Since predictions seem to be the rage today, here is my guaranteed prediction about martial law before rollover (available only to those who have kicked in $50 to the "Free Big Dog" fund):

THERE WON'T BE ANY.

To see why, let's assume the most reasonably doomer case we can, namely, that .gov and .mil expect a third of the nation to go black on 01/01/2000 for up to a week and expect several terrorist attacks, two chemical disasters, two water/sewage breakdowns in major cities, and the beginning of major foreign oil disruptions, with appropriate levels of panic produced by all this the first week of January.

Now:

1. First, for good or ill, there won't be a pre-rollover panic. Actually, given that the die is cast, that's VERY good for all of us, since there isn't time for prepping anyway. JIT will do "ok" since it has factored in the "they'll prepare for three days" game. There will be spot shortages and TV video of scattered runs on stores, demands for cash, etc. between 12/26 and 12/30 but they will be few taking the country as a whole. Put another way, the country doesn't believe Y2K is going to be a major problem, so why will there be a panic?

2. As a result of 1., a pre-rollover, national lockdown would be utterly counter-productive and would risk producing a panic that has been successfully forestalled. It would also drive potential terrorists underground at a time when intel wants to flush them out.

3. Even with a third of the country likely to do down for a week, .gov. and .mil can't be sure where.

4. Ditto with respect to chem, terrorism et al.

5. There aren't enough troops briefed, trained and prepositioned to manage a national lockdown.

6. Given the above and the doomer assumptions I posit, prepositioning and/or alert readiness of key NG and other forces is SMART and underway. It will be focused on critical infrastructure (defense, utility, water, etc) response teams and the ability to project power quickly (within 24 hours) to a small number of exposed urban/regional areas (NYC, DC, Atlanta, SOCAL, NOCAL and Cascadia), if required.

7. The earliest any visible deployments will occur is 01/01/2000 and will ALWAYS be FOF depending on where incidents take place. For instance, the cities that win the "water/sewage" breakdown contests will receive Fed/NG support.

A corollary set of assumptions would explain why international risks at rollover are of greater concern to U.S. planners than domestic (domestic terrorism excepted). See a future "Big Dog Report".

Subscribers to the Big Dog fund get a free bonus recommendation: don't party hearty in a big city over rollover. Times Square, DC, LA and San Francisco are gloriously high-risk locales for rollover terrorism. Caveat emptor.

You know, this "newsletter business" is fun.

Now, coming up when I'm good and ready, my "insider predictions" about martial law AFTER the first week of January ... that'll be another $50 to the "PLEASE free Big Dog fund" and you'll get a baseball cap with my name on it.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 09, 1999

Answers

Big Dog, I agree 100% with your predictions, but I will be damned if I will pay $50 for them. Shoot, I could get 3 months of Remanent Review from Gary North for that!!! LOL Keep talking and you will talk your way to freedom, Big Dog...I am sure of it.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), December 09, 1999.

Taz -- $45?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 09, 1999.

Your Bigness,

Were I not the starving artist type I am I would gladly contribute to your cause (right after contributing to Save The Ferrets and Adopt A CEO). My concurrance with your synopsis will have to suffice for now. I'm pretty skeptical about the Martial Law scenario before the first of the year as well, for much the same reasons. Plus, after the first of the year it will only be as likely as given circumstances dictate. If it is declared it will likely be only in those areas effected by substantive disruptions. And if the disruptions are such that they encompass the entire country, there would be no way that we have enough manpower to enforce it. This does not comfort me too much though: where I live I'd be a LOT more worried about my neighbors than the authorities.

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), December 09, 1999.

I tend to doubt will see marshal law before the Jan. 3 for one reason: Bill (there won't be any problems) Clinton isn't going to make himself look like an ass by declaring marshal law before the whole country starts coming apart at the seams in Jan.

BB, I think your way off base that vital infrastructure is going to be protected for Y2K. I live a few miles from a hydro-electric plant, and there is no sign at all that this facility is being fortified or stock piled for Y2K. My feeling is that units like Delta, Seals, and FBI HRT. will used for stuff like rescuing movie stars.

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), December 09, 1999.

Furthermore, since my preps are completed down to the second wood- fired hot-waqter heater and the pressure tank on the manual pump on the new well, enabling hot and cold running water in both bathrooms and the kitchen; and the woodstove ready for intallation and the propane freezer ready for hookup to the 400 gal propane tanks, etc. etc. I am now going over to the other side and becoming a POLLY. Nothing wil happen, and now gotta get ready for it. 23 days .... Should be enough time to get ready for nuttin' if I put my back into it.

>"<

-- SH (squirrel@huntr.com), December 09, 1999.

Has it occurred to any responder this is not the real 'Big Dog'?.....duuuuhhhh.

-- Boy Wonder (robin@the.cave), December 09, 1999.

Boy Wonder -- gee, is this out of character or something? Yes, it IS me.

Taz -- ok, $40?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 09, 1999.

SH,

Can you please explain to me how you hook a pressure tank to a manual pump? Is this a special kind of pressure tank? As much info as you can share please, would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

-- Mark (Markmic@kynd.net), December 09, 1999.

Uh, mmmm, you seem to have the wrong thread. Though, for another $50, I could ....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 09, 1999.

Cascadia?? LOL!! First we would have to decide whether it is in California or Oregon...It's not on the Rand McNally maps.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), December 09, 1999.

Big Dog,

Just what are we to free you from? OK, I'll either kick in a nickel seventy-five or bake you a cake with a file in it for leaving CENCAL off your picks to click. Not sure I personally like your forecasting any better than C. Gerges, though.

-- flora (***@__._), December 09, 1999.

K. -

Now you've done it! Suggesting that Cascadia is in California! Ashton & Leska will be all over you like a cheap suit for that! 8-}

Big Dog -

With all the Marine and Navy transports cruising I-5 and I-15 around here, I'm not sure we'd even notice NG presence in Sandy Eggo. I was a bit taken aback last week when I saw a camo truck parked downtown and a fair number of jarheads milling around in the Civic Center plaza. Thought they'd declared martial law and forgot to tell me. Turned out it was rehearsal for the Navy/Marine Bands concert. *phew*

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 09, 1999.

Flora -- Make it angel food with chocolate icing please. And put a Trailmaster inside ....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 09, 1999.

BD,

Only one Trailmaster? Might be fun to have an extra for barter. Now don't you worry, we've got men like Tim May to the north & A to the south to hold down the fort on the left coast.

Thanks for not confirming that I'm to become a waif and have to hike out to Wyoming. {I still may choose to lick the bowl.}

-- flora (***@__._), December 09, 1999.

I expect that by 31 Dec, NG and USMC troops will be prepositioned in NYC, DC, LA and a host of other areas that intelligence and planning agencies have secretly determined to be high risk.

I would also not be surprised if one or more 'incidents' (terrorism, bank run, accident) occurs before the rollover.

I do not expect travel restrictions until after rollover, and then only if things are very chaotic. Fuel rationing, which I expect sometime after January, will impose its own travel restrictions.

-- a (a@a.a), December 09, 1999.

Well, I can confirm some interesting sightings around my neck of the LA woods too. Jarheads roaming around Target stores and Super K-mart. The strange and wonderous thing is I am 35 miles from El Toro and in Air Force country really. We only see jarheads around Memorial Day and Armed Forces Day or a local Air Show. There aren't any local Marine or Army facilities around me except perhaps the Seal Beach Naval Weapons Station which is also about 15 miles away.

Anyway, I don't think there NEEDS to be any "martial law" declared.

Here is the bottom line, all that has to be done is a quiet declaration of a "national emergency".

No press, no TV announcement, nothing...all in the interests of "national security".

Deployments need not happen, immediately, etc.

FEMA becomes activiated and assets are FEDERALIZED and now under the new command structure. It's all precautionary and if the word get's out then the story will be "it's all precautionary, don't worry about it".

Martial law isn't necessary and may in fact infringe on the new powers and the new command structure that has been established. It's my understanding that Martial law gives authority to the Military Commanders in the field and NOT FEMA.This goes directly against the goals and even the way the power should be distributed and directed under the circumstances.

Unless there is an outright attack by foreign or domestic enemies then I don't think "martial law" is what is needed. Only actions and policies under the control of FEMA such as what is utilized in a natural disaster are necessary.

In other words, if FEMA decides that as a precaution it is necessary to preposition NG around a facility of importance to national security they can do that. If they need to close routes into and out of a city they can do that.

You've got to think about this the way the .gov is thinking about it. IT"S A THREE DAY STORM.

Think about the implications of a hurricane which lasts three days, lingering in one particular area. The affects of the storm that lasted three days may go on for months, if not years. Hurricane Hugo, Hurricane Mitch, the Simi Valley Earthquake, etc.

I agree. Martial never has to be declared, only a national emergency and that going in to effect doesn't have to be announced publicly until after the fact.

Just MHO.

Mike

Who could use $50 about now : )

=======================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 09, 1999.

Mike,

Three Day Storm... what was the duration of Desert Storm?

-- flora (***@__._), December 09, 1999.

Dear Mr. Dog

As another possible scenario... consider this.

First of all Mike, I don't believe the gov't believes in a three day storm... they only say a three day storm for all of the warn-out rational we have all come to know and love.

If the .gov and .mil believe, as I do, the we face a great threat of terrorism, and if the embedded systems are as bad as the infamous "Mr. CEO" says they are, then we are in for an extremely tumultuous situation.

Given those hypotheses, if Bill wants to have full control of the situation, I feel he will do it earlier rather than later because it very hard to stop a train from derailing when its running at full speed.

I still stand on my prediction that he will exercise some form of control before New Years. And, if you recall an earlier thread where Ed Yourdon and I discussed this, the 24th of December, when all of us are preoccupied and docile and everyone is with family and friends, would be a good time to do it.

If he waits, and all hell breaks loose because suddenly we lose Chicago in a mushroom cloud, it will be impossible to control everyone's panic and prevent the financial systems from crashing immediately.

Sorry. No $50.

But I like your posts, keep it up.

Keith

-- Keith Nealy (keithn@aloha.net), December 09, 1999.

MT is right . NO martial law. Federal Emergency, with FEMA calling the shots. Event driven, probably not before rollover.

Roll me over in clover, Rover, over and over. Oops, sorry. Wrong Dog.

Now, about that hat, Big Dog. $50 seems a bit high... I might be able to swing that for a 'Free Mrs. Big Dog' hat...

Godspeed,

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), December 09, 1999.

So many people go to visit grandmas or the relatives for Christmas. I doubt that the feds would lockdown at that time. Too many people would be displaced and an additional burden on local emergency services. I am hoping that if they do it, they would leave some space for everyone to get home and settled back into routine.

-- anon (anon@anon.calm), December 09, 1999.

So many people go to visit grandmas or the relatives for Christmas. I doubt that the feds would lockdown at that time.

I'll cast my vote with Big Dog, but I'm making it a point to only go to and from work during that time period and to carry my bugout bag in the car. I'm still hoping for an 8" snow storm, like the one we had last year at New Year's that closed down Chicago O'Hare.

-- (banjo_76@yahoo.com), December 09, 1999.

BigDog:

I think there will be an unexpected stock market crash before any martial law. It depends on where that NASDAQ moon rocket explodes...

BTW, is that $50 donation tax-deductible?

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), December 09, 1999.

Neil, by "three day storm" what I mean is that the system is only able to react to failures and not be proactive. Russ is right, they don't know when and where they will occur.

My feeling is they will act behind the scenes, out of view of the public because acting within view would create too many problems and even suggest to enemies where problems might occur.

The "three day storm" only refers to the fact that by the time they do act the storm would have already caused damage. FEMA was proactive during the last hurricane and people in Florida were evacuated but there was no major damage. However, taking that experience into account, it isn't difficult to see the kind of power that both fear and pressure might do to motivate people into action "for their own best interests".

Here in Southern California we are surrounded by military assets and contractors and oil refineries and ports. There is NO WAY the gov and the mil would allow those kinds of assets to sit unguarded. It wont happen. They will be around, though they may not be visible. I'm sure they can deploy in a heartbeat.

Lockdown isn't necessary, per se. If problems occur most people will stay inside their homes. During riots, people stay inside. I know that from first hand experience. Those who venture out have suspect motives and I'm sure they would be "handled". Look at what happened recently in Seattle. Overall, law enforcement is outnumbered. The only thing that keeps a populous in check is the willingness of the people to remain on the right side of the law.

Mike

=======================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 09, 1999.

Mark --

The pressure tank is a nifty device that shoud be standard hardware for your plumber -- at least it is for ours out here, who says that he has instlaled a number of them. It's identical in principal and operation to a pressure relief tank: a rubber ballon or bladder is encased in a steel tank/drum; the tank is filled/pressurized through an a one-way inlet valve using your manual pump. My tanks holds 86 gallons in a 100 gallon "drum". The filled bladder naturally pressurizes the feed line with the water contained inside, and VOILA, you have presssurized lines.

>"<

-- SH (squirrel@huntr.com), December 09, 1999.

BigDog,

How many feet of fence would you build for the $50 ?

Or is that what the fund is for - to Free Big Dog from having to Build Fence?

-Greybear

-- Got Post Drivers?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), December 09, 1999.

Greybear:

BigDog could use the $50 for a safety helmet!

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), December 09, 1999.

I must disagree.

BD is the ONE amongst us who has proven beyond a shadow a doubt that he does NOT need a safety helment. The rest of us don't know, yet.

He got whacked pretty hard. I was there and got the glancing blow on my arm. He apparently suffered no long term effect.

It's not like he's starting threads trying to raise money or anything!

-Greybear

-- Got Post Y2K annuities?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), December 09, 1999.

No taker on the $50. I don't expect that martial law will be declared before the end of the year. (Note to those that spell it "marshall" -- it's spelled correctly in the header, please take head.)

As far as a panic, I do expect empty shelves as significant numbers of people try to prepare at the last minute. Probably a few isolated incidences of violence, similar to the post-Thanksgiving sales, but mostly it will be managed if only by grocery stores imposing limits.

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), December 10, 1999.

Big Dog, I'm all confused! I thought Ashton & Leska WERE in California, where IS Cascadia? And whoa, I thought the rumor was just national emergency being declared. Martial law?! I'll never get to sleep now.

-- Jill D. (jdance@mindspring.com), December 10, 1999.

MARTIAL LAW??? Are you guts out of your cotton-picking minds? Who has time for crap like that? If it hits the fan, hey, you're on your own. Call your Congressman. Call Whoopi Goldberg. Folks, ... I feel your pain, your anxiety, But Hells' bells, Hillary will be in New York! I got plans, folks. Socks might not be safe.

-- Wild Woolly (Willie@DaBigHouse.tax), December 10, 1999.

This is a "reaction" world. It'll take an "event" (or several) before they appear to roll out the dot mil, et. al., carpets.

Expected the unexpected. Not what you "expect" the unexpected is.

;-D

Diane

(BD... that $50 goes to CostCo... sorry).

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 10, 1999.

I'll agree with Big Dog for one reason only; Bill and Hill need SOMEONE (anyone) to show up at their party!

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), December 10, 1999.

Greybear -- I dunno, some people think I have been suffering long- term effects from that sledgehammer ....

All -- Would my info seem more valuable if I were charging $395? ;-)

Seriously, I have no inside info (duh) and a good general rule in my family is that any prediction I utter is a valid guarantee of its opposite. I do believe that we need to be careful with this subject, for both obvious and not-so-obvious reasons.

I am as troubled as anyone by some of the goings-on of the past decade. Yet, it may turn out that Koskinen's repeated statements that localities will be ON THEIR OWN if Y2K disruptions hit is not something we should welcome as a great boon. Clumsy though .gov can be, they have a reasonable track record on sending people to help citizens when disasters strike. If I lived in an urban area, I would want such help available at rollover -- not visible, not overbearing, but available.

We have real enemies in this world -- Hussein, China (IMO) and others (some of whom, like Russia, may be experiencing their own debate on whether they/we are still enemies) somewhat less certain. I have said before and I'll say again, I believe our government would much prefer maintaing internal U.S. morale so that we remain able to project power overseas in case of Y2K requirements for same. Internal civil war is not the way to encourage citizens to sign-up for overseas or to protect the interests of us all.

Let's hope that cool heads prevail in and out of .gov and .mil, both domestically and internationally.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 10, 1999.

Big Dog,

I understand from some of my oil contacts that certain oil installations WILL be under military guard come rollover. I understand there is concern of a terrorist threat. My sources are not sure, though who will be pulling guard duty...the NG or US Army or some other federal law enforcement forces. Also unclear as to whether or not these guards would be publicly visible or not. One source says that this info came from FEMA reps who visited their firm back last February.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 10, 1999.

Thanx, RC, makes a whole lot of sense. Ditto for crucial water, utility, natural gas and telecom sites. If anyone else has info, hard or anecdotal, let us know.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 10, 1999.

You got it. $50 worth of garlic powder is on its way! As George Carlin used to say, "We drive a truck to your house!" Personally, I have always preferred marital law to martial law, though.

-- Judy (wednesdayschild@hotmail.com), December 10, 1999.

Hail, the gang's (almost) all here!

Isn't it ABOUT TIME for another FRL thread, one to carry us into the New Year? Rob? Anyone?

I missed out on the other ones last summer (why, I dunno -- modem phone line to the hammock wasn't long enough, I guess). I'm shy -- don't know how to start 'em. Someone?

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), December 10, 1999.

During WWII, water tanks and reservoirs were high priority...Hoover Dam was protected by a brace of .50 calibre Browning machine guns in a pillbox visible today on the Arizona side of the Colorado River. Syracuse used to have a lovers lane on a hill at the base of a HUGE water tank...the military closed it down.

I agree, these vital infrastructure poionts will be individually protected, but you could have a quasi-Martial Law based on that recently signed Executive Order "fig leaf." The two operations are not mutually exclusive, but orthogonal.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), December 10, 1999.

Once again, I would request of R.C. that he consider proving his bona fides (in the same way that Dan the Power Man did). Until he does, all his reports should be weighted accordingly.

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), December 10, 1999.