I'm really not looking for a fight here. It's just that every time I try to get facts from the horse's mouth, I get conjecture, insults and opinions of those not in-the-know.

Those of you who've followed my posts know that I'm as prepared as anyone with a very remote location, lots of food, fuel and protection. I'm off the grid and pretty much unreachable and self-sustaining. I've been working on this for six years. I've share my knowledge of diesel electrical and heating, thoughts the dangers of barter and I've got a lot invested in preps for "the event".

A troll? I sure don't mean to be. Heck, I even use my real E-mail address.

A couple of hours ago I asked for IRS employees to post any info that they might have, large building maintenence operators - the same question, National Guardsmen also and in 25 responses so far today, I got no principles, only opinions from folks who have no more knowledge than me.

See, on this forum it's like we all keep reinforcing our already made-up minds rather than looking for facts that may change our minds. It doesn't mean anything if 1% or 99% THINK it's TEOTWAWKI any more than it mattered how many people belived that Clinton "never touched that woman". Belief is not the same as truth.

We seem to be most interested in trying to convince others that we know the future. (Gold at $1,000 an ounce, Stock Market crash immenent, earthquake by Dec 23rd,....)

I'm looking for facts and truth to base my actions upon and I'd think that would be your wish as well. To date, I cannot think of a single prediction that's come true whether it's fiscal roll overs, meteor showers, solar flares, bank closures or rationing of gas.

Given this track record, why would anyone believe the doomers? They're 0 for 20 or so.

So, here's the challenge to any industry or government organization employee:

Post 1st hand info of importance. Copies of orders to move out, coupons for government food rations, photos of martial law signs or inturnment camps, close-ups of chemtrail planes taking off or landing at a secret base. If there's such a huge conspiricy to keep us in the dark, certainly some minion of that giant world-wide evil empire will feel a twinge of conscience and spill the beans....

-- Randers (coyotecanyon@hotmail.com), December 12, 1999

Answers

Randers, please might I also interject my insigificant response. I had read where the I.R.S was belly-up, such things as hand written notices. I make monthly payments, my monthly billings are still computerized, and DANG IT! they still keep appearing in my mailbox, right on time, every month! Then today, I read a post that says I.R.S. is not even a real part of the Gubmit, they said notice a envelope you receive from them ACTUALLY HAS A .32 STAMP, not one of those normally "stamped postage". So I ask my DWGI, where is the envelope? He can't "remember". I searched the trash cans. I am NOT A TROLL, but I may be divorced verrrry soon. IF and when I find that envelope and verify the stamp, I will post it for anyone. I will not post a lie. Sorry I have nothing more to offer than human feed-back.

-- ENVELOPE SEZZZZ (paddling@alone.com), December 12, 1999.

Sorry, forgot in my rant to say I do work for the Goverment, I am just too far down the "Food Chain" to be privy.

-- ENVELOPE SEZZZZZ (paddling@alone.com), December 12, 1999.

Randers, the major problem is that those who could speak can't. I'll give you a 'hypothetical' situation. A person I know is hypothetically involved with the remediation of a state that has already announced they are compliant. That individual tells me (as a friend) that there is only a 10% chance that my company will be paid by the state for the work we are doing now. If the friend is wrong and says nothing publically, he continues on with his job, pension and insurance in a time of recession. If he is right, it really doesn't matter at all cause the whole system will go to crap.

Being a whistleblower at this late date is stupid. Yes, I too would like to know where we stand and what the 'odds' are for this and that. However, a whistleblower faces the same odds/potential that a y2k doomer does. If he keeps his mouth shut and prepares, nothing happens, he's no worse off than before. He runs his mouth and nothing happens, he's apt to be hunting a job in a very uncertain market and the survival skills of a goverment employee in the free labor market are usually minimal. I don't blame people for not letting go of correct information. If you target certain companies (and that's what you are wanting), PBAMF.

Nope, I don't expect ANYONE to put their livelihood on the line just so I can say that I know something.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), December 12, 1999.

"We seem to be most interested in trying to convince other that we know the future" a very human trait but a quality that is reserved for God's prophets only. We do not know what is to happen in the next year, only God knows. Be prepared. Hope nothing happens. Live in peace.

-- bruce (bruce@bruce.com), December 12, 1999.

Randers,

I was polite earlier, but it's clear now you're being disingenuous. You wanted information about the National Guard earlier...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001zSm

...I posted verfiable news items about the Guard, and then you were unhappy because you didn't get any unverifiable info from someone in the National Guard. If someone had claimed they were in the Guard, how would you even know they actually were or not?

If by chance you actually do want some verfiable information, see this thread:

"White House readies Y2k center"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001jjc

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 12, 1999.

Why do some people on a message boards complain about hearing rumors? I come here TO hear rumors. I go to .gov .mil and "respectable" news sites when I want to read "official" reports. But I'm not lazy enough to need to subsist on just spoon-fed news; I like to dig in the trenches and make up my own mind.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 12, 1999.

If it is about one inch round, 12 inch"s long, red in color, and has a string hanging out the end if it throughing sparks. Dose any one have to tell you what it is? You can keep it in your hand if you want to, but I'm out of here. Some times a lot of little thing tell's you what it is.

THE FUSE IS BURNING!

-- wacko (gonewackie@aol.com), December 12, 1999.

Randers,

You make a good point that has been troubling me as well. If these rumors you cited are correct, and no confirmations exist for them, we have an unprecedented coverup by thousands of government employees. Theoretically possible, but not probable. It is almost impossible to control a government secret known by thousands of people. They couldn't even keep Clinton's dalliances a secret when only a handful of people knew the facts.

Y2K may be a problem, but that doesn't mean that armed control by the Feds must ensue. The IRS Commissioner may have acknowledged contingency plans to manually prepare refund checks, but that doesn't mean the IRS is toast.

Your point is well taken that Y2K must be kept in a reasonable context. I suspect the folks who survive the best will be the ones who maintain a common sense balance.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), December 12, 1999.

Randers:

You're chipping away here at a significant point. Every single one of the dire predictions has failed miserably so far. We can find only a handful of fairly minor computer problems despite scouring the net for them (combined with media hypersensitivity to them). The indirect indications of problems should be everywhere we look -- CIO's and geeks bailing, the market nosediving, a severe cash crunch, a LOT more shortages of preparation-type goods, a y2k-watch on TV every day, public (government-sponsored) contingency plans to rival the bomb drills of the 1950's, on and on. We aren't seeing ANY of this.

And even our demon researchers never seem to post the followups to the computer problem articles. When I do this, the nutbags here change the subject and attack the messenger rather than face the facts (which are as first-hand as we ever get).

Instead we get treated to denial, assumptions that all good reports are lies, more denial, personal attacks, more denial, and a few untraceable rumors. And more denial.

Can we say desperation, boys and girls?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 12, 1999.

Flint,

What about VW and Audi...? No spare parts for their dealerships IN germany since september. Using new and rental car4s for spare parts. No problems huh...?

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heavengermany.com), December 12, 1999.

Mike:

I don't know about you, but common sense says to prepare for the worst case you can personally afford. This is BECAUSE you don't know what's going to happen, not IN SPITE OF you not knowing what will happen.

My family is simply too valuable and important to me to say "I don't want Flint or Mike (or anybody else) to think poorly of me, and I can't prove what will happen, so I'll cover my butt and only do a little preparation--based on an unknown future."

Now THAT SOUNDS NOT ONLY SILLY BUT IRRESPONSIBLE don't you think?

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 12, 1999.

Flint:

You think logically, but some of your underlying assumptions are on shaky ground. Conclusions are suspect therefore...

Did you not read my fist-hand post on Northwood Pulp Mill testing it's ability to separate itself from the power grid? That's first hand info, and I got attacked (by a polly, go figure...) in person for it!

If you're as reasonable as you think you are, go to the archives. Read it through. Rethink your asssumptions.

Email in private if you want to, but don't be foolish by doing exactly what you despise in others--making fun of the opposition.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 12, 1999.

STFrancis:

Do you have a URL for the VW problems? I'd like to read it before I comment. What seems to be causing the problem, exactly?

Kurt:

Yes, we communicated personally about the Northwood Pulp Mill (don't you remember?). And yes, such things do worry me, naturally. I believe the experience you described is endemic, as I said in my email. Error handling systems for errors that have never happened fail all too often, with code as with generators.

But I'm not making assumptions here, I'm making observations. I'm trying to put together the most consistent picture I can from all sources of information, weighted and discounted as appropriately as I can do. To me, it adds up to maddening but manageable problems, with some notable exceptions.

I don't think those who put their pictures together from the perspective of "all good news is spin, all bad speculations will come true" are anywhere near close to an accurate picture. And I *firmly* believe that personal attacks simply show the bankruptcy of the attacker's opinions.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 12, 1999.

The assumption that is implied is there is a huge government conspiracy. Not only that but an official government conspiracy memo has been promulgated to all government employees. Hum, could it be that the same government that discusses y2k in "secret" closed session doesn't publish in memo form to all government employees the CIA's reports on the status of Saudia Arabia. Having served on board submarines there were missions that FEW on board new the details of where we were going or what we were doing. HHHhhhhmmmmm does that mean that the individuals performing their jobs couldn't keep doing what they were trained and paid to do. Sorry can't bring the reactor critical until you tell me where we are going. And if the individuals are high enough they are POLITICAL enough to keep their mouth shuts.

The facts are that the extremist sometimes flakey predictions are just that. Now because over 1/2 the population believes there was conspiracy by the military-industrial complex to off JFK that it is a fact. That's the fun in an open forum you get all types. Buried in the posts is glimpses of the truth. You as a free thinking individual have the ability to accept all of what you read, part of what you read, or none of what you read.

Ask yourself this, the action that I take, prepare for the worst, prepare for disruptions or prepare for nothing has consequences to what truly happens OVER the next seven months. If you are waiting for everything to happen to prove or disprove problems Then we all shall know the answer in a couple months. I hope, no I pray that with all my knowledge based on experience that many people are wrong. Remember that it is mainly the government that is telling you that there is no problems and they have a quite a track record for honesty.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 12, 1999.

Flint:

My humble apologies, you did speak with me by email. Sorry for the short memory!

Beyond that, the difference between "endemic" (no problem, you mean?) and epidemic is INTERCONNECTEDNESS. Also, these predictions that have failed to come true were--for the majority of cases--byproducts of the Y2K problem, not to be confused with the big problem we have been facing all this time--Y2K.

To say that Infomagic is discredited because not every prediction he said has come true does not make sense to me. I cannot possibly be right about everything, but that does not make me wrong about everything either! I think that the argument will sell itself. If it makes sense, forget the messenger--think about the concept being portrayed.

Here's something for you to read: the 10 May/99 "The Y2K Reporter" by Dr. Ed Yardeni. Yes, yes it's "old" but the point made is VERY applicable today. Particulary the numbers given in the section titled "Northern Exposure"--the rate of "completion" is just not good enough, regardless of PR releases.

Please read that report and let us know what you think... Thanks again Flint.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 12, 1999.

Kurt,

I think you missed the point of the post. It was about proof that horrific gov't actions are imminent- it wasn't about preparing. You can prepare for disruptions of supplies without preparing for military takeover of our society. Your reply makes my point- it's all about a common sense approach to Y2K.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), December 12, 1999.

Mike:

You are taking me out of context if you think that I'm supporting your point. What point? You must define what "reasonable context" is in order to have a valid and arguable point.

If you want indisputable facts, you will find--if you haven't already--that there is a paucity of them. cite any "reason" you feel like... for you to still be wanting indisputable facts (as you see them) at this late hour is pointless, unless you are a historian and plan to write about the history (in reasonable context) of y2k.

I've worked for gov't most of my adult life and I know that you will never see enough "facts" (please define) to put together a complete picture. Gov't does not work this way, and never has.

Work with what you have. If you can't see a clear picture, don't use an agenda (not saying you have one, merely hypothesizing) to interpret facts. Use education, reason and experience. You will find that forum members here have a width and depth of experience that none of us has individually. Use us as a resource, rather than telling us what to think.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 12, 1999.

Flint

And I find you on this thread after checking out the water situation. While checking out the information on it (AWWA, GAO,Senate and whatever else) it appears to me to be a clear deception on the part of the AWWA to find their survey reliable.

 AWWA water update for the record

There is more that what I posted on that thread because most folks wouldn't read it, they would rather talk to Lady Logic and chase the dog around the house.

This is a major problem alright, the mismanagement regarding information and Y2K should be criminal. Trancparency only works when someone is talking. But the survey results came from such a small percentage of the industry as to be nonconclusive.

This of course works both ways indicating that there maybe a chance of more progress than infomation can provide. Unfortunately water is not like a bank. You do not need money on demand but you do need water on demand.

I would think the public should have had a right to know and the management of those facilities should have the data on the table reasuring the public.

There is a guilty party and it might not be the worried folk

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 12, 1999.

It's just fascinating to see the old GIs slowly realize that there is a difference between "getting it" and "being had". For months all the doomers have promised that there would be a wake up call before January, but now with mid-December quickly approaching, it is the doomers that are coming to with a splash of cold water.

You see Randers, if you will take your rediscovered ability for critical thinking and look back the past year and half or so, you will see that the people "in-the-know" have been consistently branded as polly trolls on this forum. People like Peter de Jager, who probably knows more about Y2K than anyone on the planet, was pilloried as an idiot, a moron, mentally disturbed, a government agent, etc., just because he had the gall to explain how remediation efforts had turned the corner. Since then it has all been one long, dreary rear-guard action, as the profiteers have become more and more desperate to generate public interest in their "preps".

Good for you Randers, you are starting to see through it, a little late, but look on the bright side: you won't feel nearly as stupid as the people who will "get it" to the bitter end.

-- Computer Pro (first_minister@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

Computer Pro:

Just another inflated ego...

Show me your "intellectual superiority" and your profound elite status of "in the know" over the best minds around the world who say that nobody knows what the true impacts and effects of the Y2K problem will be.

Have a quiet chat with the likes of Dr. Ed Yardeni or Dr. Paula Gordon before wasting everyone's time.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 13, 1999.

Borzel, you are a total fool if you think that either Yardeni or Gordon have one iota of first hand experience with Y2K remediation. In just a few weeks we will have proof positive that it was these "great minds" that were wasting everybody's time. What smart-ass comment will you have to make then?

-- Computer Pro (first_minister@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

Computer Pro:

A. Smartass? There is a difference between sarcasm and sincere disagreement. if you cannot tell the difference, you discount all your arguments.

B. Y2K impacts and effects, worldwide, are not micro-computer problems, they are the cumulative effect of little problems + interconnectedness. This is a systemic problem, and one needs skills (among other items)in observation, critical analysis, and systems theory to see the problem for what it is. Oh yes, I know nothing, but ask the CIA.

C. There's a lovely little thread a few down that speaks of Pascal's Wager--give it a read and then ask yourself if you're prepared to be wrong.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 13, 1999.

Pascal's Wager an analogy for Y2K? You can't be serious. For starters, the person at the provided link repeats every hackneyed myth about Y2K that has been responsible for this ridiculous hype in the first place. Understanding the real impact of Y2K is not a matter of faith - it is simply a matter of being able to distinguish between real experts and imposters.

But where this argument really hits the rocks is the contention that "If you choose to prepare, there's no downside to being wrong". Spoken like a true prep shill. How many people bought preps on credit that they could ill afford? How many people will find out that the prescription medicine they bought through mail order does not work as expected? How many will electrocute themselves fooling around with generators or die of carbon monoxide poisoning from incorrectly installed stoves? How many marriages broke up because one spouse wanted to move to a bunker in Montana and the other thought it was crazy? How many kids will be accidentally shot by all of the extra weapons purchased to protect the preps?

By all means, prep to your hearts content, but don't ever think that there is no risk associated with this path. Of course, the people who want to sell all this stuff don't want you to think about that. But like your fellow British Columbian Paul Kedrosky said (a prof at UBC who actually has a clue): "Y2K advocates are like newly hatched mosquitoes. They only have a short amount of time to suck blood before they die."

There is a simple reason why people believe this Pascal's Wager propaganda. It's all part of the exit strategy - which is what this thread is about BTW. For the doomers who are unwilling to confront the doubts that Randers is clearly going through, this so-called "zero downside" is preparation for the psychological hit of being proved wrong. After all, what's the big deal if the "cost" of being wrong was insignificant anyway? And those supply disruptions take a real long time to show up you know. Besides, nobody really knew, right? Throw in a bit of credit for warning the world to fix the bug, marvel like Carl Sagan at the billions and billions spent and before you know it, the doomers will be patting themselves on the back for being right all along.

-- Computer Pro (first_mininster@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

Yep - sure will.

And if you're wrong?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 13, 1999.

Boy - I hope they've spent enough - so far, I'm not sure anybody know just how much is enough....made some progress though - but, you know what Pro - I've no evidence that "they" have actually fixed all the government sytems yet - have nothing but the self-preserving, self-serving, self-interested, thoroughly biased, unchecked, unverifiable words of the politicians you know.

But the only people with an axe to grind are those who want to sell something....

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 13, 1999.