Since I trade energy futures I very closely monitor weather patterns this time of year. I have a meterologist (Freese Notis Weather or Energy.net)that does a great job of looking out 10 days to 2 weeks. I can't link in his forecast this morning because its a high $ private service but suffice it to say that weather patterns are shifting for the Eastern 2/3 of the US and it looks like its gonna get downright frigid with several cold high pressure systems tracking down from Western Canada into the Central and Eastern US starting next week. Freese Notis thinks its a persistent enough pattern. It will get very cold around Christmas Eve in the Midwest and then hit the East Coast a day or so later. FN sees a day or two of moderation probably followed by another dip in temps for the rollover.

EGads! This will get people excited. The timing of these cold snaps could get the sheeples into a real hoarding stampede. You've been warned.

-- (Frozen) Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 17, 1999

Answers

Freese Notis? Freeze Notice?

Hmm...

-- Tim the Y2K nut (tmiley@yakko.cs.wmich.edu), December 17, 1999.

It has been very warm thus far on the god-forsaken Liberal oops, uh, er, East-coast. The air temps might drop a great deal if that cold Canadian air comes down, but there won't be hard freezes anytime soon. Too much heat is still in the ground.

Thank God.

-- Anonymous999 (Anonymous999@Anonymous999.xxx), December 17, 1999.

DS, I believe you entered the chatroom too late last evening to hear one of our regular, albeit anonymous, participants beating you to that pronouncement - namely, that the woolly bear caterpillar has forecast a cold middle of the winter. So, consider your story confirmed.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), December 17, 1999.

Downstreamer,

This is most critical for the oil refineries in the midwest and the northeast...where those refineries would be vulnerable to severe candling problems with crude oil lines IF the electricity from utilities goes out. The crude oil lines must be kept above 40 degrees farenheit...and usually that is provided by steam systems fueled by electricity from local utilities because refineries own main power houses just don't have that kind of capacity. They primarily supply electricity for backup safety lighting plus control room lighting and power to computers as well as nearby offices.

Now, IF the cold spell is very strong and dips far enough south it could perhaps spell trouble for refineries in northern Texas. Only a real, Siberian Express with power could muscle down far enough to perhaps create troubles in say Houston or New Orleans. At least that is my understanding.

HEY... is there anyone out there in the Houston or New Orleans area that would care to comment on how cold temperatures can get in your area in the winter? How cold do you remember it getting on New Years in the past? Do you recall very many New Years in the past where temps might dip well below 40 degrees at night? I'm suspecting that it is rare but happens once in a while. So my guess at this distant juncture would still say unlikely to catch most of the southern refineries in a quandry...probably still only a very remote chance...

What about northern Texas or Western Texas like Lubbock, Midland? I think it can get pretty nippy in that neck of the woods too. Any comments yea or nay would be appreciated.

This weather situation certainly bears monitoring for measuring potential impacts on the oil industry.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 17, 1999.

R.C.

I've lived in both Midland for about 10 years and am now in Houston for about the past seven years. I can't tell you what the "average" temperature on New Years is, but one year in Midland in the 1980's we had one of the biggest snowfalls of the season, probably three feet. I'm positive that the average low temperature is in the low 20's and single digits are not uncommon.

Houston is far more hit and miss. We've had some years where it never got below freezing in the winter, although we've been in the upper 20's twice this week already. On New Years, it might be a low of 40. It's also possible that we'll be in the middle of an ice storm. The lowest it's been since I moved here was about 13 degrees. That devastates the city, because the pipes can't handle it and they burst. Plus, people routinely burn themselves up with space heaters. It's already happened a couple of times this week (the fires, not the pipes).

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), December 17, 1999.

Downstreamer.

A week ago i was watching an extended weather forecast that echo'd exactly what your post states. The northeast extending westward into Ohio is to expect " WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS " and from Ohio westward into the southern portions of Missouri " BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ". For the same time period as well

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), December 17, 1999.

Downstreamer,

Were you here when we had the infamous "October Surprise" in 1996? My brother's power was off for a week or better...what a mess! And it wasn't even really *cold* cold then. I'm kind of surprised many folks around here have forgotten what that was like. One TV station (KCTV-5) had to broadcast from their underground garage using generators.

Or how about when it got so cold for a long time back in 1988? A week or better of sub-zero temps, the daytime high hitting "0" *sometimes*...Or the New Year's Day ice storm in 1993? Lots of power out then, too, and very cold.

FWIW, my M-I-L is a Master Gardener, and noted that the acorns, berries and other seeds this year were prolific, supposedly a sign of a cold, hard winter.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

Dog Gone,

You must have been in Houston about 8-9 years ago during that Christmas Eve cold snap where 30,000 homes had water pipes that busted. Mine was one of them. I flew back Christmas Day and found my house flooded. No one could get thru to plumbers by phone. I had to stand in front of a plumbing company truck at a stop sign to get someone to come and help myself and my neighbors. It took about 2 weeks for all home repairs throughout the city to be complete.

-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), December 17, 1999.

If an enormous crop of acorns indicates a cold winter ahead, N. Georgia has got one coming for sure. I have never seen such a heavy acorn fall as occurred here in October and November (southern Gwinnett County, exurb of Atlanta).

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), December 17, 1999.

Dog Gone...did you notice that no one from about Austin down can drive in freezing weather? Lived in Beaumont for several years [about halfway between Houston and New Orleans] as well as other parts of Texas. Was kind of funny back in '86 or so when they closed the highways and I was out tooling around in my CJ-7 [with NO top..BRRRR!!!] Florida is the same way...hits 40 and people freeze to death.
Tom...you should have been saving those 'corns...extra FREE supplies of flour!

-- Satanta (HypothermiaHereWe@re.com), December 17, 1999.

Cheryl, RC & Dog One,

That Dec of '89 Gulf Coast cold snap was a memorable one for sure. It hit the oil market with a double whammy. Not only did it escalate heating oil demand but according to API stats it took out 20% of PADD II refining capacity. Those Gulf Coast refineries are just not insulated and prepared like the ones up north. I can't remember how cold it got in Houston but it seems to me it was in the single digits. What I do remember is the NYMEX heating oil going from about 65 cents/ gal to $1.05 in about 4 sessions.

This cold snap for Christmas isn't going to be anywhere near that. I just got excited this morning when I posted this because its been so warm and it looks like the second wave of this cold front is going to coincide with the rollover. After looking at a few more maps and models, it'll prob be 10-12 degrees below normal, not bone crunching frigid.

Good points though, RC, power outages on all the Northern tier refineries+ cold weather = refinery trouble.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 17, 1999.

To all who responded w/ weather info... thanks for the assistance.

Downstreamer,

Thanks for the tips and info.

Also, of course, if we do get a cold front barrelling into the deep south of Texas and New Orleans, AND IF... power outages occur it will really whammy those southern refineries as bad or worse than the northern ones...though even the northern ones rely upon utility co. power to keep their crude lines warm.

I was hoping and kinda figuring we'd luck out with a warm spell and most of the northern refineries wouldn't be put at risk of cold temp issues on top of all else...but IF these early forecasters are indeed correct then there may be more aspects at risk to complicate matters further. Well, let's hope not. I'd sure hate to have to rely on back up heating. It's no fun without power. Did that a couple of years ago after some summer storms rolled thru and lived without power for 4 days (almost 5) in the middle of a summer heat wave. It was bad then, but outages in the winter... potential to be much more miserable. Folks who've not been thru it don't realize that folks without power can become pretty testy after about 3 or 4 days.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 17, 1999.

You all are making Mr. Koskinens predictions of problems being caused by bad weather rather than Y2K look like a possibility.

I am hoping that the weather is bright, warm and beautiful to keep the spinners honest.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), December 17, 1999.

western Pa looks like a cold one, tremendous apple and fruit crop this year, branches breaking under the load of the fruit, old farmers talk about this as natures way of preparing the animals for a very harsh winter.

last time i saw this we had twice the average snow fall and 15 degrees temp drop from the normal. also had a blizzard in march.

hold on to your hats, looks like a bumpy ride into the next year.

hillbilly

-- hillbilly (hillbilly@keystone.com), December 18, 1999.

I live in the Dallas area....and grew up here. It is hit and miss. This biggest thing to remember about weather here is that it is very unpredictable. This past spring, we had this weird, really really early warm spell that forced my plum tree to bloom, but hey, plum trees aren't self-pollinating, they need the bees, but the bees weren't out yet (it was Feb) so no pollination=no plums=no plum jelly for my family this year. Then, the next month, in March, we had SNOW. Quite unusual in March. And not just some little bit of snow, either. Not inches, but anything more than a little flurry is a lot here.

Now, we have temps in the upper teens predicted for Sunday night (the 19th) going into Monday, which is quite cold for before Christmas.

Basically, we don't really have winter until late December. It lasts until early March. It is mostly only cold temps, maybe we go below freezing several times. We might ice over once, maybe twice. Some light little snow flurries, MAYBE. If we have too warm of a winter, then it sucks to be us in the spring, because all the little buggies aren't nicely killed off and we have a neat little plague of 'em. Two winters ago that happened. Last winter was just average. We need a good hard winter to kill off the bugs.

Anyway, I am kind of hoping for cold temps at the rollover. Two reasons: people TEND to not run around outside looting and rioting the colder it is. Especially when the temps are colder than what those people are used to.

Reason two is that the food in our freezer might stay ok longer. Long enough for us to eat all of it. It's not a whole lot. But if the temps at night stay at freezing or below, it won't be a problem. Unless people are climbing into our backyard to steal a frozen chicken or two.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), December 19, 1999.

Yet again, I am heartily glad to be in Australia.

Hope it doesn't get too cold, you have my sympathy.

RonD

-- Ron Davis (rdavis@ozemail.com.au), December 19, 1999.

Official National Weather Service Forecast Map -

shows Temperature (top map) and Precipitation (bottom map) Forecasts for next 6-10 days:

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 19, 1999.

Official National Weather Service Forecast Map -

shows Temperature (top map) and Precipitation (bottom map) Forecasts for month of January 2000.

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 19, 1999.

For additional forecast maps extending thru Jan-Feb-Mar 2001, go to:

Climate Prediction Center Multi-Season Outlooks Page

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 19, 1999.