Cures for Y2K Could Destabilize Computers

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Cures for Y2K Could Destabilize Computers

Updated 2:11 AM ET December 8, 1999

By Neil Winton

LONDON (Reuters) - Some cures for the millennium computer bug might do more harm than good.

With just about every big company in the world spending millions of dollars on new equipment to thwart the bug, experts are worrying that Y2K solutions themselves might actually lead to crippling computer crashes.

Ironically, companies which are dutifully protecting their businesses from the bug, are unwittingly exposing them to problems induced by new systems.

It is a truism in the information technology business that new projects are always late and over budget. It often takes weeks, sometimes months, to shake down new computers and make sure they provide the functions promised.

"One of the major (millennium computer bug) problems is the need to change IT systems, a challenge at the best of times that often run over budget and over time. Introducing new systems in a limited time-frame introduces all sorts of new problems," said the Y2K pressure group Taskforce 2000.

Spending to cure the millennium computer bug has been huge.

The U.S. information technology research company Gartner Group has said companies around the world would have to spend between $300 billion and $600 billion to fix the problem. IDC, another U.S. high technology consultancy, estimated in a report last month that by the end of 1999, companies will have spent $250 billion finding, replacing, rewriting, testing and documenting computer code infected by the bug.

And all because programmers in the 1980s used two digits to record dates on software, knowing that this could trip over the two zeros in 2000 and cause computers to crash or spew out corrupt data.

CLUSTER OF CRASHES POINTS TO PROBLEM

There has already been a rash of computer systems crashes which have damaged businesses.

Earlier this year the food distributor International Multifoods of Chicago saw its business disrupted when it installed a new Y2K-ready computer system. It failed to gel with the company's traditional order system and crippled business for weeks.

In Britain, the china and crystal glass maker Royal Doulton

said it lost between 10 million and 12 million pounds ($16.25 million to $19.50 million) in sales following the failure of its new warehouse management software installed to ready the company for the millennium bug. The new software was unable to handle orders for sets of five plates for the U.S. market and recognized only orders for single items.

The U.S. confectioner Hershey Foods saw its traditional Halloween business trashed when its new computer using software from SAP AG and Siebel Systems disrupted its supply system.

Experts also point to computer crashes at Whirlpool Corp, Allied Waste Industries, and Waste Management Inc. Procter & Gamble Co, giant maker of Tide detergent, Crest toothpaste and Pampers diapers, said last month it had problems with its the global database system called SourceOne.

SYSTEMS CRASHES INDUCED BY ANALYSIS FAILURE

Peter Barnes, general manager of Survive! International, said information technology problems are often triggered by a failure to correctly analyze system requirements.

"Where the same failures have been applied to Y2K remediation or avoidance projects, the impact of failure is likely to be greater particularly where a company believes it has built an effective replacement for a non-compliant system but finds that the new system fails," Barnes said.

Survive! is an independent international user group for business which advises on preparing for problems from unforeseen disasters such as computer failure, the loss of key personnel and infrastructure from fires, floods and terrorist attacks.

Mitul Mehta, Senior European Research Manager at technology consultant Frost & Sullivan, said that many businesses which are spending large sums on anti-Y2K repairs are also deciding to upgrade their computers generally at the same time.

"That's where I see problems. They're saying we might as well put in e-commerce and web-based supply chain offerings, data warehousing and business intelligence etcetera," Mehta said.

"This means exposing systems to a whole set of applications and whole new way of doing things."

Mehta believes that this behavior is typical at medium to large companies in the retail, information technology and telecommunications businesses.

SOME EXPERTS EXPECT SMOOTH TRANSITION

Fons Kuijpers of the PA Consulting Group is much more sanguine about the problem.

Most companies have completed Y2K remediation work with plenty of time to spare, according to Kuijpers.

"I personally don't think there's going to be a massive problem," Kuijpers said.

Does he believe the much-hyped millennium bug problem is more of a damp squib than potential disaster?

"I think that's a fair assessment. There will be mishaps but they will be fairly minor, not as disastrous as people were predicting when the problem first emerged. Companies have though found significant problems which undetected and unfixed would have impacted on operations in a significant manner," Kuijpers said.

Tim Johnson, consultant at the technology researcher Ovum, is also on the sunny side of the issue.

"We have seen companies trying to install new systems rather rapidly -- Hershey was one even though it was not directly Y2K related. They've been trying to install systems too quickly and had serious problems," said Johnson.

"The evidence is that this is a manageable bit of aggravation in the developed world. There's a good bet that something nasty will happen somewhere; more likely in the developing rather than developed world," Johnson said.

======================================= End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 08, 1999

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