Atlanta Fed Chief Says No Inflationary Effects From Y2K Cash Reserves

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Dec 13, 1999 - 05:31 PM

Atlanta Fed Chief Says No Inflationary Effects From Y2K Cash Reserves

By James Pilcher ATLANTA (AP) - The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said Monday he does not foresee any inflationary effects from the $200 billion in extra cash the Fed has on hand in case of problems caused by the Y2K computer glitch.

Atlanta Fed President and CEO Jack Guynn said few banks or businesses have drawn on the extra funds and regulators don't expect a massive run on cash as the new year approaches.

Theoretically, a large influx of cash into circulation could lead to more spending - stimulating economic growth and perhaps nudging inflation higher.

"We've never been through a Y2K kind of a period before, but we don't think that's a very likely thing we'll have to deal with," Guynn said.

Guynn made his remarks at a news conference called to announce that all 10,200 banks insured nationally by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are ready for the changeover Dec. 31.

The Y2K bug may cause computers to break down at midnight Dec. 31 if they recognize only the last two digits of a year and think the date is Jan. 1, 1900, instead of Jan. 1, 2000.

Last year, the central bank ordered an additional $50 billion in new currency to be put into circulation in the event people make a run on banks and automated teller machines this month.

The Federal Reserve also has $200 billion in currency stored in government vaults, up from the $150 billion normally held in reserve. That is in addition to the $460 billion in notes circulating in the United States and abroad.

FDIC Chairman Donna Tanoue, citing a Gallup poll commissioned by federal regulators, said consumer confidence in the banking industry's readiness for Y2K has risen to 90 percent.

That means the clamor for cash hasn't materialized, a possible sign that the anti-alarmist messages federal regulators have been giving for the last month are sinking in.

"We all thought the critical period would start about Thanksgiving, and we are gratified that demand hasn't been more than normal around the holidays," said Ellen Seidman, director of the Fed's Office of Thrift Supervision. "We're still telling people don't take out more than you normally would over a long holiday weekend."

Guynn said federal banking officials are still prepared to help out institutions in "a liquidity crunch" and the Fed has created a special lending system for banks in trouble.

Seidman said consumers should keep paper records during December and after Jan. 1 - including ATM slips with balance information - as backups in case of computer glitches.

===================================== End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 13, 1999

Answers

Just wait until all that cash hits the stores just before or after the roll-over. It ain't gonna be pretty...

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

Check out the thread four UP from this one.....(All signs show Greenspan is scaried to death)

Something doesn't tally here

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), December 13, 1999.


1) Cash in the Fed's vaults doesn't cause inflation...

2) Cash put into circulation, or a general increase in the money supply (which they've been doing) (and in the QUANTITIES they've been putting out) WILL cause inflation...

3) Recessionary tendencies of Y2K, etc. may, to some extent, counter the inflationary tendencies of monetary expansion. Or we could see stagflation again!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 13, 1999.


DAMN IT NO, MONK!!!!

1) Cash in the Fed's vaults doesn't cause inflation...
This is correct.
2) Cash put into circulation, or a general increase in the money supply (which they've been doing) (and in the QUANTITIES they've been putting out) WILL cause inflation...
THIS IS WRONG!!!!! The CASH in the VAULTS is ONLY there to REPLACE the DIGITAL MONEY in ACCOUNTS!! THIS cash is EXACTLY the SAME AS THE DIGITS IT WILL BE EXCHANGED FOR!!!!

The ONLY inflationary activities are the repos, and easing of credit, making loans easier to get, which is the general increase in money supply and has NOTHING to do with putting cash into circulation. Replacing my digital checking account dollars with green ones is NOT INFLATIONARY. NO MORE SO THAN MY CHECKBOOK!!

3) Recessionary tendencies of Y2K, etc. may, to some extent, counter the inflationary tendencies of monetary expansion. Or we could see stagflation again!
This is a pretty safe bet as it covers almost all the possibilities.

SOONER OR LATER PEOPLE WILL UNDERSTAND THAT THE RESERVES IN THE FED VAULTS ARE NOT GOING OT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON INFLATION. NONE!

Number 3 hoping all his tags are closed

-- # 3 (rienzoo@en.com), December 13, 1999.

What are you seeing between the lines, #3? No one said that the cash in the vaults is inflationary (quite the opposite, it reduces the amount available for lending, investment and therefore growth).

We're hypothesising on what will happen IF that cash gets drawn. THEN it's inflationary.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), December 14, 1999.



#3,

I agree. You are correct. Fed reserves are not spendable deposits. Checkbook money and paper currency are the same in terms of effect on the economy. The availability of $200 bilion in new currency will, by itself, add nothing to the "money supply".

Walter Bagehot (founder of economist magazine) warned in 1850 of the failure of literary men to accurately report economic events and data. It looks like we have again come full circle.

-- earl (ejrobill@pcpostal.com), December 15, 1999.


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