It takes sellers and BUYERS, dosen't it? Without buyers, the price of the stock CANNOT go down! A holding pattern will ensue. Once the smoke begins to clear, many will own stock that is worthless that they cannot sell and hopefully no one had all their eggs in one basket! Those that did, dumb portfolio management. Everyone else will just have to have a modest year of returns. Nothing can happen that can "crash" the stock market. Que sera, sera.

-- Merry Christmas! (forget@idunno.com), December 20, 1999

Answers

The unsinkable ship, "Titanic".

Look to the East...

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 20, 1999.

Yes, it does take buyers. And there are always buyers at the right price.

Peace.

-- David L. Cawthon (dcawthon@okcu.edu), December 20, 1999.

Fantastic! Save me a seat on the NASDAQ rocket to Mars!

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), December 20, 1999.

You must have been raised on another planet. This assertion is so idiotic that I can't believe it's real. Of course the stock market can crash. If there are no buyers at a given price and there are people trying to sell, they will offer it at an increasingly lower price until there are buyers. If this starts to feed upon itself, the market will drop like a stone. If there are no buyers at any price, an essentially unimaginable situation, the stock will be absolutely worthless. If this happens to enough different stocks, the market will melt down to a tiny puddle.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 20, 1999.

I just want you to know, I'M in charge of Kookiness here!

It's a good challenge though, I gotta admit...

Kook

-- Y2Kook (y2kook@usa.net), December 20, 1999.

Where would you suppose these "sellers" put their damn money any way? There is not going to be a crash....EVER!!! Y2K or not! It is impossible for it to ever happen.

-- Merry Christmas! (forget@idunno.com), December 20, 1999.

And pigs can fly...

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), December 20, 1999.

Merry Christmas

Too much liquid cheer tonight?

-- Screamin' Demon (prepper@abouta4.com), December 20, 1999.

It's all paper that can and will disappear. Now you see it now you don't. When you invest cash into the market, it becomes invisible paper until you decide to cash out. Either you make money or lose money, but what is given back to you is paper only (not cold hard cash). What makes you think "Merry Christmas" that there could not be a crash? Go back and read the history books prior to the Great Depression and come on back and talk intelligently.

Here's an excellent essay on the Great Depression to further your education.

http://www.escape.com/~paulg53/politics/great_depression.shtml

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), December 20, 1999.

Bookmark this page for future access!

Crash Index: -10 Status:Crash Alert

Updated: DEC. 20, 1999

Click Here For Crash Alert Details

The Market Crash Index is 100% mechanical and is provided to us courtesy of IMF. This indicator has never failed to signal before a major market crash. It lets us know when the conditions are right for a crash so we can step to the side, or increase short positions.

How do I use the Market Crash Index??

There are just 2 simple rules:

When the Market Crash Index reaches a -10 we exit the market of any risky short-term long positions, and will increase the number and size of our short trades.

When the Crash Index then reaches a +6, it is then safe to start picking up long positions again, and is time to reduce the number of short trades in our portfolio.

It's as easy as that. This is not a market timing tool designed to constantly switch in and out around small corrections. This index is used as a leading indicator to warn of the possibility of a large negative drop in the market, (20% or more), as indicated by a failure in underlying market fundamentals.

Pitbull Investor Guidelines For a -10 PCI READING:

Exit or convert all margin positions to non-margin until the PCI signals all clear. Exit all riskier 4 letter stocks( 4 letter meaning Nasdaq or OTC issues) Increase short positions on selected stocks, (see Pitbull Shorting Selections)

This indicator has never failed to get us out in time for a major market crash, usually providing at least two weeks advance notice.

Past Crash Signals located at http://www.wwfn.com/PCIcharts.html

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-- bbb (bbb@bbb.com), December 20, 1999.

Now let's see if the buyers are the ones that cause trouble, let's pick up all the buyers in those white SUV's and throw them in those holding pens until they see the error of their ways.

Hey buddy, wanna buy a bridge?

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 21, 1999.

Please stop jinxing us.

-- mil (millenium@yahoo.com), December 21, 1999.

Here's a link to the essay on the Great Depression, written by a Harvard student. Bardou, in my genealogy research I had come across a letter from the bank to my great-grandfather, written in 1924, that said they were foreclosing on his farm. That got me to wondering if there were problems before the Great Depression even hit. The essay spells that out in spades. Thanks for a great link and all your contributions here.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), December 21, 1999.

From the ever-fascinating TheStreet.com:

Love Story

By James Padinha, Economics Correspondent

12/21/99 4:12 PM ET

Knowing Me Knowing You

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. -- You're a central banker.

You know this expansion will end just like all the others.

You know you and yours will end up killing it.

You already know you'll end up having to do too much all at once because you didn't do enough when you should have.

And you know you cannot cite an expansion that didn't end that way.

You know full well that the notion that three rate hikes to date are enough to cool the economy is ridiculous.

You know that the idea that not enough time has passed to judge their final impact is sillier still.

You know that the funds rate is currently no higher than it was in August 1998; you know it is not a coincidence that the economy is growing even faster now than it was then.

And you know that in one recent episode it took a 300 basis-point increase in the funds rate (to 6% from 3%), a 214 basis-point increase in bond yields (to 8.08% from 5.94%), and a 237 basis-point increase in mortgage rates (to 9.20% from 6.83%) to chop the economic growth rate to the tune of 1.3 percentage points.

You know that Jim Bianco is right when he points out that come the second day of the year, a whole lot of Americans will be looking at a bathtub full of water, a sport utility full of gas, and a mattress full of cash.

You know that the water and the gas don't much matter, but you're pretty certain that not a whole lot of that money is going back into the bank.

You know the bond market will not do your work for you.

You know that stocks are even happier in the wake of three tightenings than they were following three easings.

And you know they're laughing in your face.

Well?

What do you do?

Pure Morning

You do two things.

The switch to triple-zero means you had to be a sissy today, but you issue another message a few days into the New Year (and credit for this line of thinking goes to Jim). A formal statement, something through a mouthpiece, whatever. You get out there (provided that we're all still here) and say

"Hey. We couldn't be happier that this year thing went down without a hitch. Honestly. We're overjoyed. We do kinda have some bad news though. All that pumping we've been doing? At faster and faster rates for a while now? That's gonna have to stop."

And then, having given fair warning, you finally do something that'll actually be taken seriously. Something you ought to have done seven months prior.

You push through a half-point rate increase when you meet about a month later.

Epilogue

You're a central banker.

Cupid strikes.

Magic, pure magic, courses through your veins.

You begin to think that maybe, just maybe, this time is different.

And then it hits you.

The lover is different.

The words are different.

The locations are different.

And yet the last scene of the last act is the same as it ever was.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 21, 1999.