Here we are in December 1999 (finally). I thought it would be good to see where folks are now on the scale. Besides posting the numerical value, consider also posting the 'why' - especially if you have moved up or down. Below is the WDCY2K scale and a couple of notes from the site: http://wdcy2k.org/survey for your reference. (Yes, I know it's not perfect, that there are other scales, etc., but for this thread I think it can serve to give us some idea of where we are and if people have moved up or down.) Back on February 8th, 1999, I asked this same question. If you would like to see what folks said at that time click Here

The url: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000TZ1

0 - No real impact

1 - Local impact for some enterprises

2 - Significant impact for many enterprises

3 - Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies

4 - Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents

5 - Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks

6 - Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies

7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions

8 - Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law

9 - Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread social disruptions and martial law

10 - Collapse of U.S. government; possible famine

NOTE: "social incidents" and "disruptions" have to do with demonstrations, work stoppages, strikes, organized vandalism, looting, and riots

NOTE: "supply/infrastructure problems" have to do with food shortages, fuel/heating oil shortages, disruptions in public utilities (power, gas, telecom), disruptions in transportation (airlines, trucking), and so on.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999

Answers

Expect 2 to 4, depending on my mood. Hoping for 1. But what do I know, my computer at work is officially: "non-mission-critical".

-- Richard Greene (Rgreene2@ford.com), December 02, 1999.

If 10 is not bad enough for you :) , you may also use TEOTWAWKI, or even TEOTW if so inclined. I think the numbers are in 'orders of magnitude', like the earthquake Richter scale.

I'm still holding at 8, Rob.

-- (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999.

Hi Rob!

This is where I'd absolutely LOVE to tell you it'll be a 2. I am not omniscient, but what I've learned has lead me to the following:

FIRST THE WHY: 1. The Y2K problem is systemic in nature and global in scope.
2. The Y2K problem causes systems to either be degraded or fail.
3. The consequences of systemic failure are cascading cross defaults, spreading the problem to the entire system of infrastructures supporting our global civilization.
4. Our leaders did not listen to experts while there was sufficient time to fix the computers.
5. Our governments did not recognize the problem for what it truly was until far too late to fix it.
6. Our governments apparently do not have the vision or willpower to fix the problem.
7. There are not enough programmers to fix the problem.
8. There is not enough time to fix the problem.
9. The people are not being properly advised or encouraged to prepare for realistic consequences of disruptions or systemic failures. 10. Governments around the world are preparing for widespread, severe, and prolonged disruptions. I have seen evidence of preparations for martial law.
11. Most crisis management response plans (consequence management) are new and untested. Nobody knows how well they will work against a crisis of unknown proportion.

NOW THE WHAT: A. A small initial impact, compounding to widespread infrastructure failures by summer of 2000.
B. An increase in terrorist actions against critical infrastructures.
C. Worldwide economic devastation (depression).
D. Social distress and the institution of marshal law in various locations.
E. Nationalization of critical resources and industries.
F. Rationing of food, gasoline and other essentials.
G. Rampant malnutrition, disease and death (by water and sewage failures).
H. The conflagration of local conflicts into at least one regional total war.
I. The world in chaos by autumn of 2000.

I will not guess at events beyond late 2000

Flame away...

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 02, 1999.

I came to this site because of my son (computer nerd said lovingly)I wanted to hear from people who were experts, engineers and such. Though my son is the one who told us all about Y2K last year. And I do respect his knowledge. He is young and only has 6 yrs experence. I wanted to hear from others. I was at a 5: after lurking here, I am now convinced of a 7. And have adjusted my preps...

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), December 02, 1999.

Hi back Kurt! One of the greatest generally held misconceptions is that everything will happen at or near rollover. I still see this concept as being pervasive with folks that have not done much research into Y2K. The wild card I think will be the chips, as far as the rollover weekend itself. We won't have to wait long.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999.

9.5......

For all the reasons above and, I think most importantly, the almost total unprepareness of the people that will fix on failure and keep society functioning. Without personal/family preps how could this be lower?

A friend of mine mentioned that he spoke recently with a sheriff of a county in MI who's very worried and brought up the spector of many suicides taking place if the market crashes a la 1929 or better. I hadn't thought about this and I'm sure there are other horrendous scenarios that will shock people to their core. I remember the shock I felt when I first reading the Gary North Main Page. I was numb and I'm sure alot of other people have shared the experience.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 02, 1999.

I am between these two. After reading the embedded chip article posted by Homer earlier today and then Kosky's commments I'm leaning toward the 8. I remember hearing over and over at the API conference,,,"we're just not finding that many problems with embeddeds" "they don't seem to have any date issues" "there's just not that many problems"....blah blah blah. There is big trouble comming down the tracks. Keep prepping.

7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions

8 - Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

Rob,

Rather than picking a particular outcome for Y2K, I think a better way to gauge potential risk is by assigning probabilities to different scenarios the way the forum did in July:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0015U1

My opinion hasn't changed since July. My estimate of the John Koskinen scenario is a 15% probability, Dr. Edward Yardeni's scenario 20%, Ed Yourdon's scenario 50%, the Paul Milne scenario a 10% probability, and the Infomagic scenario 5%.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 02, 1999.

Hi FRLian Chief! We're at 9.5, won't let our minds go near 10.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 02, 1999.

Marli: It makes good sense to prepare for any uncertainty, including Y2K.

Its better to have something and not need it than the other way 'round.

BFN, Rob

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999.

Nobody's gonna believe me, but I'm actually a rampaging optimist!

29 days to impact... BUT GOD IS IN CONTROL. Some things--like God's love and His promise to never leave us, no matter what--make life worth living and put Y2K in its proper perspective.

It's not the wind, but the tiller that steers the ship...

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 02, 1999.

I was at "8" last year, until recently. But after seeing what I've learned about the petroleum industry, transportation, martial law, etc., I guess I'll have to go with a "9." I wish this was a bad dream and I was just about ready to wake up. I never wanted to be wrong about something more in my life. I know I'm prepared to be wrong: I'm just not sure if I'm prepared to be RIGHT. sigh...

-- Liz Pavek (lizpavek@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

A & L,

I'm with you.... I can't mentally go to a 10. There has to be a ray of hope. I'm sensing a little more honesty even in Kosky. Maybe a few more will prepare before the panic

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 02, 1999.

I have always been a 5. But, with the "preps" .gov has been making, with the information gathered, mostly on this forum, about embeddeds, I have to sadly say that I have moved up to between 7 and 9.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus29&counting.down), December 02, 1999.

8.5 with a quick slide past 9 if the authorities are stupid or greedy. 10 is possible.

-- Art (artw@lancnews.infi.net), December 02, 1999.

0.5, with most of the damage done in 1999 with buggy software installed as y2k replacements.

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), December 02, 1999.

I go from 0 to 20 in under five postings...

-- Mr. Mike (mikeabn@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

Deliberately hovering around the 6-8 range, because I have to keep some optimism in order to just keep going, in spite of what I think will actually happen. Because I have small children, I need to stay "up." No one else in my family knows I think it will be this bad--husband doesn't want to hear it.

-- Amy (canaryclub@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

Unchanged at an 8. I agree with others that it may take longer to develop than I had thought previously. The dominoes are in place and the clock is ticking.

The sad thing is that it did not have to be this way.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), December 02, 1999.

I'll go with the 8 because I'm an optimist and I don't want it to be any worse, although that's possible.

As Kurt says though, God is all, and God is good. Even earthly devastation is okay under those circumstances.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

2.14159

ALK

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), December 02, 1999.

Minimum 5 open ended top side.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), December 02, 1999.

Or maybe a 10. Collapse of the US government, possible freedom

ALK

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), December 02, 1999.

7 IS MY PREDICTION , BUT WHO KNOWS . IT COULD GET REALLY HELLISH AT 7 IF IT'S NOT HANDLED WELL , AND CONTINUE ON A SLIPPERY SLIDE TO A 10 . VICKI

-- VICKI (VMOZELESKI@AOL.COM), December 02, 1999.

I asked God, and he said "Read Psalm 91".

-- RPGman (tripix@olypen.com), December 02, 1999.

After reading the posts by DD Reed and "Mr CEO" I now fear we are facing a 9, with a distinct possiblity that we will go "Infomagic." If we lose a significant amount of oil and electricity in the dead of winter, we will simply lose some whole entire cities in the northern tier of states, due to frozen water pipes and fires. I am very very terrified.

-- Tennessean (worried@stiff.org), December 02, 1999.

ALK: We will not have freedom until people fear slavery more than they fear the responsibility that comes with true freedom.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999.

No more than a 6...I hope

-- Rancherdick (cowman@meadowmuffin.urg), December 02, 1999.

Rob,

Look at the masses of people that will believe lies from known liars be it Kosky, Klinton, PR types. We have done our due diligence on this forum. People are not responsible enough to look into issues paramount to their families welfare. I think freedom is now not wanted, only time-saving "experts" to think for the masses because they can't. Very, very sad.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 02, 1999.

Hoping for no worse than a 6. Not betting on it though.

-- haha (haha@haha.com), December 02, 1999.

About 4 months ago, I would have said 3 or 4. Now, I got to go with 7, maybe 8. Personally, anything past 3 is really gonna suck. I work at IBM and I personally know a couple of programmers and the majority are really scared. A matter of fact, 1 just put in his termination papers and is gonna live with his parents somewhere in Colorado.

-- Familyman (prepare@home.com), December 02, 1999.

PJC: I know. It is sad. As I have posted so many times before, I think that people prefer to be entertained rather than forced to think, especially about something unpleasant like Y2K. Human Nature is immutable. People do not like change, they resist it. Many times change happens because it is forced, not embraced.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999.

I am almost afraid to admit how bad it could be. Trying to visualize what an 8, 9 or 10 could be (whoa). Its phsically difficult to actually type the words that support that type of rating. I do not think it will be less than a 6 (that cop out made it a bit easier). I believe it will be a chronic problem. If the PTB both .gov and business, mis-manage the fall-out as badly as they have managed Y2K.........Lord help us, because we'll need it.

-- wannabeoptimist (karlacalif@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

Sorry...

.....Still holding steady at a 10.5. Don't believe all of that crud about cyberterrorism and viruses, if and when you see things blamed on such, it will either be bona fide y2k or rogue elements of the .gov following Hegel's lead. It's the solution that they're after that they'll try to bring about, if need be.

.....I think y2k was God confounding His enemies, those that wish to build the modern-day tower of Babel, with no need of the Creator, just lying vanities of worshipping the "creation."

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), December 02, 1999.

My guesstimate is a 5-6 with the effects spread out over the next 2 years....if that's all it is I suspect Y2K will be good for us in the long run.

-- Don Kulha (dkulha@vom.com), December 02, 1999.

I am expecting at least a 5, leaning towards the 6 to 8. It will depend upon how our government reacts to the crisis both here and abroad. I too asked God and He gave me Psalm 32 (esp. verses 6 - 8).

-- Marty Robazek (mprobo@g2a.net), December 02, 1999.

Rob: 7.0

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

A 10 would be perfect. Yeah! 10!! Go baby. I'm reaaddddy to rummbbbbbblllleee.........

-- crazy (crazy@a.horse), December 02, 1999.

After 2 years of reading everything I can possibly find and working to organize our community at a grassroots level and the last 10 months working with our county on contingency plans, I would have to say 7 - 9. A lot depends on those embedded systems. Sheri Western Nev County (Calif) Y2K Prep Network

-- Sheri (wncy2k@nccn.net), December 02, 1999.

here in DC. i do y2k for business now for the govt so does my whole systems group (we work for large R&D non-profit). i am the only y2k worrier in the group. although three or four have prepared -- most of my local group (40+) hasn't. nor have most of my neighbors.

i finally got to my boss and he asked his wife to get rice and water when she went to the commissary. she forgot. i told him to remind her.

since the categories aren't clear oranges (some apples mixed in) i am a 7-8-9. i think it will be regional in nature with some regions getting totally screwed. govt will probably make a bad situation worse. i also think demographically society's poor and vulnerable will get nailed.

-- tt (cuddluppy@nowhere.com), December 02, 1999.

Hopeing and praying for a ZERO.

Opining that the probabilities are a *deep* inverted bell curve.

For my friends in OK that means it'll either be not much or real Bad.

I placed my bets a long time ago.

-Greybear

-- Got Means?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), December 02, 1999.

Verbose answer:

All my life I have loved to play the prognostication game. I love to put together clues and make predictions. I think I like it because it amazes people when I make a statement about something that I couldn't possibly "know" and then I turn out to be right. What an ego boost! It makes me feel real smart. And, incidentally, by conventional measures (that I have learned to discount and mistrust) I am pretty smart. I have a high math apttude and a much, much higher than average verbal aptitude (you should see me when I'm on a roll). I make my living as a technical writer.

However, I absolutely do not trust my ability to predict the impact of Y2K. I have learned in painful and personal ways that the ability to put together clues and guess accurately about the sorts of things it is possible to guess is a parlor trick compared to second-guessing anything as profound as Y2K. It is pure hubris to believe that I can ride that big a wave and not fall off.

So, I try hard NEVER to think in terms of what I expect or predict. It could be a 2. It could be a 9. But I believe I should read the writing on the wall, that this is *potentially* a very serious problem in a thousand different ways that could affect me and my family. I have not played parlor games with it. I have prepared for at least a 7 or 8. If it had been easier to prepare for a 10 without betting the farm that I was right, I would have done it. I stopped at an 8 and will try my best to deal with anything worse if it comes, like 99% of the world.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 02, 1999.

In the states: economically an 8 otherwise a 6

In the Philippines, where I hope to return next year, I'm afraid it will be 9. That would make it impossible for me to return, and that is my main Y2K concern.

-- Steve (s.hartzler@usa.net), December 02, 1999.

Same as always...a 7. If TPTB do something really stupid, it go to 10 in a few hours. Still hoping to be wrong about this.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 02, 1999.

If it where not for several factors which have to be included, I would be at an 8.

But vector in that John Q has been lied to all down the line. The decision of plant owners to take their various pipe line, oil refineries, chem. plants etc. off line. And the arguably clear point that the authorities will over react to situations. The time of the year (weather, oil, and the need for seed to plant the spring's crops). And, of course the info I receive from my industry (power generation) contacts.

I am afaird I must go with the grimer predictions(if you remember, he has a grim side of his scale to) of infomagic. We are going to have a real prehistoric "B" Kitty at our door step. With nothing to feed it...But ourselves.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), December 02, 1999.

Down from a 5-7 a year ago to may 2.5, if we're lucky. Why? I do Y2K for a large Aussie .gov mainframe site, if everybody else has done as well as us it won't be too bad. Still prepped for 3 months however.

We've been running all remediated progs in a Year 2000 LPAR for several weeks now, started the LPAR with date in late Dec 99, let it roll over, teams of testers have been simulating all on-line trans, no worries, continually re IPLing with ever more advanced dates, now well into Aug 2000, running all weekly, monthly, quarterly etc batch jobs as they fall due, everythings working good.

This doesn't mean that *everybody* will be fine, it's just that 18 months ago it all looked impossible, I'm astonished that we've made it to the stage we have, it just sort of gives one hope!

RonD

-- Ron Davis (rdavis@ozemail.com.au), December 02, 1999.

Expecting about 1.5, preparing for a 7 that will clear up in a few months.

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2 (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), December 02, 1999.

6 or 7. Hope it's zero. The astounding complacency of the american public -- matched (exceeded?) only by the dangerous complacency about the stock market -- will certainly "add 1" at least to any outcome, in my opinion.

Best to all...

-- joe (joe@adeveloper.net), December 02, 1999.

8.5 to 10.

Oil.

Oil

Embeddeds

And Cory's mainframes.

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

I was a 4 - 7 but after see Kosky come clean on the embededs I must land between 5.5 and 8.

-- Dana (A_Non_O_Moose@xxx.com), December 02, 1999.

Rob --

Hoping like the dickens that it is a 2 or a 3.

Preparing for a *lot* worse.

I am currently quoting odds of 50/50 Yourdon's 10 year depression or Infomagic.

Reasons: - Testing (or lack thereof.) In the industry, what is coming on Jan. 1 is commonly referred to as a 'smoke test'. - Mean-Time-To-Repair embedded systems has been grossly underestimated and too many places are going with 'fix-on-failure'. - Too much of the remediation has not been done, or, if done, was done poorly.

In other words, it is looking grim. And it gets grimmer every day. (Flint, weigh in here with your optimistic stuff, so I can sleep tonight.)

-- just another (another@engineer.com), December 02, 1999.

I was a 7 last year at this time...and now I am a 2. Sorry, while we read many of the same stories, I still tend to look at more of the positive efforts than of the negative. I have noticed that when someone posts such sentiments, he is immediately branded as someone who is a believer of the government line or as someone who is overly naive. That would be a faulty premise, as well.

At the same time, I have noticed the religious thread which is running within this topic. As a staunch Catholic, I understand the need for prayer, the dehumanizing of our society, the loss of innocence in our kids and the deceit in our leaders. And yet, it has little to do with y2k , just as the end times prophecies have little do with this 'phenomenon'.

Thanks for the question.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), December 02, 1999.

8 in the US with dirty power, martial law, rationing, suspension of constitution, cities in turmoil! Infomagic throughout the 2nd and 3rd worlds where suspension of grain shipments from North America means mass famine!!!! Ron Davis; thanks for your post. It's nice to see something a little optimistic, raises the spirits a bit.

-- Ralph Kramden (and@awayWeGo.com), December 02, 1999.

I remain at 6 domestically, and 8-9 in many other countries. That's for the initial impacts. Secondary impacts (2nd quarter and beyond) could lead the US down a slippery slope if Nick Cromwell doesn't pull off a few miracles.

My "best case scenario" has improved to a 4.

The keys are oil, water, and embeddeds.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), December 02, 1999.

December, 1998: 8.5.
December, 1999: 8.5

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 02, 1999.

9 Final Awnser? yes that's my Final awnser!

Sorry, XTECH the correct awnser was 12. :(

-- XTECH (XTECH@noplacelikehome.com), December 02, 1999.

As some of you know, I have a wonderful wife and family and have tried my darndest to get the word out in our community. I am also hoping for the least impact possible. One of the things I was wrong about earlier this year was I thought we would see much more in terms of preps going on by the public. When Koskinen said this summer that "Perception management is job #1", we knew that would be the gov plan. And it has been. Yet I never expected that it would have "succeeded" so well. I fear there will be a price for this, in human lives, and this will exacerbate any tenuous situations that do arise.

So we are left with hope, and a lot of unknowns - still.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 02, 1999.

beginning at a zero dot zero (0.0) at 12 midnight 31Dec1999

and leading to a one hundred dot zero (100.0) at 12 midnight 31Dec2000.

then again, maybe 24 years of working for Uncle Sam and in high-tech industry (both manufacturing and infrastructure) with these soon to be very expensive post-a-note holders has me jaded. :-)

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 02, 1999.

I go back to Mike Adams Y2K Newswire commentary of risk versus stake. I'm over 60. Therefore, the stakes are very high for me since I'm too old to rebuild anything in my lifetime. I go with, and have prepared for, a 9-10.

Todd

-- Todd Detzel (detzel@jps.net), December 02, 1999.

In June '98 we were at a 5 on the scale, but since then we have slowly moved up to an 8...largely because we are better informed. We believe that much of the trouble will come from a panicky populace who were too wrapped up 'feeling good' to take a hard look at what is coming. They remind me of someone sitting on the railroad tracks with his back to the approaching train, listening to a happy tune with headphones turned up.....wham, smash.....even though they should have felt the vibrations.

We've taken preparation seriously and have done what we felt we could physically and economically, but our greatest preparation comes from faith in God to see us through.

-- Paul and Kenin Marble (kenin17@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

At least a 6, but I believe more likely 8-9. (Prepared for 10, as best as one can try to be....)

29 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), December 02, 1999.

No smiley faces from me, lots of reading since 1/98 (when I discovered Ed Yourdon), so I am at an 8+ and hoping it doesn't go to a 10 but the scenario is highly likely. I always thought it would be embeddeds and foreign countries that would bring about our demise.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), December 02, 1999.

By this scale I assessed a 7.5 in early 1997 and I'm still there. But what do I know? I've programmed large system projects and UNIX kernel work and the like since 1982.

Bummer. I've seen very small changes to code cause long debugging delays. I've seen the addition of a comment alter a program's behavior due to compiler bug. I've worked on large systems of programs communicating with one another with multiple levels of protocol and states and triple levels of indirection and sophisticatd signal handling, and just trying to get into this code, to understand it, let alone alter it, can take a very, very long time. Sometimes it's just not quite possible it seems. And into these enterprise controlling systems of programs, with legacy data they want to overhaul the date logic and form - riiiight. I've worked with real time data acquisition and computer interfacing to equipment as well as some breadboarding electronic projects. The devil is in the details, and there are so many, many, many details. And my experience with American management is not encouraging. I don't trust most of them to deal capably with the challenge of Y2k, and this seems to have been born out true, human nature being what it is.

I've helped others prepare, and prepared my family. We'll help others as we can but I see a lot of suffering ahead. I also think nuclear war is tangible, very possible. "Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?"

On the other hand, I look forward to our life slowing down from the fervent prepping we've worked on for 4 years, whether Y2k is a 1 or a 10. May God grant our nation a spirit of repentance and mercy.

-- Programmer Farmer (sevenchildren@home.org), December 02, 1999.

Still at a 4-6 tho' it could slip to an 8 if oil tanks badly or .gov screws up their handling of the situation...

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), December 02, 1999.

Last Dec I was about a 4 or 5. After being involved in y2k councils with government and business for the last year, I'm afraid that my 4 or 5 will be for the month of January....then a quick slide by March/April to a 7 and if TPTB are not quick enough to act (and act properly), it will be a 9 or 10 by August. That's just in the US. The rest of the top tier countries will be 9 or 10 long before us. The lesser developed countries? You'll see a lot of people go down from the political towers they've built. The common people may well not even notice there's a problem. Infomagic is a distinct possiblity by this time next year. (I still want it to be a 0 or 1)

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

One thing to remember in this exercise. While no one *knows* what will happen, we _have_ to assess the risk as *something*, and our actions are the truest guage of our assessment. My preps reveal an 8. Better safe than sorry.

I compare it to driving in an ice storm - the risk of disaster is much higher and avoiding that requires a big change in your lifestyle. But no one *knows* they'll have a disaster.

Do you feel "lucky" today? :-/

-- Programmer Farmer (sevenchildren@home.org), December 02, 1999.

On second thought ...

If you take into consideration about the already incurred investment in all of the time, money, energy that has already gone into y2k preparations ...

We are ALREADY at or just over the point of 2.0

so I revise my earlier post to read:

two dot one (2.1) at midnight 31Dec1999

one hundred dot zero (100.0) at midnight 31Dec2000

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 02, 1999.

I do hate to speculate. However, I have spent many hours researching this thing and it don't look good. I have to go with a 7+. This is based on hundreds of hours of reading and talking to people. I have learned one thing in my life that helps me: GOD IS GOOD ALL THE TIME; ALL THE TIME GOD IS GOOD. Best wishes to all of you out there in cyber land. I am praying for a good outcome. I am prepared to be wrong too, and very afraid I'll be right. steve v

-- steve vaughn (billw86@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

----I'm a 15 up from a 9 last summer. too much complacency, all these countries executives have themselves convinced it's "all done' or "y2k ready" whatever. Horse hockey. Just on this one relatively small sampling we get here, the anecdotal stories are enough. they cover the range of goods and services, and they all tell the same story, and there hasn't been one bad chip failure yet, not the across the board failures.

Now with that said, look at all the other "clues". seems that a lot of folks in the know are sure taking this a lot more seriously than they let on in public, doesn't it? that's another good "clue"

Prepare for worst, then duck!

zoggus

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

A good case can be made that we are headed for a 5-6 WITHOUT Y2k. Throw in worldwide computer malfunctions into this economic quagmire with the inevitable social breakdown in the world's urban centers plus nuclear energy/chemical plant mishaps, banking/financial chaos and pretty soon your ready to listen to almost anybody with a more upbeat scenario. Where are Kosky and Opra when we need them. I give it a 9-10 with an outside chance of an 11.

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

It all depends on the grid. If the juice stops, an immediate 10 is likely within two weeks. If the grid works, a 3-5 in January escalating to 9-10 by summer. Elsewhere in the world, it boggles the mind.

Kook

-- Y2Kook (y2kook@usa.net), December 02, 1999.

I don't know what all you people are worried about. Little Kenny Decker(the vertically challenged?) says that there's no problemo!![laughter, chuckle, tee-hee] All the people will just have to spend more of their money on the necessities, like food, water, shelter,clothing...as long as your money will hold out, you'll be FINE, just FINE. He plans to be just FINE - his money is in T-bills and other govt guaranteed securities, with plenty to spare on hand in cash for the necessities. I seem to recall that we're invited to his house next September to "eat cake". Maybe while we are there, he will do the "christian" thing, and share his stash of loot? (Let's not hold our breath)

-- catfish joe (joe6pack@bottomdweller.net), December 02, 1999.

9.5. Neither an 8.5 or a 10 would surprise me. A 6 or less? NFW.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesoa@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

7 - Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions 7 (minus the political crisis) I DO NOT WANT THIS TO HAPPEN ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Although my end of millenium/new years resolution is to become an optimist so as of January 1 I am switching to a .25-.5. No matter what happens. (even if I have to bury my head in the proverbial sand) God Bless America



-- the Virginian (1@1.com), December 02, 1999.

A 2.5 but possibly closer to 3 is likely. No major shakeups at all have hurt the nation and problems continue to show that localization is what most problems look to be.

I don't accept all this Mr. CEO crap that has been going but if I did it would be at a 8 or 9. Think though if Mr. CEO was completely truthworthy, millions of school children would have an easier time in school.

"Billy where did you find this information." ask the teacher.

"Well this man that works with my father heard it from his best friends cousin told me. But I can't say anything more." stammers the student.

"I 100% believe you. You get an A."

-- Village Idiot (BAMECW@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

I am preparing for 8 - which could easily become a 9 or 10, as everything collapses on top of each other. Are the rest of you having a difficult time getting into the "holiday spirit". I can't seem to do it.

-- Scarlett (creolady@aol.com), December 02, 1999.

Rob,

On your scale ranging 5 to 8, domestically, depending on where you are. Globally 1 to 10... depending.

On my scale still hovering "around" an average "5". (But my "10" is global thermo-nuclear war).

;-(

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

7-9 - I live near seattle, 'nuff said

******!******* "there's one in every crowd"

-- Sammie (sammiex0@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

---

Y2K corrosion is eating the machine we're riding. And it's reaching a critical mass. Now, where will we go? And what will we do?

Even though our heads have been in the clouds, our feet are still planted here on the ground where we started. We think we're to clever to fall. But the facts are somewhat different...

There's been too much wishful thinking and not enough realism.

There's been too much lying and not enough truth.

There's been too much scheming and not enough honor.

There's been too much self-interest and not enough Faith.

Somewhere in all of this mess, unwise monetary policies have allowed an outrageous weakness to seep in right under our feet. And because of that, our money could become worthless overnight. Good morning Tokyo...goodnight New York.

There are people out there who are survivors, they always have been survivors and they always will be. And, they know themselves.

However, most of the people don't really consider themselves to be survivors. These people are players in the game, nothing more. Players with no useful skills if the clock gets turned back 100 years.

Of course, no one is going to stand around waiting to die, RIGHT?

But hold it, isn't that what most of them have been doing for the last year and a half? Just standing around waiting for someone else to fix it. Well why not? They've grown used to having everything laid out in front of them, theirs for the taking.

Long after the wise have prepared and moved on. The others will desperately try to do something, anything to plug the growing tide of leaks. They will face an impossible challenge.

Will they make it or will they fail?

I don't know.

---

I'm hoping for ONLY an 8 1/2, but see an easy 10+ slide could be the result.

---

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.

When I'm feeling optimistic: 4-5

When I'm paying attention: 8-9

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), December 03, 1999.

MODE=Verbose
SoapBox Status=RANT
With applicable appologies,.
I sit before this screen, having just finished partially provisioning a Site B bugout location. A NON- sustainable, 3 week hidey-hole where I can go to ride out the initial fire-storm. 6 months ago I would have told you that it wasn't necessary. I sat with a group of NAMES from this forum one saturday evening and we came to a 7.5-9.5 conclusion and I STILL didn't think it was needed. Mr CEO doesn't even come CLOSE to concerning me. What SCARES me SPITLESS is NIST/Century and the attendant partial publicity. What scares me S##TLESS is Koskinen's switch to OH-CR@P- CYA-MODE. And the fact that he has CLEARLY known all along and lied about it.
I WAS a 5-7.5 with the possibility that the slide (above 6) was greased to 10.5+ sprint to Infomagic.I am NOW expecting a BEST case to be 6 with the skids greased and watered, and the dancing bear blindfolded. If the fedgov handles the responses as well as they have the run-up, an 11 is NOT out of the question and Ol' Ivan M.'s closing line could be the epitaph for our society ("But I could be wrong. It might be worse.").

Praying that our preps (7-21 days buggout/60-90 days hiding self sufficiency, 40% of the tools for long term sufficiency) are CLOSE to enough (but NOT confident).
Chuck, a rather lackluster Night Driver
/VERBOSE; /RANT

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 03, 1999.

Hoping it is no worse than a 6.

REMEMBER, there are 2 things at work here.

One is the objective computer, programming and chip problem.

The other is the human reaction to the computer problem.

No matter what the objective problem is, human reaction could swing the raw number up or down 2 levels depending on how the people/government react.

My bet 2-5% deaths in USA, 10--25% world wide.

-- woody (woody11420@aol.com), December 03, 1999.

Dec., 1998 7 to 9. And I was hoping for it to be bad enough to change the people in government. Since then I have realized that at 57 years old, with a 4 year old daughter I am scared shitless and I do not want my life or my daughters to change. Dec., 1999 8 to 10 and praying I am wrong. My wife agrees 100% with me so tomorrow back to Sam's for more preps. We won't go out easily. Luck to everyone.

-- Mr. Pinochle (pinochledd@aol.com), December 03, 1999.

Let's see: Gary North still a 10
Yardeni still 70% chance of recession
Yourdon still 1 year disruptions-10 year depression,
Cory H. says the 50k main frames that run our world are not fixed, Jim Lord 8.5
Paula Gordon says expect 9.5 if the gov. doesn't do something-it didn't
the water systems of our cities have not checked and tested their embedded chips
the computerized militaries are not compliant
cyberterrorism is poised to strike on rollover
Russia's intentions are ominous
people on this forum I respect see an 8-10
Milne has made too much sense over the past 12 months
embedded chips overall too much of a mystery
the 500 year cycle is here
the banking system/markets are too fragile
judgments are past due
and if its time, Revelation is clearly a 10 followed by a zero
Looks like TEOTWAWKI to me. But what do I know.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), December 03, 1999.

My objective side says 0-10 (anything, and I mean *anything* is possible). However, my subjective side says 9.

-- Choirboy (choirboy@hellzchoir.edu), December 03, 1999.

Since I think at this point a Global Depression is the BEST case - put me down for an 8.
I *really* don't want to think about anything worse.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

No chance for anything under a 7 by summer 2000.

When I am feeling hopeful and hoping I am wrong, I can imagine a 7 to 8, all at once, gradually, or in fits and outbursts, but eventually reaching full scale by no later than summer.

However, as one of you put it very well, when I am "paying attention" and reviewing the evidence and research that I have processed for a year now, almost full time, then I must admit that I do not really expect to get away with a 7 or 8. Then I must face the 9-10 possibilities and try to come to grips with them mentally and emotionally.

I can understand why many of you feel resistance in allowing this scenario to come to mind. I have children, like many of you, and do not want them to suffer. However, I seem to have one of those minds that refuses to stay away from those places I would rather not go.

I spent lots of years both in college and on my own doing research to uncover the flaws in our civilization and tried to decide what to do about them, both personally and as a society. I also worked at the rape crisis center and helped women to face up to the truths about the things that happened to them. I have tried to face up to hard truths in my family and in the world. And when I learned about y2k a year ago, I just could not help but approach it with the same attention to research, truth-seeking, and search for a plan of action as in my previous work.

I have come to understand some very hard things. And this could be said of my other projects. Most people in the world are not able to do this work. Only a handful of people will be both motivated and able to even attempt it. And most people are happy to live in denial of whatever is painful in their lives, pushing it out of sight, numbing it with distractions. And even those who might have done this work are often pouring their hearts into some very worthy endeavor such as taking care of people, being musicians, artists, counselors, etc. and have no time left for understanding the very big picture.

I have long since quit expecting for people to be any different than they are and realize that it has taken many centuries of development for us to reach this point. It has been hundreds of years since every person grew or gathered their own food. More and more people moved to cities. My own grandmother was raised on a farm and told me all her life how happy she was to never have to dig another potato out of the ice in those Michigan fields. We are all now very dependent on other people and machines. When you look at the big picture it seems stupid. But each person over the centuries made choices, many small steps were taken, and sometimes they made sense and other times they were cruel, stupid, greedy, and all the other things humans can be.

If we face a 10, I have no illusions that people will suddenly all agree and become saints and create utopia. I am hoping that a few groups of wise people will start some new trends in a more healthy direction. If I am lucky, I will be one of them. And this is my hope for the next 6 months, that I can get through it and be part of the rebuilding effort somewhere on a very small scale.

The biggest worries are the grid, of course, the embedded systems, the other countries, the supply chains, oil, transportation, manufacturing, chemical and oil refinery explosions, nuclear power plants, one of which is only 20 miles from me, and fires if the power goes down, and water and sewage, especially water here in southern California.

I am gearing up to face all this sitting on the bull's eye of y2k.

In addition I do consider that Russia or China might launch, mostly by accident, and I am a target for that as well. So I will be taking the iodine before midnight. Thoughts of this scenario are more recent additions from Tom Atlee's site. But I do think this scenario's chances are fairly small, and there is little I can do now but hope.

I have camping equipment and gardening equipment and seeds. So I am hoping that the family will get it and there will still be time to move away from here. But I can see that it will take a situation in which there is absolutely no way to stay. They are all entrenched DWGI fans of the wonders of the technical world. I share this feeling about technology myself, except I now know better than to expect it to last, and I am painfully aware of it's flaws and especially the flaws of the global market that it depends upon.

So that is my situation here, and I thank you all for your great posts and for sharing this year. Best of luck to all of you, and I really hope we get a few more weeks of power as we slide into the 10 so at least we will be able to know what has taken place around the world before we lose contact.

-- Lora (artemis45@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

7ish. I'm an optomist.

-- The Whistler (I'm Here, I'm There, I'm Everywhere@so.beware), December 03, 1999.

I'm in the 5-7 range.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), December 03, 1999.

Want to make God laugh?

Tell him your plans.

-- Art (artw@lancnews.infi.net), December 03, 1999.

Well, because my house is currently full of nephews and nieces playing piano, wearing santa hats and putting up the christmas tree, here's my optimistic scenario...

The infrastructure more or less holds where I live,

The economy collapses only so far that most people still have jobs,

The banks are somewhat lenient about repossesions, (PMF)

The government doesn't go getting medieval on anyone's asses

The freaked out reaction of the populace becomes muted soon enough

Turmoil in neighbouring countries doesn't effect us that much

You can go to shops and buy stuff, money still works,

my city still works, my house still works.

----This would be a 7.

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

Cleaning up after number six. (I hope!) :-)

I guess I'm a little more of a Pollyanna than I was in February. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. :-) It's still global, and I think oil is going to be a big problem. I'm tired of the "suspense."

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), December 03, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

I think it will be about ten times worse than I did when I first came here in June. I was a flattened bell curve, centered at 7. Now, I've lopped off the 1-3 possibilities entirely, and increased the probability of an Infomagic or worse by ten-fold. I couldn't find the probability distribution from last time, but I'll make one up that I think fairly represents where I was at that time:

Jun 1999 --- 1: 1%, 2: 3%, 3: 5%, 4: 10%, 5: 15%, 6: 20%, 7: 20%, 8: 15%, 9: 10%, 10+: 1%
Dec 1999 --- 1: 0%, 2: 0%, 3: 0%, 4: 2%, 5: 3%, 6: 10%, 7: 25%, 8: 25%, 9: 25%, 10+: 10%

I've thought people would go into full panic at any moment ever since I realized Y2K would be a doozie, back in mid-January. Here's what else has happened since my first prediction of June: the earthquake in Taiwan, of Navy Utility Assessment, chemtrails, pre-blaming behaviors, saber rattling by several enemy countries, and Waco admissions. Also, the revelation of the involvement of Patrick Caddell in spin control, and my coming to understand that the media are much less independent than I ever dreamed (even though I've long been the most cynical media critic that I know) have greatly affected my score.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), December 03, 1999.

(Sorry about the bold.) 8.8

I honestly cannot see how an 8.5 will be avoided, and I cannot rule out a 10, though I'm not expecting it. There's at least l0 out of 100 different things that will go wrong, that are each sufficient to give us an economic calamity. I just don't know if they will compound, or if it will take something else to push it over the 9 level. There's quite a few "something elses" waiting in the wings, unfortunately. I expect international fighting.

Earth will be quite a different place - I wonder what our neighbours will make of it all. ;~/

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

I haven't changed my opinion since last year when I researched the embedded systems problem, still am an 8 to 9 on the Richter scale.

I find it interesting that with ALL the .gov SPIN over the past year that many folks here have moved down on the scale. Also have noticed the HERD beginning to move in our area.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 03, 1999.

Preparing for a 10 but hoping for alot less but I don't see it coming. To many unanswered questions about testing(or lack there of) and too many businesses going to FOF. Is this a great time or what??

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

One word: INFOMAGIC

Godspeed,

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), December 03, 1999.

I've nagged and cajoled everyone about this for months. Sometimes I gauge the strength of what I say by the reaction I get. 7-9 depending on so many factors that can't be determined at this point. Because it is uncertain, that is why I have prepared. Charlie

-- Charlie (cstewart@ime.net), December 03, 1999.

Well, I can visualize what I think will unfold, but I can't put a number to it. The scale starts at 6 for me.

Life will be very different, my one hope is to help preserve a good future for my son. Personal preps alone won't do that, it will take us all.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.

~~~~~~~~8...---...

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), December 03, 1999.

Chuck: You wrote "What SCARES me SPITLESS is NIST/Century and the attendant partial publicity". I missed this entirely and don't know what you are referring to. Can you, or anyone else, fill me in on this or provide a link if possible? Help.

Thanks to all of you who have responded. Some great posts here too - I had to re-read a couple of them - like Lora's post - thought-provoking and moving.

More responses welcome.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 03, 1999.

I have been reading and listing for three months now and my gut tells me a 3 however the forum thinks and the real world seams poised for a 6-7. I am hoping for a 1. God Bless. Keep preping.

Still BLUE

-- BLUE (bluefish@thepond.com), December 03, 1999.

This thread:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001ucu
and
both threads mentioned therein--
Effectively Natl Inst of Science and Tech and Century Consulting did a study, came up with the wrong answer, and Kosky released a sub-rosa 9or almost) press release on the conference where it was presented in NOV (the NINTH fer gawdssake ) and it has JUST NOW come to light.
Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 03, 1999.

Chuck: Thanks for the quick response. I'll check it out today. Isn't he supposed to give another Y2K talk soon - December 9th? If he does, it should be interesting to hear - especially remembering these recent remarks of his. Wonder if he will even agree with himself :)

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 03, 1999.

Domestic - Rollover starts with a 1 building up over time to a 5 reaching that by June. This is due to shortages from overseas and a price rise in gas regardless of whether the supply is interrrupted. Overseas stock markets will be devastated thereby affecting our own leading to a mild recession after about 6-9 months. International - Rollover starts with a 1 going to a 9 depending on which country we're talking about, of course. No problems from former Soviet Union because they're already operating at an economic 8 or 9. They don't have social disruptions because they've adjusted to the hardship. The big problems will be from countries that have a dramatic change in their standard of living, possibly Japan, but no social disruption just economic collapse. Tradition would never allow Japan to have riots like we do.

These predictions do not include the repercussions from the dissemination of viruses, terrorism or other nuts running loose but no wars anywhere. Tnis could bump the numbers by one domestically and internationally.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), December 03, 1999.

Art: (with all due respect, sir) Want to make God listen? Pray. Remember this line next year: "Jesus, have mercy on us all." A blessed Christmas and Jubilee to one and all.

-- Spidey (free@last.Amen), December 03, 1999.

I can picture a 10 and that makes me feel like everything we do is so futile. So I need some kind of comfort zone and I think a 7. But then I want to just make it through the rest of this year so I pretend it's a 1 or 2.(That's so my family will still talk to me at least while we have anytime remaining.People tend to avoid talking to me about anything that's future related.)

-- Itol D. Youso (mrosscorecomm@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

I expect and have prepared for a 6!

However, if the wackos get loose and try to help things out, it could get worse. I hope not.

-- just wondering (what.it.is@about.com), December 03, 1999.

Rob, to answer your question, read this and scream:

Kosky speaks about Embededs (not good)

forwarded: Recent Discussion of Embeddeds by an Expert

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 03, 1999.

Last night, I went to a meeting of our local emergency management volunteer group, and got some fairly detailed information about what the city (Sulphur Springs, Texas) is planning to do. They seem to have everything fairly well in hand except for food for more than a few days; luckily, there are some food warehouse companies and the like in town, whose stocks will probably be commandeered. The emergency management coordinator told us that after 48 hours, no gasoline sales will be permitted to the public. The emergency management volunteers, however, will get first crack at whatever services and goods are available. He hopes to have about 100 volunteers altogether, including roughly 10 hams who will be providing communications among shelters, the police station, and other key points. I'm very heartened to see how seriously the city is taking this situation, but it certainly doesn't make me feel any more optimistic about how bad it's going to be.

I still expect a 10. I don't think it will happen all at once, but will gradually slide down to that situation by February or March. However, since I also think that the refineries, chemical plants, pipelines, and so on are going to be shut down before January first because their insurance companies will allow them to operate over the rollover, we may not have to wait until then for blackouts.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 03, 1999.

A&L: Thanks, I think :(

Also, I glanced through Paula Gordon's latest thoughts on one of the threads... Think I'll go back to the FRL and stay there! Sheesh!

-- (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 03, 1999.

80% chance of 5-8 during the whole year. Wild cards: embedded chips, terrorism, and surprise attacks.

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), December 03, 1999.

.gov & .mil aren't going to make it in any form resembling the present state of affairs.

Herstatt risk is going to scramble the economic eggs. Interruption of oil sufficient to cause individual pain. Water & sewage problems will create health hazards. Northern cities at risk due to winter's cold.

Collapse of USA health systems and concurrent inability for pharmaceuticals to meet their manufacturing quotas will cause problems, including death, for the very many who are now dependant upon the present system. Changes in health care & our perception of treatable illness will cause deep psychic pain.

Cattle stockyards, chicken & turkey ranches hit hard due to non- reliable transportation of food, lack of water, sewage problems, inability to kill & process & pack & store meat.

Vegetables, Grain planting & harvesting in grave risk due to insufficient fuel, insufficient fertilizers, insufficient herbicides. Lack of sufficient farm labor highly probable.

I expect at least one: major chemical accident, major nuclear accident in the USA, more world-wide.

The lack of prep by SME's world-wide guarantees very high unemployment, and interruption or slow-down in manufacturing chains.

Import/Export slow-downs or interruptions will cause much psychic pain in the USA. I expect to see people in very worn clothing & shoes a couple of years from now.

Probable brush fire nuke exchanges between the usual suspects.

I expect to see an increase in suicides in the First World countries. I expect that the y2k related death toll two years from now to be a minimum of 1 billion, but much more likely to be much higher.

I call this a "9.8". A "10" means a large scale nuke war.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), December 03, 1999.

Steve Heller, thanks for your very interesting report. Our locality plans to completely shut off fuel to the public by January 1st, "if events warrant," meaning if there are any disruptions. Of course the public hasn't a clue and hears only Happy New Year, Everything is Fixed, Party On! :-P

The chances of no disruptions? 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 03, 1999.

First let me preface my opinion by stating that I have no expertise in computers. My opinion is based on 18 months of research, and a fairly good knowledge of human nature. I think it will be about a 7, maybe an 8 or more depending on how the powers that be handle the situation. On the human nature end of the equation, I feel that there is a mojority of people who naively believe that nothing can affect their way of life. These are the people who genuinely believe that Y2k is nother more than a bump in the road. Y2K may come as a major shock to most people. In the United States, I think the age group that will be affected most will be those under 25 years old. This age group has never known life without a VCR, a computer, pagers, cell-phones, etc. Of all age groups they are the most dependent on electronic technology.

-- Linda (lindasue1@earthlink.net), December 03, 1999.

Well I am with Chuck on this one, the NIST paper and Koskies summary is most alarming. My stance has always been a local "5" because of less risk but the big picture could be much grimmer.

Much of the problems are going to be localized, I have not seen this mentioned in many of the responces. Good luck to those in the bigger cities.

Rob you do have to get out into the real forum more often :o) Don't be such a stanger.

Matter of fact you have dropped off the top 20 posters.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 03, 1999.

Rather than a scale from 1 to 10, I like the scale shown here. Just replace "Ground Velocity" with "Return to Years Before Present." "Time" should also be replace with "Weeks" with the first week of Jan 1, 2000 being at about 8.5 on this chart.

The question remains: how much will our fault line be shifted.

Expect many aftershocks.

-- Quaker (Quaking@and.prepared), December 03, 1999.

Brian: Thank you for the kind sentiment. I have missed being here too. As you probably know, my forum time as been increasingly limited since the Spring. I only started one "real" thread in October and only one in November, for example. Yet it is no accident that I have been spending my forum time as I have. I came to the conclusion a while ago that laughter truly is the best medicine, and that as we drew closer and closer, consistent doses would be called for. I still believe this. Sometimes we all need just to take a step or two back - which was what was behind my "Pleasant Company" thread. Anyway, that's the why. Perhaps this will change after the rollover when I expect to have more time again.

-- (sonofdust@forum.poll), December 03, 1999.

Assuming we have the great good fortune to escape anything but contained and isolated nuclear/biological/chemical disruptions, and that the Iron Triangle does in fact hold through rollover, I envision an accelerating downward slide. Countless variables will determine whether and when a turnaround may occur. But as I see life on the blue egg in the days so soon ahead, I imagine that the effects of rollover will coincide in time with the levels of severity. Unless checked, I believe the numbers that represent levels of severity also loosely represent the number of weeks from rollover it will take for that level of severity to appear.

0-4: "The Official Version". Best case scenario. "3-Day Storm", "Bump-in-the Road". May be sustainable for as long as a month if most of A&L's fireworks fizzle or are kept from public view for a week or so. Confusion over conflicting information will unsettle things. But expectations of recovery will prevail for various reasons. In some important pockets, functions will quickly begin to regain balance in dominant Western cultures. (I want with all my heart to believe that this is as bad as it will get, that the shock will be absorbable, that the world-body will hold on to a recoverable life, similar to the one we now know. Then I hear that voice saying, "Only if one of the following statements is true will we escape catastrophe: either enough was successfully repaired, or we weren't deeply dependent on our technology in the first place.") 5-6: "Reality Check". By February, the effects escalating and cascading supply and infrastructure problems will emerge, coupled with enormous tension in the economic and political sectors. Suddenly a lot of mud is sticking to the wall, as system after system hits it. Not all untried contingency plans will prove to be adequate. This phase will be critical and, unless adroitly managed on all levels, short-lived, quickly moving into the next phase. 7-8: "Last Chance". As March begins, no one disputes that Humpty Dumpty has toppled and shattered. Now we have to figure out how to clean up the mess and build something from the pieces. Will the pieces be large enough to allow knitting them back into an egg similar to the one we previously knew? Will we successfully find the ways and means to remake a functioning, globally interlinked society . . . 9-10: or Not?

Waiting. Watching. Praying. Storing more water.

-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), December 04, 1999.

I think it will be a 7 based on everything I've heard over the last year or so. However, judging by what I've seen (or not seen) in changes in the majority of people around me, one would think nothing much is going to happen. What it comes down to is that I just don't know what to believe - even now. My friends don't think much about it, my family doesn't believe anything drastic will happen, and a good friend of mine who happens to be a computer programmer, feels it will most likely cause a few minor problems that we won't see immediately. Only one thing is certain and that is, that nobody seems to know for sure what will happen.

-- Julie (DesertJewel@Hotmail.com), December 05, 1999.

Uncle Bob rulez!

-- lil' dumbya butafooco (l@d.b), July 25, 2003.