How much warning, and what kind, would precede a nuclear strike ? In Alas, Babylon, there was a period of definite and escalating tension prior to missle launchings. Surely we aren't currently at that level ? But how many indications would there be, and what would they look like ? Or would it just happen out of the blue ? Informed opinions desired.

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), December 10, 1999

Answers

What is it? 14min. over the pole?

Oh, you mean politicly?

1.The Russians and Chinese getting chummy.

2.Then the Russian president making threatning remarks while falling down drunk.

Something like that I guess would come just befor the missiles.

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), December 10, 1999.

Well it depends. Theoretically a strike could occur with a sub launch at East and West coast cities with less then 5 minutes of warning. Since it's sub launched who gets the retaliation? Russia (most likely) or our friends the Chinese ( gets even better as more and more players enter the scene. A fully coordinated strike would require some hours to days of preparation, depending on how good our intel was, would we notice? Of course our Boomer subs would toast whoever launched an all out strike on us, even if every bomber and minuteman was knocked out. All in all its pretty much a no win situation for whoever tried it.

-- kozak (kozak@formerusaf.guv), December 10, 1999.

Probably loss of power.

Loss of power created by and EMP discharge, to undermine any opportunity for us to launch a counter strike by frying electronic circuitry..

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 10, 1999.

Out of the blue. As far as nuclear war is concerened, that's the ONLY option.

Our time from launch to impact can range from 10 to 30 minutes, depending on where they're launched from(off shore-from Russia, etc.).

As far joe shmoe is concerened, he/she would be notified by looking skyward. Our gov has shown us time and again how they like to keep the public "at ease". Nukes would be the ultamite in hush.

Not an informed op, just MHO.

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), December 10, 1999.

Thanks for these so far. I'm considering whether to take an important trip from Dec 18-22. So I need to consider everything, whether to be off my home base at that time.

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), December 10, 1999.

Anybody remember what it was like during the Cuban missile crisis, when we were so close and did not know it? Too young to know here, can somebody tell me what it felt like, and if you -- or the public in general -- knew the nukes were poised to go?

-- (normally@ease.notnow), December 10, 1999.

The warning would depend on what 'causes' the strike.

There was an interesting show on TLC last year called "Doomsday". It discussed the close calls we have had over the years with accidental nuclear war. IIRC, the last one (that we know about), was in 1995. There was a meteorlogical rocket launched in Scandenavia, and the Russians thought it was a sub-launched missle. Borris had his (drunken?) finger on the button. We were about 5 minutes away from the Big Bang. We would have never known what hit us.

To me, accidental nuclear war seems like the most likely possibility today. The warning would be bright flashes in the sky and loss of electric power as Russian SLBMs attacked our ICBM fields and bomber bases. About 10 minutes later, the Russian ICBMs would begin to hit. So, you have a very short amount of time to 'duck and cover'.

Got KI?

Hope this helps.

-- Stars and Stripes (stars_n_stripes@my-deja.com), December 10, 1999.

I forgot one thing...

The bright flashes would be followed by a loud 'boom'. :-)

-- Stars and Stripes (stars_n_stripes@my-deja.com), December 10, 1999.

Here is some information from a site entitled Nuclear Weapons Effects.

EMP Effect
Most experts agree that a full scale nuclear attack would be initiated by a high altitude (approximately 200 miles high) nuclear explosion, and that it would most probably be deployed from a satellite. A nuclear bomb detonated at that altitude will not damage living tissue, will not cause significant radiation fallout and is not a health threat to the population. The purpose of this explosion is to damage critical electrical circuitry in our retaliatory defense weapons and our military communications capabilities. This is accomplished by means of the electro magnetic pulse (EMP) associated with the explosion. One such explosion could affect an area of a thousand miles in diameter.

Collectors, such as long runs of cable, house wiring, conduit, large antennas, overhead power and telephone lines, railroad tracks, etc., gather this energy in the form of a strong current and voltage surge. All solid state electronics is vulnerable to this energy surge. The equipment does not have to be attached directly to the collector in order to be damaged. It's possible for a collector to gather in the order of a joule of energy from a one megaton, high altitude explosion. The fact that a small fraction of a joule can cause permanent damage to electronic devices, shows that the EMP threat is a serious one. The damage to equipment could include some or all of the automobile ignition systems, telephone and radio communications, airline communications, navigational aids, & computers. Our power grid throughout the United States will most probably fail. Therefore, about 95% of our radio stations will loose transmission.

If a power drop is detected, care should be taken to test telephones, radio stations, and other equipment for loss of function. Many radio stations have alternate power sources, but only about 5% of our radio stations have been hardened against the EMP. If, after checking a battery powered radio, you find that most of the radio stations are not functioning, you should take shelter immediately.

Immediately after the initial EMP explosion, SLBM's and ICBM's would probably be launched against targets in the United States. An ICBM from Russia would reach the center of the continental United States in about 25 minutes. A missile from a submarine could reach us in 8 minutes. However, we are not currently seeing Russian nuclear missile submarines in our coastal waters. The 25 minutes which the power failure alarm will give you could mean the difference between life and death.

If you are asleep, a simple power-drop alarm would awaken you when the power fails. Schematics for this alarm and techniques for protecting equipment against EMP can be found in our book, NUCLEAR DEFENSE ISSUES on page 78. Simulations of EMP and testing of automobiles suggest a failure of the computerized ignition system could possibly be overcome by removing the battery cables, discharging them against the metal frame, waiting a few moments for the computerized systems to re-set, and then replacing the cables. It's worth a try.

-- Nabi (nabi7@yahoo.com), December 10, 1999.

Hair on the back of your neck stands up from the increased electrostatic presence just prior to the feeling of the air being sucked from your lungs. Bright flash, searing heat and the last thing you see is bleached white bones; your own.

If you are withing 75 to 100 miles of ground zero your chances of survival are nil. The only thing you can do is make sure you live nowhere near any targets. Most people have no choice. In all honesty, this is something that I cannot control whatsoever so this is something that I do not even worry about.

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 10, 1999.

Rob,

You clearly don't have a clue what you're talking about. To see what the effects of a nuclear blast would be, check out the Nuclea r Blast Mapper site.

-- Nabi (nabi7@yahoo.com), December 10, 1999.

The Suprise Attack, (useing Dec. 9th/10th as an example)

1st.-- You take out the president. When he was returning from the funeral, he was flying over the Atlantic in Air Force One. A sub could pop up in its path, fire a 10 kilo nuke, and in one minute or less, him and those launch codes he carries are toast.

The Vice Pres. was with him I think. If not so what. Washington DC and five other east coast cities are Sun Spots in the next five minutes anyway (all from the same sub).

Sec. of State, she was in Egypt at the time. If she could have send the launch codes. I'm sure she would have been stopped in that same minute that Air Force One disappeared.

On the west coast, another sub would have launched a stike on five or less ocean front properties.

Off the coast of Texas, one more sub would have taken out five or more targets in the nations interior.

Russian satilites would have dropped at least two 10 megaton warheads into the sky above the USA, just for the EMP effect.

This all would/could/might happen in ten minutes or less ( my guess is five).

In the following five minutes, NATO command in Europe and all American allies world wide would be told to stand down by Russia. That or face the same. They also would be told it was a limited strike. Only 10 or more US cities were taken out but, if any other countries launched, then the world would perish.

All survivors in the US (this might take a few days) would be told to surrender their arms or be crushed by Chinesse troops.

Anyway, That's how I see it happening.

-- SilentRunning (CanYouHearMe@Calling.You), December 10, 1999.

The military may have about 20 minutes for an ICBM. YOU will have ZERO minutes because they won't tell you.

-- A (A@AisA.com), December 10, 1999.

I have my doubts that it would end there. A nuclear strike wouldn't take out the navy, and even after destroying the ability of the U.S. to retailiate with ICBMs or bombers launched from U.S. bases, there's still quite a large air force to deal with, not to mention the navy.

Even now with our armed forces so battered by the Liar In Chief's attempt to destroy our military readiness, Russia would still end up as a parking lot.

-- Tim the Y2K nut (tmiley@yakko.cs.wmich.edu), December 10, 1999.

I was in high school during the Cuban crisis. Government did think more of its citizens then. I remember the drill we had when we emptied a school of about 600+ students, had them completely off the grounds in 11 min. I was standing in the aisle of a very crowded bus that was rocketing out of town almost if not on two wheels. Not driven by the bus driver but by a janitor. Wild, wild ride. And we were dropped off in two central locations that gave us 1/2 mile walk. We loved it!!!! Don't kids always? Never saw the danger.

-- all the time (anywhere@usa.com), December 10, 1999.

I was in high school during the Cuban crisis. Government did think more of its citizens then. I remember the drill we had when we emptied a school of about 600+ students, had them completely off the grounds in 11 min. I was standing in the aisle of a very crowded bus that was rocketing out of town almost if not on two wheels. Not driven by the bus driver but by a janitor. Wild, wild ride. And we were dropped off in two central locations that gave us 1/2 mile walk. We loved it!!!! Don't kids always? Never saw the danger. Can't do that now, too much traffic and too much chance of someone wanting some money on a lawsuit. Such is greed. I could have died in my mother's arms possibly. Not the same for my children/grandchildren.

-- all the time (anywhere@usa.com), December 10, 1999.

Followed the interesting page that allows you to track devastation of a nuclear blast. I'M toast...grin. There's nothing to be gained by worrying about it. I could spend my days wondering WHICH target I'm close to that they'd hit...NAH...I have better things to do.

beej

-- beej (beej@ppbbs.com), December 10, 1999.

Normally at ease re: Cuban missile crisis. My mother, who I only saw cry twice in my lifetime (she's 86+ now) was standing at the kitchen sink, shaking and crying, about 2:30 pm when we came home from school on the peak day of the missile crises. (I was 12.) We asked her if someone died (that's the only other time she cried, when a friend committed suicide) and she said, no, the Russians were sending ships by Florida and it looked like they were going to nuke us. I remember vaguely for days before on the nightly news the top story was the "showdown" with Kruschev. Most aware adults were pretty hysterical, although the teachers in school tried to act cool. (When JFK got killed shortly after that, all the adults just lost it.)

-- Dot (dromano@snet.com), December 10, 1999.

Nice to know anyone who has an opinion is welcomed on this forum (except if your opinion is that forum participants are morons). Anyway, I don't think Count was asking about tactical warning, though thanks Nabi for your input. He wanted to know about strategic warning, indications for excalating tension. Some of the comments on the Cuban missile crisis are appropriate, as in Dot's response.

Without getting into specifics (because no one has a crystal ball), you'd see mobilization of forces (as in subs moving into place). I'm not sure the press would pick up on this but maybe the prez would make some kind of statement. You'd also see some kind of miracle in Russia, if you're thinking the attack will come from them. They are not economically capable of launching and carrying out an attack. They are expending too much in Cheznia (spelling?) to turn their forces on some other country. Also, think of Hitler. He had his ducks in order as he began he take over of the world. He first had the people behind him, supporting him and willing seduced by his leadership. Sorry Russia doesn't have that social backing. So another miracle would have to occur, the people need to stand behind their leader.

Just some of the realistic indications prior to launch.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), December 10, 1999.

Well, the hair on the back of MY neck is prickling.

Time to listen to Simon and Garfunkel's "Silent Night"... you know the one.

Meanwhile.. out my window, the sun is shining on the snow/ice covered bare branches and evergreens.... it is a winter wonderland.

Pax vobiscum

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), December 10, 1999.

What was it like during the cuban missile crisis? I was in elementary school in Florida...My dad worked at Cape Canaveral. We did "duck and cover" drills under our desks. We were too little to know exactly what was going on, but we were scared and excited anyway. We never had a "wild ride"...where were you? As I grew older, I noticed that it marked everyone who lived through it. I know a lady here where I am now...from the same area...She is the ONLY other GI here. Mom told us kids if we heard the alert to hightail it to Canada...(quite a journey in retrospect for a couple of 16 yr olds)...she said, "Don't come home honey..there won't be time...Take care of yourself. I love you."...She had a lot of faith in us then and now. Yeah, it marks you, living through something like that.

Remember Kennedy's assassination too. Scarey times then....scarey times now...wonder how my daughter who is 8 will remember this?

-- Ynott (Ynott@incorruptible.com), December 10, 1999.

Ynott... interesting connections. I too was in elementary school. Remember WELL the duck-n-cover drills. Also have a VIVID recollection of a particular dream of hundreds of planes coming over to bomb us (obviously a scene from a WWII movie, but just goes to show the fear us little kids had). And now I have kids about the same age I was then.

If it turns out the pollys were right I think I'll write a big ol' grant proposal to study how the Bay of Pigs led to Millennial madness. Oughta be good for $50K or so dontcha think?

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), December 10, 1999.

Thanks everybody, very interesting, Maria you wrote: They are not economically capable of launching and carrying out an attack. I believe you that this is true in the strictly rational sense.

However, isn't it a fact that, from a purely physical and operational point view, if the completely disregarded any possible future benefit or consequence to the act, that they could press some buttons and send a lot of stuff our way, on fairly short notice ? They do have this mechanical capability right ?

So your statement would actually be: "They do not have the economic resources to sucessfully execute a plan for long-term, strategic warfare, under rational (as defined by the West) cost-benefit analysis."

That version does not preclude a not-fully-rational, semi-suicidal massive first strike (as Japan's attack on the US at Pearl Harbor turned out to be, though it took a few years for that to become clear.) ???

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), December 10, 1999.

Well, you'd have some hints of "tensions" on the news, but much is censured there. You'd get some reports of angry tones, Pres. walking out of meeting, Russian storming out, etc. You'd see each side viewing the other with increased paranoia. If you had friends in Fema, etc. a few would let you know when gov. was going to the various bunkers. A bolt from the blue would, however, be most likely. The SLBM's would hit first...followed by the ICBM/s/ Bombers. Actually all you'd probably ever see would be a huge flash illuminating the sky and burning out your retinas.

-- Ihavebecomedeath,shatterer of worlds (Gaveupprotesting@nuked.com), December 10, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Maria hints at her opinion that: ...forum participants are morons...

As I asked last time I saw her say this: Since you think this... tell us why you participate.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), December 10, 1999.

Tim the Y2k nut,

There are some things that I believe you are incorrect on. 1) It wouldn't be too hard to take out most of the Navy with a few MIRVed ICBMs. All they need is a fair idea of where the carrier groups are (easily done with tattletales (intel ships), and satellite data). Next, send some MIRVed ICBMs into the area and saturate the area. Poof, no carriers. A few nuclear torpedoes (which the Soviets DO have) take care of most of the rest of the Navy. Stick a few torps or Nuke cruise missiles into naval bases, and you can forget the Navy as a viable force.

2) We have very few nuclear capable Tomahawks anymore. They are not being produced anymore, and our glorious leader Clinton used up most of the remainder against the Serbs.

3) The B1 bomber is basically useless for penetrating the air defenses of the Soviet Union, as is the B52.

4) We've been dismantling our ICBMs, decommisioning our boomers, attack subs, and surface fleet. Our probable opponents have upgraded their capabilities while we have lost most of ours. The Topol-M mobile missile is a case in point.

Sure, some of the Soviet's equipment may not work due to lack of maintenance, but even so, they probably have more operational weapons than we do, and they sure do have the will to use them.

As for strategic warning, who knows? I'd say that in case of power loss, check to see if battery operated equipment still functions. If not, check to see if your automobile will function. If none of these do, head for the shelter as fast as possible. Depends on how close you are to probable targets (you should know this, or you NEED to find out).

-- Bill (billclo@msgbox.com), December 11, 1999.

What difference does it make how much notice THEY (TPTB) get? It's the notice that YOU get. Since TPTB aren't going to warn you, the notice YOU will get is ZERO. The only notice you will get, depending on where you are, is one or more of the following: a bright flash of light; you notice you are vaporized; a sudden huge wind blowing your house down and collapsing it on you; your electric lights work, but your computer, TV, and radios crap out; your electricity goes out, and your battery or windup radios don't work...

Your government -- "to protect and serve" :-)

-- A (A@AisA.com), December 12, 1999.

A,

You're right in that probably that TPTB won't give the citizens much if any warning, but it's incorrect to assume that the first warning we'd get is all of us dying. In the cities, possibly, yes, but not the rural folk.

I personally live at least 20 miles from a likely tertiary target, although there are several secondary targets around further away. I'd probably get warning in the form of power outage, and see the blasts, but it's not likely to collapse the house, and crisp me.

Now the radiation from downwind primary targets is another matter...glad I have a decent shelter nearly done.

-- Bill (billclo@msgbox.com), December 12, 1999.

Count, Japan had lots to gain by that attack on Pearl. Militarily Japan gave up a few resources (lost one or two planes) and crippled our pacific fleet, sorry, I mean completely destroyed our fleet, a great victory for Japan. Japan was already in the war. There were other "indictations" out that we ignored (one person predicted the attack but predicted it a week earlier). These are the signs that give us strategic warning.

Russia has the weapons to destroy us (just as Japan did) but to use them when the other "indications" aren't present is stupid even for the Russians. For if they use them, they no longer have them, draining their resources while their economy can't support replenishment. Further, one doesn't give up resources unless they can get something in return. The retaliation would destroy the rest of Russia.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), December 13, 1999.

Count,

I consider a market collapse as a 'possible' indication. Great distractor.

But the main indicator to me in the public will be 'assasinations' here and in Europe. Also reports of terrorism which would be launched to take out radar and command and control stations would be indicators to me.

Lunev, the Russian defector, said Russia has 7000 Spetsnaz ready to take out specific targets and make assasinations, that would be followed by the EMP blasts and release of biological and chemical weapons by these commandos. The Terrorism would be blamed on bin Laden and for fifteen minutes Russia would have the opportunity to release their ICBMS, new Topol mobile missiles, and sub missiles.

I would also expect to see a major computer hack job preceding an attack by the Spetsnaz.

Luke 21:36

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), December 13, 1999.