What level of disruptions do you expect now? (on a 0-10 scale?)

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Ok, everyone, I'm just trying to see where everyone now stands on their opinions of y2k disruptions. I'm still staying at 7-10. BTW, a 0 is a non-event, 1 is the .gov BITR, a 5 would be a mild recession, 8 is the great depression, 10 is TEOTWAWKI. Where do you stand?

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 03, 1999

Answers

After seeing a graphic of the grids someone posted I'd say we're in for a pretty ferocious ride.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), December 03, 1999.

10. TEOTWAWKI and before the millenium turns! (2000-2999 definition)

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

See the thread below on this topic. Link

-- RPGman (tripix@olypen.com), December 03, 1999.

What comes after 10?

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), December 03, 1999.

Who know what to expect and who cares?The real question seems to be for what level of disruption are you prepaired?Flint expects a bump in the road but by his account he's prepaired for much worse.

-- zoobire (zoobiezoonb@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.


Crono:

Got to go with a 7, maybe an 8. Anything past a 3 is really gonna suck.

-- Familyman (prepare@home.com), December 03, 1999.


6-7 no major disaters, but the economy (and the naysayers) will be "shocked" by supply disruptions and a crashing of productivity

-- charlie h (choke@bloomberg.com), December 03, 1999.

Science officer's report: Insufficient data to draw a meaningful conclusion, Captain. Further scanning of the phenomenon is necessary.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.

oops i typed my email address incorrectly

-- charlie h (choke@bloomberg.net), December 03, 1999.

Everyone, please give me your best guesses! BTW, I'm preparing for a 9, if it goes higher than that, I'll probably die... I also think we might have infomagic... a chance for it... What do you think?

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 03, 1999.


A 2 to 3.....

Okay, more specifically.......A 2.62784563 +- .0005%

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 03, 1999.


Prepped for a 9, hoping it's a 0, expecting between 2 and 10.

IOW - No one knows for sure what'll happen...

-- Powder (powder@keg.com), December 03, 1999.


Global Depression - I think that means an 8.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

A 4 to 5 at worst, but thats because I am taking corporate reports and Kosky as telling truth for the most part. If they are in fact lying, and some part of it has got to be lies then bump me up to a 6.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), December 03, 1999.

0-2, depending on the impact of the single factor I still can't get a good number on.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.


Crono: I have learned from many years of experience that the general consensus is usually wrong when it's dealing with social/political/economic matters. As I watch the increasing general consensus of the public discount Y2K as a trivial event, it makes me increasingly alarmed about Y2K. I'm ordering more preparation supplies this morning and I had thought I was through prepping.

I think Y2K will be at least an 8 on your scale by the end of next year.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 03, 1999.


I have been an 8 but I have this very bad feeling it could be worse. Recent posts about U.S. telephones and electricity have given me a bad case of the jitters.

-- cgbg jr (cgbgjr@webtv.net), December 03, 1999.

Actually, if Paul Davis thinks Y2K will be only a 2, then I'm quite sure it'll be at least an 8, considering the source.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 03, 1999.

-1. Absolutely nothing is going to happen.

-- bs (bs@bs.com), December 03, 1999.

IMHO,

We are currently operating in a 2 environment.

Reference: http://www.yourdon.com/books/HumptyDumptyY2K/CH02.html

NOTE: My comments in [].

Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered within 6 months. Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover. [Already experienced a 10% correction in the stock market within the last two months (due to Y2K fears IMHO) but have recovered nicely. Look for this scenario again, shortly.]

A few supply chain issues A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas. [Hershey's comes to mind. Many more examples exist.]

Air traffic slowdown due to consumer caution. [New Year's flights already cancelled or planning on cancelling around the globe.]

Y2K jokes in late night talk shows trigger an inadvertent panic or shortage. [New orders for generators and wood stoves can't be filled by manufacturers until after Y2k due to overwhelming existing orders. Not caused by any single comment from DL or JL, but the end result remains the same. Look for more and more "speciality" or Y2K specific items to become "back ordered, can't deliver until AFTER January 2000." NOTE: John and Jane Q. Public have no experience with seeing "out of stock" signs on "necessity" items when he/she goes "hunting" for food and water at the local food farm (grocery store).]

At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems. [The House of Representatives has already prepared us for this with a list of 16 state run programs not expected to be "compliant" by January 2000. Add in the IRS here, for good measure. Many examples of state government "glitches" already exist, although to their credit, they haven't been show stoppers, to date.]

End of [].

A few additional comments:

From December 26, 1999 to December 31, 1999 (six days), I am predicting store shelves throughout the United States will be completely emptied. Even if Y2K is a dud, it will take months to resupply everything to its current level of availability. It won't be because we "doomers" panicked. We purchased when supplies were overflowing store shelves. It will be because the Pollies panicked. When this happens, it will be the beginning of the TEOTWAWKI. From a 2 it escellates quickly to a 10. No in-between. And this is without the U.S. suffering ANY major Y2K related problems.

To speed up the rush to self-destruction, add in a couple of "unexplained" long term power outages between now and December 31, or an increase in "suspicious" accidents such as the recent train wreck caused by "faulty switches".

As far as any major Post Y2K problems, well...that's like piling on.

The their credit, the herd survives nicely as long as the corporate and government "shepards" are able to maintain telling them what to think and how to feel while feeding and watering them (with a little time off for recreation thrown in every now and then.) But what happens to the herd when the brainwashing propaganda can't be broadcast 24/7 due to power/communications failures and the food and water supply line jolts to a halt? They immediately have to start thinking for themselves! YIKES! They have no experience doing this! The shepards haven't prepared them for this! WHERE ARE THE SHEPARDS??? TELL ME WHAT TO DO!!!

Outcome: UNKNOWN.

IMHO.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 03, 1999.


As noted above, I too believe the curve accelerates in the center region of the scale. How fast, no one is certain.

With the misinformation and deception being desperately spewed from the mouths of our media and gov't, a 10 very well may occur. But remember, afterward what forms may be profound, unexpected and possibly beautiful. Out of chaos births order (hopefully, not a gov't-based order). Balance is a natural tendency.

...still hoping for low mark on the scale that could create a general "awakening."

-- bell curve (roller@coaster.net), December 03, 1999.


infomagic, baby!The de-evolutionary spiral!!!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.

Beats me! I can't give a rating, because I believe Y2K may be a BITR for some, and perhaps catastrophic for others, depending on where you work, where you live etc. etc. The company my husband works for (oilfield maintenance & supply) has done NO remediation, NO checking with suppliers, NO contingency plans. The company has been very profitable in the past - should be interesting! Also, the owners are going to Las Vegas for New Years. My husband (a mechanic) is on call for New Years. Also, my husband says their computers are screwed up even without worrying about Y2K. But they do keep paper ( not just back-up disks) records on everything. I sometimes wonder if SME's are that much at risk, as any small business owners in my area that I have talked to still maintain everything on paper. (I am referring to their computer systems and not taking into account the availability of their suppliers). Anyway, I'm still as mixed up on this issue as I was a year ago. BUT I am prepared, just in case.

-- Val (vjones@cableestevan.com), December 03, 1999.

Val, How can you wonder whether SME's might squeak through ? Sure they can stock pile both raw materials/ supplies but at the end of the day are still dependant on the telephone,power,water& delivery services to operate.There is no way any business can continue to run if any one of these goes out indefinately.I haven't mention losing customers either.

Crono. Unchanged 8 from last year.

-- Chris (Back@home.comm), December 03, 1999.


Val, I think you have hit it exactly when you said "I believe Y2K may be a BITR for some, and perhaps catastrophic for others, depending on where you work, where you live etc. etc. "

Where I live and work, I expect a 0 to 1. In the larger cities in NZ it may get to be a 2 to 3. For rural USA it is looking like a 2 to 4, but for places like New York or LA, maybe a 7 to 9.

Overall lets say a 3.14159265358979 for the rest of the world.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), December 03, 1999.


Malcom, are you saying "let them eat Pi?"

Embed? Panic? Herstatt? .gov? Virus?

I think we will be luck if it does not go past 7. Managing a 7 the way we managed Y2k in general --->8----->9------"oh shi*"

-- (karlacalif@aol.com), December 03, 1999.


Well, Chris you surely are correct assuming the power, water delivery etc. is disrupted. And for that reason contingency plans to cover those areas should be addressed, in my opinion. I know the company my husband works for definitely has the bucks, but many SME'S don't. Anyway, we don't know for sure yet that there will be disruptions to these services, and if disruptions do occur hopefully it will be short-term. My husband says that if there were long term power outages they'd be "screwed" as alot of their equipment would "freeze". Most of their work is done on site, and their trucks have to be running or they can't get to their job locations. Temperatures can reach 40 below Fahrenheit around here. And of course most mechanical failures occur during winter months due to cold weather conditions. My husband averages 12 ro 14 hour days in the winter months. Anyway, his employers have made up their minds that they're going to take the risk of doing nothing. Hopefully, the lights don't go out for any extended time period. Keep in mind people, some businesses (especially privately owned or small partnerships) drain their companies of liquid assets. The company my husband works for has NO large debts, and the owners are stinking rich - whoopee doo if their business fails. They'll just close shop and resume a new business of the same type. In fact a computer sales and service business in a nearby City shut their doors this summer. They also had internet service for my area. This particular business sold their own clones. Alot of people in my area were extremely teed off as they no longer had warranties on their systems. This business was packed and out of their building in a day. One of the kids down the street from me worked for them, and the owner gave him a carload of laptops, pc's, accessories etc. And you can bet their systems were not compliant. As you can see, this guy chose to get out while the getting was good. So many variables in this issue!

-- Val (vjones@cableestevan.com), December 03, 1999.

Again I say...a 7...with a real long shot at infomagic. I WANT a zero, but that does not seem likely. Key concerns involve energy...electric utilities infrastructure and oil. If one or both go down, all of us are in deep trouble.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 03, 1999.

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