Walmart keeps raising the numbers. They have once again bumped their stocking at their supply warehouses. Other suppliers are following suit. I am not sure how prepared the shipping company's are too handle the extra load. Can you say truckers on speed. Walmart has their own trucks but still contract out some of their extra loads.

Seeing the calendar I doubt this is for Christmas shopping season. Also there is a point where the distribution centers cannot shove extra product out the door this means that there is a point where the extra orders fall to the bottom of the pile, oops so sorry the big boys get first crack.

Get ready to hunker down.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 16, 1999

Answers

Did you know that almost ALL christmas shopping is done in the last ten days before christmas? Why else do you think the malls and stores are lways packed tighter than sardine cans this time of year. Coicidence? I think not.

You should rethink your theory.

-- (tis@the.season), December 16, 1999.

Also, consider that most of the late blooming GI's will wait until the last minute to stock up on their supplies (IE AFTER Christmas).

Procrastination isn't just a word. It's a lifestyle for most.

-- Powder (Powder@keg.com), December 16, 1999.

Sorry, I have to agree with Squid:

1) Family Dollar Store, which handles A TON of imported merchandise has stocked up way beyond normal Christmas levels.

2) Ditto Pier One, and the ass't manager admitted me that the manager said they were stocking in advance of shipping problems.

3) I am a reformed shopaholic, but in the old days, I lived at Wal-Mart, Meijer, Target, etc. I know that Wal-Mart has LOTS more merchandise than they did last year at Christmas, and I heard a RUMOR from my sister that Wal-Mart has rented additional space in the warehouse where she and her husband store materials for their printing business. (She heard it from an ass't at the warehouse).

No, I don't have any hard numbers, but I have a good sense that stock piling is going on. One last point: I just got back from a quick trip to a local Kroger, and I was just there yesterday -- tuna and other canned meats were in short supply then and haven't been replenished. I won't say there is a food run on yet, but the manager at this Kroger is agressive about not letting inventories run low.

-- (ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), December 16, 1999.

I guess it depends upon where you look and who you ask. I was in the local Super K-Mart last night. The store is packed to the rafters with food and general merchandise. Very few customers and only about 5 of the 20 something check out lines open. People are either holding on to their money out of fear, or everybody is going to attempt to deal with the mad, last minute crush.

I'm glad I finished my prep buying a long time ago.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 16, 1999.

The question is not whether or not people are stockpiling. The question is whether or not the stockpiling CAN continue. The whole basis of this theory lies on the fact that the stores won't be able to stock their shelves after the Y2K ruins shipping registers and data transfers.

So to see people stockpiling is not an indication of anything. We can all thank a good economy and yes, even technology, that allows us to do this. Now, if you see them UNABLE to stockpile then I'd say we have a problem.

Remember Y2K doesn't care what you think. It doesn't care if people are panicky. It doesn't care if 99.9% of the population thinks that the world will end in fifteen days and some odd hours.

Conversely, it doesn't care if you don't worry about it at all.

It will happen in it's own time, in it's own way... and soon enough.

-- (tis@the.season to be MERRY), December 16, 1999.

The Kroger here is jam packed with food. I've been there twice in the last week and canned goods are stacked as high as possible and all the way back on the shelves.

I was in Target yesterday and the same is true there for their toiletries and over the counter medicines.

Sam's is jam packed with much more bulk sized cans and sacks. 50 lb bags of rice for less than $11, and much more real cheep.

My Wal-mart had several of the blue 55 gal water barrels Monday too.

Maybe the Walton family are trying to make amends to putting Clinton in the White House? Nahh, its all for profit.

-- ds (ds@deepsouth.com), December 16, 1999.

I posted earlier about "shortages" I'd seen at our local Costco in California. I admit to being in error. The low stocks I noticed have been replentished. They now have a new pallet of the $5.00 / 25 lb. rice, spam, generators, kerosene heaters. Yesterrday, people are walking around all this useful stuff and snapping up Christmas stuff, while I picked up rice and canned chili.

I have to think at some point the supply chain will experience stress and eventually break, but now I think it will be either December 30- 31 or perhaps after January 1st.

What do you guys think?

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

being a transportation veteran.....i will tell u that before X-mas is always crazy...always...not enough drivers, dispatchers on vacation, and so and so on....its going to be the monday and tues after that will be a good gage for u

-- someone (sway4@yahoo.com), December 16, 1999.

I don't think that in the history of the world there has ever been much going on between December 25 and January 1. The season is over, lots of people on vacations, and not much work to do. I think *if* there would be any problems in the supply chain it wouldn't be until January 3-7. But then again if it takes a "snowball" effect to create a problem then you might not see anything until Jan 17-21. Who knows.

-- (I@don't.know), December 16, 1999.

I was at COSTCO in Spokane, WA yesterday and they have pallets of very nice 15 gal blue water barrels for < $13. Quite a few generators too, including 15KW pad-mount types. They were even selling transfer switches! Incidentally, the water barrel displays were untouched until I grabbed a couple. I have to admit, I almost felt sheepish to take them - and MY Y2K preparations included moving 900 miles to get out of harms way! Peer pressure is still alive and well, even when we're adults. I have to surmise that it is keeping many people from preparing.

-- Mark (anvilmark@yahoo.com), December 16, 1999.

For the debunker, Note I said WAREHOUSE. And note this is way beyond the Increase Normally Seen this time of year. Granted this is only based on the last 3 years but the stocking increase is fact, if you choose to try to find some supposed error to feel better or safer then so be it, keep whistling past.

They are planning for either a last week panic rush buying or to prepare should there be distribution and supply chain problems after the date roll-over. Or otherwise they are throwing out their main strategy to seek cost savings by limiting warehousing and storage costs.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 16, 1999.

My Walmart is packed with people. Thousands of people. Where do they all come from? Can my little town hold this many people? Multiply my little town by thousands of little towns. That is a lot of people. They pack the highways. They pack the back roads. They don't have bottled water. They don't have canned goods. They just crawl around. Here. In my Walmart.

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), December 16, 1999.

I never really expected to see blue 55 gal barrels in Wal-Mart, but there they are.....stacked right up to the ceiling over in gardening .....course, it doesn't take many barrels to make a high stack.

I agree with confusion over "when" distribution problems might occur: I think it will come three ways at three different times.

The first is right after Christmas (27-28-29) when the fed's go into panic mode over preventing panic - which crates panic of course. Distribution systems are probably stillokay then, but too many people want too much stuff in too short a time from too few suppliers and distributors....

Next point is close to turnover, but right after trunover, when certain retailers simply "can't" operate (no power, no pjhones, no credit card scanners, no help, inventory POS system dies, store computer dies, whatever), but others can continue more or less as usual. So, a the usual number of people are chasing about the same number of goods, but far fewer businesses can serve them. THis would be Jan 3-4-5-6 maybe.

Third point is when industrial fabrication and distribution screws up - now, a lot of people (all those who didn't prepare!!!!) are chasing an ever-decreasing number of availbable goods from an ever-decreasing number of retailers and still-surviving distributors. This would be after Jan 10-15, possibly continuing until mid-February?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 16, 1999.

Good answer, Robert.

I think "Phase 1" could start a bit sooner, like Dec. 26. I went to a local supermarket today, and was noticing just how thin the supplies are (just in time supply). I cleaned them out of Comstock pie filling (all 4 cans of it). The Dinty Moore was all pushed to the edge of the shelf so it would look like they had alot of it, but behind this facade it was empty.

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 16, 1999.

I still maintain thaeposition that much of the out of stock items are due to the holiday season shopping.

I guess we'll see how right I am in about two weeks.

-- (tis@the.season), December 16, 1999.

Oops... "the position".

And I seem to recall that Dinty Moore never has very many cans on any shelf I've ever seen, either the small cans or large. Could be my imagination but it does seem to me that they don't have as many items as Cambells usually has on the shelf. Add the extra shopping in and it might very well look like there is a shortage. Certaintly can't find a Pokemon to save your life these past two weeks.

-- (tis@the.season), December 16, 1999.

I was in Wally World last night & went through the camping section. They were cleaned out of 1# propane cylinders -- I'm guessing a new GI cleaned them out. Coleman fuel and other supplies were available, including a 300 BTU propane heater rated for indoor use.

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2 (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), December 16, 1999.

Squid,

This is no joke, it occurred just this afternoon (I think you'll know where I'm talking about):

My mother stopped at the Meijer's store just north of Worthington. At the checkout a lady ahead of my mom asked the bagger (direct quote here) "...if other people were also stocking up for Y2K..." The bagger replied that "Yes, he had seen other people stocking up, though it was completely obvious, just a few items at a time, but yes, there was definitely stockpiling going on..."

Later, after my mom had tokd us about this incident, my brother spoke up about what he heard at work (he works at this same Meijer's store that my mother stopped at). My brother has said that his Meijer's store is donating ~150 - 225 3 lb. hams to local homeless shelters and that another Central Ohio Meijers had already done this same thing. What's so interesting is that Meijers hasn't done this large of a donation before, or at least during the past four years.

It looks like we're in for interesting times...

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), December 16, 1999.

Your mother, heard a checkout lady's bagger say that people were stocking up for Y2K and THAT is what you base your theory on...

BWWWWAHAHHAHAHHHAHHAHAHhahhahahhahahahaha!!!

Oh yeah that sounds like credible, reliable info if there ever was any...

bwhahahahahahhahahaha!! hehhehhehehhee

-- (can't@stop.laughing), December 16, 1999.

My local China*Mart is stocking ABSOLUTELY NO REGULAR LAMP OIL! They have a few bottles of colored Christmas lamp oil, but "someone higher up" decided to allocate the space used last year for regular lamp oil with something else. I think this is an example of idiotic shortsightedness. Either that, or they decided Y2K will be a BITR with no need to stock supplies of lamp oil.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), December 16, 1999.

I suspect that Wal-Mart and other big box retailers are merely trying to act as responsible as they can...stocking up their warehouses in anticipation of potential major shopping binges in the next couple of weeks...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 16, 1999.

Went to WalMart twice this week. Both had lamps, lamp oil, candles. Camping sections were fairly well stocked, with the exception of the Coleman fuel a little thin on the shelves.

Toilet paper aisle, for the most part, was still well stocked, although there were holes for some of the bigger mega packs (however, here was plenty of stock stacked on the top of the rack).

Biggest surprise was the food section (neither are the SuperWalMarts, just the standard food aisles)....VERY picked over! No WalMart brand 'Spam' to be found, chili and beef stew had one or two cans...

Prices have remained consistent to what they've been all year.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

Can't,

Dear, the lady ahead of my mother was ALSO prepping. My brother, who works at Meijers has noticed that the stockers have been working doubletime at keeping the shelves full, too. People ARE prepping...

Please develop some social graces, your social self-isolation is glaringly obvious, dear.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), December 17, 1999.