Lately, I find myself pondering my dear DGI family members who live in other states, and of how I will miss them in the future if things turn down and nasty. Wondering what I would say to them in a final letter...to let them know my care and love. Maybe an " epistle from the grave" perhaps to be found at a later date? Or instead of that, a personal "testament" to be mailed NOW?

Then, in embarrassment (and in waking from my reverie), I say to myself, "How silly! We will ALL survive these times! Don't be such a gloomy person, Mo!" But later, the thought returns. "Write those letters, now!" (I think to myself, "Even IF nothing remiss happens after the rollover, they'd have that paper telling them of your devotion and feelings of love to keep close to their hearts.")

Say what? Do any of you feel these same things? Or am I beyond hope?

-- Mo (Maureen@home.con), December 05, 1999

Answers

This is a great piece to send to those who are aware but un-moved.

be prepared: Michael Hyatt

What if you're wrong about Y2K?

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last April, Art Welling wrote a column (still posted on my website) titled, "Are You Prepared to Be Wrong About Y2K?" The essay raised an interesting point: what will happen if your personal predictions about the Millennium Bug turn out to be completely wrong?

Art described the extreme survivalist scenario, where someone's utter fear of Y2K prompts him to quit his job, cash out his pension to buy a small cabin in the woods in "North Jabip," tell family members to join up or die, and hunker down with an assault rifle and 300 cases of military rations.

Obviously, this person would have a hard time returning to his previous way of life if his predictions about Y2K are wrong. If computer disruptions are minimal and the economy continues to hum along, this fellow pretty much would have to start over. He is not very prepared to be wrong.

(By the way, don't get the impression that I am against relocating to a safer, more self-sufficient locale. One of the chapters in my book, The Y2K Personal Survival Guide, is titled, "Evaluate Your Current Location." I believe everyone should take whatever action they truly think is most prudent. Just be aware that it's hard to turn back after investing every last nickel to move to a rustic bunker atop a remote mountain.)

Art also described the person who is so certain nothing bad will happen, he doesn't "bother to stock up on anything." Even minor disruptions - especially to utilities or basic services - will create a crisis for this guy and his family. He, too, is not prepared to be wrong.

Now that we are mere weeks away from New Year's Day, it is a good time to revisit Art's original question. Are you prepared to be wrong about Y2K?

Instead of the extreme cases, let's look at a couple of more typical situations. In one scenario, a man decides it would be wise to protect his family from possible Y2K disruptions. He purchases a wood stove, kerosene lanterns, and an electrical generator. He also stocks up a decent supply of firewood, fuel, medical supplies, clean water, and dehydrated food.

There is a cost incurred in making these preparations - in time, effort, and money. Most likely, this man had to dip into his savings or forego the annual family vacation. However, if serious computer disruptions occur, he and his family are ready to be self-sufficient for a number of weeks, perhaps even months.

But what happens if his prediction about Y2K turns out to be wrong and computer-related problems are minimal in the Year 2000? Well, he consumes the food, water, firewood, and fuel during the first half of the year. (Maybe his reduced grocery and heating bills will allow him to rebuild his savings account more quickly.) The man's electrical generator and kerosene lanterns will collect dust in the garage, although they could come in handy during the next storm-related power outage.

Yes, the man in this scenario has paid a price for being wrong about Y2K. His savings account is smaller, he missed the opportunity for a nice vacation, and he now owns some appliances he otherwise would not have purchased. But the price is not devastating. It does not ruin his standard of living and his way of life. This man is prepared to be wrong about Y2K.

Now let's look at another scenario. A different person follows the federal government's recommendations to the letter: he stocks up on exactly three days worth of non-perishable food, bottled water, and flashlight batteries. He collects paper copies of all his bank account records, withdraws a small amount of cash from an ATM, and makes sure his car's gas tank is at least half full.

This guy has heard government and business leaders - from President Clinton down to the local mayor, and from the head of General Motors down to the owner of the corner deli - insist over and over again that Y2K problems will be minimal or non-existent in the United States. He truly believes, as he's been told countless times, that the only risk about Y2K is if people "panic" and hoard supplies.

When Jan. 1 finally arrives, let's suppose this man's community is hit by an unexpected power failure. Don't forget: even the most optimistic spokesmen concede that localized utility disruptions are possible. Sen. Robert Bennett, chairman of the U.S. Senate's special Y2K committee, with only 100 days to go until the new year, that a prolonged nationwide power grid collapse is virtually impossible because of the Y2K repair efforts by the nation's 250 bulk power producers. (Note the word prolonged. Is the senator saying a short-term nationwide power grid collapse could happen? Just curious.) However, Bennett did admit that local and regional outages are possible because smaller firms are lagging in Y2K repair work.

The man in our scenario hears on a transistor radio that three counties are in the dark, while the rest of the state has electricity. A power company spokesman explains that crews are working on the problem and power will be restored as soon as possible.

"Well, we're ready for this," the man tells his family as they shuffle down the stairs on New Year's morning. "We have our three-day supply of food and water and batteries."

As the man sits at his kitchen table wishing his coffee maker ran on batteries and wondering if the power will be on in time to watch football games on TV, he notices that it is getting awfully chilly in the house. Then a thought hits him: No electricity means . no furnace!

He looks out the window at the thermometer on the porch. It's only 18 degrees outside. "Hey!" he says to his wife, "They never said anything about stocking up three days worth of heat. What are we going to do if the lights stay off all day?"

Just imagine what would happen if the lights stayed off, not only all that day, but for three days, five days, or even 10 days. It would be a full-fledged crisis. The family would have to abandon their house, leaving it vulnerable to frozen and burst pipes, and maybe even opportunistic looters.

They would have to live in an emergency shelter hastily set up in the high school gymnasium. If problems existed with other utilities and services - water and sewer, telecommunications, transportation - the entire community would be a disaster area.

In this scenario, the man and his family would be in quite a mess - a mess that could have been completely avoided if he had taken steps to be self-sufficient for a number of weeks or months. He is definitely not prepared to be wrong about Y2K.

As I've said and written many times during the past couple of years, Y2K is a risk management situation, similar to deciding how much insurance to own. No one knows for sure what will happen when the new century arrives, therefore we must assess the risks as best we can and plan accordingly. While assessing the risks and making your plans, please ask yourself: "Am I prepared to be wrong about Y2K?"

------------------------------------------------------------------------

)1999 Michael S. Hyatt

-- UR2Blame (upower@jnb.net), December 05, 1999.

Howdy all,

I'm still out here trying to convince people that they need to prepare for an uncertain future and only having so-so success, but as I have said on this forum before, every liter of water and every battery put aside is going to improve someone's lifestyle in case of problems.

I still have my Why You Should Prepare site up. It's a collection of articles that I hope will convince people that they should take some action to protect themselves.

Feel free to visit or direct the friends and relatives there.

Boy, I am tired of this whole thing.

Best regards,

-- William in Dallas (bcheek@onramp.net), December 05, 1999.

Obviously, I am still hyperlink challenged. However, it does work. Click anywhere!

Best again,

-- William in Dallas (bcheek@onramp.new), December 05, 1999.

Say Question? About those shelters if over 70% of the people did not prepare just tell me where and how shelters are going to be available for that many.

Question? If no water how many portapoties is that?

Lets see there are how many in this country. Forgive me if I am off by a few million but lets say a conservative 50 million now lets see that 70% is 35 million people. Ok guys do we have one portapotie for every 20 to 30 people? That boils down to about 12 million portapoties.

If every school, church etc was to turn into a shelter we still couldn't house that many. And even if we could by any miracle what about the spread of disease such as TB which is on the rise not to mention flu, viruses etc. The smell alone would take you away without the water to wash or the facilities.

Get real here you are either ready or be among the brave to even consider communal living on this level.

What I think will happen with shelters is triage. Those with the most risk those who are on oxygen, those with special medical needs infants and small children etc.

That is all we could handle in reality.

Sobering thought

-- Susan Barrett (sue59@bellsouth.net), December 05, 1999.

How to deal with DGI family members through the holidays: SUBTITLE: How to manipulate your Catholic mother.

1. When they ask what you want for X-mas, say you want then to spend what they would have on you instead on some extra pet food and water, so that if there are any problems with distribution then at least the animals won't have to go without.

2. If they push for your gift list, say things like toiletries, a chain saw (anything survival).

3. Send them all for X-mas gift baskets from Hickory Farms.

Really, this is working w/my Catholic mom who yesterday agreed to my phase 1, heh. Seeds for phase 2 were planted, and that was when she agreed to phase 1. Naughty naughty.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 05, 1999.

Many of us feel as you do, Mo. If it make you feel better to write the letters, then by all means write them. Keep in mind, however, that it won't change the fact that your DGI family members will most likely be dead in a few months and will not be able to read them. If the letters help you through this realization and act as a "final farewell" to them then it could be a great help in severing ties with them so that you can prepare without distraction. Above all, keep focused on what you need to do to allow you and any children you have to survive.

-- (its@coming.soon), December 05, 1999.

I'm in the process of writing letters to my loved ones. I'm sharing with each a memory I have of them that's special to me. I thank them for enriching my life and bringing gladness to my spirit. I tell them that my current research leads me to believe that we are not yet out of the woods and ask them to please prepare for uncertain times. I enclose a little checklist of items I call "Things to Do Immediately". But the main thrust of the letter is that I just wanted to take a moment at this special time to tell them that I love and appreciate them, that they have been among my personal heroes. Makes me feel good, and lets me bring wonderful memories to mind. Go for it!

-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), December 05, 1999.

The essay by Art Welling is probably the single finest article I've read on the subject...

CLICK HERE

-- Dennis (djolson@cherco.net), December 05, 1999.

here's a pretty convincing start to bring them to sensible action:

Y2K's close; we're still not ready By WIlliam Ulrich 11/29/99 Industry association and government spokesmen have proclaimed the Y2K problem dead. People believe this because they ignored published status reports to the contrary, see no personal connection to the problem and listen to pundits while doing little research for themselves.

But when problems emerge, companies and governments will take the brunt of the criticism. Assessing the reality of the situation will allow organizations to respond to the public relations challenges ahead. Reality is different from what the media tell us.

In September, Cap Gemini America, an information technology consulting firm in New York, found that 44% of major companies wouldn't have their mission-critical systems compliant by January. A CIO magazine poll found that 81% of large companies weren't yet finished and that half the companies surveyed had no contingency plans. A National Federation of Independent Business study found that 40% of small businesses had done nothing about Y2K.

Where progress has been made, work completed to date remains in question. According to independent validation and verification (IV&V) studies by SEEC Inc. in Pittsburgh, the average mainframe or midrange system contains 510 date-related errors after remediation. A second study in February by Reasoning Inc. in Mountain View, Calif., found between 100 and 1,000 bugs in similar samplings. An unrelated study by SriSoft Corp. in Diamond Bar, Calif., in October discovered that testing catches 30% of Y2K bugs, while IV&V uncovers another 40% to 45%. This leaves 25% of the remaining bugs in a best-case scenario.

Statistics drawn from government hearings and Web sites paint a more detailed picture. Only 13.5% of small and midsize chemical and petroleum firms have completed Y2K preparations. The Food and Drug Administration said 4,053 high-risk biomedical devices remain noncompliant. More than half of all health care providers won't be ready. And 70% of schools are unprepared.

According to calculations found in a report by researcher Warren Bone at New York-based Westergaard.com Inc.'s Web site (www.wbn.com/ y2ktimebomb/), only 75% of federal mission-critical systems will be finished by January, and the status of nonmission-critical systems remains unclear. Other reports found 13 states at risk for failures in federal benefit programs, 25% of U.S. counties with no Y2K plan, 63% of 911 call centers unprepared and Medicare provider payments facing delays.

Even best-case scenarios are imperfect. The Social Security Administration (SSA) began year 2000 efforts in 1989. In July, according to the Information Systems Accounting & Information Management Division, SSA found 1,565 year 2000 errors in mission- critical systems. Only 44% of these had been fixed as of October. SSA is still checking data and finalizing contingency plans.

What does this mean to consumers? In statements made in early November to CBS News, the State Department inspector general said, "80 countries are at moderate to high risk, and there will be failures at every economic level, in every region of the world." Nick Gogerty, an analyst at London-based International Monitoring, predicted in October that Y2K would lead to $1.1 trillion in damages worldwide, not including those from litigation and insurance costs. These costs, along with many inconveniences, will affect us next year.

Why is the government telling us that most industries are 100% Y2K- compliant when bug-free systems are a myth? The answer is that the government and selected industries don't want people to panic. But when things go wrong, people will demand answers.

What can organizations do when problems strike? First, consider that 80% of your customers expect no year 2000 problems at all. Second, don't believe your own industry hype about 100% compliance. Third, be polite and let them know we are all in this together -- for the long haul.

Most important, when future large-scale challenges arise, consider your industry's posture. The unrealistic Y2K performance expectations set by industry associations are unachievable. Finally, see if any of those high-priced public relations directors want to work your customer hot line in January. They may learn something about manipulating perceptions about matters they barely understand.

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), December 05, 1999.

Mo,

If you love someone, tell them now. We should never put these things off. Life is fragile even without y2k.

I'm glad y2k gave you an opportunity to realize there are people that are special to you & you would like them to know it. You are truly blessed.

You could put letters in with Christmas Cards (you don't have to mention y2k or death ;-) then you can be at peace knowing that they know how special they are to you.

You are not alone, I was dealing with this earlier this year & as a result I have been extra vigilant in sending cards/letters for every occasion I could think of. I wanted my 'long distance' friends to know how often I think of them & that they have been close to my heart.

I have lost people in my life before I had a chance to tell them how much they influenced my life, how special they were to me & how much I loved them. Trust me, tell them now. Who does not want to hear that they are treasured? You have nothing to lose.

There are many things I have said & done simply because I had a heightened awareness that there may never be another opportunity. Even if it turnes out that I am WRONG about y2k, I know that taking advantage of all of these opportunities has been a very good thing, & I am thankful that I had the chance.

Hang in there & see you on the other side,

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999.

Keep it simple. "Sure, you aren't dumb enough to buy this Y2K rubbish. But 70% of Oprah viewers are worried, and 40% of Americans admit that they plan to stock, with 75% of them planning a month or more. It's irrelevant whether they're right or wrong, they're going to clean the shelves. Buy lots, and buy now before they do."

That's the most compelling wake up call I have come up with.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999.

I did my grieving for my DGI blood relatives months ago. Now, when I talk to them on the phone, it's like talking to a retarded person who has a terminal condition, but hasn't the brainpower to comprehend what is approaching.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), December 07, 1999.