If Florida can't get their new and improved admin computers to work, what the hell chance do we have of old, remediated utility systems to work properly. All this 'faux' optimism about the grid staying up etc etc is starting to - sniff sniff - smell funny....

-- bb (b@b.b), December 15, 1999

Answers

BB,

Right now it appears it is going to be a roll of the dice. We do NOT want "snakeyes" or "boxcars". Here in NM they took power station #4 back off line at the San Juan power station after just finishing an annual preventative maintenance schedule in October. PNM is not talking, but they do not know when it will come back on line. Hmmmm... very fishy.

-- The Dog (dogdesert@hotmail.com), December 15, 1999.

>what the hell chance do we have of old, remediated utility systems to > work properly.

Have you a supply of candles?

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), December 15, 1999.

--bb, I must have missed that one about Florida. Would you direct me to that info please? Many Thanks.

on de rock

-- Walter (on de rock@northrock.bm), December 15, 1999.

There are a lot of bright, sincere folks who work in the utilities field, and virtually all of them are saying that they see no real potential for problems. That's got to count for something.

On the other hand, they also seem a little to cocky about it, as though a snake hiding in the tall grass couln't jump up and bite them on the ass. If ya get my drift.......

-- Choirboy (choirboy@hellzchoir.edu), December 15, 1999.

I donno,

The utility guy down the road from me bought my small generator from me last month. And the utility lineman across the road just put in a big propane tank.

Just the facts maam.

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), December 15, 1999.

Time to thin the herd.

-- booboo (raptor12g@hotmail.com), December 15, 1999.

Unknowns are hard to quantify, but not impossible. There are clues.

I'd expect a 10 if it were a fairly well established fact that most power generation utterly failed rollover tests, and nobody could figure out why, or if they knew why, but it would require many years worth of big hardware system manufacturing to fix the problems. And we've seen nothing remotely like this.

I'd expect a 5 if we had a sizeable list of known problems, with difficult workarounds for some of them, replacement parts for not enough, and test results from the big generation plants indicating that pending repairs, they could only work at, say, 70% capacity. But we're nowhere close to that either.

In reality, the best information we have says that:

1) Some generators and distributors are having the usual IT problems with their business systems;

2) While there are no problems that are known to prevent generation or distribution, there are problems that can might it more labor intensive and make downstream maintenance more problematic, though the known instances of such problems are few;

3) There is always the finagle factor -- the inability to rule out problems combined with the tendency for unlikely events to conspire together and snowball. These things happen during the best of times, and y2k can only increase their chances of happening.

This most likely translates into more, and longer, power outages than usual. Nothing catastrophic from an economic viewpoint, but damn bad if you happen to be at ground zero with temperature zero.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 15, 1999.

I don't see how it can be anything but a 10 if...

1) The IRS completely breaks down

2) The JIT system, particularly relating to food breaks down

3) Oil imports are down substantially.

Unfortunately, these three possibilities all look really good right now.

-- nothing (better@to.do), December 15, 1999.

Flint, You make a lot of sense. I'm at a 5 but am preparing for an 8 and hoping for a 3. I don't think of myself as a polly, but a 5 probably does not make me a "doomer" either. Is there a term for middle of the roaders like me who are not taking any chances?

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 15, 1999.

Mr. Dog,

I believe that you can tally one point to my score board sir. I think that I discussed the San Juan power generation complex...Now I wonder in which area the systems failure occured? Water treatment, stack sensor, the conveyor system, ball mills, possibly the vibration sensors (this is what took out the turbine at the power house near Huntingon, Ind last year). You remember that one? Of course you do. It was only the second recorded turbine explosion to have occured...The third was in Florida some months later.

Now would you want to bet that they'll bring her back on line, and then in, say a week They'll take her off the line again? Or....More aptly, the unit will take herself off the line.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), December 15, 1999.