["Don't Worry! Be Happy! Don't Take Your Money Out Of The Bank! Don't HOARD! Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas! Oh, And By The Way, Don't Fill Up Your Gas Tank At The End Of The Year!"]

Saturday December 11

IEA Says World Oil Supplies Safe From Y2K

LONDON (Reuters) - World energy supplies look safe from the threat of any significant millennium computer bug disruption, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

The agency, grouping the world's major industrialized nations, said it was confident that preparations for computer date rollovers on January 1, 2000 would minimize risks to the energy sector.

``The IEA's collective expectation is that any Y2K problems will be of minor consequence and can be managed by the same companies that normally assure the security of world energy supplies,'' the agency said after a meeting in Paris of its governing board.

``Substantial efforts have been made throughout the energy sector and in coordination with other related sectors, such as shipping lines, to ensure the security of energy supplies and their availability to consumers.''

Oil prices recently hit a nine-year high of nearly $26 a barrel for North Sea Brent and there are fears in the consuming nations of the West and Asia that the millennium bug might disrupt production or exports and send prices even higher.

Earlier this week the IEA warned that supply curbs being implemented by OPEC and other major producers had reduced inventories close to minimum operating levels.

The IEA said measures had been planned by member countries to deal with any residual problems and it was prepared for collective emergency measures in the unlikely event they were needed.

IEA member states are mandated to hold oil stocks of more than three billion barrels for release in the event of an emergency.

The reserves were last released when Kuwaiti and Iraqi supplies were suspended after Baghdad's invasion of Kuwait in the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis.

Major oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico have already announced their readiness to take remedial action if any serious disruption to oil and gas supplies occurs.

The IEA groups Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.

[ENDS]

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), December 11, 1999

Answers

And reg unleaded is STILL 90.5 cents per galllon bulk delivery and K- 1 is 1.075 per gallon, bulk delivery.

Hmmmm

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 11, 1999.

And to you NEOHIOers that would be from Ullman Oil at www.ullmanoil.com or look in the white pages. (or dial 440-543-5195)

They DO have a 150 gal min.

Chuck a VERY satisfied customer.

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 11, 1999.

A 6-7% reduction in '73 caused rationing and a recession.

Insiders are predicting a 30% reduction... even at half that we are entering the D-word territory... Depression...

Remember that the "rest of the world" will also be competing for available oil - the USA does not get priority folks.

Check out the Oil and y2k thread for further details, in particular the insider scoop from Harry Schultz.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.

Insiders are predicting a 30% reduction.
4 times as bad as the 70's Recession, NOT including the bag full of other Y2K problems. hmmm, $2.50 a gallon might be too low of a guess!

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), December 11, 1999.

Hi John,

Would you mind giving me the URL for that?

R.C.

You have accepted everything negative the IEA has said for at least the last six weeks. Are you going to believe them now that they have relatively good news? Or, are you selective about which information you accept from the IEA?

THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO END.

I predict a 3.

-- (Ladylogic@aol.com), December 11, 1999.

P.S.

John - have listened to you many times on Jeff Rense as well as checking out your web site - keep up the excellent work.

Your comments on oil on the www.sightings.com November 30th show are quite quite chilling - I was aged 15 in london in '73 and remember very well being unable to buy certain LP's as plastics were also affected... the fall out from oil boggles the mind if that 70% prediction is correct.

I currently have about 100 crude oil call options - if the banks make it and crude spikes over $35-40 (it hit $40 once before) the beers are on me ;o)

later,

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.

Ladylogic...

It's called SPIN...

You'd do it too if you were in their shoes... read between the lines, it's going to be a calamity...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.

It is a pleasure to meet you Andy,

Although, unfortunately, I think you are not going to like me very much, and I'd like to say from the start that I'm sorry about that.

I was at the same place you are at a month ago. I wanted to invest in crude and my father talked me out of it. Today, I am thankful for my father's wisdom, but that's a long story (3 links and god knows how many posts).

Andy, I honestly believe that sometimes people tell the truth - not always - but I think we have to consider what people's lives are going to be like if they are lying.

If all these people (politicians, city officials, members of IEA, etc.) are lyiing to us, they run the risk of serious or severe retaliation next year. We know who these people are, where they live, who their family is, and it would be pure insanity - no, a death wish - for these people to lie to us.

I believe IEA was telling the truth when they thought there would be SERIOUS disruptions. I also believe they are telling the truth now that they have re-evaluated the "readiness" of the petroleum industry.

May I please have that url?

-- (Ladylogic@aol.com), December 11, 1999.

Hi ladylogic, the pleasure's all mine.

Do me a favour. Listen to John Whitley on the November 30th www.sightings.com show - and then honestly come back to this forum and critique John's research...

I would be most interested to hear your views. Having spent the last 22 years working in the IT industry in Banking and Airline realtime systems, and worked in the Middle East, Europe and across the USA I feel that I have a fair idea of this WORLDWIDE SYSTEMIC problem and how it is likely to play out.

It won't be a 3.

the URL can be got from Reuters - access Reuters via www.drudgereport.com and register on the Reuters Enery web page - you'll get all the latest spin in mega doses ;o)

I also think your dad was wrong. For $100 you can buy a March 2000 $35 call option. If Oil spikes to $50, you have a clear $15,000 in the kitty. If the banks stay up of course, and the NYMEX etc. Better than a lottery ticket, no? Gotta speculate to accumulate - dirty work but someone's got to do it!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.

This is a very important post from the Gold-Eagle site.

FWIW Harry Schultz is predicting $50 by the end of Dec and a further 75-100% increase in the early new year.

Y2K, Oil & Bill Richardson (GOLDFINGER) Dec 09, 17:16 Forum,

Bill Richardson should be concerned about rising crude prices, but in reality there will be very little the U.S. can do to influence oil prices. The past 30 years have demonstrated this time and time again.

Here are some points to consider: Bear in mind I have been working as a Senior Petroleum Engineering Consultant in South America for the past 3 year (mostly in Venezuela and Colombia.....currently with one of the largest multi-nationals in the world), and previous to that I worked in the Persian Gulf.

1. First of all, I am very much inclined to agree with Harry Schultz's article from yesterday regarding his prediction that crude oil could doubled in price very soon (he is predicting possibly $50/bbl by Dec. 31st and $75 to $100 early in 2000). I think the following scenario will un-fold:.

a. Y2K creates oil shock.

b. stock market collapses due to oil shock....similiar to 1973/74 scenario.

c. precious metal prices go ballastic in reaction to collapsing stock markets.

2. Venezuela is by far the single largest supplier of crude oil imports to the U.S. Having worked there recently I observed the following;

a. majority of the wells require artificial lift. There are literally 10s of thousands of wells producing via gas lift and electric submersible pumps. Power outages are frequent at the best of times in Venezuela.

b. the words "equipment maintainence" are virtually non-existent in Venezuela.

c. Venezuela was 100% non Y2K compliant in March of this year, now they claim to be 100% Y2K compliant. I don't believe them for one moment! To my knowledge, they have done nothing in regards to Y2K testing.

d. Venezuela is severely cash-strapped. The government can barely pay it's workers.....so how can they check for Y2K compliance.

e. Because of artificial lift requirements (i.e. electrical power requirements) and lower well production rates I think the logistical infastructure is much more complicated, thus more vunerable, to Y2K than in many other producing nations around the globe.

3. The basket price for Venezuelan Crude (heavy oil) is considerally cheaper than West Texas Intermediate, Brent or Saudi light crudes. The U.S. has a cheap sources of crude, which they up-grade in U.S. domestic refineries for commercial purposes. I believe the real motive of Richardson to "drive down" energy prices is to conceal that inflation is here, and Y2K problems and a cold winter will exasperate the problem.

4. The Oil Company I am currently working with are anticipating problems (in their oversea operation in particular). To the best of my knowledge, they have conducted little if any Y2K testing. I am under the impression they shall fix the problems as they come up. So let me ask you all this: If a major multi-national company has spent minimal money on Y2K testing, what would you think cash strapped National Oil Companies have spent..........nothing!

5. On November 30th, 1999, the International Energy Agency (as reported by Reuters) has drawn up plans for global rationing of oil production.

6. The Middle Eastern producing countries export very little crude to the U.S. They could care less what the U.S. thinks, unless of course a problem were to spring up that would shut-off their taps (which would take another war). Some how I doubt that shall happen in the next 3 months.

Sorry Mr. Richardson, but unlike your buddies being able to manipulate the POG down they will not be able to do the same with the price of crude. Middle Eastern countries are wise enough not to trust the West. Historically, OPEC has only intervened in collapsing oil prices, not rising prices. Unlike the past when Middle Eastern producers were awash in petro-dollars, they now have debts to pay........Gulf War for example.

It is my understanding OPEC will not meet again until March 2000. I believe OPEC has stalled and will continue to stall their meetings due to Y2K concerns. OPEC is very much a re-active as opposed to pro- active organization. A collapsing stock market, thus a collapsing dollar would be in their interest so as to monitize U.S. dollar debts (similiar to what the U.S. did to Japan in the early '80s). As the dollar collapses relative to the Euro, producers can agree to be paid in Euros.

Saudi's Maaden purchasing the other half of Boliden Gold Mining Company (just before Y2K) is a tip-off (in my opinion) this game is coming to a conclusion.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.

The International Harry Schultz Letter

"The premier international financial, socio, geopolitical & philosophical newsletter"

Gold & Black Gold Per Harry Schultz

Gold "should" move up in late Dec, due to a likely pre-Y2K stk mkt fear selloff & a likely US$ price peaking out. Stks-down, $-down normally equal: gold-up. But gold's supply/demand forces have been both openly & covertly blocked by the establishment so far this year. They simply can't afford to allow a free-mkt gold price. The stakes are too high for them. And "them" hold the levers of power-- political, financial, media. They manipulate not only the gold price but the media to squash any Y2K fears, thus inhibiting a rush to quality. But gold's chart shows a bullish downwedge pattern & its correction has almost reached the vital 61.8% retracement number of 280, basis London PM fix. Price should hold there. If not, odds shift to test the summer low around 253.

The bullion-bank cannibals, who have been shorting gold (with the help of NY Fed Reserve Bank, & an OK from Greenspan), to cap the price & prevent a free mkt in gold, are unlikely to want to hold short positions during the year-end & year-start. BUT while speculators, hedge funds & private bullion banks may not want to be gold-short over year-end, the US govt may not mind. It has deep pockets (yours!) & doesn't mind the risk. It can spend all of your money it desires, to prevent a free gold mkt. Spitting into the wind doesn't bother govts.

But this is now becoming transparent & abhorrent to a growing number, so this illegal maneuvering by man&beast will be coming to an end soon. Either via a Y2K-meltdown of many banks &/or via a legal attack by GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Assn), who aim to bring into court the anti- trust violators, the mkt/price-fixers. A war chest is being filled to fund this. A major gold mine (whose name I haven't permission to quote) threw its $upport behind GATA last month. Others will follow. U too? Everyone should. Thanks Hugo for your $upport.

After decades of eating their young, gold producers have discovered something new: betting on gold, not against it. And gold shareholders have found their brains, & are demanding gold miners stop selling forward. When people buy a gold share they want a pure gold play, not a derivative crap shoot! People are selling Barrick (a derivative cutesy) & buying Agnico (a pure gold nugget). The charts prove which way the tide is turning: Barrick down, Agnico up. (Paul Penna is smiling down J)

Another good gold miner is Gold Fields of SoAfr. They disavow hedging, bought 12.5% of BofE 1st auction gold & big chunk of 2nd. Chairman Chris Thompson says "Hedges have largely contributed to low gold prices. It's folly for us all to continue to do so." 3 cheers! GF also listed on Nasdaq; Symbol: GOLD (catchy name, eh?). Chart says buy. Harmony of SoAfr is unhedged, disapproves of hedging. Newmont says never again will it do any hedging. Robt Chapman, Intl Forecaster, says (on gold-eagle.com): "From now, producers must reveal their hedges, or be sued. Unless demanded as a loan condition, producers should have under 12% hedged. Otherwise, they're gambling. Managers who hedge beyond that should be replaced & legal action brought against them." Amen. HSL instigated this attack on gold hedging 3 yrs ago, as a lone voice. Now it's almost mainstream, finally paying off. J

Felix Freeman, ScotiaMcLeod analyst, reports "The nature of gold buying is changing. Wealthier investors are buying large lots, often US$1-10mil, not for Y2K reasons but to exit equity mkts for capital preservation. Such buying hasn't been seen in size for 10 yrs." Big money smells a stk mkt meltdown. Cafi le Metropole reports drug dealers & money launderers are increasingly switching from $'s to gold as "gold gives them certainty." There's so much more to tell & not enough space. Always access gold news twice-wkly from gold- eagle.com & Tocqueville.com New bull mkts need a Wall of Worry to grow on. Gold has a big one. Vronsky of gold-eagle.com says "In early 1970's only 1 in 1000 were invested in gold. When gold hit $800, it was 50 per 1000. Now it's back to 1 in 1000. We predict the new gold bull mkt will increase that, thanks to the Net, to 100 per 1000." I agree. Buy the gold dips; they'll become gold chips!

Black Gold (crude oil)

The hard-core inflation fact is that commodities are rising, money supply is rocketing at historic rates, interest rates continue to rise month after month, incomes rise, & govt inflation indexes are being exposed as fraudulent. Money supply is quietly slipping into speculative stocks, artificially inflating mkt prices.

Oil is the giveaway clue. It has doubled in just a few months. I predict it will double very soon again, probably by Dec 31, to aprox US$50. And then rise another 50-100% to US$75-100 in early 2000. Only a govt price freeze & rationing can restrain/modify such a rise. Black mkts will flourish.

Oil brings us to the Y2K link in all this. The evidence is overwhelming for those willing to dig & then to believe what they find. Oil production & refining, due to Y2K unfixed & unfixable embedded chip systems, in every nation, will almost certainly suffer acutely. I forecast a drop in production of approximately 20%, & 25- 30% is not unlikely. Many oil men admit privately they're scared & most confess Y2K compliance is impossible so they're on a FOF program (Fix-On-Failure). If U read, as I have, the big oil companies reports to the US SEC (which must be honest as they are legally binding) they admit they can't assure production. Chevron tells SEC: "It's impractical to eliminate all potential Y2K problems before they arise." Shell says "no precedent exists as to the manner in which to fully detect & eliminate Y2K risks."

Exxon says critical operations or delivery failures may occur in the first few wks of 2000. And "Disruptions can't be reasonably estimated." Mobil tells SEC (but not the public): "There are an almost infinite number of additional risks which are simply not assessable & for which therefore contingency plans can't be developed. " And "A combination of failures could have a material adverse effect on Mobil's results of operations, liquidity &/or financial condition." Texaco says much the same as the others. Their PR depts however sing a different song. They say none of the above. Mike Adams, editor of Y2K Newswire, says the oil press releases will not use the phrase "Y2K-compliant". All will use qualifiers such as "Things should work" or "We believe things will work." None will guarantee the worst-case scenarios in their SEC filings won't happen.

A key point here is that govts (eg, the US) are saying everything is under control, whereas the oil companies have said (to the SEC) the worst-case scenarios are largely outside their control. Oil must be pumped, delivered (eg, by tankers & pipelines) & refined. All 3 processes are extremely Y2K- vulnerable. Every oil producing nation claims compliance; all are lying. What country, asks analyst Mike Adams, will stand up & say "We're not compliant" & instantly lose its export mkt? If U recall it was an oil supply drop of only 6% in 1973 that resulted in the sharp 1973-74 recession & mkt crash of those years. An oil supply cut of 20% guarantees a depression, not a recession. Most oil comes from 3rd world nations which all agree are not Y2K-ready. But neither are US oil producers. If U are a raging optimist, cut my projection in half, to 10%. That's still far worse than 1973-74 recession's cause. And this time stock mkts are in la-la land, making them capable of folding the global house of financial cards.

There are enough insiders who are not blind who have been buying oil futures/options to keep the spot price moving as far as the eye can see. I've recommended it as my #1 pick in HSL for months (oil, not oil shares). Amex Oil Index is at all-time high. Oil distillate stocks (supply), including heating oil, recently fell sharply. WSJ reports petrol stockpiling. Oil-dependent airlines are hedging in oil- -that pushes price up. Are airlines a logical shortsale? One study shows 75% of embedded devices in large oil wells & pipelines are inaccessible for compliance testing. Petrol rationing is possible, as pump prices rise. Will oil alone cause inflation? And how can U have depression & inflation at the same time? Inflation is already well underway, underneath govt's faultily structured indexes. And govt wants them that way, for fiscal & political reasons. Inflation is really currency devaluation, is ongoing, has destroyed savings for 2 generations, & is part of govt policy, since 1913. I'll reveal more when space allows. But oil shortages will cause shortages of thousands of products that are made from oil &/or need oil to move goods from A to B. So scarcity will crop up all over the place, but spotty. Many prices will fall, where scarcity isn't a factor (eg, property, jewelry, luxury goods), while others riselike many foodstuffs.

Harry Schultz

http://www.HSLetter.com hsl.mentor@skynet.be Tel +32 (for Belgium) 16 533 684 -- Fax +32 16 535 777 Postal address: HSL, PO Box 622, CH- 1001 Lausanne, Switzerland

8 December 1999

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.

Thank you, Andy,

I went to your site (Drudge) and couldn't find a specific Reuter's Engery site. All I found was Reuter's spotlight, World, Politics, Business, and ODD, down on the right side of the page. Would you be kind enough to give me more specific directions?

Furthermore, I will be happy to read any links you provide me, but they have to be links. I require this because I have to evaluate the source, the date, if there is meta-quotiing involved, etc.

May I please have the links?

-- (Ladylogic@aol.com), December 11, 1999.

Dear Lady-Illogic:

Your dad was right to talk you out of investing in oil. You are not ready yet for prime time on that one. I'm not trying to be facetious or callous, merely pointing out that you understand far to little about the geopolitical economic interdependencies of this market to be able to participate in a meaningful way. Put simply you don't know shit about shinola and the big boys/girls would clean your clock on the Merc or any other exchange for that matter.

Your rather simplistic approach to the market gives away your neophyte status. I'll just ask Uncle Bob from Okie, or believe whatever some PR flak tells me (when the guy doesn't even know who Baker Hughes is). You should spend some time learning about your subject matter before sounding off against people like Andy who happen to know a thing or two more than Uncle Bob and your daddy.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 11, 1999.

Andy,

For once, I'm right with ya. I've traded oil futures (mostly spreads) for 10 years now. I almost never buy cheap calls or puts because of time decay and the complacency they evoke when the position goes against ya. I generally write covered calls.

When buying cheap calls, one has to be correct on both the market direction AND THE TIMING OF THE MOVE. This pre-rollover market environment is the one time that I think buying calls is prudent especially with the $2 /barrel price drop we experienced late last week. My only advice would be you have all your eggs in one strike price. Diversify a little. Pay up a little bit and spread it out. Buy some $30 strikes. Buy some heating oil and gasoline calls for refining disruptions.

Gordo, Once again, I agree. Laura is clueless enough to contend refineries don't use computers, embeddeds or electronics (this might be true in Russia but it doesn't apply to ANY US refineries). She obviously doesn't understand the most basic aspects of exploration or production.

Laura, You need to read and research a lot more and post a lot less. You are making a fool of yourself.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 11, 1999.

Gord and Downstreamer,

Thanks for all your valuable insights into the wonderful world of oil; I find them fascinating reading. But really, you should stop beating around the bush when addressing LadyLoopy:

"Dear Lady-Illogic:...... Put simply you don't know shit about shinola and the big boys/girls would clean your clock on the Merc or any other exchange for that matter......"

- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 11, 1999.

"{Gordo, Once again, I agree. Laura is clueless enough to contend refineries don't use computers, embeddeds or electronics (this might be true in Russia but it doesn't apply to ANY US refineries). She obviously doesn't understand the most basic aspects of exploration or production.

Laura, You need to read and research a lot more and post a lot less. You are making a fool of yourself."

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 11, 1999.

I can't decide whether she should be ridden out of town for all the stupid bullshit she posts, or be kept around for the entertainment value of the responses to her threads.

Laura: just because a person has a large vocabulary and a few letters behind their name doesn't mean they should automatically be taken seriously. That's the part you still don't get. It's been said here before, but every time you apply fingers to keyboard you display your ignorance of the real world. Maybe it's time for you to clam up while you're not oh-so-far behind..........

-- omegaman (lastman@stand.ing), December 11, 1999.

Downstreamer - thanks for the advice. I'm new at this game and what you say makes sense. Feb 435 calls are now about $30 each, they are giving them away. If the oil world wakes up the first week of January these could be gold mines :o)

I'll check out gasoline and heating oil - do you have any specific trades that you are playing?

later,

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 11, 1999.