People are panicking already

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/city/991207/3256801.html

Link

Tuesday December 07, 1999 Share This Story With A Friend

'People are panicking already'

Over-reacting to a possible Y2K computer disruption is keeping the experts up at night, Ian MacLeod writes.

Ian MacLeod The Ottawa Citizen

One of the biggest concerns authorities now have about the Y2K bug is people -- not computers -- acting irrationally over the uncertainty of what will happen on New Year's Eve.

For months, governments and organizations responsible for emergency measures and public services have been advising people to have modest amounts of extra food, batteries, cash and other essentials on hand before Dec. 31.

And the association of gasoline retailers says motorists should fill their tanks by Dec. 29 simply to avoid a chaotic year-end run on the pumps that could create an artificial shortage.

But there's concern now that people who wait until the last minute to stock up, or otherwise reasonable folks who over-do some of their preparations for possible Y2K computer disruptions -- which officials stress are highly unlikely -- could short-circuit an orderly transition into the new millennium.

"We're very reassured that there'll be little or no disruption," says Doug Brousseau, chairman of the region's READY 2000 committee. "However, what concerns me and concerns the committee is the potential for anxiety levels to be raised and, with that anxiety, comes abnormal behaviour."

Such a reaction boils down to people's desire to reduce uncertainty, says Prof. Barry Markovsky, a social psychologist and director of the Center for the Study of Group Processes at the University of Iowa.

"We want to do whatever we judge is necessary to be prepared and we are, at the same time, making those judgments based on what we see other people doing.

"So if other people appear to be reacting in a panicked way, then we start to wonder whether we should be doing the same thing and it can suddenly spread like wildfire.

"We've been lied to before, that's the attitude."

Mr. Brousseau, also director of Ottawa-Carleton's emergency measures, says there's no evidence public anxiety is building.

Still, "if you are concerned and we haven't been able to reassure you, there's nothing wrong with getting ready for an emergency. But don't wait until the last week of December, until the last minute to do it and don't over-do it," he says.

"Over-reacting to potential situations, or anticipating a situation or a failure and taking abnormal actions to be prepared for something that's very unlikely to happen is what worries some of us."

Stockpiling gasoline, for example.

"A lot of people have purchased (portable generators), they're worried that there's going to be some kind of a power failure," says Ottawa fire Chief Gary Richardson.

"If they all run out and start buying five-gallon plastic jerry cans of gas and throwing them in their garage or worse yet, their basements, we're going to have a major problem that was created when there really was no need to create one.

"We're not expecting when we pull up at a garage fire to have an extra 100 litres of gasoline in plastic containers."

Another worrisome reaction is people testing the region's 911 system on New Year's Eve just to see if it's working. "If we all tried 911 to see if was working, chances are it won't, it's not designed that way," Mr. Brousseau says.

On the whole, most people aren't worried about Y2K problems actually occurring, says Dr. Ester Cole, chair of the Psychology Foundation of Canada. Yet many, especially those who lived through the 1998 Ice Storm, are creating "comfort zones" -- just in case -- which may include storing extra food and other supplies or staying close to home on New Year's Eve.

"The question is what is a comfort zone and what is an over-reaction?"

And the news media, she says, will play a key role in conditioning how people will react to the approaching Y2K deadline.

Are, for example, reports of any last-minute and exaggerated preparations by individuals "going to be reported in a measured, proportionate way? Or are those messages going to escalate (a sense of panic) the closer we come to," Dec. 31?

"If you really have a disproportionate style of frenzied (reporting), people are going to say, 'well, to be on the safe side, if I thought that I'm going to buy another 10 per cent (extra groceries),' suddenly it becomes, 'maybe I should really be on the safe side and buy another 40 or 50 per cent'.

"Of course, it's a Catch-22, because if you go into a supermarket and you see empty shelves and you see people suddenly overloading their carts, you say to yourself, 'well, I'm not exactly sure that I am going to be wise not to join the crowd."

"It's incumbent upon all of us to remind ourselves not to over-react or under react, to find a balance."

Concludes Mr. Markovsky: "There are people who are panicking already (the Y2K survivalists). There's kind of a graduation from them down to people at the other end of the spectrum who could care less. The question is how far into that distribution will the panic spread?

"Most people are in the middle somewhere and I don't think it will reach the middle, I don't think that majority of people are going to over-react."



-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), December 07, 1999

Answers

"...the news media, she says, will play a key role in conditioning how people will react to the approaching Y2K deadline."

They already have.

Sad.

Encouragement of "Prudent preparation" beginning last spring, would have been the "wiser" dot gov strategy.

C'est-ce la vie.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.


Wow! You're brilliant beanfang! There was a lot of information about people who are actually panicking now in that article!

-- Forget it (no@way.com), December 07, 1999.

That was the title of the article, bonehead. Now apologize to Homer and go to your room until you can play nice.

R.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), December 07, 1999.


forget it

It was the actual title of the article, meathead.

-- _ (_@_._), December 07, 1999.


Thanks Homer!

What a hopeless mess... couple this article with what the Toronto Sun had to say this morning (hoarders could be arrested under martial law) but DON'T DEFINE HOW TO PREPARE (other than a 3-day winter storm) and you have a screw-up of colossal magnitude!!!

Makes me sick to have a gov't like that.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 07, 1999.



Concludes Mr. Markovsky: "There are people who are panicking already (the Y2K survivalists)."

Who's panicking? Are you panicking because you have a year's worth of slowly accumulated preps stored up? Not me.

"Most people are in the middle somewhere and I don't think it (panic) will reach the middle, I don't think that majority of people are going to over-react."

Isn't it the middle-roaders who also practically kill each other over a $99 TV at Walmart? Wait till they haven't had a meal for a day, or ten.

-- Powder (powder@keg.com), December 07, 1999.


"I don't think that majority of people are going to over-react."

Well, let's see. If you never had more than 3 days' food in the house, and your panicky neighbors have cleaned out the store shelves for the last week, and you're down at the store trying to buy enough for dinner, how hard are you going to push to get to the food? I mean, in that position, what exactly constitutes an over-reaction?

Survivalists are about the least panicky people I've ever seen. I'd sure rather worry about them than about the DGIs, because as soon as shopping becomes in any way irritating, those darn survivalists just stay home and eat what they have.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), December 07, 1999.


Roland:

The poster named Forget It obviously has reading comprehension difficulties. He/She may lack the ability to understand your valid criticism.

-- Dolly Llama (DollyLlama@Tibet.com), December 07, 1999.


What a bizarre article. Read it carefully. It's full of absurd statements. This especially: "If you are concerned and we haven't been able to reassure you, there's nothing wrong with getting ready for an emergency." Now why on earth would you be listening to anyone who has so far NOT been able to reassure you? And, if an emergency is possible, why would one even consider NOT get ready for it?

Maybe those chemtrails are turning everyone's brains to mush.

-- nothing scarier than (some@folks.reassurances), December 07, 1999.


I LOVE this article. The headline SCREAMS panic, though no evidence of it is sighted in the article, then we read:

And the news media, she says, will play a key role in conditioning how people will react to the approaching Y2K deadline.

Are, for example, reports of any last-minute and exaggerated preparations by individuals "going to be reported in a measured, proportionate way? Or are those messages going to escalate (a sense of panic) the closer we come to," Dec. 31?

Well.... duh... I guess Ian MacLeod (the idiot author) answered his own question, now didn't he?

But if, perhaps, panic is started, in addition to the contribution from idiot articles like this, it might just be because of news of local, state, and federal gov't preparations like: underground bunkers, months of stored food, generators, Nat. Guard on hand, bullet-proof vests and tanks.. yada yada yada...

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), December 07, 1999.



The governments are in a tight spot: prevent bank runs, grocery store stripping and panic v. ignoring the whole thing. Here in the Detroit area the local water utility is starting radio ads with an emphasis on the "three day storm" thing. They seem to want people to get at least a little ready, but the voice is deep and calm, the message is "no problems are expected, but..."

Yes, the survivalists are panicking. Sad. The only ones that are just about finished (because they/we knew all along the s would hit the fan by 12/28) and are now sitting back and tweaking the final preps. Yep, its all our fault.

Home Depot has a nice Kero-Sun heater and plenty of kerosene available... Must be us panickers that are making them do that.

-- Gary S. (garys_2k@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.


Panicking survivalist is a contradiction in terms.

The long time survivalists have been prepared all along because Y2K is just one scenario out of a possible many they are concerned with. Each individual must determine for themselves what is probable. I know one individual who's been prepared for varous nuclear scenarios for years who thinks the entire Y2K thing is a non-starter. We each make our own judgements as to what's likely to happen.

The people who became survivalists because of Y2K and are serious about it pretty well finished up their mission-critical (oh that term) preps before July 1st. It's the johnny-come-latelys who may present a problem. With more than a year to see it coming the logistical system should be prepared for just about anything that's going to happen but you can always count on denial, stupidity, negligence and carelessness to bollix up anything.

The media is creating much of the problem with their constant telling folks not to panic. Sooner or later quite a few folks are going to start wondering if maybe they should be concerned...

.........Alan.

The Prudent Food Storage FAQ, v3.5

http://www.providenceco-op.com

-- A.T. Hagan (athagan@sprintmail.com), December 07, 1999.


How does that rhyme go? "All the kings horses and all the kings men, couldn't put humpty dumpty back together again"

The government has shat upon it's citizens and there ain't no turning back. Broken in less than 30 days.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), December 07, 1999.


[Concludes Mr. Markovsky: "There are people who are panicking already (the Y2K survivalists). ]

[RANT ON]

This idiot Markovsky sounds like a Republican...must have an enemy so he demonizes those who prepared months ago. Got to demonize and punish those who are wisest, otherwise he'll be exposed as the fool he is.

People who will be emptying the shelves are the idiot Pollys, the same people this Markovsky lulled to sleep with "everything's okay" these last few months, instead of starting to tell them last year to begin stocking up.

Hey, Markovsky,...yeah you...stupid...I have something to teach you.

1) Y2K Survivalists were finished preparing months ago.

2) People are going to panic between December 26 - 31. The people who will be cleaning out the stores are YOUR TYPE...idiots...Pollys...fools...who listened to influential "Professors of Idiocy" like you telling them not to worry for the last year. Well, guess what, you were a fool then and you are a fool now for thinking people are not going to panic. You are an idiot now for saying Y2K survivalists will be the ones cleaning out the stores. WE ALREADY HAVE OUR SUPPLIES.

Markovsky, it's because of shortsighted fools such as yourself in positions of influence that this Y2K problem exists in the first place (2 digits won't matter...everything will be replaced before the year 2000.) Markovsky, the time has come to cleanse you and your kind from positions of public influence. You are morally corrupt.

[RANT OFF]

Still, I forgive you, Prof. Markovsky. Now go and say no more.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 07, 1999.


If one prepares as the government says and has about 3 days of food on hand, what happens if one needs food but goes into the markets 5-6 days prior to 1/00 and finds the shelves empty? There goes the 3 day supply they've stockpiled. What happens then if once the turnover takes place and they need that 3 day supply that they've had to use up in late December?

-- Rich (rubeliever@webtv.net), December 07, 1999.


Rich,

NO FAIR! You're thinking. You're NOT SUPPOSED TO THINK. People who THINK get DEMONIZED by people in positions of AUTHORITY.

STOP THINKING and you'll be just fine.

(sigh)

Maybe we deserve this.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 07, 1999.


The Canadian Press (CP) article picked up by our local rag said..."the federal government is prepared to invoke the Emergency Measures Act to deal with major millennium problems if it's needed"...Toronto Sun. Four key ministries Treasury, Foreign Affairs, Industry and Defence would help run the govt.

Under the Act people can be arrested for hoarding supplies (define hoarding, supplies and the - a la Clinton) - subject to fines and jail terms up to 5 years. Hey finally, we could be supported by the taxpayers instead of the other way around.

Just wondering - are those who claim that they must store a year's supply (Mormons) on religious grounds, exempt from this hoarding nonsense? Maybe claim religious discrimination - in Canada claiming discrimination of any kind usually always wins.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), December 07, 1999.


Hmmm...maybe I should pick up the batteries, water, and canned goods on the way TO the party, instead of on the way home...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 08, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ