Does anyone think the tendency to shut down systems, transportation, factories, etc., etc. right before midnight at various local times may actually precipitae problems. Any widespread deviation from the normal course of events might introduce unforseen instabilities in our interrelated systems nationally and internationally.

-- a zero (monitoringtb2000@waitingfory2k.net), December 25, 1999

Answers

Well.. of course it may. Utilities have been saying this for some time now. But thanks for repeating it here. Maybe it will sink in eventually... at least by June 2000.

-- Jake (Jake@Reality.com), December 25, 1999.

But the announced shutdowns are only a variation upon the normal holiday shutdown or slowdown process. So it isn't like someone is going to pull a big wall switch and shut down a lot of systems that aren't normally shut down. There are going to have to be lots of individual parts of factories shut down one-by-one.

These additional shutdowns are going to occur gradually just like the normal holiday shutdowns which will occur next Friday. And just like what occurred this Friday. Same for the start ups on Tuesday. Not every wall switch is going to make contact at the same exact instant. So just as the load drop off will be spread out, the load increase should be just as gradual.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), December 25, 1999.

WW:

Not in my experience. It has been a long time since I worked as an engineer in a continuous process factory. But back then, most of our worst problems occurred when we shut down or started-up. Things may have changed; but I doubt it. It will be a wild and exciting time in many chemical plants and refineries. Reference "March Point" or "Anacortes, Washinton" if you want an example of the phenomenon. This is just a statement of fact; not a prediction.

Best wishes,,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

I previously served as Supervisor in a plastics factory (11 years, large brand name) in the midwest. We would sometimes shut down for a three or four day holiday weekend and then do a start-up for normal production. Plant size was 1100 employees, salaried and hourly.

The first day was a total nightmare for techs and supervision. Scrap rates for these parts (total facility) for the first 24 hour period would run upwards of 70%+. The next 24 jours would see a scrap rate decline to approximately 50% total plant. The third day we would settle to about 15 to 20%% and finally assume a normal overall of 3%- plantwide after some 7 to 9 days. All this provided we went down "cold", which was actually dropping the machine temps from 375 degrees to a maintenance temp of 200 degrees.

Labor efficiency was out the roof for the first week because you can't send people home on a wide scale. This is money never recovered. The machine has to run itself out (dirt, burnt material, etc.) all the while the techs are making adjustments and attempting to purge the machinery. One shot might be good, the next bad. The people had to be there to process the good ones until the equip. settled.

Anyway, without giving you a tour, I am trying to say that down time is MAJOR lost dollars for some, if not all companies. Some, much more than others because of the short-term implications as I described for example, not to mention lost machine time resulting in delayed shipments, short trucks, lost business to other vendors, etc, etc, etc.

MANY consequences and millions of lost dollars (for one company). On a national scale, this could disrupt the market; definitely on the short run, possibly the long haul depending on the length of time in question. Good thread and I hope to see more analysis on this issue.

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 25, 1999.

Mad Monk ask this question last week.

He got an answer from Shakey. who based on past threads has a Boat load of hands on experience with power plants, nuclear plants etc.

Shakey offered an interesting answer in that some chips once the plant is taken off line over the roll over--WILL NOT START BACK UP!!!!

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Oh no doubt that shutdown is a system stress on many different types of systems. I used to dread shutting down a multi-cpu system because re-establishing the synchronized drum memory speeds on those antiques would take the better part of one whole day.

Considering the alternative of exposing myriad embedded devices to the instant of rollover and the highest possibility of failure, a lost day or week of production could be a bargain.

I think that the demand for replacement devices (PLCs & SBCs) is going to far outstrip the available supply and the backlog wait is going to be unbearable. If a firm can avoid having a device lock-up due to experiencing all zeros during the instant of rollover, even if returning to full operation takes a week they're ahead of somebody waiting a month for a replacement embedded system.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), December 25, 1999.

re-establishing the synchronized drum memory speeds on those antiques would take the better part of one whole day. WW, The best way to know if those old "drum" memories were up to speed was to listen to them, when they reached a certain pitch they were ready.

Now you really cannot tell me that any of those are still in use anywhere, can you?

The technology today is completly different so you cannot use that to judge what will happen today. I've worked where a power drop would knock outa dozen mainframes of various ages ant types, including one with the drum memory you talk about, many times a year and we would just go fire them back up again and get them running with little or no problems at all.

The equipment I worked with had a lot of systems (lets drop the word embedded shall we?) with moving parts which are subject to failures and a much higher rate than computers that are geared to "information" with few moving parts, and they survived just fine.What exactly is supposed to "break" on these computers that do nothing but process data anyway and what is supposed to cause it?

Personally I believe people stating computers will have failures from getting shut down, especially normally, is just speculation.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), December 26, 1999.

Cherri [or Cherris]:

I wasn't talking about computers. Have you ever shut down a blast furnace, or tin plate or zinc plate line. The digital control systems are not a problem. Everything else is. Boy those feed lines in a refinery; and those coking facilities. No computer problems; but other things happen. It is just my experience that stuff happens when you shut down or start up. As I say, it may have changed.

Best wishes,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), December 26, 1999.