Does an Early Troop Call-out indicate how bad the remediation effort has been?

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Thesis: The gov't knew all along that the embedded chips situation and code remediation was not solvable. That by 1998 they were already developing the spin and cover?

Now, lets fast forward to the future:

Okay. It's December 28th. Troops, (not NG only) regular army troops are out in a National emergency prior to the CDC. The reason given is for security against Terrorism. In this forward looking scenario, what would we then conclude at that time? Would we conclude it was just for terrorism? OR would it be possible that terrorism all along was an excuse and a decoy to keep the people from panicking?

What is your take on this? Do you think an early deployment of troops is more indicative of potential terrorism and general public panic, or is it more to get the military pre-positioned and logistics in place early because they KNOW the chips problem is going to bring catastrophic results and they need to get out in front of it early with emergency setups before the infrastructure crashes?

Also, what would this do to those folks not planning on prepping til after Christmas or not finishing til after Christmas?

Your thoughts on all of this?

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 20, 1999

Answers

FWIW, my guess is that on the 28th Martial Law, or something very similar as an excuse to get the troops out, will be declared. It makes far more sense to get the troops mobilized then, as it will take a few days to do any way, and keep the situation under control from the beginning rather than wait and see what happens and *then* deploy and *try* and bring the situation under control.

As to wheather we will be provided the usual disinformation about what is really going on, I think that will be a given as that is standard miltary protocol. If the Internet is still up, then this could be a very differnt information war than the past. I believe the Internet will be up. If it is not then it would have to have been shut down deliberatly. Remember the whole foundation of the IP technology behind the Internet was designed by the DOD as a way to keep communications running in the event of a nuclear war, as it allows information to be routed autmatically through parts that are not destroyed.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 20, 1999.


Proverbably speaking "Dont do as I say do as I do" It is my belief that your thought rings true. I am not saying we will not have some nut or two or three decide to blow up something but since they are not worried or concerned for life what would they care. However, people in mass anywhere pose a great big problem if there is something going on that isnt up to par. Rodney King for instance. But to me this is about control and it has all along. At all times control the masses. No holes barred either. I believe we are toasted and roasted and tied to the spit. The only thing left for us is to be eaten. Remember we the masses are the users not the providers. However it should be interesting to see the providers doing all the work after the masses are gone.

-- Susan Barrett (sue59@bellsouth.net), December 20, 1999.

My response is, that it's all of the above. The government has known about computer problems for some time. They've also known that terrorists, computer hackers or otherwise have been planning a millinnium pop. But, it's a "Catch 22" in that anything that happens, related to y2k, can be blamed on terrorists in whatever form. On the obverse side of this coin, terrorist attacks can be blamed on a computer glitch.

The government can "spin" this as they please, or in whatever manner suits their purpose.

Troop alerts, mock invasions, and all have been going on for close to a year. Y2K has been known about for some two years, probably longer.

In my humble opinion, whatever occurs, has been planned for some time. No matter what "preps" have been made, no one is going to get it perfect. After that all of us will simply have to cope.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), December 20, 1999.


Check out WWII history.When germany occupied countries first they started with a show of overwhelming force.Lots of marching in the streets.Then curfews.And so on...people are more tolerant of tyranny when it's progressive.Look at the u.s. drug war for more examples.Nowadays it's acceptable for us troops to dress up as nazis kick in the wrong door,blow away the wrong people and then say "oops!" "We thought they were drug dealers!"

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), December 20, 1999.

Good stuff but hey folks... does an early call out indicate that its going to be much worse? In other words... if they're out on the 28th or 29th etc. could we say that the gov't is expecting a strong likelihood that the embedded chips systems are going to go down in Oil, Gas, Electricity, Phones, and other manufacturing operations that might pose serious safety risks even?

I guess, my thinking is that they'd probably only risk a revolt only if they REALLY REALLY REALLY thought the embeddeds systems might really bring down the infrastructures. Your thoughts on that aspect too?

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 20, 1999.



Won't happen anytime soon. Yes, the Guard may roll in the event of Rollover problems, but the Regular Army, (besides being forbidden by Posse Comitatus) from what I've heard, Is going to be, with the Exception of some Units, all on Block Leave through the Rollover.( The units that I've heard about are EOD,(explosives ordanace disposal) Chemical Units (guys and gals who know how to deal with a biohazzard like anthrax and sarin) and MPs.(Gotta keep the panickers on post in line)

Now before being flamed, understand the Military operates under the "Keep em in the Dark and feed them Shit" Principle. I.E. The Mushroom Directive. This glorious little euphanmism means that the ordinary Grunts, from the Battalion level, LT Col, down to the lowest private more than likely is not expecting a recall from leave. According to the rules, Under penalty of the Uniform Code of Military Justice (ha!) that if a Presidential Decree is issued, then all leaves, passes ectectect. will be cancelled, and that it is up to the individual soldier to either report to His unit or the nearest Military Installation within an allotted time. This was implemented during the State of Emergency declared right after Pearl Harbor in 1941.

As far as my sources, (none in the super high levels mind you) they all are fully expecting to be on leave through the New Year. Forts Cambell, Hood, Bragg and some others are currently on the Half Day Holiday schedule, and will be until January 3rd. Unless Martial Law is declared, or Old-Salami- Been-Rotten blows a nuke before the rollover, then don't expect to see Regular Army Troops on the streets.

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan101st@Aol.com), December 20, 1999.


I'm curious. Exactly what is it that you think Posse Comitatus prevents?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), December 20, 1999.

I think the government knows the chip problem is going to be catastrophic, in fact I betcha this latest "terrorist" that had allthe bomb material in the back of his trunk is really a decoy/patsy/actor being used so media can rant and rave about terrorism rather than letting your mind drift back to embedded chips. The only way JQP can figure out what hit him is if the entire grid everywhere collapsed. But if that happened, would JQP every really know? The ICC sure isn't gonna tell us.

-- dreamer (iainttelling@webtv.net), December 20, 1999.

This---I will never forget.

Watching--I believe it was the Intl. Monitoring report to Sen. Bennett and Dodd on C-span a couple months ago.

Quote to Senator Bennett from one of the panelists:

"Senator as an example we ACCIDENTLY found a chip in a chemical plant in Cairo that if we had not found it would have killed 1MILLION people">.

Would have liked it to have been an X-files show but it wasn't. Thats what makes it so surrel. It was REAL!!!!!!! The senators just nodded and thanked the panelist and moved onto the financial panelist who looked around and said. "there are no press in the room are there". He then went onto mention the trillion plus financial situation between Japan and the rest of the world ----which in his opinion was toast!!.

My ears don't believe what is being reported it is sooooo frigging unbelievable. That may be part of the problem. This warm toasty ship is a far cry from those freezing north atlantic waters. At least I have a life preserver. Most don't!!!!

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 20, 1999.


Question, was the watch found on the Algerian in Washington state compliant?

-- idunno (idunno@whoknows.com), December 20, 1999.


Sticking by my guns (no pum intended) the terrorist in Seattle was/is some sort of a decoy. Whatever has been planned is now in full swing, troops, chips, malitia, whatever.

All we can do is hang on for the ride, and it's gonna be bumpy. In this area the New Year is a non-event. Shelves are stocked full. No one seems to be buyng more or anything that appears to be for preparation.

The spin doctors have innoculated So. Calif very well.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), December 20, 1999.


Sure don't know how you guys outthink me. Just a few moments ago I was wondering if all of that was a decoy of sorts to impose a martial law of sorts, and you guys outthought me, dumb me. Now I feel I am as ignorant as the government. Hey folks, what we need is more law, we don't have enough. It is now to the point where if I stand, I feel I may be breaking a law, if I squat same thing, one or two sheets of toilet paper could envolk serious problems with the law. We need the military out there on every street corner to protect us from ourselves. I sure feel better knowing we are 99.9 percent compliant. So much so that I would double my prepping if I were financially able.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 20, 1999.

Martiual law on the 28th could be a valid terrorism threat. Could be... Then again...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 20, 1999.

While I do believe that the whole terrorism thing is smoke and mirrors (if you listen to the talking heads on TV, you would think there was one lurking beyond every corner), I can't completely rule out that there ARE sickos planning on some weird thing or another. However, I really do not think we will go into martial law on the 28th. Whoever said tyranny that comes incrementally is most successful was right on target. I predict first a curfew (for everyone's own good, ya know!), then maybe a state of national emergency. Martial law is the biggest hot button phrase a member of the gov or mil could utter.

In other words, we might basically HAVE martial law, but I doubt it will be ANNOUNCED as such.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), December 20, 1999.


And R.C. to answer your original question, yes, the media's sudden preoccupation with terrorism (esp domestic) DOES worry me. Mostly b/c the FBI, NSA, and CIA are ALWAYS concerned about domestic terrorism. But we don't ALWAYS hear about it on the evening news. Now we are hearing about it all the time. And if you really read between the lines, the stories are downright STRANGE (how did the media know ALL those details about that supposed terrorist in WA just hours after his arrest? And did anyone notice that they ASSUMED that it had to do with New Year's Eve since his supposed hotel reservation was at a hotel just BLOCKS from Seattle's planned millenium celebration? And they ASSUMED he was associated with Salami-Been- Rotten....toooooo convenient.....tooooo many details.....)

So my fear is that, yes, the gov and possibly mil DO think that the Y2K "bug" (design flaw) will be worse than they thought....and are trying to prepare people accordingly.....slowly. Think about it: people UNDERSTAND terrorism. If you are over the age of 14, you have been hearing about it most of your life. It has even hit here. But few people fully understand the complexity, the interdependence of our modern systems and how incredibly reliant on them we have all become. Terrorism is relatively simple compared to Y2K. Think about it.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), December 20, 1999.



Why the heck would they call out troops when the televisions still work. Governments like stability, they don't like people ticked off, displaced and unpredictable. The 28th will see more retrospective news shows on the accomplishements of the century and MTV blurb a thons then you can shake a stick at. Serious problems would be glossed over only until some type of emergency action was entirely neccessary and could provide some justification for the risk it entailed. If you look at how the government has handled Y2K issues from the start, the last thing they want to do is create unstable and unpredicatable situations. Granted a crystalnacht (sp) may always be a worry in the wings for a government, but in this case it would contradict all of the PR efforts of the government towards minimizing unusual behavior on the part of the populace.

-- PD (PaulDMaher@att.worldnet.com), December 20, 1999.

I do not think December 28th or December 29th or December 30th or December 31st will be any different from any other day this year. No troops are going to be called up, no martial law will be declared, nothing will happen before at least mid-January, 2000. What facts have you to support the assertion that martial law will be declared prior to next month, if then?

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 20, 1999.

R.C.,

FWIW, I do not expect a declaration of "martial law" prior to events that might serve as a pretext for such a declaration, but I do expect various deployments of troops just prior to rollover. Also, I am inclined to regard much, if not most, of the .gov chatter, and corresponding media chatter, about terrorist threats as a ruse or cover story (it's unfortunate that the phrase "cover story" is so ambiguous).

However, the task of guessing what someone knows about a non-trivial subject is prone to error. To be sure, I am not suggesting that either Koskinen or Clinton believes what either says in public.

A deployment of troops may be intended to deal with any portion of a considerable range of possibilities. It seems to me that with the data that is currently available, we can only guess at the specific reasons on which such a deployment may be based.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), December 20, 1999.


RC,

My take on the media's fascination with domestic terrorism & Y2K is this: dead computers don't bleed, scream, groan and die an ugly death. People do, however. Whether the .gov had made this an issue is irrelevent. The media would have done so anyway.

I had long ago determined that New Year's Eve would be an opportunity. A terrorist needs a date that will be easily remembered when he/she makes a "statement".

I still believe that the media truly believes that the computer issue will prove to be a "bump in the road". Reporters today are lazy. They haven't spent time, as we have, following this issue for years, wearing "BS Goggles" to cut through the crap to find some truth about what will occur at the CDC roll-over and beyond. Even the pollys on this forum have investigated and made an informed decision about what they think will happen. We may not agree with their analysis, but they have at least looked for an answer. The media have done no more than to read and pass along Press Releases. Its tragic that so many people had to die to gain them the First Amendment right to investigate and print their findings...what a waste.

I don't fear a military coup. I still believe in and trust the men and women of our military. They are, after all, people who have family, friends and loved ones whom they protect. If the military, regular or NG, are asken to handle civil unrest-crowd control, my fear is the "Kent State Syndrome". Soldiers, not trained for the mission they are assigned, given the wrong equipment to accomplish that task who panic and shoot. What's lost in the history of the Kent State incident is that the NG soldiers were themselves just kids assigned crowd control and issued rifles to do so. U.S. soldiers are not trained for that task. They were frightened and reacted with deadly force. That's my fear.

-- Darby (DarbyII@AOL.com), December 20, 1999.


Could someone please enlighten me as to why everyone is fixated on Dec. 28?

-- Bill Byars (billbyars@softwaresmith.com), December 21, 1999.

Whenever there is rumor or talk of calling out the troops, the one important question is always:

ARE THEY BEING ISSUED AMMUNITION?

Recent posts (Fort Hood threads) seem to indicate that at least in training they were.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), December 21, 1999.


http://insidedenver.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=Y2K-ALERT-12-20-99&cat=AN

[For Educational and Research, etc.]

EMERGENCY CENTERS WILL BE OPEN IN ALL 50 STATES FOR Y2K

By THOMAS HARGROVE, Scripps Howard News Service, December 20, 1999

- Public concern over the millennium computer bug has prompted all 50 U.S. governors to activate their emergency operations centers on New Year's Eve in one of the largest crisis preparedness mobilizations in peacetime history.

Thousands of state employees will crowd into communications centers, National Guard armories and local courthouses throughout the United States. Tens of thousands of others _ especially technicians with computer skills _ have been ordered not to take extended vacations during the holidays so that they are available if problems occur.

Emergency management officials in many states report that the mobilization will be the largest in their history. Several said not even the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when scattered civil defense workers were put on alert for fear of nuclear war, prompted as large a mobilization as is scheduled for New Year's Eve.

The nervousness stems from the possibility of problems developing in some computers and embedded circuits that read only the last two digits of a date. They may mistake 2000 for 1900 and could malfunction.

"The dilemma for us has been how to be prepared without creating alarm," said Ronn Padgett, executive director of Kentucky's Disaster and Emergency Services. "It's rare that we know the date and time of a potential emergency. So Y2K has certainly been a new experience for us."

Kentucky will call up 400 National Guard troops to observation posts in all 120 counties and within the state's 47 armories. Padgett said several hundred civilians also will be asked to work Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 to monitor communications and utilities operations, answer telephone calls from the news media and fretful citizens, and to prepare immediate field reports for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

"Really, there was ample reason for all of the states to decide to open their EOCs," he said. A survey of emergency management or Y2K preparedness officials in all 50 states by Scripps Howard News Service found that every central state crisis center will be opened by at least 5 p.m. on Dec. 31. Several states plan to mobilize their top emergency staffs two or three days in advance and will keep their crisis centers operating well into the new year.

A similar survey conducted in June found that only 26 states were committed to full mobilization of their emergency staffs.

"This is proof of a collective common sense among the states," said Nula Forde, spokeswoman for the Connecticut Department of Information Technology.

Connecticut officials have ordered at least 300 government workers to be at their monitoring posts on New Year's Eve, although only a third will be stationed in the Emergency Operations Center in Hartford. Most will be stationed in smaller centers in each of the state's 16 major agencies, including at least 70 at the state's Department of Information Technology.

California officials will activate all three regional emergency centers and have constructed two special Y2K monitoring centers at a former automobile maintenance warehouse owned by the California Highway Patrol.

"We realize that it is important to show the public that we are monitoring, that we are prepared," said Eric Lamoureux, spokesman for the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.

The state is putting the finishing touches on a Joint Information Center to monitor events inside California, as well as a Follow-the-Sun Command Center that will observe the severity of Y2K-related problems in the 19 time zones east of California. Both centers _ which are being carpeted, given drop-down ceilings, and equipped with computers and telecommunication gear _ will be disassembled after New Year's Day.

"It is unique in that we know that something is coming so far in advance. And we know there will be a need to let the public know what is or, hopefully, what is not happening." Lamoureux said.

The extensive mobilization comes even though state authorities overwhelmingly believe their own computer systems will suffer few, if any, breakdowns. Forty-nine of the 50 state spokesmen answered "no" when asked, "Are there any specific computer systems in your state that you are worried will not operate after Dec. 31?"

"Any program could fail," said Scott Elliott, spokesman for the Pennsylvania Governor's Office of Administration. Even though he was the lone voice of gloom, he noted that Pennsylvania technology officials have labored for three years to fix the Y2K glitch and he could not identify a specific critical system expected to fail.

Most states are reporting a very high level of confidence, often citing a readiness rate in which 98 percent or more of all so-called "mission critical" computer systems are already prepared and tested.

"We've spent perhaps a million hours of labor fixing our systems," said Mike Benzen, chief information officer for Missouri. "We feel confident we're ready."

One of the important duties emergency managers will face on New Year's Eve will be to send regular status reports to FEMA in Washington, which has created a special system to receive updates on any failures in power, water or telecommunications systems anywhere in the nation.

But many of the state managers said their biggest priority in committing to such a large mobilization is public relations.

"It's important to demonstrate to the public that we don't expect any problems, but that we are prepared to deal with anything," said Lamoureux.

(Scripps Foundation Wire reporters Sheila Edmundson, Bernard McGhee, Carolyne Park, Geoffrey Redick, and Jeff Rose contributed to this story. Thomas Hargrove is a reporter for Scripps Howard News Service.)

-- The Postman (RingsTwice@l.ways), December 21, 1999.


Bill,

It is a good question you raise and I guess I should have stated my reasons for mentioning it as opposed to other dates. Happens when I try to be brief sometimes.

Dec 28th is the day the National Y2K Command Center Bunker is activated. Other state versions and perhaps some city versions will also activate. Yet others may not activate til a closer point to CDC.

Of course there is also the factor to consider regarding the anecdotal information posted here and elsewhere regarding stories of soldiers relaying details of future assignments for Y2K and in at least a few cases the 28th seems to pop up. For me though, I used it more or less arbitrarily based upon the above, but it could be the 27th or 30th for the purpose of my question which was for input on whether an early callout could be an indication that the gov't really felt that a lot of the infrastructure (embedded systems) stood a strong percentage of likelihood of going down.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 21, 1999.


Cody,

I didn't assert it as a fact. I only asked for opinions on the significance IF...IF troops were to be called out early ... would it mean that the gov't really thinks we've got a seriously high risk of embeddeds posing a problem? There's no right or wrong answer just an opinion as we're not debating a fact. Sorry if it was perceived differently. It was unintentional on my part.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 21, 1999.


R.C. -

If troops are posted extensively on 28th Dec then yes it will be much worse than any here think. Reasoning? This would really be against the grain of current management think, ie - don't do anything unless you have to do it. Management is not proactive and these days even less so. So for there to be any proactive efforts would indicate a severe 1) overreaction or 2) concern.

Likelihood? Slim to none at this time since we do not see any major fedmil logistical movements at all. If anywhere I'd expect to see this in the Worshington DC area since it is the seat of national gov. Possibly they are thinking that Quantico would be their base of mil ops and so don't need to raise any alarm by more public moves.

Considering the possible outcomes one could make a strong case for keeping the military (federal) as far away from civilian situations as possible. Why? If they were bogged down defending Walmarts and then there was foreign provocations we would be completely unable to respond since all our troups would be easily absorbed in trying to secure the nation's homelands. The States are responsible for their own security internally and any requests for help may not be answered by the Federal government.

If anything I could see the .mil interested in doing 'training' excersizes against urban rioting only in a limited way as a means of toughening up our troups for urban warfare overseas, say in Europe should a fascist Russia turn to attack.

Militaries are designed to fight model wars. War scenarios are laid out according to various priorities and the fighting and logistical forces are organized to respond to that type of war(s) which are considered most probable. Our current mil organization is designed to stamp out fires before they become wars. Quick strike, overwhelming force CONCENTRATED to destroy the enemies will to think of continuing the conflict...and so to avert a real war.

Current 'posture' is not designed to control even a small nation, let alone a home land. This is an entirely different type of mission. It is a protracted and difuse policing operation over a huge scale and it would be completely unmanageable with the current structure of our mil. If anything they would use Federal troups to 'attack' 'terrorist' situations internally and possibly to protect domestic nuclear or mil logistical operations, but little more than that IMHO.

The State militias ('national' guards) will be the only mil most of this nation will see if they see it at all. I could see a situation where governors institue drafts to beef up State based NG's in order to quell urban issues, banditry on interstate highways, gang wars, etc.

Just my 2" worth for your consideration.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), December 21, 1999.


FWIW - Having been involved in a great many field training exercises in my 20+ year military career, I presume that the Y2k Center will be activated on the 28th in order to run thru several Y2k response scenarios to fine-tune the -machine-. While they may be running some exercises now, a couple of -full dress rehearsals- are needed to shake things out and get the people used to 24 hr. operations. The last may even be a media event if the first one goes smoothly.

-- KC (c0mpuguru@earthlink.net), December 22, 1999.

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