OIL - Gordon, RC, Downstreamer - help me out here, this cannot be true can it?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Saw this on a.n. other forum...

"December 23, 1999 -- EIA data released on Wednesday shows the refining industry in a holding pattern.

Inventories have been drawn down low enough to put the oil companies in a good position for end of the year taxes. The low stock levels also make it possible for refiners to load up on lower priced crude oil and products when Y2K blows over and everyone is satisfied that there will be no major disruptions in the supply chain."

http://www.oil-gasoline.com

Sounds like the US oil companies have, in effect, no contingency plans for Y2K, save for fix on failure. LOL, and keep your fingers crossed...

In other words THEY ARE BETTING THE FARM THAT Y2K WILL BLOW OVER!!!!!!!

They are PURPOSELY DEPLETING THEIR STOCKS FOR END OF YEAR TAXES!!! JUST LIKE THE INTERNET.COM FAT CATS THAT WON'T CASH OUT NOW WITH THEIR PROFITS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO BAIL ON THE 4TH OF JANUARY WITH ALL THE OTHER LEMMINGS!

They expect to LOAD UP on cheapo post-y2k oil...

Help me out here... are these fat-assed highly paid oil execs reading the same information I'm reading???

Sorry for the big caps but this is pure BS, they should be LOADING UP on supplies so we as a country can weather y2k if it's a doozy.

UNBELIEVABLE

======================================================================

This is the story...

December 23, 1999 -- EIA data released on Wednesday shows the refining industry in a holding pattern. Inventories have been drawn down low enough to put the oil companies in a good position for end of the year taxes. The low stock levels also make it possible for refiners to load up on lower priced crude oil and products when Y2K blows over and everyone is satisfied that there will be no major disruptions in the supply chain.

Demand for crude oil in the US was soft last week. Refiners in PADDs 1-4 held inventories flat, purchasing the minimum necessary to sustain operations. In PADD 5, refiners drew down stocks by reducing purchases of domestic crudes. Refinery postings for West Coast crude oils were decreased 50 cents per barrel across the board late yesterday as demand continued to languish.

GOTO Current Forecast and find out about disappearing US Strategic Reserves!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999

Answers

Andy -- how about another theory.

We know that the Clinton administration has been freaked for the last 2 months about the increasing price of oil. I suspect they have been using every trick in the book to plead/force/blackmail/bribe the oil companies to hold down on price increases before the beginning of the year.

With Y2K fears out there, and and no increase in prices, of course inventories are being drawn down. This article is just a pleasant face on an unpleasant reality.

Here is my guess what the deal is: if the oil companies just hold off on price increases and keep their mouth shut about Y2K, they get to buy from the "strategic oil reserve" at el-cheapo prices. I bet the government has given permission for the price to go through the roof in 2000. It is all a deal to keep everything quier until 1/1/00.

A very good find. But what are you doing up so early on the internet?

My excuse is that I am Jewish and this is just another weekend. As usual, our daughter (age 4 and blind with little sense about time of day) is up and alert and asking to be "in the computer room with music on". So here I am plugged into y2k.

You know what our problem is? We find it really, really hard to say "Happy New Year". Any alternative?

-- David

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), December 25, 1999.


Doesn't sound right to me ... I doubt they are dumb enough to take that risk ... Take a look at the US Petroleum Stock level graph at the end of the Energy Situation Analysis Report: Y2K December 23, 1999 (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Link

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), December 25, 1999.


Hi David, I'm freelance and can do a little digging on the net in between testing... I'm open to all theories, however I understand the SPR will only last for 150 days or so and is "dirty" oil - not the best quality. I've heard about an oil drawdown from other sources but this is the first time it's been spelled out for me. A recent API report I believe showed that there were lower than normal stocks... once word gets out that the SPR is being depleted gasoline and heating oil will surely go through the roof, no?

This is too weird, the futures and options markets in nearly all commodities are not factoring in y2k disruptions at all.

Thanks for the link, I do believe this report is accurate however.

Later,

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.


I was wrong - just 60 days supply...

"The U.S. government set up a reserve in 1975 to provide an emergency supply of oil in the event of a crisis, such as the Arab oil embargo of 1973. It currently holds about 573 million barrels of oil -- equal to two months of imports -- according to the Energy Department. The U.S. has tapped the reserve only once, in 1991, during the Persian Gulf War."

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.


You know what our problem is? We find it really, really hard to say "Happy New Year". Any alternative?

Not really David - just say it anyway... you know I've now pretty much come full circle, I became a GI very quickly, could grasp the interconnectedness etc., then I became more complacent and hopeful, but now all the information I'm hearing, much from insiders, is pointing to an unholy FUBAR situation.

I've seen manipulation in Gold and Silver that would blow your mind this year David - and the situation in metals just mirrors the corrupt endemic putrid pus-bag (thank you Richard) of a situation we now find ourselves in.

Give your daughter a big hug from me!

"As a net is made up of a series of ties, so everything in this world is connected by a series of ties. If anyone thinks that the mesh of a net is an independent, isolated thing, he is mistaken..."

Buddha

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Sufi Prophet Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan's prophecy (Complete Works, 1922 I, pps. 158-9)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.



There are four interesting Y2K reports here at the US EIA site.....

Link

Obviously they have convinced themselves that they can control any shortages from the slack capacity available in producing countries and that Y2K's effects will be minor. What is hard to understand is why the level of petroleum is the US system is below the lower range for this time of year. Can it really be just greed? After all, if you don't have it, you can't sell it.

This link is the one to bookmark to follow the new reports as they are issued 2 or 3 times a week.

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), December 25, 1999.


Thanks John - there was a recent announcement that a group of countries had an agreement to boost supplies quickly post y2k if needed - to me this is just BS platitudes - they are not taking into account the total supply chain, not limited to but also including ports, shipping, navigation, pipelines, loading, unloading, trucking, refining, electricity, infrastructure, telco's et cetera et cetera.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.

there was an article on this forum or GN's a few weeks ago about how the oil companies draw down to minimums this time EVERY YEAR due to inventory taxes. And that this year would be no exception. Do you REALLY think the oil companies care if you run out of heating oil due to y2k? They will no doubt have every pipeline running full at the stroke of midnight and every truck driver will be hitting the road Jan 1....but not before!

Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), December 25, 1999.


Taz, I appreciate your point...

"Do you REALLY think the oil companies care if you run out of heating oil due to y2k? They will no doubt have every pipeline running full at the stroke of midnight and every truck driver will be hitting the road Jan 1....but not before!"

This is surely, even if you take this at face value without reading between the lines, one of the most blatant examples of Government incompetence you can imagine.

This is y2k fer crying out loud. Why the hell didn't our energy sec. Richardson make sure that both crude and gasoline and heating oil were at RECORD levels...

This is the most monumental FUBAR IMHO!!!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.


ASSUMPTIONS:

1. Profit is primary motivator.

2. Y2K is understood.

CONCLUSION:

Profit on each barrel sold from the reserves post CDC will be greater than pre-CDC profit, despite increased taxes, given y2k's impact on supply and demand and so pricing.

REALITY: Clearly the industries behavior is irrational on the surface, so what might be their hidden agenda? Or is it more reasonable to instead challenge the assumptions?

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 25, 1999.



Hokie,

Profit on each barrel sold from the reserves post CDC will be greater than pre-CDC profit, despite increased taxes, given y2k's impact on supply and demand and so pricing.

Good point - but correct me if I'm wrong, this is our oil, paid for with our taxes. Why should we [the USA] lets it be used in this manner - remember, this is a STRATEGIC reserve which should really only be used in times of war. We have 60 days supply allegedly - what happens if we get into a war situation at day 40 with precious little left.

This is pure BS. Richardson should resign immediately.

But hey, they're not this stupid.

Set-up to take Ven IMHO if TSHTF in Jan/Feb.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.


Yep, I agree. I think he has enough of an understanding of the situation. I think he must be up to something sneaky. I'll be damned if I can figure out what that "something" would be though!

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 25, 1999.

How about this?

Draw down inventories because you will have to have somewhere to store the crude in 2000 that is already on its way here in tankers.

Might not be able to use the crude since the refineries might be shut down due to power problems.

But once refineries back on line by May-June the crude will be waiting.

Even I don't believe that one....to much foresight;^)

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), December 25, 1999.


-- Hokie wrote:

Yep, I agree. I think he has enough of an understanding of the situation. I think he must be up to something sneaky. I'll be damned if I can figure out what that "something" would be though!

**********************

Why let's just nationalize the oil industry since apparantly they can't be trusted to watch out for our best intrests.

Might be a common sentiment after a month without gasoline.

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), December 25, 1999.


Just a guess but assume Richardson does not want to end up like Ron Brown. He's just playing his part and saying yessir, yessir.

Great book for facts re: interconnectedness "Lexus and the Olive Tree."

-- claurann (claurann@aol.com), December 25, 1999.



Both the EIA and the DOE numbers have been suspect now for about a month. In the last two weeks, they've gone into total spin mode. They have NO LINK to reality. I repeat NO LINK to the real situation.

From what I have been able to see, most refiners have kept their tanks on "chock a block full" status as we head to the rollover. They may be minimizing crude inventories, but are usually maxing on the products. This strategy has been batted around for a while by most of the majors, and creates it's own little problems independent of Y2K. The consensus was simple (as it usually is) : We know there's going to be a demand spike at month end make sure you have product to sell.

At the wholesale level on products, unbranded sales, jobbers, dealers etc. demand is spiking quite noticably. I'm also hearing lots of reports of individual demand re: gas cans etc.

Here's the deal the EIA and DOE numbers are always suspect under normal conditions. Always to be taken with a grain of salt. In order to digest the current numbers, you would need hundreds of pounds of stockpiled and hoarded salt.

I am extremely worried about my industry. We have not taken the problem seriously enough. We have not put our best people in charge. The people we had, didn't get it in the first place. The Clinton adminsitration worked hard to diminish whatever initial importance had been created out of normal common sense fears. Many in the industry believed their own hype and that of the Clintons and became complacent. Sorry, but I think we're in real trouble now.

Merry Christmas to All.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 25, 1999.


Morning! and Merry Christmas, you bloody bloke! : )

Something is definately askew in oil and commodity markets. There is very little y2k risk factored in anywhere, including oil.

The Reuters/EIA article you started with is mostly an analysis of the last one week EIA report. One can't read too much into week to week stats and reports. For longer term oil inventory trends, scoll to the bottom of the EIA link that John gaciously hotlinked. After being predominately above average operating levels at the end of the first quarter, its been a steady slide downward. I've almost never seen crude, gasoline and heating oil all below the 5 year average stock levels like they are now.

Oil markets are tight because of non-y2k fundamentals. If you want to see how tough economic forecasts are, read this week's (or maybe last week's) excellent Brit publication The Economist. March 8 they run a Swimming in Oil and Prices Are Going Lower article and now they have the nuts to call themselves on the carpet and lament on how wrong they were.

Oil markets are tight because:

-The production restricting agreement last fall wasn't just OPEC. It included Norway, Mexico and a couple others. Its a strong agreement thats been adhered to.

-Don't watch OPEC as much as the Saudis. Regan and Bush had deals with the House of Saud. Clinton doesn't. For some reason (probably they're broke) the Saudis are OK with +$22 crude when they haven't been earlier in the 90s and late 80s.

I truely don't think oil companies are worried about y2k disruptions. Ninety five percent of traders don't think there will be any rollover probs and so we'll all be swimming in all these stockpiled inventories. They think primary demand will be near zero and supply will flow uninterupted in early Jan.

Not only do they have LIFO accounting concerns for keeping their inventories low but there's some inventory tax in Texas at the end of the year that they consider a big deal. I don't know details but I bet Gordo or Dog One do. This year end aside, they also drop 'em and then bring em back up in early Jan.

So you think Richardson should have mandated higher inventory levels. I thought you were more free market than that. But I have a question for you: If all the economic US domestic oil production is running flat out and the US refineries are as well, how do you mandate higher stock levels? The only way would be to twist some arms in Saudi Arabia. As I said earlier, Clinton doesn't have the pull there that previous administrations did.

As we all know, playing these markets is tough. I've been looking for trades that have limited downside, yet big upside on y2k disruptions. Instead of outright length or calls, here's a few with limited downside:

Ted Spreads: Long 90 day T-Bills/ Short 90 day Eurodollar. Since T-Bills are backed by the US gov and the Eurodollars aren't backed by anything, it widens on any financial disruptions. Its currently cheap around 65 points. Limited downside, bigtime upside.

Long Feb gasoline, Short March gasoline. Trading at rough parity. The Feb will zoom relative the March on y2k probs. Limited risk, limited gains also.

Any long gasoline or heating oil, short crude spread. . Like I've been saying, these cracks aren't reflecting any rollover/refining risks. All we have in the SPR is crude. If there are probs, these products will explode in absolute terms but a lower risk play is to spread them against the crude. Stay in the nearby's on the products and sell deferreds on the crude.

The above said, I'm taking half my chips off the table on Monday. Good luck for a prosperous new year! Remember the Chinese think chaos and opportunity are inter-related.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 25, 1999.


Thank you for your honesty Gordon. That helps me make sense out of some of the trends and articles I've been reading.

I really don't know how you GI techies can cope with your insights on y2k verses all the forces lined up in oposition to you. Thanks to all who take the time to break some stuff down for us non-techs. It really is quite moving, given the weight of the world on your shoulders already.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 25, 1999.


Andy,

FWIW, I have been trying to buy Crude Oil calls at the 3000 strike price, in various months, for over 8 working days. I have also offered $20.00 per contract above daily closing price and I am not getting filled. I have watched them move up in price on average of $100.00 in every strike price, although crude has actually leveled off and dropped into the higher 25's. Somebody knows something and something is oil prices are going to explode. The same thing goes for Dow and Nasdaq 100 Puts.

A I'm sure you know, watching the options and futures markets will tell a whole lot about what the money boys think about the future. Their saying gold, silver and oil to the moon and Equity markets to the cellar.

Mike

-- flierdude (e-mail@down.com), December 25, 1999.


Guys,

Refineries are cranking it out as fast as possible. Problem is: it is not fast enough. Refineries are creaking right now as they rock. It's a little like an arthritic hall-of-famer running back in the last game of his career cause the body is giving out. And it's not just Y2K problems...but rather the Stock market demands for next Q. profits has essentially forced oil co. execs to postpone needed maintenance and updgrades for the better part of 7 to 10 years...and esp the last 5 yrs on maintenance.

Relatives in the business tell me their refineries are running at max (but max is far less than historic capacity due to degradation of equip unrelated --they think-- to Y2K)but demand is running as fast or faster than they can ouput product. Further more EPA has added newer restrictions to storage capacities. Consequently, storage capacity has been whittled down by edict over the last 18 years. They can't store up even if they wanted to. Traditionally, this is the time of year for some refineries to do routine maintenance in slower demand seasons. The last 4 yrs or so has seen far less maintenance and no-one is doing the 90-day maintenance turn-arounds like they used to. They're lucky if a refinery gets a 7 day turn-a-round maintenance overhaul once every 2 years. In other words, no one's taking care of their equipment because it might cost an extra 2 cents in quarterly profits and we wouldn't want that now would we?

The only ones not worried about Y2K are the morons who will be legally liable if/when the refineries blow up and kill people. I speak of the officers of the companies. If it happens, I hope they prosecute them for criminal manslaughter charges. Frankly, those who are in the "technical-know" re: refineries, pipelines and tankers, etc. are extremely nervous right now. They know the risks they're going into. Some who are really in-the-know have headed for the hills, taking early retirement.

My sources said this would happen 6 months ago...All out production runs (but capacity has shrunk)and yet still-shrinking inventory from huge demand increases. Sooner or later the oil execs will pay the piper. I think it's coming sooner and not later.

I'll have a report for you later today, tonite or tomorrow. Waiting on just one source now.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 25, 1999.


I don't know anything about an inventory tax on the oil industry in Texas, and I've been in the business 20 years now. I'm not saying it's false, and I'm on the upsteam side of the business, but this wouldn't make much sense.

Taxing possession of a commodity is counter-productive. Oil is taxed (ad valorem) as it is produced, and severance taxes can be hefty.

Everything I read says that our industry is going pedal to the metal producing as much gasoline as we can (given that the refineries are retooled to produce more heating oil this time of year).

-- Dog Gone (Layinglow@rollover.now), December 25, 1999.


Mike,

I haven't had any problems in Germany to buy and sell oil, gold or stocks options here. Lost alot of coins yet with a put on stocks (DAX) and a call on oil.

I don't think that most of investment and fonds comps have "preped" other than years before.

-- Rainbow (Rainbow@123easy.net), December 25, 1999.


My husband who fixes the electronic downhole computing systems in Alberta for a medium company, and a great cynic about the oil industry footsie they play with the govt., says that if the U.S. is out of oil, that we in Canada and those in Mexico will see American tanks in our streets. That the large number of shut-in wells will be opened and men recruited (either military or industry workers) to do this until there is enough production in the works.

He also says this will not take long to get them producing again and that the large Oil Companies would "pump them down until the sea rushed in", destroying the fields.

He is US/American dual citizen - this is not anti-US rhetoric, just a great fear of his, concerning the major oil companies and their lack of morals, integrity and their cosiness with governments.

You could also be right about "helping out" Venezuela in the future in return for something - maybe opening the air-lanes to drug enforcement planes, something which has been refused by Chavez, or first kick at the cat on oil delivery. And countries importing from Ven. could claim the mudslides as excuse for shortages in crude.

It just seems that the huge oil conglomerates have been too busy merging this last year, and the money for production has not been filtering down to the smaller companies in Canada while they wait and see what is going to happen. The main investors have been the medium developers, according to the companies we have exposure to. This was reported in Penwell. (have to look up this quote).

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), December 25, 1999.


Laurane,

Thanks for posting that information. I sure wish we could hear from your husband. Could you talk your husband into coming to this forum to describe for us what all is involved in his job? I ask because of your comment:

"...who fixes the electronic downhole computing systems in Alberta for a medium company."

I am assuming he works with oil wells? There are serious skeptics and cynics here that don't believe there are downhole computing systems involved in oil wells. I'd love to have him come on line to explain oil well downhole computing systems and what is involved from a technical standpoint. Thank you.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 25, 1999.


The line "Inventories have been drawn down low enough to put the oil companies in a good position for end of the year taxes", caught my attention.

Another example of how this corrupt government and tax system creates incentives to do the wrong thing from a business standpoint.

Other examples
Treatment of interest and dividends vs. capital gains.
Corporate ability to deduct "benefits" as well as wages. Inability of consumers to get commensurate tax deductions if they buy the benefits themselves. This has led to the bloated HMO fiasco, where even routine maintenance such as teeth cleaning is covered by "insurance".
You see why I'd like to see a 9 or 10? Nothing else will get rid of this crap -- certainly you can't depend on the sheep to wake up.

-- A (A@AisA.com), December 25, 1999.


Thanks LL for ruining the thread.

You need psychiatric help.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.


RC - my husband works with the downhole logging equipment - this is a calibration of the densities of the rock in the hole. These tools do not stay down there, they just show where the zones are. His company is compliant as far as the data processing is concerned with the PC's - he does not get involved in the processing, just the electronic fixing - the circuit boards when they crater, the wiring in the measuring tools, the "sparks" part of the system.

But they are also worried about the larger companies which hire them to do this work - will they still have the money coming in to pay them, what amount of work will there be next year, and when will the BIG companies decide to get onstream with more exploration if THEY have problems with their delivery and production systems.

A friend is the Central Alberta manager for the largest company building oil rigs and they are going flat out in the expectation that they will sell all they can make next year...these are basic rigs, not the top-drive (Tesco/Schlumberger type) with the computer driven systems. So there is a lot of optimism up here. I also believe that there could be some conspiring of the oil majors and the US govt. to keep quiet the fact that there could be disruptions in the flow to the gas stations. It is amazing to me that last year when the oil prices were so low, we up here could not envision a price such as we see now....our predominant bumper sticker up here says..."God, if there is another oil boom, let me not pee it away like last time". We feel like we're in another mini boom, and if Y2k is disruptive for a long time, we will see $40 oil.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), December 25, 1999.


link at

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0026Qj

Gonna ramble a bit here, but there is much to discuss. What is sticking in my mind are some of the comments made to R. Reagan's GRACE COMMISION in the 1980's. The Commission members interviewed the leading financial experts and government finance personalities in many of the South American countries. When the Commision asked, "How long did it take your economy to go from a state of normalcy to hyperinflation?" the answer was, "One week".

"One week", think about it! We have just gone through an 18 year bull market for bonds and stocks. Commodity inflation has not been much of a problem during this period. In fact commodity prices have been remarkably stable in spite of record money creation by the Fed and the banking system. They have been stable dispite the fact there exists a massive and rapidly increasing amount of $US currency in circulation throughout the world. It even more remarkable that commodity prices have remained under control given the enormous float of counterfiet currency in circulation (estimated at between 10-20% of the total currency float).

The commodity complex has been a relatively unattractive investment compared to bonds and equities over the past 2 decades. The lack of investment/speculative interest can partially explain this lackluster performance as can the disinflationary policies of the last real central banker, Paul Volker. Manipulation is one other means of suppressing prices. The commodity complex has recently been showing signs of life while also giving us glimpses of a massive secret campaign to keep commodity prices in check. The best illustration is the blatant manipulation of the gold market. (please refer to www.lemetropolecafe.com for detail). Last week it was disclosed that in an attempt to keep the price of palladium in check (a price increase of any precious metal will spill over into the others) the US Government has liquidated virtually its entire stockpile of this very strategic metal. Now Russia remains virtually the lone supplier of palladium to the world market. Incredible!

No doubt the same powers are working overtime to keep the oil complex in check. It is a losing battle IMHO and this is being reflected in the bizzare behavior and statements being made by Richardson, Clinton and the rest. In fact, they have already lost the war (how do you fight a insoluble computer design error?) we just don't know it yet.

Indeed, I believe the Y2K problem will be the tripwire that releases the shackles from commodity prices and ushers us down the nasty and demoralizing road to hyperinflation. It will most likely start in the oil complex and rapidly spread to all other real commodites. This process should start within the next three weeks and keep going for years. Remember, it took the SA countries only 1 week to go from normalcy to hyperinflation.

Why? It is so simple. The lack of energy and a breakdown in the JIT process will severely impare our ability to create and process/refine new supplies of commodities. The exisiting stockpiles instantly become very very valuable as future deliveries are suspect. If your orginazation intends to remain in existance, it must stockpile all necessary supplies IMMEDIATELY. No choice in this matter! Add to this the incredible amounts of bank created funds and currency in circulation , what will stop this great price expolsion?

So as a civilization here we sit, going into the last year of the millenium largely ignorant and complacent about the economic ramifications of Y2K. We are in love with our grossly inflated paper assets and all the toys (SUV's etc.) they bring us. Things are so good, we cannot imagine bad times and we will not listen to any objective voices of caution. Technology has served us incredibly well and of course we humans have complete control over our high tech! - or do we? Boy are things going to change - and fast!

Likes: 1. gold coins 2. junk silver coins 3. 2-4 week deposits 4. Unhedge gold producers and junior golds 5. Commodity based companies

Dislikes: 1. bubble stocks (the whole high tech complex) 2. deposits and bonds with a maturity of greater than 1 month

More than anything else, I believe that liquidity is your friend.

"A commodity in hand is infinitely more valuable than a promise to deliver." Y2K mantra

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 26, 1999.


Andy,

Just curious, are you buying gold and silver coins?

-- LZach (lisa@texasnetworks.com), December 26, 1999.


---

Andy, the oil companies and the Clinton Gang sadly don't believe in Murphy's Law.

However, there is still time for you to add to your own "Strategic Personal Reserves" in the form of cases of motor oil and 5 gallon gas cans filled to the brim.

These corporate and government types are experienced in being in control. They apparently can't fathom a situation in which they are powerless.

I have read many of your posts and know that you understand.

I have to agree with you that this situation seems, at least to the rational mind, to be nightmarish fiction. Sad to say, it seems to be true. We just have to deal with it on a personal level.

I am recommending a "Strategic Personal Reserves", buy good quality product and protect it for the future.

---

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), December 26, 1999.


Hey Zach, Snooze,

sold my porsche, bought lots of gold coins and silver bullion...

bought a mountain bike - I don't ***need*** gas, I'm the only person who cycles to work (and probably the fittest) out of 20 people, when gas rationing hits I won't be in trouble...

some people just have no foresight, and these are personal fiends of mine that I've given y2k info. to about oil, banks, power etc.

currently loading up on oil and unleade gas call options... if I make any profit it will go to my family and buy more gold... if things get as bad as i think after a market crash I can see a high or even (remote) a hyper-inflation scenario...

1 mill $$$ will soon be worth a fifth of that in a severe contraction...

don't take my word for it,listen to Ed Yardeni, Ed Yourdon to name two...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 26, 1999.


Laurane,

Thank you for your clarification. I wasn't sure if your husband was working for an oil company directly or indirectly and whether it was related directly to the exploration or production side.

Oh, there's a similar bumper sticker I've seen down in Texas that says the same thing about if there is a next oil boom.

Thanks again.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 26, 1999.


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