Note for Ed Yourdon: Doesn't this one hit kind of close to home?

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Sounds like they are expecting problems in New Mexico. I guess it's better to expect them than to pretend that nothing is there...

http://www.abqjournal.com/news/23news12-02-99.htm

-- Reporter (reporter_atlarge@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999

Answers

Reporter,

Thanks for the heads-up. I almost didn't click on the link, because I assumed it was the article that got published yesterday, about the state government's great optimism about their Y2K progress, so much so that they told the National Guard they can enjoy a New Year's Eve party at home.

I don't know the background of Santa Fe's Y2K efforts, so I have nothing to add to the article. But I was intrigued by the comment in the final paragraph, to the effect that the electric utility company is now saying that there is a "high" probability that power might be out for a few hours. In the briefings they gave all over New Mexico back in February, they said that the probability of such a failure was "low" or maybe "modest". When we tried to pin them down as to what meant, one representative shrugged and said, "Oh, I don't know ... maybe one chance in a hundred."

Up in Taos, where I live, we get our electricity from a different supplier -- a regional "co-op" which, in turn, buys its power from another co-op, which I believe was operating earlier this year in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Naturally, we wouldn't dream of suggesting that a financial situation like this could have any impact on the energy and enthusiasm with which this utility is pursuing their Y2K remediation plans...

29 days to go...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 02, 1999.


This must be a mis-quote.

Any company that's worked to prevent Y2K problems will say there's a low probability of problems. Especially if they are not sure what's going to happen. Why predict anything negative if you really don't know what's going to happen? There's no risk in being positive ... and wrong. You risk your job if negative ... and wrong. P.S. Taos is a nice village -- Santa Fe's nice too.

-- Richard Greene (rgreene2@ford.com), December 02, 1999.


Jeez, Ed, I hope you can operate "Off Grid!"



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), December 02, 1999.


"This must be a mis-quote. "

Richard,

Could there be some chance that all the work they did led this man to believe what he said? There is very good reason for an HONEST man to not be positive, thats when he knows the real news is negative.

-- art welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), December 02, 1999.


Not only is it a misquote but PNM is asking for a retraction! * * * FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, December 2, 1999

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Don Brown, (505) 241-0837 / 790-6057 (pager)

"Yes, We're Ready." Clarification of PNM's Status for Y2K

An article in this morning's Journal North section of the Albuquerque Journal incorrectly represented Public Service Company of New Mexico's readiness for the Y2k rollover on New Year's eve. We are working with the Journal North for either a clarification or retraction of the error in reporting.

In fact, PNM has reported that its systems that are critical to the production of electricity and the delivery of both gas and electricity are Y2k ready. In early August, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), which is monitoring the readiness of utilities around the country, placed PNM on its list of utilities that are Y2k ready. Additional information on PNM's Y2k readiness and the NERC can be found at www.pnm.com.

After three years of systematic testing and correction of its mission-critical systems, PNM believes that voltage and frequency variations, not Y2k-related outages, are the most likely events within its service area during the millennial rollover. * * *

Another lovely myth evaporates on closer examination.

    --bks

http://www.ironic.com/y2k/

-- Bradley K. Sherman (bks@netcom.com), December 02, 1999.



Bradley, Thanks for the reminder. We ought to always take a close look. So I have decided to take a closer look.

The original report says:

"Officials with the Public Service Company of New Mexico have said that they expect a 'high probability' that local electrical service will be cut off for a few hours on New Year's Day because of Y2K problems. They have not ruled out the chance of longer outages."
The press release says:
"After three years of systematic testing and correction of its mission-critical systems, PNM believes that voltage and frequency variations, not Y2k-related outages, are the most likely events within its service area during the millennial rollover."
Dirty power doesn't sound good either. It is my judgement that dirty power could also lead to a power outage. I am quite sure that it wouldn't be good for my appliances whether or not they are Y2K compliant.

It's also important to note that they don't say that there is little chance of power outages. They just say that the chance for dirty power is higher. It would be helpful if they publish the results of their "systematic testing". That would put a technologist like me at ease.

Also looking at another place on their web site you can read:

"It is possible, but less likely, that there may be intermittent, short duration electric outages lasting 1 to 3 hours occurring during the several days following the date rollover to January 1, 2000. There also is a low probability of an extended outage lasting 24 hours." (http://www.pnm.com/y2k/Welco me.htm)
This is good information, and I don't feel that PNM should be afraid to warn the people. This is just good business. Now the people in New Mexico know to take careful precautions.

-- Reporter (reporter_atlarge@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

Did we just see a whistle-blower slipping through the PR net? Applause!

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), December 03, 1999.

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