The fat lady has yet to sing. We will soon begin to see how much we thought we we knew that we didn't, all the things we should have been able to guess that we missed.

I often think about how the intellectual elites of the past appear to us now. In 1400, physicians thought the smell of flowers would ward off the plague. They didn't know about rats, bacteria. Yet they were the best of their age.

It is the limitation of humanity that our knowledge will always be flawed and incomplete. I suggest an awareness of our own ignorance is something we should factor into our assumptions about the world.

That is why y2k will not be like we expect, either in the best or the worst. We built a whole new type of world, within less time than a lifespan, and now it approaches its first- and only it's first- critical test.

The great disasters of our history have been the errors of the Best and the Brightest. There will be no difference this time. Our naive self-certainty, our arrogance as a species, is our Achilles Heel.

Brace for the unknown.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), December 14, 1999

Answers

Well put.

Night train

-- jes a tired ol footballer (nighttr@in.lane), December 14, 1999.

Thank you Forrest for the reminder of a terrible ignorance. I hope we are not repeating something similar. I recall hearing something about the 14th century plague on public TV a while ago, how it was the macabre explanation behind a familiar children's dance "Ring Around the Rosey" (your spelling may differ).

Ring around the Rosey (skin lesions) Pockets full of Posey (flowers to ward off smell and hopefully the disease) Ashes, Ashes (originally "achoo") We all fall down.

I've never thought of that traditional little dance the same way since. Will a children's patter-song tell our story in 1000 years? And will it blame us?

-- Margaret J (janssm@aol.com), December 14, 1999.

The grass is always greener on the other side. Look before you leap. A stitch in time saves nine. There's nowt as queer as folk.

WHAT?

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), December 14, 1999.

The unknown unknowns.....

-- tc (trashcan-man@webtv.net), December 14, 1999.

Yes, I would say this will be a first mission critical, end-to-end test, of our shared world. (More to come).

Shift Happens. Or not.

Expecting the unexpected and anticapating that what we expect the unexpected is... isnt it.

;-D

Diane

(Also noticing... one historical epoch always appears to re-write the rules of the last one).

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 14, 1999.

Forrest: Yes, very true. The great historical tragedies, the wars, the boondogles, are always the fault of the learned, not the unlearned. Man's pride his downfall. Where's Rube Goldberg when you need him?

-- Rider (free@last.Amen), December 14, 1999.

Re: We built a whole new world in less than a lifespan.

I often think of my parents, now headed toward 90, and how they will deal with y2k. As children, they had gas lamps, no telephone, no cars, crank phonographs, and got chickens from the backyard (eventhough they were 1 mile from NYC border). The big entertainment was to send a paper boat down along the curb water after a rain storm. My Mom now has to deal with phonetrees when trying to straighten out Medicare bills or renew T-bills. Both definitely "get it" and have already told me they realize it could kill them, but they are too tired for preparation help or to move in with us on the rollover. I wonder how other old elderly GIs are dealing with it?

-- Dot (dromano03@snet.com), December 14, 1999.

I was very worried about my elderly father, but alas he died in October. One of the things he had done during his working life was COBOL programming. When he first heard about Y2K he was not concerned, but that changed to the extent that before he died he ordered a large propane generator for his house. It was not yet installed when he died. Now I will focus on my stepmom and her welfare... although I miss my dad terribly, it might have been a mercy that he died now instead of having to face a situation where his medical care and pension might have been disrupted. I don't know. These things are up to a higher power.

One thing I know is that his church has made a commitment to care for the elderly and helpless in their congregation, an effort I will try to assist them with.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), December 14, 1999.