Will there be a sudden collapse or a gradual meltdown over 2-3 months. Your input please...

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Cause enquiring minds really want to know. After all, its Y2K we're talking about. Why all this talk about society slowing crunching to a halt. Can computers slowly crunch? Just..

-- Wonderin out loud (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999

Answers

I've lost my map link showing the three main U.S. regional grids, East, West, and ERCOT? (Texas.) Could someone please oblige?

TIA

-- lostling (lostlink@nowhere.com), December 22, 1999.


It will be both. Major industry will collapse upon the rollover and that will take everything else down with it. Some will survive with the preps they have, but if they're not prepared for a "10," then they'll most likely be dead in a few months.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.

Thanks, that makes me feel better :)

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

Both.

Early January will see how many unremediated embedded chips are in critical applications.

Followed by general public reactions if more than a BITR like stock market and US currency devaluations.

Later will see delays in delivery of critical raw materials (Crude oil, pharmaceuticals and more) from overseas due to disruptions of JIT supply lines.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), December 22, 1999.


I suspect the story will be very complex. Lots of industrial processes (oil, chemical, manufacutring etc.) will be put out of order by immediate problems. Some nations will not be trading partners anymore, they will be up to their eyeballs in their own problems.

In America, it may take may weeks before shortages happen in the stores.

Part of the problem in forcasting is there is so much we need to know. To take a simple issue: what forms of payment will be useable in America in mid-January? Will checks be accepted? Will credit cards be accepted? Will Purchase Orders be accepted? We could tell a lot if we knew the answer.

My focus is to try to be ready for a broad range of possibilities. But I see no simple fast vs. slow answer. It depends on what portion of the economy you are talking about.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), December 22, 1999.



How can it be both? Doesn't make sense.

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

-snip-

""We will hew to our baseless confidence or pussyfoot around the obvious until the end.""

(oh--this is the last paragraph from the Essay by Dale Way the IEEE y2k chair. What does he mean baseless confidence or pussyfoot around the obvious until the End)?

""Collectively we are going to drive the ship right into the iceberg and not say anything until the screaming starts...""

( I gotto tell ya folks, I always thought engineers were the unemotional types. What screaming? Whos Screaming? Why are they Screaming? Screaming for joy!! Yea we made it--we crashed into the iceberg.)

""...and then claim we did all we could to make everything compliant.""

(Isnt that what we are being told?? Everything is compliant?)

"" WE WILL BURN IN HELL"

(OK, This does it for me!! The Y2K chair for the IEEE, the most respected non-profit standard setting firms in the world. And the Chairman uses these words to end his essay about Y2K. No hints here!)

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 22, 1999.


IF banks, with all their computers, have a rough time, and are dealing with bank runs, or if any of the other golden triangle utilities suffer dearly ie chemicals, oils, etc, I don't see how we can even stumble through these kinds of problems. Y2K, logically, should be a TKO....

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

How can it be both? Doesn't make sense.

It was already explained to you in two separate posts. Perhaps you are a troll?

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.


Will we even know what's happening?

Won't tptb just LIE LIE LIE about everything, like they're doing right now?

What makes any of us think we'll know what's going on in January?

I suspect it will be a big confusing mixture of silence & bad information.

-- we might really be (in@the.dark), December 22, 1999.



No, but perhaps you are a schmenky? Look, the statements are inherently illogical, ie, well on one hand all the chemical/oil etc will crash, but maybe the credit cards will work?

Duuhhhh. I don't think so. Please make more sense, people....

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.


Troll. Now you're wasting our time.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.

Like your time is that valuable. Gee, wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

"Will there be a sudden collapse or a gradual meltdown over 2-3 months?"

Yes.

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), December 22, 1999.


Wonderin- The point is that there will be both a small immediate crash ( as when power goes out in various places and many imbeded systems suddenly stop working at midnight) and there will be a slow grinding to a halt, as when banks and other institutions that depend on power, utilities and the rest, slowly begin to find they can't function because the water doesnt' work, or power's sporadic, etc. Some parts will happen fast, other events will happen slow. See? Give it a little thought. :)

-- Talknhead (up@dawn.com), December 22, 1999.


"The point is that there will be both a small immediate crash ( as when power goes out in various places and many imbeded systems suddenly stop working at midnight) and there will be a slow grinding to a halt, as when banks and other institutions that depend on power, utilities and the rest, slowly begin to find they can't function because the water doesnt' work, or power's sporadic, etc."

AM I MISSING SOMETHING? Look, for the last time folks, how can banks 'slowly realize' they can't function. I mean, LOL! And no, I'm not a troll. Business does not slowly realize anything. If the power is out, its out. Case closed, shut the doors. Maybe its too early in the morning for a question like this?

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.


Wonderin'

I wouldn't pay much attention to its@coming.soon. All it has ever had to say is how we're going to be dead in a few days, weeks or months.

I reckon you could give it credit for consistency though.......

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), December 22, 1999.


I am thinking it will be a gradual degradation in our economic base.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), December 22, 1999.

let me try to answer this dolts question...

The embedded problems should show up rather quickly after the rollover. This would include things like utilities, refineries/pipelines, manufacturing etc. What you seem to fail to comprehend, is that they will not all fail (the % that will/may fail is open to speculation), so while some areas of the country and world may see an immediate meltdown, others will not. Will our economy collapse on 01/01/2000 because (for example) large portions of California go dark? No, for the rest of the country things willl be much as normal.....for a while. The other, slower part of a meltdown will be with mainframes and networks. If many companies find that they did not remediate thoroughly, and their systems are eithr completely down, or are operating at XX% efficiency, they will be able to limp along "going manual" for a while (while drawing down their cash reserves), but eventually if they can't get their systems fixed, and began massive layoffs, the economy will disintegrate.

-- _ (_@_._), December 22, 1999.


If you heard that one of your friend's had been shot and killed, would it matter if they died instantly or lasted a few day's. The end result is the same.

-- ~***~ (~***~@earth.ebe), December 22, 1999.

"The embedded problems should show up rather quickly after the rollover. This would include things like utilities, refineries/pipelines, manufacturing etc. What you seem to fail to comprehend, is that they will not all fail"

You, buddy, are speaking out of both sides of your, um, mouth. A failure is a failure is a failure. Are some embeddeds, although identical, gonna fail at different times? Maybe in Neverland. You suffer from preconception without regard to logic. Maybe you're a politician?

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.


"The other, slower part of a meltdown will be with mainframes and networks. If many companies find that they did not remediate thoroughly, and their systems are eithr completely down, or are operating at XX% efficiency, they will be able to limp along "going manual" for a while (while drawing down their cash reserves), but eventually if they can't get their systems fixed, and began massive layoffs, the economy will disintegrate."

What a pile of **it. Where the hell did you go to school?

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.


As I said, this is just a troll. Don't waste your time with it.

Go play with Ladylogic, "Wondering."

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.


Between the terrorist bombs, looters, rioters, fires, domestic idiot groups starting sh*t, failing embeddeds, and mass panic, I will say that it will be an instantanious state of MASS pandemonium.

Will that do? No doublespeak here. Best of luck:)

-- CygnusXI (cygnus@black-hole.com), December 22, 1999.


When someone calls me a dolt 'ask', they better be smarter 'n me! And I can assure you, you and yer buddy ain't. You guys may be GI's, but yer caught up in the illusion that everything will just nice and slowly grind to a halt. Which is the sign an inferior intellect. Why? Cause its so **cking obvious. Lay off on the big macs for a while, it'll help you think better....

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

When someone calls me a dolt 'ask', they better be smarter 'n me!

You mean, smart enough to know who you're talking to? Who is 'ask?' Isn't that you, wondering (had@to.ask)? Don't you even remeber the name you troll under? Or do you just enjoy talking to yourself?

You've had your fun. Now playtime is over. Back under the bridge, troll.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.


It is very obvious what will happen in 2000! The handwriting is on the wall! Look at what is happening in the world. We are already starting to have Computer problems. They will escalate and compound upon each other and cause a gradual domino effect! Y2K cannot be fixed! It is not fixable! We have only 500.000 Programmers doing the repairs. We need one Million Programmers to do the job right!

Saddam Hussein has shut down his oil production, because he knows it is no use. He knows he is doomed and that the oilwells and refineries are doomed. OPEC knows it is doomed. For the first time in 25 years they have been able to stick together and stick to their plan to cut production in order to raise prices. This is the first time they have succeeded! The price at the gas station will tell you I'm right!

Y2K will be a 2 at the end of January and then move up one or two notches every month until by May it will be a six or seven when the Banks close in Gridlock because of Cascading Cross Defaults. All Banks claim they are Y2K ready. None of them claim to be Y2K COMPLIANT!

By June or July unemployment will be at 80%. Nobody will work when the Banks are closed, because nobody will get paid. We will have until April to continue preparing and stocking up food bigtime. You will need at least 5 years of food so you will survive. Maybe even ten years!

By August we will be at a 10 and we will have an economic collapse and lack of oil will have caused it. All oilwells all over the world will shut down January 1st, 2000 because of date sensitive Embedded Micro Chips!!! Our oil reserves will not be of any use to us, because the oil wells will not operate. No Embedded Chip replacement parts are available for oil wells.

By October 2000, millions will have died from hunger all over the World. Real Estate prices will crash bigtime because of millions of empty homes! It will be a cold winter next year December without Gas or Electricity! We will have no Electricity by next fall because trains cannot deliver coal from coal mines to power plants without diesel fuel!

Food cannot be delivered to Market without diesel fuel! Food will rot on the farmers fields! Perpare for a 10 year depression!

Warn your friends and family! E-Mail this message to all those you care about!

-- jean (jbfarnworth@aol.com), December 21, 1999.

-- jean (jbfarnworth@oal.com), December 22, 1999.


First of all, I'm not your buddy. Your question seemed to indicate that you were asking if we will have a sudden collapse, or a gradual collapse. Sorry I should have simply stated, what does it matter. A collapse is a collapse is a collapse. I must suffer from a bad case of "preconception without regard to logic" to have come up with that answer.

-- ~***~ (~***~@earth.ebe), December 22, 1999.

If you heard that one of your friend's had been shot and killed, would it matter if they died instantly or lasted a few day's. The end result is the same.

If the friend's spritual condition took a turn for the better in the last few days...that's the way to go. The same goes for a nation.

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), December 22, 1999.


January will cause one set of problems for the United States. January problems in foreign countries will cause another set of problems for the U.S. by March or April.

Imports. Supply chains.

The economic fallout from Y2K could last for years. The stock market crashed in 1929, but the bottom wasn't reached until 1932-33. Full employment did not return until 1941-42.

-- (easy@to.understand), December 22, 1999.


Deano -

You and I differ significantly on our expected outcomes of Y2K-related failures, though we do agree that the Jags are odds-on to win the whole enchilada if the lights stay on - 8-).

That said, you know financial systems backwards'n'forwards. How's about you take the "Direside" for a moment and explain to wondering just how long it can take for a business to realize that some of its mission-critical financial systems are subtly, but thoroughly corrupted? I've seen it take three or four months to discover the true extent of the problem and twice or three times that long to correct, with the organization hemorrhaging money the entire time. Lots of RIFs were the result. YMMV.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 22, 1999.


Yea Mac, but that wasn't a Y2K problem now, was it? Has everyone on this forum gone south? I keep reading about new systems that go kaput the moment they're installed. I've never heard of a gradual Y2K breakdown. Time to, uh, think outside the box. And if I sound ridiculing, its because idiots like 'its' jump on the troll bandwagon the moment they're subjected to questions that are really, really hard!!! Like, you mean I have to choose between one and the other. Well you must be a troll! Sorry folks, I haven't heard a sensible reason yet why Y2K is going to be BOTH. Unless you want me to suspend logic, etc. Too close for that...

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

BillP,

"Followed by general public reactions if more than a BITR like stock market and US currency devaluations. "

Devalue against what?

-- gary (a@a.com), December 22, 1999.


Sorry folks, I haven't heard a sensible reason yet why Y2K is going to be BOTH.

January will cause one set of problems for the United States. January problems in foreign countries will cause another set of problems for the U.S. by March or April.

Imports. Supply chains.

The economic fallout from Y2K could last for years. The stock market crashed in 1929, but the bottom wasn't reached until 1932-33. Full employment did not return until 1941-42.

-- (easy@to.understand), December 22, 1999.


I am thinking we will see a hard bump in the night followed by studied silence, leaked rumors, etc. And then we will slowly bleed to death for the next 6 months. By Summer we will know things are not coming back...and then people will start to think about the next winter...:-(

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), December 22, 1999.

I am thinking we will see a hard bump in the night followed by studied silence, leaked rumors, etc. And then we will slowly bleed to death for the next 6 months. By Summer we will know things are not coming back...and then people will start to think about the next winter... (:-(

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), December 22, 1999.

My Dear M(r)(s). Wondering:

Perhaps it is YOU who is constrained by thinking inside a box. It would appear that you will accept ONLY one of ONLY two predefined possibilities, from the VAST array of actual possibilities.

Perhaps YOU need to open YOUR thinking and recognize the GLOBAL effects of the problem, and to consider the time lag of failures (either complete or partial [partial failure consists of SEVERE degradation in efficiency]) in different sectors of the economy or different parts of the world. The effects of the problem will be felt in different ways in different areas PURELY because the world economy and civilisation is NOT monolythic, regardles of how much YOU want to view it as such.

Regards,

Night train (borrowing Ken Decker's hat for a bit)

-- jes a confused ol footballer (nighttr@in.lane), December 22, 1999.


Try again with this dolt with only two elements!

Icehole, downed factories/plants mean immediate financial enscrewment to those employed there (if shut down long enough).... while the business that supply goods & services to these consumers on the couch will feel whatever pain within months.

Banks, such as Deutsche, who cough up enormous hairballs and halt operations, will be permanently TU if they're down for even a week.

Oh, wait, three. If/when petroleum is 20% less available, that would indicate a gradual smashup.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), December 22, 1999.


Wondering,

Hello. My opinion: A slow "meltdown". There will be problems, but they will be gradually worked out (with work-arounds in the meantime). "End of the world?" - hardly. "Pain in the rump." - yes.

My $.02.

God Bless everyone! Merry Christmas!

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), December 22, 1999.


Hey Lisa @ work

Let me test a bit of your logic. SOME major companies go kaboom, thereby affecting smaller companies over the course of MONTHS. Gee, I guess all those little ol companies are Y2K compliant eh? I guess none of those little ol companies use the bank eh? I guess the writing won't be on the walls of those little ol company managers the moment their products are shipped 'return to sender' eh?

How long can a generator or press or whatever work without oil? Do these little ol companies use Tesla coils when the power goes out and the gas runs dry. Do you think these little ol companies will have a direct line to any available oil supplies (scuze me Sarge, but my little ol company needs that barrel of oil over there, yeah THAT one).

Time to embrace the power of systemic thinking folks. Ever try to get where you want to be, but can't? Kind of screws up your whole day, especially when that 'somewhere' is your job, or the store.

What's my point? I don't think yer all psychologically prepared to tough it out, if you thing society will even resemble itself come Jan 4th. I mean, its obvious you don't even want to consider that scenario, which makes a hell of a lot of more sense than any of your childish postulations....

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.


Mac

Holdiay wishes to you and yours. Hope everything is going well.

Keeping our fingers crossed with the Jags. High hopes down here that rely on staying healthy and maintaining home field throughout the playoffs. BIG game this weekend with the Titans (who beat us the 3rd week of the season 20-19 at our house). One lousy point from the '72 Dolphins really getting worried about now.......oh well....

Know financial systems inside'n'out??? Not hardly, but very familiar with ours that processes 65 out of every 100 mortgages. It's a huge application. When update transcations (it's a batch system) are entered into the nightly production runs, each tran is sent through an edit module. This edit module is expecting certain vaules in certain columns. If the vaules don't match, the tran is rejected and sent to an edit report. This application has several history mechanisms that 'remember' what went in yesterday. If the tran is suspect, in any manner, it is rejected. Maybe there will be more rejects then normal???

I will say that my organization DID use all of 1999 for testing. Mostly with outside vendors as our internal testing was completed in 1998. These vendors included lockbox (that's where your house payment comes in), credit bureaus, insurance (hazard and MIP/PMI), private investors, property inspections, optional insurances and tax services. The testing was conducted in a future-dated infrastructure with aged data. There were no Y2K errors. None.

We tested with FNMA, GNMA, SONYMA and HUD as far as GSE's go. Again, no Y2K errors encountered.

Am I saying our systems are completely bug-free? Of course not. We know we did well in our remediation and testing, but no one bats 1.000. We EXPECT there to be errors (hey, like I said, it's a BIG system), but nothing that we can't handle quickly. We have LOTS of folks (including yours truly) that will be here for the rollover.

I think it really depends on the nature of the system as to whether it will allow bad data to enter it. If it does, it may take a while to be noticed. If it doesn't, corrupted data is not a concern.

Deano - who is sooooo tired of Y2K these days..........

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), December 22, 1999.


wondering,

Unfortunately your hubris is surpassed by your idiocy!

If you look up Dolt--you will find it has been used in the proper context. You have been referred to as a troll and a dolt.

Here is the reason why.

Everyone reading this forum has the exact same amount of information: IEEE,CIA,FBI,CONGRESS,GARTNER,NIST,NERC,PROGRAMMERS,I.M.,Just to name a few.

All of us Know the variables involved regarding imbeds,interconnectedness,terrorists,cyberterrorists,lying,Plus not to mention the last day of the year when 75% go to fill up their tanks.

If you feel attacked it is only because we think you are asking an extremely obvious question and then attacking the incredulity that is expressed towards your ignorance.

Stop! right now I say. move on !

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 22, 1999.


d---, actually I'm a really nice guy in the real world, but I'm a bit surprised by the wayward expectations of this group. I though TB2000 understood that 20-30 embedded failure is a possibility, that the extreme interdependence of systems should create absolute havoc, that something as simple as traffic light failure, or train switching or FAA radar can gum up the whole works. We are one big functioning unit that has, IMO, 0% room for error. that's computers for ya, and that's the only logical story. If people want to attack, no problem. I give as good as I get :)

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

Since you seem to already know the answer to the question you asked, then why are you "wondering" at all? All you've done so far is demand answers, insult everyone who's given you one, demand MORE answers, and blame the rest of TB2000 for "attacking" you.

This is the behavior of a troll. You are not at all interested in an answer to your question, only in causing a flame war. Go troll somewhere else.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.


Listen Its, you are truly an idiot. YOU started the war of words, simply because you can't separate a real question from some kind of imaginary trollish crap. And now YOU insist of perpetuating it further. Why not put on your thinking cap and try and reason my scenario through? Too difficult for you? Don't play with the big boys, OK? Stick to your stupid troll pandering, thanks...

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

You had no "real" question, "wondering," because all you've done is insult everyone who gave you an answer which didn't match the one you expected. You've already been asked by a few people to quit the trolling, and if you continue, you'll probably end up on the Delete list with your buddies Ladylogic and Y2K Pro.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 22, 1999.

No, I've only returned all the insults. Too bad, cause I was looking forward to an intelligent discussion....

-- wondering (had@to.ask), December 22, 1999.

Wondering,

You really have to tread lightly when first arriving in the community. If your tag is not recognized and you instinctively throw out bait looking for the intelligent quotient you will and have run into cynicism based on past nefarious types.

You may want to try a post that interjects some of your thoughts instead of asking a question to see how many smart responses you get.

Take my word for it--such a collection of decent mature intelligent citizens does not exist in any other local. good luck (and welcome if you are legit)

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 22, 1999.


"Whining" Out Loud--

The answer is "both"...

You and your troll bretheren will disappear in a non-compliant blue- white flash, the rest of us will remain.

-- no-no (no@no.no), December 22, 1999.


WONDERIN, Are these the only two options, in your opinion?

I can think of at least one other, but I dare not mention it, as it would upset too many dogmatic people.

I suspect the SMART doomers will say that it will be gradual; otherwise if nothing happens on rollover, they won't have anything to talk about.

Does ANYONE really know?

ALK

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), December 22, 1999.


If the power grid stays up (mostly), there will be a gradual degredation that increases exponentially...then slows to some semblance of balance. Rebuilding the economy will be slow, and will require considerable effort and coordination.

If the power grid goes down for any length of time, we'll be fighting for our lives to avoid TOTWAWKI...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 22, 1999.


http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001AdE

[snip]

Government's top Y2K expert predicts failures for weeks, months

July 30, 1999
Web posted at: 12:06 PM EDT (1606 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Don't expect the Year 2000 technology problem to disappear after Jan. 1. President Clinton's top Y2K expert said failures could extend well beyond New Year's Day.
 

Although John Koskinen predicts there will be a national "sigh of relief" in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.

Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press that some failures may not become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card bills and other financial paperwork.

"It won't evaporate until after that," Koskinen said. "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem." But he also slightly hedged his predictions: "None of us are really going to know until after January 1."

Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when those machines will assume it is 1900.

Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may take weeks to notice.

"The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing it correctly but it's doing it all wrong," Koskinen said.

Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Monday, Jan. 3, as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the first time.

Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even though most years ending in "00" don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.

A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign governments.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 22, 1999.


THANKS LINKMASTER.....

I appreciate you staying on the job!

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), December 22, 1999.


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