Ok, we're getting very close now. I've only been to this board for about three months now...It's too bad I found it so late.

I don't think I've seen specific Y2K related predictions on this board. If they're out there, they may be old.

Let's take a shot at new < 30 day to go predictions.

Here are mine:

As a result of Y2K:

Somewhere in the world, a nuclear incident will occur that will result in the release of radiation and the loss of life.

Somewhere in the world a chemical plant mishap will occur that will result in the loss of life.

Because of terrorist opportunism, somewhere in the U.S., a terrorist attack will occur, resulting in the loss of life.

A U.S. water system will be contaminated because of a system problem. It may result in serious sickness, depending on how long it takes for the water authority to recognize a problem.

At least one area of the U.S. will be without power for 7 days or more because of non-weather related problems.

There will be U.S. oil shortages by February, resluting in soaring prices and rationing.

Unemployment in the U.S. will surpass 10% during 2000

Somewhere in the U.S., traffic light systems will crash resulting in incredible traffic.

Somewhere in the U.S., rioting and looting will occur on the holiday weekend.

The National Guard will be deployed to keep the peace in at least 5 cities in the first 4 months of 2000.

GDP will experience negative growth in 2000.

At least 5 fortune 500 companies will file for bankruptcy protection by the end of 2000.

Trading will be suspended on the NYSE at least once between now and January 31.

"Flight Rationing" will be imposed by the FAA.

The transportation industry, in general, will experience tremendous economic loss during the first 6 months of 2000. (One of the bankruptcies mentioned above may come from this sector).

A major auto manufacturer will lay-off people because parts shortages will shut down manufaturing lines.

Incorrect and late payroll checks will become common for hundreds of thousands of people across the country.

A major government service (e.g. -medicare, unemployment, welfare, social security, etc.) will experience problems significant enough to cause civil unrest.

During January, international telecommunications will be a shadow of what it is today.

Between now and January 1, limitations on cash withdrawals from banks will become common.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop below 7,000 by March 31, 2000.

Print them off, and let's check them at the end of next year.

Anyone else up for specific Y2K predictions?

-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), December 06, 1999

Answers

Numero 1. if its minor it will be a royal pain in our collective rear end.

Numero 2. if its medium it will suck.

Numero 3. if its major it will suck big time.

These are my very in depth and technical predictions based on years of watching the government and corporations screw big things up. Remember Pearl Harbor it has always been FOF.

-- Squid (Itsdark@down.here), December 06, 1999.

Don't worry Duke, They've said they only need a few days to fix anything that goes wrong.

My view is that you're one of those 'glass half full' sorta people. I'm a bit more pessimistic myself. You've just described my version of bump in the road.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), December 06, 1999.

Duke

Good thoughts! Welcome to the board. As usual, the following is one man's opinion. I could be wrong. But after about 1,000 hours of study in Y2K, probably won't be far off. I am writing my list of forecasts, not finished, but for now I'd say there's 70% chance Clinton will declare martial law on Dec. 28 , 80% chance between Dec.28-Jan. 15. Political dissidents will disappear starting today. ( I am not one of those who hate government. I love this nation. I don't advocate violent overthrow of government). Many will end up dead or rotting in concentration camps. Yes, no kidding. National guards and Marines will be sent in to no more than 120 big cities. Many will be foreign troops and cops. There will be several major riots in big cities like New York city, L.A., West Oakland, Detroit Major trouble spots will be Jerusalem, Indonesia, India, Russia

2-3 nuclear accidents will occur in the Northern hemisphere including America. Many chemical plants will have problems, accidents. 70% chance of terrorist acts simultaneously in more than one US cities during January. 90% chance gas will be rationed. I would guess for telephone, there will be an average 8 days of no service nationwide. 80% chance of regional power outages lasting average of 7-12 days. Lots of rolling brownouts in other area but small chance of total down of the grid. 60% chance of a civil war, higher if they confiscate handguns. I would not be surprised if scores, even hundreds will die by April, 2000. Some will be frozen or starved to death.

How can I forget the banks? probably 80% chance of a run on several banks here and especially abroad. Many banks ,up to 5% here, may fail. 5% of our businesses here will fail. As to when the panic in buying supplies will occur. I think 10% chance by Dec. 12, 30% chance by the 19th, 50 chance by 26th , 70% chance by Dec.28. Certain TEOTWAWKI christians will be blamed . I expect the longest lines to be during January.

-- Watchman (watch@foryou.com), December 06, 1999.

Jeez-us. I was laughing at Squid's post, and agreed more or less with Will continue, then read watchman's. I think I need to give this board a day or two off.......

-- (cavscout@fix.net), December 06, 1999.

Duke, my predictions: in Jan.there will be a serious increase in polly suicides. During Feb,all chargecard holders who ran them all the way up are chagrined to find interest rates have climbed to 75% and they are retroactive. During Mar. those fundamentalists still alive will be amazed to discover that Jesus has come back and he is a mexican illegal truckdriver. Take a destitute programmer to supper will be the watchword for April. During May having worn out their welcomes with boring table talk,programmers will be assigned shelters and jobs shoveling sewer overflows. In early June the last living stockbroker will be found hiding in a cave in West Virgina.Late June Bill Gates will be killed by a pit bull fighting him for scraps in a refuse pile outside Boise. On July 4th The Presidential and Congressional bunkerdwellers will find the Emergency exit to the y2k bunker buried under 60 tons of small rocks left by pilgrams visiting the memorial to "Just In Time Inventories". August will bring an adopt a lawyer program at the local Humane Society,lack of takers will require mass mercy killings. In September The Peoples Republic will will declare a new national policy and reopen the Sung dynasty peopleburger resteraunts ,closed since 1650.In October communications will be restored betweem NY an DC and the waxed string will carry the first phrase "What Koskenin hath Wrought".In November,Rat hunting will replace Pokemon as the most popular pastime of American youth. In December ciggarettes will be the new Fed currency.and alien visitors,who have been living under ground since "47" will depart declaring the earth just too depressing for colonization.

-- Ole Nostreldummy (seeing clearly@thrutheglassdarkly.org), December 06, 1999.

Duke,

IMHO, we are currently operating in a "Bump In The Road" environment. Should any one of the events you listed materialize and be reported by the major media, the herd will panic. If the herd panics, it's over.

I predict between December 26 and December 31 store shelves all across the U.S. will be cleaned out. (This will happen sooner, should a major negative Y2K induced event take place.)

The recovery time for our Just In Time (JIT) system will be many months and that's without ANY major Y2K problems in the JIT system or other relevant systems within the U.S. and abroad, throughout January.

IMHO.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 06, 1999.

i have had predictions on this board and people just kind of laughed at it. i have made a personal y2k list if anyone wants to see they can email me. also, i also see the water contamination problem. the area i am seeing is very near detroit. i have been getting a very bad feeling about detroit, but cannot explain why. all i know is i would not want to be there. i do see an astronomical number of fires at year's end. i get the feeling there is going to be a blackout (media) that prevents people from knowing how bad a certain company is suffering. i feel a huge initiative to keep y2k chaos a secret. i feel like clinton will declare martial law in detroit. fema is going to be a very dangerous animal to a few cities. i feel like parts of atlanta are going up in flames. i would buy a couple of fire extinguishers if it were me. they are only about 12 dollars each. i also feel like their is a real possibility of going to war withopec nations and trying to find a "bad guy" to blame instead of the government. i think by february, things will look very different. get your cash and get it now. cash will be king.

-- mvester (astrofran@aol.com), December 06, 1999.

ole nostadummy...(sp?) very lucid and insightful!!! Try holding the skull up to the window for more direct illumination from full moonlight and tell us more!!! LOL!

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), December 06, 1999.

Prediction..the way my life is going...

1. The lights will go out in various places on New Years, but not at my house.

2. At least two nuclear power plants will have "incidents" but the one eight miles from me will chug along happily.

3. There will be rioting and martial law in cities far away from me. I'll watch them on CNN.

4. They'll expect me to show up for work Monday morning. :-(

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), December 06, 1999.

It's really pointless to make these kinds of predictions unless you have hard, factual evidence to back up each one. Without such backing they have no value, and there is no hard data available on Y2K and there won't be any until January.

Personally, I think things in 2000 are going to be a lot worse than the average person thinks, but that's just my general perception. I have no specific predictions whatsoever.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 06, 1999.

1).I predict people will start predicting. 2).Not much will happen except about 10% of the population will buy extra food and water on the last days of December.

3).By about Feburary things will seem OK and then small problems will start to grow ever larger.

4).By summer shortages will be apparent and people will start to adopt new methods of finding things or doing without. 5).The stock market will find new highs but based on growth in sectors that had y2k problems. 6).But for the most part people will continue and money will be made but a new way of doing things will begin.

-- anthony pope (y2k@hopingitsok.com), December 06, 1999.

Have to agree with most of those Duke, although I do see much more happening with embeddeds right away than I previously had thought. All the info coming out is not good. One question? What about politics? If Clinton can be have his fingers pried away from the door and out of the White House, who will come in?

If, we have elections, I think Mr. McCain is gonna get a good deal of the votes, we'll be looking for "heros" by that time. What do you think?

-- rumdoodles (rumdoodles@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999.

* Market Crash / Bank Runs 12/99
* Major Oil Problems 1/00
* Duke 1983 is a polly

actually, some very good posts, thanks all.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), December 06, 1999.

Most of the people on this forum will be dead in less than two months.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 06, 1999.

I'ts @ coming soon, the forum will be toasting bread over their candles,but becuse you have issued a self fulfilling prophecy,you are surely doomed, In the world of physic predictions the" smellar is the fellar!"and evil predictions will rebound on you ten fold! Best select a good funeral plan while you can.My spirit guide has assured me that the reaper is coming for you first,get your affairs in order.

-- grim reaper (Iam coming@soonforyou.com), December 06, 1999.

Hmmmm, some good input here. I do think these prognostications have some value. They, in my case, are based on 3 years, and over 200 hours of research and observation.

They are based on my training as an economist and political scientist.

They are based on the experiences of my day to day work with Fortune 500 companies struggling with the issues on a day to day basis.

They are also based on probabilities. (Y2K news wire did an excellent piece on the probabilities of system failures given integrated systems each having cetain failure probabilities).

They are real, specific and verifiable prognostications. Prognostications such as these are constantly used. For example, the GAO will project budget surpluses or trade balance information. They can be used as a benchmark as well as a means to determine contingency planning.

My prognostications or predictions are, I feel, High probability outcomes (over 90% probabilities).

I personally believe things will be worse, but the probabilities drop off. If you read between the lines, and project out the impact of the things I did predict, we are probably looking at a "7" based on the scale of seen elsewhere.

Does that make me a "Polly?"

I'd be surprised, my family and coworkers think I'm over the edge, and term me a "Y2K Fatalist."

I'd love to see some more specific predictions here on this board...What do y'all say.

Oh, and one more prediction: There will be NO Y2K-related commercial airliner crashes in the first week of January. After that, no guarantee as the ATC systems are repeatedly "fixed" and put on-line.

-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), December 06, 1999.

That should have read:

"3 years, and over 2,000 hours of research"

See what dropping a digit can do for you????

-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), December 06, 1999.

I must say that I'm surprised. With all the strong opinions on "both sides of the aisle", I thought there would be alot of interest in providing specific predictions.

Could it be that people aren't so opinionated when it comes to being asked thoughts on the specific impacts of Y2K????

Could it be the Polly's really believe there will be some disruptions, and are afraid to predict what they will be?

Even a "business as usual" is a prediction!

-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), December 06, 1999.

Most people are afraid to make specific predictions because such predictions make the possibilities much more tangible and make the danger all too real. That is when they realize that they have not prepared nearly enough and that it is now too late. They are much more comfortable speaking in generalities because it makes the situation seem much more remote and ambiguous. Unfortunately for them, this will not change the outcome.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 06, 1999.

Interesting observation, It's @, you may be right. But there are also some very high powered people on these boards. Can we get any specific predictions from Paula or Ed? I think we already know where James Whitley falls. ( I hope I got his name right) Point is, there are alot of very knowledgeable people here, and though I know nobody knows how it will come out, we can make educated and informed guesses.

-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), December 06, 1999.

"High powered" people are, no doubt, just as fearful as anyone else that what they predict will truly come to pass and that they are simply not prepared as they thought they were. It's easy to make predictions when disaster is several months away. When it's only a few weeks until TSHTF, they begin to truly fear the outcome. I wouldn't expect many specific predictions from them at this point. It's simply too late for most of them.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 07, 1999.

So, is it I'm not "high powered" enough to get my above question addressed? McCain, President? I'd prefer Alan Keyes, myself!

-- rumdoodles (rumdoodles@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.

Sorry, rumdoodles, didn't mean to ignore your question. So many things to post, so little time!

: )

I'm thinking that y2k will throw so much into chaos, it's impossible to forcast the voter's reactions.

As things are now, with the economy good, etc., the Dems would be a shoo-in (probably Gore, but Bradley is making good strides in NH.

But I see a "y2k backlash", and can see the Dems being blamed, but also politics as usual being blamed. Openning for the reform party? I doubt it, but probably ac change to republican.

I figure McCain for the nomination, Junior just won't have what it takes (other than money), and Keyes, as a black man won't be anle to carry enough of the vote, although he articulates positios probably better than anyone out there right now.

-- Duke1983 (Duke1983@aol.com), December 07, 1999.

Thank you Mr. Duke, busy is something I understand!;)

The only thing I disagree with is the Dems having a chance even if things stayed the way they are including the economy. Of course I've underestimated the stupidity of the Republican party before, they could even lose this one, by sticking with Junior!

-- rumdoodles (rumdoodles@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.