http://www.detnews.com/1999/nation/9912/16/12160169.htm

Europeans scoff at Y2K predictions

U.S. exaggerates, they say; others fear it may cost Union $210 billion

By Angela Doland / Associated Press

PARIS -- Perceiving little chance of major disruptions from the millennium computer bug, most Europeans are stocking up on champagne for New Year's, not canned soup and flashlights.

Western European governments may be a bit last-minute and mostly low-key about the threat, but they're confident they have pretty much dealt with the problem.

Not that Western Europe has dismissed Y2K. It's just that the majority of these countries had already handled the other great fin-de-siecle technology challenge -- updating computer systems for the new euro single currency, introduced nearly a year ago.

To many, the Y2K bug is largely a U.S. fascination that translates badly on this side of the Atlantic.

"It's clear we'll have problems, but the Americans have enormously exaggerated Y2K," said Elise Colette, 23, a French communications student.

Except in the United Kingdom, parts of Scandinavia and a few other nations, European news media have not been infected by Y2K mania. Large-scale public awareness campaigns have been the exception, not the rule.

By government accounts, Western European nations that were lagging a year ago in Y2K fixes have quickly come up to speed. Which is not to say anyone can predict what might go wrong or how serious it could be.

The more technologically advanced a society, the more susceptible it is to Y2K problems -- a programing flaw that could cause computers and microcircuits to mistake the year 2000 for 1900, possibly crashing or garbling data.

Most governments insist all crucial public services are either Y2K ready -- or will be ready -- and are urging people to approach this Jan. 1 as any other.

Swedish officials say they are more worried about alcohol and fireworks than Y2K technology snags. In Switzerland, government-appointed Year 2000 delegate Ulrich Grete urged folks not to change their plans over Y2K worries.

"I'm going to spend the New Year as I always do," he said. "I'm going skiing."

In Western Europe, Y2K analysts say, a few major millennium bug bites or a gradual cascading of smaller but coincidental failures could trigger situations akin to major strikes: traffic at a standstill, deliveries slowed for weeks, people stranded at home, tempers flaring.

Governments dismiss such scenarios.

"We don't think it will be dramatic or catastrophic," said Jean Francois Gonties, a spokesman for France's National Year 2000 Information Center. But Gonties did express concern about small towns.

"Some municipalities won't have traffic lights. Or the water systems won't work, or factory doors might not open," he said.

As of late November, 10 percent of systems at Spain's airports had not been proven compliant, including luggage X-ray machines, walkthrough metal detectors, escalators and ticketing systems, authorities said.

International Monitoring, a British-based technology consultant, estimates the bug could cost European Union countries $210 billion in across-the-board damages. Senior analyst Nick Gogerty blames it on "basically a lack of government leadership."

"I have problems with France, Germany, Spain and Italy. They've reacted very slowly to Y2K," said consultant Martyn Emery of Corporation 2000, who has done Y2K work everywhere from New York City to the Persian Gulf state of Oman.

Many businesses and some government agencies erred in thinking that by upgrading their financial systems for the euro single currency they had also solved the Y2K problem, analysts say. Many are worried about complacency in small- and medium-sized businesses.

Norway's Y2K coordinator, Geir Jacobsen, believes some jobs could be at risk: "There are still far too many leaders of small businesses who believe that the Year 2000 problem does not affect them."

In the two sectors where Y2K sparks the most public anxiety -- nuclear power and air travel -- officials say the bug has been exterminated and contingency plans are in place.

In a worst-case scenario, a country's airspace would simply be closed, said Jean-Marie Leboutte, who coordinated Y2K efforts for Brussels-based Eurocontrol. That would mean serious delays but no safety risk, he said.

All western European countries insist they have made necessary modifications to their nuclear power plants and simulated the clock rollover to 2000.

"Plants are ready to shut down or reduce power substantially" if problems occur, said David Kyd, spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency, a United Nations body in Vienna, Austria. Kyd is much more concerned about eastern Europe.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@AOL.COM), December 16, 1999

Answers

I have to admit that Germany surprises me, I'd have thought they'd be much more on the ball about this but the fact that France and Italy haven't is no surprise at all.

Took some real effort but I talked my sister (Army in Heidleberg) out of taking the family to Paris for New Years.

..........Alan.

-- A.T. Hagan (athagan@sprintmail.com), December 16, 1999.

"...To many, the Y2K bug is largely a U.S. fascination that translates badly on this side of the Atlantic.

"It's clear we'll have problems, but the Americans have enormously exaggerated Y2K," said Elise Colette, 23, a French communications student."..

They got someone better than Koskinen over there....Bravo!

-- Llama man (llama@cool.net), December 16, 1999.

In a worst-case scenario, a country's airspace would simply be closed, said Jean-Marie Leboutte, who coordinated Y2K efforts for Brussels-based Eurocontrol.

"Plants are ready to shut down or reduce power substantially" if problems occur, said David Kyd, spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency, a United Nations body in Vienna, Austria.

And here I thought there might be problems with air travel or electricity! Silly me. I should have known "they" would fix it.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 16, 1999.

If they didn't scoff they wouldn't be Europeans.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 16, 1999.

Thnx Uncle Bob,

for a comprehensive overview please check this site and bubblefish http://www.zeitbombe-jahr2000.de/zebo.y2k/inh./y2k.cont./Hardieks_Wo- Chronik19.html

Sorry but it is late night here and after a long working day I feel not able to translate all this stuff (in parts already known to the forum, but worth to read it),

-- Rainbow (Rainbow@123easy.net), December 16, 1999.

Yeah, as I recall they scoffed at Churchill when he warned them of the approaching shitstorm known as A. Hitler! The person who wrote this article has knowingly or unknowingly contributed to the dumbing down of America and may actually convince people not to prepare thereby causing them harm.

The author should leave journalism and go to work for MI5.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

It would be nice if they could continue to scoff...but the possibilities of power grid failure, eastern european reactor failure, and fuel disruptions are not really something that should be scoffed at.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 16, 1999.

The general (West) European view is that 'nothing - serious - will happen here, but some foreigners may be trouble'. The Irish Government issued a warning (in December, which was a bit late) that Irish holidaymakers abroad over the new year could find themselves in deep doo-doo.

Meanwhile, Y2K journalism takes on an increasingly surreal note. The UK Government have sent a leaflet to evey home, basically saying 'Y2K is fixed. Nothing will go wrong'. Yesterday there was a large article on the editorial page of the 'Guardian' (major 'serious' UK Newspaper), where the journalist (Ros Coward) complained that this leaflet was dangerous. Eg (paraphrasing) "Nobody ever imagined that the sewage system might fail until this leaflet said that it wouldn't" (sic!!!).

-- Risteard Mac Thomais (uachtaran@ireland.com), December 17, 1999.

I intended to write 'some foreigners may be IN trouble', but I suppose 'some foreigners may be trouble' also expresses part of the attitude!

"You know I bin checkin' it out ... and it can't happen here" (F Zappa).

-- Risteard Mac Thomais (uachtaran@ireland.com), December 17, 1999.

This American "foreigner" is just gonna sit back and watch all of their "fixes" kick in on 1/1/2000.....yee haw....gonna be a good show! Please pass the popcorn...

-- Ynott (Ynott@incorruptible.com), December 17, 1999.

Another Zappa fan!! Someone should add that to the lists of questions I have seen here from time to time: Are you a fan of Frank Zappa?

John Ludi, Zappa Fan.

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), December 17, 1999.

And this is the final official opinion in Ireland (I'm intrigued that they don't say that nothing will fail - instead they are "satisfied with the state of readiness and contingency preparedness"):

Y2K Emergencies Co-ordination Committee Committee expresses optimism:

There should be no major disruption to national services over the millennium holiday period, according to the body set up to oversee their preparations for the Year 2000.

The National Year 2000 Emergencies Co-ordination Committee was set up by the Government to oversee and coordinate the Year 2000 preparations of the key national utilities and the infrastructure, health, security, financial and business sectors.

"The Committee has reviewed and is satisfied with the state of readiness and contingency preparedness in the key services sectors," it said.

"The Committee is also satisfied that effective arrangements are in place to respond to and manage major emergencies and that these arrangements are adequately co-ordinated by the emergency services."

(Irish Times)

-- Risteard Mac Thomais (uachtaran@ireland.com), December 20, 1999.