Alright, folks, what's your guesstimate for the first nation to experience bank runs pre-rollover? Which country will be shown on CNN experiencing pre-2000 bank anxiety and mayhem? Indonesia? Australia? Poland? South Africa? My guess is that it'll be one of those that'll start "heightened withdrawal activity" here in the U.S. Which country's financial system will start shitting the bed first? I'm not even talking about a verifiable Y2k problem, just garden variety bank runs because of lost confidence in the system.

-- Kurt Ayau (Ayau@iwinet.com), December 19, 1999

Answers

I don't think there will be any pre-rollover bank runs. Why should the people of any other country be more concerned than the sleeping sheep here? NOTHING whatsoever is going to happen before 01/01/2000; it's going to be frustratingly normal until then.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 19, 1999.

Hey, Kurt, excuse my inability to discern your Nationality. I am sure, no one hopes the run will be on their country. Let us, keep our heads above water.

-- Folks still waiting (hooves@watercrest.com), December 20, 1999.

If I had to say anywhere Kurt I would say Japan.

Reasons:

1. They have a very high per capita savings rate. They have loads of moola...

2. Just after rollover society will go into "oil shock", just like in 1973 (a recession caused by a mere 4-6% cutback), after it becomes apparent that Mexico, Venezuela, Saudia Arabia, Iraq and all the rest have royally enscrewed their "remediation...

[hint - Iraq is already FOF, Saudi is toast (see various threads, plus I used to work there, believe me, they are toast...), Russia - say no more...]

3. When it sinks in that oil/refining has gone kaboom panic will set in.

4. Japan is a net importer of oil. It has no reserves at all. It depends 100% on oil to function.

5. No oil = no Japan.

6. Japan goes down = the USA goes down.

7. It gets very ugly very quickly.

I hope you all have gold at home somewhere safe - I've been saying this for ages. gold is now $285 - go get some more while you still have a few days!!!!!!!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

Australia.

-- GA Russell (ga.russell@usa.net), December 20, 1999.

Phlegm City, Iowa........

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 20, 1999.

Phlegm City, Iowa? Why, I've been to Phlegm City, Iowa, and let me tell you, Phlegm City, Iowa, couldn't cough up a bank run if it had a hairball made of $20 bills stuck in its throat.

-- Kurt Ayau (Ayau@iwinet.com), December 20, 1999.

hey andy, you can't eat gold you stupid S.O.B

-- andy (.....@.....), December 20, 1999.

C'mon Craig you spoilsport...

picked a damned bank-run country fer 'crissakes!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

You can you dozy bastard, but it doesn't have any calories and you'll have a painful time on the shitter.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

Maybe it would be easier to guess this:

Once Y2K hits with surprise devastation, which country will continue to conduct itself civilly while working to repair?

Is there any country left which can pull together and not go beserk and rampage when the lies are outted?

-- curious (any@good.country.left?), December 20, 1999.

Yes curious.

The Vatican.

If they lose it we're all doomed... :o)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

My guess is the news media as always will not say a thing about it. So to find out we will have to surf the web. Our news media is such a no nothing farce that they should be handed a law suit for acting.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 20, 1999.

. . .According to recent newsarticle. . .which stated:

"The financial sector in most places appears ready. But even though the software itself may be fine, Brazil's banks could collapse if there are mass withdrawals, said Antonio Gustavo Matos do Vale, the Central Bank official overseeing Y2K preparations.

Similar concerns were voiced in countries like Argentina, Ecuador,and the resource-rich Caribbean island of Trinidad, where officials were girding for a wave of robberies of people carrying their savings around. They have urged depositors to leave money where it is.

Central banks in many places promise to make more funds available to ensure liquidity. Brazil's government-run consumer protection agency, Procon, urged clients to get bank statements in December to check against statements in January. The warning came after Banco Itau, Brazil's second-largest private bank, sent a letter to some clients citing a payment due on Jan. 3, 1900.

More of this article can be seen at the following site:

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGIMPVAOF2C.html

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

The Christmas Islands.

-- Me (me@me.me), December 20, 1999.

Tonga Taboo.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

One thing is likely: the Canadian will NOT panic in the street. Not only are they largely possessing of that British politeness and self-restraint, it's too darn cold. Cold can be a big factor in standing in line for cold cash. Therefore, my guess for the first panic, would be something like the Cayman Islands -- maybe there will be an "electronic" bank run with all the tax dodgers trying to convert the "blips" into hard-money assets at the last minute. Got gold?

-- Sishy (dromano03@snet.com), December 20, 1999.

Japan and for the same reasons Andy gave.

They are vulnerable.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), December 20, 1999.

The Vatican. If they lose it we're all doomed... :o)

Italy will implode into the Vatican. Also why wouldn't St. Peter's be a prime target for rollover terrorists?

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), December 20, 1999.

No T.V. if its in the U.S. just unsustantiated rumours over the net. If its overseas it will be downplayed, details page 14.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 20, 1999.