I won't go into detail for my reasons, but I have posted here before some possible scenarios. I have extensive education in the field of human psychology. That, my friends, is one of the only "predictable" things in this world. (Well, relatively so...). Anyway, I believe that most of the DGI's and people who claim Y2K victory and virtual noneventfullness (you like that word?) are, in fact, preparing for a catastrophy. People do not like going against the mainstream grain and being ostracized or being made to feel "foolish". Hence, the silent preparedness of our society that is happening right now. People will say whatever needs to be said to make themselves feel accepted and sane. This is a perfect case. One more thing..... I have upgraded my original scenario...based on "media spin" and government propaganda to divert concern, I now feel that a 7 or 8 is in the workings here. I speak to many executives and many people who are very technically educated. Many of them publicly denounce Y2K problems as I have mentioned above and are in fact preparing for the worst. Just last week I was on a plane in first class with a jumior executive from IBM. He and I were exchanging polite conversation and I played the "polly" role by asking him, " What do you think of all of these stories you hear about people hoarding food and cash for the millenium date rollover?" , "Do you think they're crazy?" His EXACT words to me were, " I'm doing it!" It didn't surprise me....my education hasn't failed me yet. Best of luck to all.

-- an observer (justwatchin@home.now), December 17, 1999

Answers

get real

-- ok (yeah@right.sure), December 17, 1999.

One IBM exec is preparing. Good for him. Here in one of the largest cities in the country, NOBODY is preparing. Believe me. And it has NOTHING to do with being ostracized.

"Behind closed doors 90% of this nation is doing the same thing that we are..." You don't know what you're talking about. I would be shocked if it was 10%. However, I do agree with you that a 7 or 8 is in the workings, and that's largely BECAUSE nobody is preparing.

-- (better@observemore.closely), December 17, 1999.

I really hope this is true. I want my neighbors to be as least as prepared as I am, even if they prefer to lie about it.

-- this part will (be@over.soon), December 17, 1999.

The director of emergency services here in Butte County CALIF told me that his office had done a survey (in August?) and 50 to 60% of the folks were prepared. He said he had talked to a lady who told him, "I have enough cigarettes for a month and coffee for a month, so I'm ready for anything." Har har.

The Director talks out the side of his mouth. What survey? Who did it? What questions? Not believable.

G North had a posting from Grants Pass OR (I believe was the town) and North called it the most aware city in the US, and the mayor of that town estimated that 5% of the residents had prepared.

I would think that number holds for my county, but other places? No way 90% are stocking up. Just talking to my neighbors and others tells me that.

-- johno (jobriy2k@yahoo.com), December 17, 1999.

If 90% were prepping no food or anything else would be on the shelves. A huge percentage have never even heard of Y2K! This topic requires some thinking skills and reading ability excluding many more sheeple. Most will not act until disaster is staring them in the face.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 17, 1999.

For a real good expose of what those with an "extensive education in the field of human psychology" do for JQP please visit this site...

http://www-douzzer.ai.mit.edu:8080/conspiracy.html

-- I'm not taking (Meds@psycobablecrap.com), December 17, 1999.

No they are not. As much as it would make you feel better to believe it, - no they are not. Nobody, not, nada, uh uh, they are not preparing.

-- homestead2 (homestead@monroecty.net), December 17, 1999.

If 90% of folks were preparing as you say, we would have had shortages and possible food or bank runs by now.

The JIT system that is in place would have collapsed if this were the case. The system to maximize profits by non-inventory or low inventory supplies has yet to burp. Habits have not yet noticably changed to affect the JIT system.

Have talked to many officials and businessmen that have told me personally (including an officer of the Federal Reserve Bank) that if the American people changed their buying and cash habits by as much as 4-8%, the system couldn't handle the demand, and we would have shortages which would lead to panic which would lead to runs on food and cash.

We have seen none of that.

Perhaps in the circle you travel, there are ones who secretly are preparing as you say...but the American people by-in-large, have blind faith in the gods of technology and convenience and government to fix any potential problem that may impact them.

Corporations have the same blind faith, that the OTHER guy may have some Y2K issues, but that they will sail right on through them. Their IT guys will fix any possible problems that crop up. Or, they bought all-new PC's so they won't have any problems with their old 486's.

Problem solved they believe.

The proof is in the complacency and stocked shelves everywhere.

Of all the local and professional people I knew back in suburbia, MAYBE 1% take Y2K seriously enough to make even 3-day storm preparations. Out in farm country out here...where I expected the salt-of-the-earth folks to be a little more self-reliant and prepared....another big dissapointment. If we're lucky, maybe 4% of all the local folk and farmers I know out here are preparing for ANY kind of disaster (The earthquake false alarm of a few years ago did some major damage to the preparedness notion out here).

Only 1 church within 200 miles of me is making preparations. The other churches are persecuting them for being fools and lacking faith. I've talked with several evangelists and ministers of various denominations, they either think Y2K is a joke, or they know of NO congregations preparing for disruptions.

Secretly perhaps deep-down, some folks worry about being caught off- guard if there are disruptions...but most have faith in our system, that they will fix it. After all, they have too much to lose if they don't fix it they say. And this comes from a member of the congregation that is preparing for disruptions. Even in that church, more than half are doing nothing to make ready for Y2K.

All I see evidence of is apathy and blind faith. I wish that your assertion was true. I really do wish that 90% of Americans had prepared, even if just a little. If they did, I'd have a much better outlook on weathering the crap about to hit the fan.

But from where I sit, I see nothing but "Things will stay the same, and only get better".

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), December 17, 1999.

"Only 1 church within 200 miles of me is making preparations. The other churches are persecuting them for being fools and lacking faith. I've talked with several evangelists and ministers of various denominations, they either think Y2K is a joke, or they know of NO congregations preparing for disruptions"

YES,isn't this ironic? The debonkers say that preppers are religious freaks and yet there are no local churches that I know of that are doing any preparing. Seems to me that every church should always have an emergency aid capability. Stuff happens, despite the Good News.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), December 17, 1999.

You may have an "extensive education", but it doesn't show in your three main points:

Your conclusion: You say 90% are preparing behind closed doors

Your supporting data: General anecdotes about "many executives and many people" you speak to and one anecdote about an IBM junior executive. Your anecdotes seem to contradict every national poll using scientific sampling techniques, so every poll must be wrong.

Your conclusion: You "feel" a 7 or 8 on the 1 to 10 scale

Your supporting data : none

Your conclusion: Preparing for a catastrophy means people are expecting a catastrophy

Your supporting data: General claims about extensive education in human psychology. ... Did it ever occur to you that preparing for serious problems does not mean you expect serious problems? For example, I expect Y2K to be a 2 or 3 on a scale of 1 to 10, and have high confidence Y2K problems will be under 5 on that 1 to 10 scale. If I had a risk-adverse personality, I might prepare for an 8 out of 10, even though I "expect" only a 2.

-- Richard Greene (Rgreene2@ford.com), December 17, 1999.

an observer:

I remember the song but not the words. Just what is it that you are doing "behind closed doors".

Best wishes,,,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

Wrong. Essentially no one is preparing. Maybe 5% of the US population, 1% of the world.

We lost the battle to build a grassroots prep movement. That part of y2k is over.

-- a (a@a.a), December 17, 1999.

I live in a middle sized city of about 75,000. The local news media does mention Y2K occasionally, but it is with a sort of tongue in cheek sort of attitude. It has never been publisized in any manner, otther than on the positive side, the mild bump in the road sort of thing. In our local church the preacher has not once mentioned a thing pertaining to Y2K. Our community is totally out of touch with reality. Thank God for the internet. Otherwise I would have not made the first preparation. Because of the net, I have prepped for the worst, while praying for the best. With my scimppy resoruces that isn't much, but it will give me and mine a slight chance at survival.

-- Frank J. Surface (Fsur439@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

I'm afraid what you will see is that on the 26th, the next biggest retail day in the nation, the media will do coverage of that (biggest headlines) and then the news will begin pounding the airwaves about Y2K. After the Pokemon, Furbie and Beanie Baby rush is over.

On the 27th, you will see nothing but warnings of Y2K from media. People will then see the impending deadline and they will be inundated with Y2K stories because the media (predictably) always jumps to the next biggest story. Controlled (or maybe uncontrolled)panic will ensue; last minute runs to the retailers to get ready and TS begins to hit the fan.

From the 27th on I think things will truley go to the dogs. Media hounds will be all over the Y2K issue and it will be a nuthouse. This is what I THINK will happen. Anyway, I will be at the house during this time, watching, listening and just being glad that I have no reason at that point to be out in it.

It is already getting bad, if you watch the news. People carrying explosives, system quirks, you name it. Ivan is on edge because Willie and Madeleine (sp) are pushing them over Chechnya. China is po'ed about Tiawan and are building their Navy. Bin Ladin wants to take a punch, you name it. Solar flares highest in decades threatening EMP blackouts of electronics systems at the hieght of Y2K concerns. Perilous times my friends. It may get pretty interesting. where will I be ?

HOME SWEET HOME (while it lasts ***grin***).

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 17, 1999.

Observer,
If your statement is true, the folks in my environment are truly masters of clandestine activities, and most assuredly they would make the best poker players in the world. Who knew they were actually squirreling stuff away while looking so relaxed and unconcerned? What a relief!

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

observer,

I'm reasonably certain that my "education in the field of human psychology" is at least as extensive as your own. My study, observations, and contacts lead me to a very different, and opposite, conclusion about the citizen's state of preparation. Still, to ask that anyone be persuaded to adopt my opinion solely on the basis of my curriculum vitae would qualify me for an Axis II diagnosis with which you may be familiar :-D.

Regarding your statement that human psychology "is one of the only predictable things in this world"...well, I'm speechless.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), December 17, 1999.

Rob...

The Media will probably be speaking the party line after Christmas. Kosky will see to this. Matter of fact He has already spoken to the Media Press Club. All we will hear is coverage for Millinium Celebrations.

However, IMHO many others have been quietly preparing. Our trade deficits probably account for part this preperation. First Quarter may reflect this as the country buckles down, whatever the reality of the CDC.

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), December 17, 1999.

Call up Ladyloopy in Phoenix. You two are perfect for one another.

-- (cavscout@fix.net), December 17, 1999.

I grant that there are probably people who are preparing, just very silently. However, their number is very small, much like the rest of us.

Today, at an Ace Hardware store, I was able to find 10 boxes of "strike anywhere" matches; I bought all of them. The checkout girls started trying to guess what I needed all those matches for; they never it connected to Y2K.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), December 17, 1999.