Glad to be Wrong

I dont especially like labels, but Y2K has created a few. By no means am I as prepared as some of you on this forum, yet to some people I actually see on a daily basis, I am considered to be a doomer or survivalist (translationwacko). DGI Pollys (oops, caught myself using a label) seem to look forward to me being wrong about Y2K. Youll see, the world wont come to an end on January 1st, doomsday predictions have never come true. To tell you the truth, I would be happier than they will be if the year 2000 and beyond is business as usual. Do I want my bank account to vanish? Do I want the nations economy in a shambles? Do I want environmental disasters? Do I want my family to suffer for lack of medical care? Who would?

It is incredulous for a person to be labeled as a doomer-survivalist just because he has gone through the exercise of identifying what could go wrong, and taken rational action to mitigate the effects of possible breakdowns. Preparation is the cheapest and best insurance available. You can eat the premiums. You cant loose.

Admitting the possibility that Y2K could bring negative events is a far cry from wishing those events would happen. I truly consider myself pretty much of a Y2K agnostic. I see good, hard evidence that there could be massive breakdowns, and that is precisely why I am preparing. Yet I also admit it is possible, however unlikely, that serious failures may not occur.

So, to the Pollys of the world, I say I will be glad to be wrong!

OK, I admit theres nothing new here  I just have the need to get this out.

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999

Answers

DOUBLE DITTO'S

I tell everyone that I would love to spend next year apologizing for frightening them so badly.

I love 401K's, delivered pizza, internet chats and CNN. I do not want to experience "scraped icebox stew and dishrag soup" (my mom's terms for the Great Depression).

Those Polly idiots out there think that just because they have never broken a leg, that their leg is unbreakable.

Even if Y2K is a nothing, I gaurentee that next year WILL have its usual proportions of ice storms, floods, hurricanes, power failures and somewhere an earthquake.

-- woody (woody11420@aol.com), December 16, 1999.

I would be satisfied with a "I'm sorry I was wrong" from the pollies if I am right. (I hope I'm not right).

-- just wondering (what.it.is@about.com), December 16, 1999.

I will also be glad to be wrong... I can't wait to be proven wrong!

This is why I think we'll be ok, no matter how many systems fail - it is in our nature to fix what is broken, no matter how long it takes.

275 million Americans will not sit around wrapped in blankets eating pumpkin seeds waiting for someone else to fix things...they will get off their butts and do their jobs. Humans will not become hopeless incompetent people Jan.1. Where did this notion come from that we will all hunker down in our homes and not do our jobs? We will not give up on our nice, plush way of life and go back to pre 1900 days! We will get the systems fixed or find a work-around until it is. Are you going to play hooky from work and not do your part in society? Each citizen is a piece of this huge puzzle that will be repaired (and it will break) and as long as we press on to correct the flawed, we will prevail.

In the meantime, I predict a horribly inconvenient January, and uphill from February on. The key to success is working electricity.... everything else will fall back into place over time.

-- Shawn (shawnagee@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

I agree

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), December 16, 1999.

I guess we'll see if there is ANY apologizing going of after 1/1/00, from ANY outstanding name in the Y2K game, or common folk. Or will it just be a whole lot of "well at least I was prepared", and "see how much good we did by spreading fear!"..

-- (anon@anon.aaa), December 16, 1999.

Right.

Thousands of posts about "We're prepared, you're not. You'll be sorry. Better listen to us. We're right, you're wrong. You'll be sorry!" may be nulled out in January with a simple "Well at least we were prepared for the worst. Better safe than sorry."

-- Shawn (shawnagee@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

How could you be wrong about the *possibility* of Y2K failures? Even if none occur, they were still a possibility weren't they? They were still worth prepping for, right? Why appologize? The risk is real, the preps are valid. Don't look back.

-- RPGman (tripix@olypen.com), December 16, 1999.

Woody

Now now... Let's not apologize for being sensible. There's nothing wrong with house, car, life, health, dental and y2k insurance. Do you apologize to somebody every day because you didn't smash your car up and you feel stupid for buying car insurance? If the pollies don't want health insurance (which I'm sure they don't because nothing ever goes wrong), then that's their prerogative. I would rather live sensible and I will continue to do so. We can't see the future and therefore the reason for insurance. Why the pollies like to bash those who want insurance is beyond me?

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), December 16, 1999.

Thanks to everyone for the feedback (so far). RPGman, you're right-- we shouldn't have to apologize--the risks ARE REAL. Even Kosky says that (however watered down). Shawn, you sure have alot of faith in humanity. I think you're absolutely right about electricity. Electricity IS modern civilization. 2000 will be an "interesting" year.

May the days ahead be (to quote Spock) "free of incident"

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

Shawn,

If there is no reliable electricity I will be home instead of work. If there is no power, that big electronic factory I work in will not be running, therefore, not needing my services. More than a few of those 275 million you speak of will be in the same boat. I can't very well drive the 200 miles to the power plant to help get the station back on-line, so I will be twiddling my thumbs at home, like a LOT of the so-called 275 million.

snoozin'...

The Dog

-- The Dog (dogdesert@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

Hmmm,

Power or not I'll be going to work. But I guess I'd rather be part of the solution then sit around my house twiddling my thumbs and be part of the problem.

Just a thought.

-- COBOL Compadre (just@another.programmer), December 16, 1999.

Now I know what you're going to say...

That you already mentioned that you don't want to drive the 200 miles to the electric factory when you can't help get the thing back on line.

But why not? You have knowledge... there must be something you can do. And besides, who ELSE is going to get it back on line... the plumbers and math teachers?

Come on, have a little loyalty. It's not like it's going to hurt you to go to work and at least try to be helpful. It IS your job isn't it? All those hours you sat around not doing much and getting paid for it? (and don't tell me there haven't been some). Maybe now you'll have to do a little charity, and get going when the going gets tough.

I think it's time we all reassessed our own lives and followed the old saying "think globally, act locally". Again I'd remind you that if you sit at home there NOTHING you can do to help. At least if you go you could do something.

-- COBOL Compadre (just@another.programmer), December 16, 1999.

COBOL Compadre,

I truly value the spirit of what you posted about pitching in.

BUT, the last thing the feds need are a bunch of strangers storming the power stations with tool belts. The threat of domestic terrorism I believe is being taken serious enough by the feds during the rollover to prohibit access to a downed station by non-employees.

Although your thoughts were kind, I'd rather security NOT be checking Dog's ID while the bad guys are making it over the fence. Leave security and staff free to observe any unrecognized persons as possible threats. As horrible as that sounds, it could save their lives as well as anyone who might parish by the power not resuming that much faster.

I don't expect terrorism, domestic or foreign, but we hire the feds to track this for us. If they say there is a potential, then heaven forbid it occur at a site where "good samaritan" walk-ons are tolerated.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 16, 1999.

I guess I misunderstood. I thought Dog was saying the he normally worked at the power plant ("electric factory"). I don't advocate people running around and trying to fix stuff they have no first hand experience with either. I just thought that if Dog's schedule required him to be at work at the power plant then he ought to show up even if there isn't any power to run it on right away. I presume then If I'm wrong then he works at some other factory that is dependent of electricity. If that's the case then he ought to report there, whther the power is on or not. I mean there are still dozens of things to do if the computers and machines can't run. Hopefully whatever company you work for has a paper trail, and they are going to need extra hands sorting it out manually, if that should be the case.

I certaintly wouldn't want a bunch of Joe Schmoe's with a a two year electrical degree going to his or her local power plant, banging on the front door and demanding that he/she has access to the inner workings of the plant.

-- COBOL Compadre (just@another.programmer), December 17, 1999.

I'd rather be wrong and the subject of ridicule etc than right and being able to feel smug.

-- SIRAH (richard.dale@unum.co.uk), December 17, 1999.

I'd rather just be plain right from the beginning. When you're acting upon false presumptions people undoubtedly will get the wrong impression and act irrationally.

-- (just@a. thought), December 17, 1999.

COBOL Compadre, I sorta agree with The Dog, to some extent. But thanks for sticking up for what I said. I will show up to work and do what my boss tells me to do, even if it is not my normal day-to-day work. However, IF there is no power they will probably send us all home until the power comes on. I can be called into work and be there in a few minutes to start putting out fires. I guess my original post was trying to state that if the critical workers that are needed to fix our civilization's hierarchical pyramid (starting with electricity) decided to not do their job, we would be in trouble. Those of us "downstream" dependent on other things by other people to get working may as well stay home and wait for word to continue. But it may be a very slow process if we have to wait for each dependent source to be remedied in a single-line fashion. If you are far enough downstream, it may be weeks before you can even BEGIN to even find out what's wrong in your company.

One example of the chain may be an ATM machine's software at a Bank: Electricity, Heat(possibly), Security systems to get in the door, Operating systems working to even get PC running, Network software working properly to get to host machine, Begin fixing potential problems.

Now lets say it takes 1 day to get electricity up, work without heat, maybe a few hours for the security people to somehow let you in the door, at least 2 days for the System Admins to get a work around if Operating systems fail and implement this fix, half a day for Network to be corrected, then you start working on the REAL problem that may take much longer than any of the above.

Granted, these are guesses, but you can see how everything is single- streamed! Most people will be waiting on someone else to correct a problem before they can begin theirs. I can see this country being in a real hurtin' position for at least 1 month!

-- Shawn (shawnagee@hotmail.com), December 17, 1999.