Government liability for the external costs of earthquake prediction.

Huffman, James L. Earthquake Prediction: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction. Paris, UNESCO, 1984; 857-867

Central among the legal issues resulting from policy decisions is the liability of government of the external costs of an actual earthquake prediction, including costs resulting from physical dislocation, depressed property values, increased insurance premiums, more rigid building and safety standards, and personal mental stress. When an earthquake prediction is accurate, those costs are likely to be outweighed by the benefits of timely response. However, when a prediction is inaccurate, individuals and organizations are likely to seek redress, particularly if especially costly actions were mandated by government. This paper examines the policy implications of a broad range of alternative approaches to the distribution of costs, from total government assumption of liability to allowing the costs to be borne where they fall. Central to this assessment is an analysis of the historical doctrine of sovereign immunity and of the responses of different forms of government to varying cost distribution schemes. The author concludes by presenting a two-dimensional matrix of liability assignment options and policy concerns that can be used as a framework for evaluating the policy options available concerning earthquake prediction liability

earthquake/ prediction/ legislation-regulation/ liability/ intergovernmental/ economic impact

OK now lets rewrite that with a substitution....

Government liability for the external costs of Y2K prediction.

Central among the legal issues resulting from policy decisions is the liability of government of the external costs of Y2K prediction, including costs resulting from physical dislocation, depressed property values, increased insurance premiums, more rigid systems and safety standards, and personal mental stress. When a prediction is accurate, those costs are likely to be outweighed by the benefits of timely response. However, when a prediction is inaccurate, individuals and organizations are likely to seek redress, particularly if especially costly actions were mandated by government. This paper examines the policy implications of a broad range of alternative approaches to the distribution of costs, from total government assumption of liability to allowing the costs to be borne where they fall. Central to this assessment is an analysis of the historical doctrine of sovereign immunity and of the responses of different forms of government to varying cost distribution schemes. .. a two-dimensional matrix of liability assignment options and policy concerns that can be used as a framework for evaluating the policy options available concerning Y2K prediction liability

If I recall correctly doing nothing, or very little cost the Government least.... I hope they sleep well nights...

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), December 06, 1999