Hi Folks,

I just returned from my friendly Costco (in California) where I'd been on my lunch hour to pick up a few more odds and ends.

I hadn't been to Costco for about 2 weeks, and noticed some changes this trip and wondered if anyone else had notice the same:

1. Two weeks ago, I purchase 25 lb. of rice for $5.49 per bag. Today, the cheapest bag of rice was over $8.00.

2. The pallet that conained Progresso chicken soup was virtually depleted. After I'd purchased some, there were only about 5 packs remaining. Usually, there is a full pallet.

3. Ditto for Campbell's chicken noodle soup.

4. Ditto for spam.

OK, you get the point. The store was busy, (due to Christmas?) but these aren't normal Xmas items.

Is it starting?????

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999

Answers

No, it's not starting, and won't until after Christmas, if then. The media has TOTALLY convinced the American public that Y2K will be a non-event, not worth worrying about at all.

-- Sleepy (sleepy@mediadrivel.com), December 03, 1999.

No it isn't starting, they just haven't received their shipment yet. Lucky's/Albertsons has tons of SPAM 3/$5.00, Progresso Soups, buy 1 get one free, pinto beans 2lb. bag, buy 1 get one free, 20 lbs. Comet Rice $5.69, vegetable oil .69 cents (Lucky's brand soy bean), Perfection spaghetti buy 1 get one free. Nothing is going to start until something actually happens to trigger the herd. The low inventory is only an indication that SOME people are doing something. All it takes is 20 customers to buy 20 bags of rice and it automatically becomes low inventory. Lucky's only had 3 20lb. sacks of rice on the shelf, so all it takes is just 3 customers to come and and that depletes their inventory until the next shipment.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), December 03, 1999.

Not only is it not starting, it won't. Even though more and more stories are starting to surface that basically say "there are going to be many problems."

It's all falling on deaf ears. I call it Pokemon Syndrome.

-- Paul L. Hepperla (paulhep@terracom.net), December 03, 1999.

Thanks guys for the insights. I guess you're right that "it" is not happening yet. It just struck me today the way the shelves looked today compred with 2 weeks ago, but this is probably just due to a few isolated GIs, and general demand. Maybe I've been on the Net too much...

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

The mass will all panic or follow the panic at the same time. There will be increasing numbers of PGI (possibly get it) and late starters that will start to stock up and will probably go crazy due to the callendar. There are always a few nervous sheeple who will start moving before the herd. I expect this will be a regional phenomenum, but expect to see mini runs in area's that are replenished a couple of times before the big event.

My take.

-- squid (Itsdark@down.here), December 03, 1999.

To No Polly, I was just contemplating a trip to Costco in Ventura County this afternoon. Which Costco did you encounter the higher price and shortages? I'll check our the one here and report back.

-- Linda (lindasue1@earthlink.net), December 03, 1999.

Yes, it is too starting. Stocking up is now an open topic of conversation in the Costco aisles, stranger to stranger. My wife and I talked it over, and decided that we've done our last shopping. Time to leave it for the shopple.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), December 03, 1999.

No Polly,

No signs of any real stockpiling going on in Chicagoland. I was at the Costco the other night in Oakbrook, Illinois and they had everything in full supply, including generators. I didn't see anyone even lookin 'em over.

As I was standing in line, I became aware of how strange my cart must have looked. Big 'ol bags of rice, canned tomatoes, canned fruits, bleach bottles, fire extinguisher, well you get it. The rest of the folks had Christmas ornaments, candy and frozen pizzas.

That's fine with me though. Gives me more time to get "stuff"

I did notice that at Menards, which is a chain of Home improvement stores, their buyers (not the shoppers) went nuts on firewood, lanterns, kerosene heaters, battery and flashlight displays, and had 'em stacked to the ceiling. I only saw one other guy looking over the woodstoves. We nodded to each other and kept on 'a shoppin.

-- Dale (info@spicreative.com), December 03, 1999.

Call me paranoid, but I'd rather not say any more than Central California.

They had 25# pinto beans for $6.49 (approx.) which was up from the $5.00 range. It was just striking in general that the store had lots of "stuff," but was low overall in the staples...

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

2 weeks ago I went to Costco in the Pasco,Wa. area. Almost everything that you can store was more expensive. Rice,beans, flour, and sugar have gone up considerably since last July. The winner of price increase for me is bleach. It has doubled in price in the last year. I didn't see any huge gaps in anything though. Maybe the stores are raising prices on purpose to keep people from cleaning them out all at once-who knows?

-- morgan (bitbybit@eoni.com), December 03, 1999.

Yes, it is starting. Maybe not like many of us predicted, however our sales are double what they were last month, and last month was double what they were in October.

Many of the people who are buying now have been planning to do so for some time, they have just waited to almost the last minute. The people who are buying now are definately not people who are just GI for the first time.

I think that by the 15th many of the DGI will start to GI because of press reports that are certain to start coming out. The real panic - the kind that we all wanted to avoid by prepping early will start the weekend before Christmas and will escalate daily until the shortages begin. Then...watch out!

I may be wrong, but there's my 2 cents.

-- Mark (info@watertanks.com), December 03, 1999.

Dale, I was at the Oakbrook Costco last Wednesday looking for people who were "GI's." No obvious signs.

Since I am already 99% prepared, I just wondered around the aisles with delicious Kirkland roasted Chicken, frozen desserts, and some toys for Christmas in my cart. In these late days, it's tough to tell who is GI.

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.com), December 03, 1999.

And the Sam's in Hodgkins has pokemon FLIP cards. 4 packs for about 8 bucks. For the kids, this may be the last happy Christmas for a long time.

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.anon), December 03, 1999.

I predict that at 6:00 PM on Dec 31 some folks on this board will predict the mania to start later that evening.

-- (nostadoomus@sam'scostco.club), December 03, 1999.

I was at the store today snooping and watching for shortages and price spikes, and I did see people "preparing." They haven't a clue. The hottest item were gallons of milk.

No Polly, I just sent Gary North an e-mail requesting a new forum at his site for reporting price spikes and shortages at ones local store. If he is interested in the forum I hope you'll join.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), December 03, 1999.

No Polly --

Don't go to CostCo, but did go to Sam's Club. Normally, they have TP in the back of the store, on pallets, stacked to the ceiling, with between 3 to 6 different brands, usually in 24 or 30 packs.

This week, however, there were 2 (two), count 'em, 2 pallets, about half-full, of an off-brand I'd not seen in there before, one pallet 15 packs, the other pallet with 24 packs. The 24 pack pallet was only about 1/3 full. Kind of low on rice too.

Other than that, everything looked normal.

-- just another (another@engineer.com), December 03, 1999.

No mania, but noticeable changes in Hampton Roads, VA. For the last 2 weeks I've had no trouble spotting bargains on long-term storables because these items are located deep in the holes on the shelves. You know, the shelf looks bare, but you bend over and spot that there are still 5 cans of pork-n-beans at 4/$1 or three cans of the tomatoes 3/99cents (actual quantity in my ex.). A month ago I picked up some bags of dry peas, and they had been sitting there so long that there were more nasty bugs in them then peas (Wally World)!! ugh.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 03, 1999.

Chowbabe, Thanks for the suggestion to Gary North. Let me know if he starts such a forum (my e-mail listed actually works!)

As things develop, I'm sure there will be more threads similar to the one I started today.

I have most preps done, but am always on the lookout for bargains just to fill in any gaps or to be more prepared.

Ciao

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

nopolly, what you noticed with the rice is exactly what happened to me when I first jolted into the spice hikes. It was at one store, and now I am watching it trickle across county lines, manufacturers, and chains.

If one more person or one more chain can be spotted with that rice price spike then we know the next "section" in actual shortage. I'd imagine the price of that rice will sky rocket. It's what I saw with the spices. Two jars of dried onion, one minced already at the 9.99 price and the chopped getting there at 6.47. Garlic powder, cloves, vanilla, and some others are all in the same effect.

The shipments to the BVI have been stopped now due to shortages of flour, milk and produce, so one thing to keep an eye on is bread. That is what I was snooping today. So far okay, but I did notice one lone flavor of a popular cake mix sitting at twice the price of its others.

The price fixing on toothpaste had been broken. One had competitive choices again. Which leads me to another subject, and another reason why I hope we can have the "Reporting from your local store" forum, and that is possible and potential gouging. One companies toothpastes in crises should not raise ALL the prices.

I'm not seeing bottled Classic Coke anywhere. It had vanished from stores but a K-Mart had a supply for a display, the people grabbed em, and the last I saw only a few existed in the entire store. (Which are probably gone now.)

I'm watching the prices of dry dog and cat food. Something does seem to be churning in that section of the stores. The one brand I buy for dogs jumped a dollar. A dollar is quite a price hike. I suspect trouble is brewing.

Yet another reason why I hope to get a group going reporting from their stores is I think we're so deeply into the Y2K experience now, we are boats that have launched, news will be eye witness accounts, and frankly what one sees in the grocery store, at the gas pumps ecetera. I don't think at this stage AP or Reuters is going to do one a whole lot of good.

I'll let you know if Gary North is game for the forum. I'll also report it on the awareness forum so others interested can join.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), December 03, 1999.

I was at Safeway today in Santa Cruz County (Northern CA)and it appeared to be well stocked. I did not see any obvious shortages. There were even the usual amount of Club card specials. Plenty of basics, plenty of water. No unusual price spikes, but I am not an expert on watching the prices.

Washington Mutual (relatively new owner of Home Savings and Great Western-two CA headquartered chains) is still giving out standard ATM withdrawals and smaller bills with no questions asked.

Gas at cheaper stations is even $1.39 a gallon which is pretty good for us.

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

No Polly, I did go to Costco in Ventura County this afternoon, and checked things out. I did get an extra 25 lbs of rice for $5.49. There were plenty of Progresso soups and Campbell soups. I think stock may vary from one Costco to another, but I think prices would remain the same. I spent some time just observing what people were buying, and I can definitely say that they weren't preparing. It was the usual shopping. One thing that did surprise me though was that the store wasn't crowded at all. I didn't even have to wait in line to check out.... there wasn't any lines! I found that surprising for Costco, on a Friday afternoon in December, just three weeks before Christmas.

-- Linda (lindasue1@earthlink.net), December 03, 1999.

Just to chime in, I went to the Costco in Medford,Oregon. No shortages noticed, but since we've already got all the staples, we didn't check prices. We were on a vitamin / battery / misc expensive stuff run.

HOWEVER, overheard two conversations. The first was by the generators (20+ in stock), an older gentleman and his wife were nervously joking about buying one. Didn't know what to do. I talked to them briefly - apparently she needs AC for a medical thingie. I told him that it was good insurance to get an inexpensive generator (these were around $600 I believe). Also told him to get a 55 gallon drum of gasoline. He thought 5 gals would be sufficient. Whatever.

Second conversation was at checkout counter. Someone remarked on our large med / vitamin purchases. ($200 including toothpaste, brushes, listerine, etc.), and asked if we had extended family, Y2k, or something. I said "or something".

All anecdotal, but fascinating to me, anyway.

Jolly

-- Jollyprez (jolly@prez.com), December 04, 1999.