanent end of transportation as we know it, then they look around after the event and just *can't understand* how life is going on as usual. The media must be covering it up, yeah, that's it.

Look how poor Mike is reacting here. Talk about withdrawal!

[Why do 3 scuds launch around the time of midnite in Russia..an event that would normally be page 1...and no mention is made?]

But they've been firing scuds in that action for a while, and these were no accident. Yes, it's a dirty little war, no longer headline news, and NOTHING to do with y2k.

[Why does CNN have canned airline pilots making calls telling everyone nonchalantly how normal things are?]

Because the hype has made people understandably nervous and concerned, and things *are* normal.

[Why no mention on the mainline news of the Japanese nuke plant problems...also occurring at the stroke of midnite?]

What? If there was no mention, how did *you* hear of this? They did have a few problems, all of them in the most minor possible category. They only got reported at all because of the intense publicity and scrutiny going on.

[Why were 3 US plants taken offline prior to the date rollover?]

For three different reasons, none of them consequential. But why take unnecessary chances?

[Why are armed troops on the move in this country?]

Because if it had turned out that things *were* bad, that's exactly what you'd want. Foresight is better than hindsight. Hell, if they *weren't* taking precautions, you'd bitch about that too.

[Do you feel sexy tonite..cause I think we're getting screwed...]

No, you're doing it to yourself. You're dredging up near-irrelevant details barely marring an overwhelming success, and *still* trying to blow things out of all proportion. It's my sincere hope that that at least *some* people here realize this is exactly the kind of fear mongering that caused them to misjudge the situation so badly in the first place. Because those who realize it can learn.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 31, 1999.


Some of us are getting screwed. Every new years, right after midnight.

Wait a minute! All you Christers keep telling me there is no such thing as evolution; now "the bug is MUTATING"? Huh? You can't have it both ways.

-- jumpoff joe a.k.a. Al K. Lloyd (jumpoff@ekoweb.net), December 31, 1999.


I'm still waiting for someone to answer the question. How is it possible--even to those 'pollies' who expected 'some' problems that we have had, virtually, none.

Although I brought it up, forget pirated software. Mea culpa. Across this vast expanse of what we call Planet Earth, we now are approaching a complete rollover with NO PROBLEMS WHATSOEVER.

Again, those 'pollies' who expected problems--but to a lesser extent than the 'doomers'--explain how this has happened.

Please be honest and admit that it make no sense.

-- Vic (rdrunner@internetwork.net), December 31, 1999.


Vic, the pollies are just as puzzled as we are.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), January 01, 2000.

I admit I expected a few more problems than have been reported. But I've been saying for over a year that the embedded problems have been greatly exaggerated. So has Malcolm, and Factfinder, and Dan the Power Man, and The Engineer. Among us, we have written a huge amount on the topic. Go back and look it up.

But IT systems are not my specialty (that is, I have no experience with them). All I can say is that I see the same thought process (sic) being applied to IT that I saw applied to embeddeds. Which makes me a bit more optimistic about those systems too, and always has.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 01, 2000.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ