Sniped from a white paper report by the late Harlan Smith.

The Perils of the Present Full Remediation Approach

Full Remediation is at High Risk of Failure

Some Individuals in the USA are Considering Flight from the City

The reasons I strenuously object to the ideas of "individual survivalism" and "safe haven alarmism" are as follows:
It focuses on abandonment of cities, which is not even possible for most people in most geographical areas. The motivation to do this is that cities are not viable without the utility, communication, transportation etc. infrastructures remaining viable. A city without a very complex supporting infrastructure cannot function as a city or perhaps function to support even a small part of its normal population.

This then implies that huge populations must move from the city to the country. While perhaps possible, this would be an immense logistics challenge. It is not an option at all in most parts of the world.

Without countrywide coordination, that could only be accomplished by the national government and a lot of intense preparation, this concept could never work even in the USA for the majority of the population. Grass roots efforts, although worthy, will just not move fast enough to cover more than a fraction of the population.

It ignores the fact that our present populations depend on a highly-computer-dependent "food generation" capability, that would also have to be replaced with something very different, also creating huge logistics problems. This would not be possible in most areas of the world and would likely be unsuccessful in the remainder.

Even though it is contemplated by some individuals in the USA, it ignores the fact that if cities are abandoned and the teeming hordes flee to the countryside, there will be no safe haven anywhere on that continent.

It ignores the fact that all of us, and particularly those with serious medical problems, are very dependent on sophisticated medical care and abandonment of our utility infrastructure will pull the rug out from underneath our ability to maintain the capability to provide this care.

It ignores the problem of providing medicines and drugs to those dependent on them for survival and/or quality of life.

It does not provide a good recovery base in terms of utilities, personnel and complete repair/remediation environment to restore our infrastructure.

It prematurely focuses on "contingency measures" (which are bordering on an oxymoron with regard to Y2K) as opposed to "mitigation" which is where almost all of our energies should right now be concentrated.

It ignores the fact that we must maintain a robust economy and military infrastructure to maintain protection from foreign predators.

It ignores the fact that we have built a Pandora's Box of nuclear, chemical and biological hazard sites and only the presence of a vital infrastructure keeps the lid on that box. We have set ourselves up for this and we are stuck with it.

-- sandi (sandihere@mailcity.com), December 25, 1999

Answers

http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2kconf/papers/paper16fp.htm

-- sandi (sandihere@hotmail.com), December 25, 1999.

So if "everyone" can't move to the country, "everyone" must therefore stay in the city? Sorry, that reasoning doesn't work any better now than when Harlan posted it before. I'll stick with my contingency plans instead, thanks, as there is nothing I personally can do to prevent the disaster.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 25, 1999.

Harlan Smith: We're trapped like rats!

Me: Speak for yourself rodent! I'm gettin' while the gettin' is good.

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), December 25, 1999.

It ignores the fact that those of us who have moved to the country are armed and don't want strangers (who knows how dangerous?) coming up our driveways?

Don't come up my driveway unless it is broad daylight and you're clearly unarmed.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), December 25, 1999.

What Dog Gone said.

-- goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), December 25, 1999.

Harlan's logic makes a lot of sense on a global or citywide scale. But that's always been true for virtually every level of preps including filling your gas tank during these few remaining days. So what! Wasn't ther American Revolution faught with about 3% of the population? The doers will do, and the rest will be watching the Superbowl, i.e., if there is a game this year.

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Ya know, we'er all gonna die some day, and if it's inevitable, and you can see it comming, say because you'er out of your essential medicine's or something else thats essential to your life, God, grant me the wisdom to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difrference. Have courage, do what you can, make a difference for your being here, and then, knowing that you have done all that you can do, accept your death.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't see me dying of old age if it's a 10 and we'er evacuating the cities!!!!!!!!!!

-- Zeda (rickster@n-jcenter.com), December 25, 1999.

Don't come up my driveway (.) unless you've got something to barter with. When I read stories about people who survived WWII and the refugee camps, I'm encouraged.

-- ~~~~~ (~~~@~~~.xcom), December 25, 1999.

Sorry, that first wisdom should be "serinity", the peace that comes from knowing that you have done all that you can do.

-- Zeda (rickster@n-jcenter.com), December 25, 1999.

"While Pop and Granny hobble on down the driveway, clearly unarmed (snicker), Bubba, you and JimBo (heehee) sneak up behind the house. I'll signal you from yonder booshes when it's okay to open fire. (sheshsheshshesh)"

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Seems to me we've been set up to maintain "the machine."

What "they" say: Don't worry-be happy-no problems.Three day storm, yada yada yada.

Translation: Maintain status quo at all cost.
Individual survival be damned! It's all in the numbers.....

-- sandi (sandihere@mailcity.com), December 25, 1999.

Sandi, Lucky that we're kind of quirky machines, sometimes listening to a slightly different drumbeat. My concern is not the maintenace of the status quo.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Lived in the country a few years ago. Too many "macho guys & gals" playing "pioneer" on their 1/2 acre lots. Going to church on Sundays & ordering from Frederick's of Hollywood. Having to pay for my speeding ticket in cash, on the spot. I'll take my chances with the mosaic of the Big City where the artists, rich, blacks, browns, asians & unafraid whites live. Watts & Florence/Normandie lasted for a few days. But the genocide of Native Americans & colonialism in India & Africa lasted for decades, if not centuries. Based on that track record, I feel safer in the city.

-- INever (inevercheckmy@onebox.com), December 25, 1999.

Sandi,

Noble thought that you should stay for the greater good of humainty but what it all boils down too, is that when in danger, people ONLY care about CYA. Survival mode and to each his/her own fate. Sad, but so true. Very few of the "noble" are still alive that have been martyred ***wink***. Not speaking for myself, just the human factor in general. What will I do in that perilous time ? CYA - myself and family. If I can, I will help another.

Maybe not "quite" on topic but done never the less. Thanks.

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 25, 1999.

INever: Anyone who feels safer in the city than in a rural area is going to die rather quickly in a Y2K crisis no matter where he is. There are many, many decent, hardworking, honest, independent folks in very small towns and rural areas. They are community oriented, they know and respect their neighbors, and they're not angry, resentful and sullen like many inner city types are. I've lived in the very heart of an inner city and I can tell you it was a dangerous, rotten, violent, brutally primitive place.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 25, 1999.

INever

>Lived in the country a few years ago. Too many "macho guys & gals" playing "pioneer" on their 1/2 acre lots. Going to church on Sundays & ordering from Frederick's of Hollywood.>

Don't judge all who live in the country by the standards you created from your short stint at roughing it in the wilds a few years back. I don't know what "Frederick's of Hollywood" is nor do I care. I live on my 160 acres in a remote location in the midwest and somehow manage to do it on less than $10,000 a year. I've also spent several years living without running water or electricity at another location, and lived to tell of it. You'd better hope Y2k is only a bump in the road or your comfortable city life will quickly end.

-- (midwest@rancher.com), December 25, 1999.

You're right, I hope it's only a BITR, like the mid 70s, or the 30s....any worse than that & it's hard times for ALL, city & country mouses. By the way, there are plenty of rotten people in both city & country. Right?

-- INever (inevercheckmy@onebox.com), December 26, 1999.

Both extremes have problems.

"Every man/woman for themself" clearly has problems. On the other hand, a highly specialized Liberal Democracy (Socialism) is too much like the book "1984" for my taste.

It would be nice if the pendulum could swing back enough that people were a bit more self-sufficient, and didn't rely on other people's taxes so much.

-- Anonymous999 (Anonymous999@Anonymous999.xxx), December 26, 1999.