I'm flabergaasted

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In my e-mail tonight=>

I'm new to this list, and to be honest I subscribed to see what everyone's fears are concerning Y2K. My biggest concern about January 1st is whether or not we'll have enough seating at the New Year's Mass I'm planning for our Diocese. I don't know much about the Y2K crisis, but I've pretty much dismissed the predictions. It doesn't seem like anyone here is very concerned. Should I be concerned? What are your ideas about the dangers and predictions of things to come?

-- DuffyO (duffyo@mailcity.om), December 08, 1999

Answers

Well Duffy, it goes like this.................

-- Richard Shockwave (vision441@aol.com), December 08, 1999.

Duffy,

There are categories on the bottom of the page, so you can search based on your interests. Do you read any of the other y2k sites, like Gary North, Michael Hyatt/

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 08, 1999.


Suggest laying in some extra wine & wafers. Might come in handy for Easter.

-- All (done@home.mil), December 08, 1999.

Duffy, the time for alarmism is over, buddy. Now we all pray to God and play the hand we're dealt.

Good luck Father, and thanks to you and all the other thoughtful forum contributors for making the past 18 months riveting but refreshing.

-- a (a@a.a), December 08, 1999.


Our future is not in our hands, And No!, I don't plan on doing any harm to my fellow human, SHEESH, what a concept! I can't even wring a chicken's neck! Wimpy Nana

-- Stupid Humans Can't know (InGod'sHands@hereweare.com), December 08, 1999.


?

-- Older Than you (Are you Retired Duffy@navy.com), December 08, 1999.

Duffy-

That would be New Years Critical Mass, wouldn't it?

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), December 08, 1999.


If you are true in your heart, God will help you. I will help with this buy beans, rice,some thing to make soup to feed the most people you can. Think of what you need if it is not in the stores. Try to get it in bulk as soon as you can!

-- ET (bneville@zebra.net), December 08, 1999.

Check this out, Duffy:

Impact of Year 2000 Technology Problems in the United States Taken from Dr. Paula Gordon's web site: http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon/

0 - No real impact 1 - Local impact for some enterprises 2 - Significant impact for many enterprises 3 - Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies 4 - Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents 5 - Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks 6 - Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies 7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems, disruptions 8 - Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law 9 - Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread disruptions, martial law 10 Collapse of US government; possible famine ----------------------------------------------

NOW CAREFULLY READ THE FOLLOWING:

20 Experts rank the serious of y2k -

Taken from Russ Kelly's web site: http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html

Dave Bettinger. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 6.5. August 1998- 7.5. October 1998- 7.8. December 1998- 7.8. January 1999-7.8. February 1999- 7.5. March 1999- 7.4. April 1999- 7.4. May 1999- 7.4. June 1999- 7.5. August 1999- 7.8. September 1999- 7.8. October 1999- 7.8. B.S.B.A.- Management. I.T. professional 17 years; Y2k practitioner 5 years. Author; frequent speaker on national circuit; co-leader of international year 2000 working group. (www.year2000.unt.edu) [Click here for statement from Dave]

 Joe Boivin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 9.5. August 1998- 9.6. October 1998- 9.7. December 1998- 9.8. January 1999- 9.9. February 1999- 9.9. March 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. May 1999- 10.0. June 1999- 10.0. July 1999- 10.0. August 1999- 10.0. October 1999- 10.0. Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert. Former Director of Year 2000 program for Canada's second largest bank (CIBC). President of the Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan, organization committed to developing national and global level solutions to the Year 2000 technological crisis.

 Dennis Elenburg (aka "The Y2k Weatherman"). Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.77. August 1998- 7.77. October 1998- 7.77. December 1998- 7.77. January 1999- 7.77. February 1999- 7.1. April 1999- 7.1. May 1999- 7.1. June 1999- 7.1. July 1999- 7.1. August 1999- 7.1. September 1999- 7.0. October 1999- U.S. 5.0, outside U.S. 7.0. Dennis specifically wants you to note his statement on the ranking by clicking on "Statement from Dennis" below. Y2k Consultant to a major telecommunications company, editor of the free Y2kWatch News email list that reaches 20,000 subscribers, and vocal advocate for Y2k personal preparedness. (http://Y2kWatch.com/) [Click here for statement from Dennis]

 Thierry Falissard. Ranking of problem: August 1998- 9.0. October 1998- 9.0. December 1998- 8.5. January 1999- 8.5. February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.5. June 1999- 8.5. July 1999- 8.5. August 1999- 8.0. September 1999- 8.0. October 199- 8.0. French. Software developer and Systems engineer with 17 years experience working on mainframe systems. Author of 4 books about systems and of many articles in French and English IT press. 2 years dedicated to y2k issues

? Karl Feilder. Ranking of problem: July 1998- 5.0. August 1998: 6.0. October 1998- 6.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 5.0. February 1999- 6.0. March 1999- 7.0. April 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.5. June 1999- 8.0. July 1999- 8.0. August 1999- 8.0. CEO of Greenwich Mean Time, international expert on the Y2K PC problem and its resolution. PC Program Coordinator of the UK government's Year 2000 taskforce, Action 2000. He also has been appointed PC Program Advisor for the Australian government's Year 2000 taskforce, and Honorary Advisor to the South African Government. (http://www.feilder.com) [Click here for statement from Karl]

 Dr. Mark Frautschi. Ranking of problem: January 1999- 7.0. February 1999- 7.0. March 1999- 6.2. April 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. May 1999- 6.0 to 8.0. June 1999- 6.0 to 8.0. July 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. August 1999- 6.8 - 1.5, +0.5. September 1999- 6.8 -1.5, +0.5. October 1999- 6.8 -1.5, +0.5. Physicist by training, Dr. Frautschi was introduced to y2k in 1997 through his interest in the interface between the social and scientific sides of organizations like the national laboratories, where he conducted his high-energy physics research. He is the author of several articles on Y2k and frequently gives presentations and interviews about this rapidly evolving subject.

 Dr. Paula Gordon. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.0. May 1999- 9.0. June 1999- 5.0 to 9.0. July 1999- 4.0 to 9.5. August 1999- 4.5 to 9.5. September 1999- 5.0 to 9.5. October 1999- 5.0 to 9.5. Visiting Research Professor and Director of Special Projects in the Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning, School of Business and Public Management at George Washington University in Washington, DC. She speaks and writes on Y2K. Her White Paper on Y2K: "A Call to Action: National and Global Implications of the Year 2000 and Embedded Systems Crisis" is at her website.

 Dr. Reynolds Griffith. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 7.6. October 1998- 7.6. December 1998- 7.6. January 1999- 7.6 February 1999- 7.4. March 1999- 7.2. April 1999- 7.2. May 1999- 7.2. June 1999- 7.2. July 1999- 7.2. August 1999- 7.2. September 1999- 7.2. October 1999- 7.1. Professor of Finance at Stephen F.Austin State University. Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin. Holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He has been researching the Year 2000 Problem since early 1997 and has written papers and articles related to it.

? Cory K. Hamasaki. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. March 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.0. July 1999- 7.0. BA Chemistry, MS Computer Science - the George Washington University, 29 years in S/360-S390 systems programming and large systems. Discovered the 000197AF decade roll over problem in 1979, documented in Risks Digest.

Russ Kelly. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.3. October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.8. May 1999- 8.9. June 1999- 9.0. July 1999- 9.0. August 1999- 9.1. September 1999- 9.1. October 1999- 9.2. (I realize this is "earthquake zone." Please click on statement below to read my current analysis.) 36 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000 issues, editor of "Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", author of "Y2K: An Equal Opportunity Destroyer (And What You Can Do About It!)" and weekly radio talk show host of "Year 2000 and You."

 Roleigh Martin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 5 to 9. March 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. May 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. July 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. August 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. September 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. October 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. Master of Arts in Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, writer and speaker on "Y2K Embedded Systems Threat." http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin

 Michael Maynard. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 5.0. March 1999- 6.0. April 1999- 4.0. May 1999- 3.0. July 1999- 3.0. August 1999- 2.0. September 1999- 2.0. October 1999- 1.95. Michael Maynard is President of Azimuth Partners, Inc, a management and technology consulting company. He has led Y2K remediation projects for 5 years. He is columnist at large for NewsBytes and senior editor of Intenational Business publications.

 Dr. Gary North. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 10.0. August 1998- 10.0. October 1998- 10.0. December 1998- 10.0. January 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. May 1999- 10.0. June 1999- 10.0. July 1999- 10.0. August 1999- 10.0. September 1999- 10.0. October 1999- 10.0. Historian, Ph.D. in history. No known information technology background. www.garynorth.com

Dr. Scott Olmsted. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. March 1999- 8.7. April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.0. June 1999- 8.0. July 1999- 8.0. August 1999- 8.0. September 1999- 8.0. October 1999- 8.0. Doctorate in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford. 20 year software veteran. www.prepare4y2k.com

 Charles Reuben. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 7.2. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 6.7. February 1999- 6.7. March 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5. May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5. June 1999- 1.5 to 2.5. July 1999- 1.0 to 2.0. August 1999- 1.0 to 1.5. September 1999- 0.9999. October 1999- 0.75. B.Sc. (Physics,Chemistry,Biology), M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas ..programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years..

Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 6.0. February 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 5.0. May 1999- 4.5. June 1999- 4.5. July 1999- 4.0. August 1999- 4.0. September 1999- 4.0. October 1999- 4.0. Author. Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and speaker. Satellite communications pioneer. www.comlinks.com

Timothy J Wilbur. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 9.0. April 1999- 9.1. May 1999- 9.2. June 1999- 9.5. August 1999- 9.5. September 1999- 9.5. October 1999- 9.8. Dip,. Social Scientist, Research Development and Analysis, Personal Computer Business Management Consultant; Author, Y2K lecturer, founder the Beyond 2000 Awareness Project; Dip,. Homoeopathy, Iridology, Family Therapy.0

Ed Yourdon. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 7.0 to 9.0. August 1999- 7.0 to 9.0. Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in applied mathmatics from MIT. (www.yourdon.com)

Nicholas Zvegintzov. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 1.0. October 1998- 1.0. December 1998- 1.0. January 1999- 1.0. February 1999- 1.0. March 1999- 1.0. April 1999- 0.9. May 1999- 0.8. June 1999- 0.7. July 1999- 0.6. August 1999- 0.5. September 1999- 0.4. October 1999- 0.4. Author, speaker, software company president. M.A. from Oxford Univ. in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy. Researched in computer science and artificial intelligence at UC Berkeley and Carnegie- Mellon. 35 year software veteran.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 08, 1999.


Well Father,

There's good news and there's bad news. The good news is you have your priorities straight. The bad news is your priority list just got a lot longer. Here's hoping we have a Merciful start to the New Millennium. For what it's worth, the EWTN network, did a special last week on the computer problem which you might find valuable.

-- PD (PaulDMaher@att.worldnet.com), December 08, 1999.



JoseMiami, Those Y2K"experts" don't have much experience in the areas they are judging from, so the ratings on that page mean very little.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), December 08, 1999.

Cherri,

That was possibly the most witless statement I've seen on this forum.

I assume that your quotes around "y2k experts" means that you don't believe these people are, in fact, y2k experts?

hmmm...okay. Let's cut to the chase and just list -- not the predictions -- but the background of the predictors.

that would be:

-- B.S.B.A.- Management. I.T. professional 17 years; Y2k practitioner 5 years. Author; frequent speaker on national circuit; co-leader of international year 2000 working group.

-- Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert. Former Director of Year 2000 program for Canada's second largest bank (CIBC). President of the Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan, organization committed to developing national and global level solutions to the Year 2000 technological crisis.

-- Y2k Consultant to a major telecommunications company, editor of the free Y2kWatch News email list that reaches 20,000 subscribers, and vocal advocate for Y2k personal preparedness.

-- Software developer and Systems engineer with 17 years experience working on mainframe systems. Author of 4 books about systems and of many articles in French and English IT press. 2 years dedicated to y2k issues

-- CEO of Greenwich Mean Time, international expert on the Y2K PC problem and its resolution. PC Program Coordinator of the UK government's Year 2000 taskforce, Action 2000. He also has been appointed PC Program Advisor for the Australian government's Year 2000 taskforce, and Honorary Advisor to the South African Government.

-- Physicist by training, Dr. Frautschi was introduced to y2k in 1997 through his interest in the interface between the social and scientific sides of organizations like the national laboratories, where he conducted his high-energy physics research. He is the author of several articles on Y2k and frequently gives presentations and interviews about this rapidly evolving subject.

-- Visiting Research Professor and Director of Special Projects in the Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning, School of Business and Public Management at George Washington University in Washington, DC. She speaks and writes on Y2K. Her White Paper on Y2K: "A Call to Action: National and Global Implications of the Year 2000 and Embedded Systems Crisis" is at her website.

-- Professor of Finance at Stephen F.Austin State University. Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin. Holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He has been researching the Year 2000 Problem since early 1997 and has written papers and articles related to it.

-- BA Chemistry, MS Computer Science - the George Washington University, 29 years in S/360-S390 systems programming and large systems. Discovered the 000197AF decade roll over problem in 1979, documented in Risks Digest.

-- 36 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000 issues, editor of "Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", author of "Y2K: An Equal Opportunity Destroyer (And What You Can Do About It!)" and weekly radio talk show host of "Year 2000 and You."

-- Master of Arts in Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, writer and speaker on "Y2K Embedded Systems Threat."

-- Michael Maynard is President of Azimuth Partners, Inc, a management and technology consulting company. He has led Y2K remediation projects for 5 years. He is columnist at large for NewsBytes and senior editor of Intenational Business publications.

-- Historian, Ph.D. in history

-- 20 year software veteran.

-- M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas ..programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years..

-- Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and speaker. Satellite communications pioneer.

-- Dip,. Social Scientist, Research Development and Analysis, Personal Computer Business Management Consultant; Author, Y2K lecturer, founder the Beyond 2000 Awareness Project; Dip,. Homoeopathy, Iridology, Family Therapy.0

-- Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in applied mathmatics from MIT.

-- Author, speaker, software company president. M.A. from Oxford Univ. in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy. Researched in computer science and artificial intelligence at UC Berkeley and Carnegie- Mellon. 35 year software veteran.

that looks pretty "expert" to me, Cherri. And your qualifications to have an opinion are?

-- joe (joe@adeveloper.net), December 08, 1999.


"that looks pretty "expert" to me, Cherri. And your qualifications to have an opinion are?"

Same as everyone else on this forum- a computer with access to the forum. Everything else is merely speculation without independant verification.

In other words, how much do you trust self-reported information anyway?

By the by, I think Duffy was flabergasted at receiving that email; he wasn't the author. I'm not sure where his surprise is coming from however, considering the level of awareness in the general population.

harl

-- harl (harlanquin@aol.hell), December 09, 1999.


CATHOLIC TROLL? :-) non-denom doomer here.

-- tt (cuddluppy@nowhere.com), December 09, 1999.

harl-

You are correct. Duffy did indeed receive the aforementioned email, as did I. Perhaps it is not surprising, given the lack of awareness, but at this late stage it still gives me a shock to see someone with apparently NO feel for the situation whatsoever.

tt-

Duffy IS catholic, but a definite GI :)

Blessings...Mary

-- Mary (DivinMercy@aol.com), December 09, 1999.



Duffy, what is going to happen? We have been going round and round for more than a year on this and we still dont have a clue.

One thing: Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent preparing Y2K bunkers, and this is not done by wackos, religeous freaks, survivalists or chicken-littles. The bunkers are being built by the governments. The same governments who are telling us to store enough food for a weekend storm because nothing is going to happen.

That is enough info for you, now go stock up some food, water, candles, batteries and lots of warm clothes.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), December 09, 1999.


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