Apparently Brad the s/w genius has made the infamous 'off-by-one' error. He thinks Y2K is over at the end of 1999 rather than 2000.

But hell, with all the misinformation about the 'new millenium' and 'entering the 21st century' you see the idiots on the boob tube squacking about, no wonder the boy is confused.

From c.s.y2k:

From: Bradley K. Sherman

Topic: Re: Paul Milne, 3 days till it's over

In article <946335394.166184@helium.cstone.net>, Paul Milne wrote: Wish I could be there to see your face.

Yes it is really annoying that after all the insults I have taken from you, you will just slink away.

Less than one week and your entire Y2k fantasy comes crashing down around your ears.

--bks

-- c.s.y2k jollies (@ .), December 27, 1999

Answers

Other than his loyal Band of Polly Trolls, no one's really taken Bradley Sherman seriously for quite some time now. Although, I must admit, his viewpoint elicits lots of chuckles and grins and an ever-increasing amazement that someone so seemingly intelligent could be so overwhelmingly steeeeeewpid!

-- Peanuts (PeanutGallery@ballpark.com), December 27, 1999.

YouKnowWho... Would you give me some hard facts so that I can stop worrying too. You see I am relatively new to life ... being only 48 and still have a LOT to learn. Eleven years in Intelligence and seventeen years as a Systems/Software Engineer taught me a couple of things but they did not teach me to predict the future... though sometimes I try. What I guess I am saying is there seem to be a whole lot of indicators we are headed for a very trying time and only your opinion that we are not. What this poor stupid old man needs from you is something besides an opinion... Could you do that for me?

-- (...@.......), December 27, 1999.

Bradley isn't saying things will be over in 3 days, he's referring to Milne's predictions. All of them so far have been wildly wrong, and there have been literally hundreds. At rollover, the predictions come due about the 3 billion deaths, the spiky haired mutants, the 100% cessation of oil imports, the deaths of the children of all who didn't move to the sticks and live off the dole, and many more.

And really, after 3 days the worst will be over, and we'll be dealing primarily (not totally) with the cleanup and recovery. If the worst is mild, then in a week people will have satisfied their curiosity about computer bugs and be on to the next scandal. And Milne can claim "I really meant *later*, honest I did" all he wants, but even the entertainment value of his dogged stupidity will have worn off, and nobody will pay attention.

As it is, if you wander over to csy2k you'll find that Milne is mocked by most there. After you're wrong *that* many times, what's left to do?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 27, 1999.

I was wondering if BKS was implying that the last warhead fired in WW III (aka: the Y2K War) would land on Jan 3.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), December 27, 1999.

Some of you people make me laugh. The heavy stuff doesn't even hit the fan in the first 3 days.

Week 1 Dec 31st-Jan 8th primary embedded failures (some water/sewer, chemical plants, manufacturing) - Unknown level of impact...could be a 1 (unlikely but possible) or a 7-10 (unlikely but possible) figure a general 2-3 in most areas but a 10 in others.

Week 2-14 The unraveling of the economy-JIT failures, processing, accounting glitches. Fuel goes through the roof... rationing is probable. Stock market contracts, puffs then implodes for 2 qtrs. minimum. Longer if fail scenarios in production facilities remain troubled. This will be a 5-9 on the scale. Oil and chemical plants hold the key here. 40% of small businesses have done nothing for y2k. 10% of these will fail outright within 6-12 weeks. 7-26 million will be added to the unemployment rolls by June 2000. Govt. steps in but can't stem the tide. National emergency declared in most states by mid Feb.

Week 15-52 Slow then moderate recovery mixed with new fail scenarios keep anxiety very high. Level drops some to 4-7. Market starts back on recovery but will take yrs to recover fully.

PS in two-three weeks I'll give my Kosky report and in spite of the above happening will give my happy faced all is well report.

-- Polly-Morphic Doomer (greenem31@aol.com), December 27, 1999.

Much of the debate on csy2k has revolved around the exchange of broadsides between Mr Sherman and Mr Milne. While I respect the obvious general intelligence of both, I think both of them are wrong. In my view, Y2K will be a sustained event of varying severity and intensity, depending upon what part of our world you are considering. BKS is the ultimate polly...articulate and intelligent, but in complete denial. The same applies to Mr Milne, except that he is a total doomer given to sometimes outlandish predictions. This is NOT the time to be pointing fingers at these guys. They have done wonders getting people to at least talk about the issue.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 27, 1999.

"outlandish" is a euphemism for "wrong". Which shouldn't surprise anyone who reads the "reasoning" behind the predictions.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 27, 1999.

Flint said

And really, after 3 days the worst will be over, and we'll be dealing primarily (not totally) with the cleanup and recovery.

Is that so, Flint? Can we revisit this thread in a month?

-- a (a@a.a), December 27, 1999.

Yes, a, it's nice to finally have a firm prediction from Flint. This is one that can really be tested -- and very soon too. I'll bookmark this for the future.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 27, 1999.

Flint, you still stand by your take proffered last January?

I'd printed it out and I refer to it regularly.

"I think we'll argue for the rest of our lives whether it could have been better or worse, and the consensus will be that it was bad."

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), December 27, 1999.