Canada set for Y2k, but no guarantees

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http://www.canoe.ca/LondonNews/lf.lf-12-27-0013.html

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Monday, December 27, 1999

Canada set for Y2K, but no guarantees

By JENNIFER DITCHBURN, CP OTTAWA -- Getting Canada ready for the year 2000 has been something like cramming for an exam.

Hour upon hour scanning thousands of lines, preparing for a test you've never laid eyes on, but that you have a pretty good idea about.

Just when you think you've dotted all your i's and crossed the t's, the teacher tosses you a curve -- those one or two pesky questions you forgot to study for.

That's what Canadians have to worry about as the great year 2000 test kicks off on Saturday -- the small, insidious gaps in the country's efforts to prepare its computer systems and equipment for the so-called Y2K bug.

Canada is generally considered a world leader in Y2K readiness. The lights aren't likely to go out, bank machines probably won't go on the fritz and the water will probably be safe to drink.

Along with Americans, Australians and the British, Canadians can count themselves among those least likely to experience Y2K computer troubles.

The final report of the National Contingency Planning Group, released last week, suggested that all of the country's most important services will carry on as usual in the new year.

That includes such areas as telecommunications, banking, transportation and power. In fact, it's hard to find anyone in the country who won't say they're fully prepared for Y2K.

But while the federal government conducted an ambitious series of surveys to monitor how important industries were doing, the responses were not independently verified.

"There's an awful lot of reasons to fib about the fact that you're ready," says Y2K consultant Michael Fletcher.

"You don't understand the problem, you haven't tested it, you've got some problems but you're quite confident you'll finish them on time, or you just don't want to look like an idiot," Fletcher said.

Anyone working on eliminating the year 2000 bug will acknowledge there is virtually no way to absolutely guarantee they've caught every last error in the system.

"The general indication is that people have made adequate preparations, but there is just no way that all the changes that have occurred can go in with complete success," said Paul Rummell, former chief information officer for the federal government and now an Internet products developer.

"There will be human error . . . in all these new systems that have been put into place, or the fixed systems that have been put into place."

The Y2K bug stems from older computer programs and chips that used only two digits to denote the year. When the calendar turns to 2000, some computers might interpret the date as 1900, resulting in problems ranging from calculation errors to outright failure.

Companies and public agencies have been working to check their systems for the bug and in some cases rewrite computer programs to eliminate it.

The weak points in the Canadian chain are those that began this work too late or didn't bother at all -- some small and medium-sized businesses, charitable organizations, small farms and some public transport systems.

A Statistics Canada survey conducted in February and March suggested 13 per cent of small organizations polled had not taken any steps to deal with the year 2000 problem.

Ontario's auditor general said last month that 56 of the provincial government's most critical systems weren't being debugged fast enough.

Canadians who think the truth will be revealed to them around midnight before Jan. 1 should think again.

"I've been talking to a lot of companies and the one key message I need to leave with them every time is that the year 2000 has 12 months -- it's not a weekend, it's not 12:01, it's 12 months long," says Michael Smith, a senior manager at Ernst and Young.

The U.S. research firm Gartner Group predicts 55 per cent of Y2K-related glitches will occur later in 2000, with another 15 per cent in 2001.

Major disruptions in other parts of the world could take some time before they ripple into our own supply chains and stock markets.

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), December 27, 1999

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http://www.ottawacitizen.com/city/991227/3349977.html

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Monday December 27, 1999 Share This Story With A Friend

50 % prepare for Y2K disaster

Ottawa residents use lessons learned from '98 ice storm as Jan. 1 nears

Colin Grey The Ottawa Citizen

Ottawa residents are putting the lessons they learned from last year's ice storm to good use in hunkering down for a possible Y2K disaster, according to a poll commissioned by the Citizen.

A large majority of residents discount the possibility of a catastrophe. Nevertheless, exactly half of local residents say they plan to -- if they have not already -- stockpile food and spare generators, or make other preparations by the time their digital clocks flash 12:00 on New Year's, the poll shows.

"I would expect that the sort of things that people are doing are quite influenced by the ice storm," said Stephen Kiar, senior partner at Compas, which conducted the poll. "It's like the ice storm was kind of a dry run."

As the day of reckoning approaches for the most-hyped event of the year, most residents seem to believe the assurances of governments and major corporations that they have made adequate preparations for the Y2K computer bug. Despite a flare-up of fears regarding millennial cults and terrorist attacks on New Year Eve, Ottawa residents appear to think such major problems won't take place here.

"They're certainly not panicked, and most aren't expecting anything to happen, but they're hedging their bets," Mr. Kiar said.

Despite the fact 79 per cent of residents think major disruptions in Ottawa are not very likely or not likely at all, according to the poll, 50 per cent have made or are planning special preparations for Jan. 1. The remaining 50 per cent said they have no plans.

Only five per cent of residents think problems are very likely, and 15 per cent said they are moderately likely. One per cent said they did not know.

Most preparations taken by people include setting aside supplies of necessities. Of those who have taken action, 67 per cent have stashed extra food, 51 per cent have stored reserves of water, 23 per cent have stockpiled batteries and flashlights and 17 per cent have stockpiled candles.

Those planning to take action have similar priorities. Fifty-six per cent plan to stockpile food, 44 per cent water, 11 per cent batteries or flashlights and 22 per cent have stored candles.

The major difference between the two categories is that more residents plan to set aside cash reserves (24 per cent) than have already done so (12 per cent). Older residents, university-educated residents and women are more likely to have taken steps to prepare, the poll shows.

Where women are more likely to stockpile food or take domestic preparations, men are more likely to focus on firewood, improvements to computers or fuelling their cars, the poll shows. For instance, 13 per cent of men who have taken action have upgraded their computers to be Y2K compatible, compared to five per cent of women.

"They're not thinking that anything is likely to happen, but they're being prudent and taking action anyway," Mr. Kiar said. "There's been so much hype about Y2K and people are working on solutions."

The poll of 300 Ottawa-area residents was conducted Dec. 17 and 18. It is accurate to within 5.8 percentage points, 19 out of 20 times.

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), December 27, 1999.


50% prepare for Y2K disaster (Ottawa)

Ottawa residents use lessons learned from '98 ice storm as Jan. 1 nears

Ottawa residents are putting the lessons they learned from last year's ice storm to good use in hunkering down for a possible Y2K disaster, according to a poll commissioned by the Citizen.

A large majority of residents discount the possibility of a catastrophe. Nevertheless, exactly half of local residents say they plan to -- if they have not already -- stockpile food and spare generators, or make other preparations by the time their digital clocks flash 12:00 on New Year's, the poll shows.

"I would expect that the sort of things that people are doing are quite influenced by the ice storm," said Stephen Kiar, senior partner at Compas, which conducted the poll. "It's like the ice storm was kind of a dry run."

... cont'd at ...

L ink

If that many in Ottawa are preparing, hopefully an even higher percentage are doing so in my rural area many miles SW of the city. :-))

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), December 27, 1999.


Hey Homer, great minds think alike. < vbg >

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), December 27, 1999.

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