At the end of 1929 the NY Times was looking back to report the biggest and most important story of the year. You would have thought the October crash, whereby billions of dollars of buying power vanished. No, it was Admiral Byrd's trip to the south pole. WHY you say?

In 1929 the Harvard Economic Society said the ecomony had reached a "new era" and that a recession was not possible.

Not one mainstream, status quo, economist forecasted the 1981-82 recession. ED YARDENI in the 1980's thought a recession was no longer possible.

I cannot tell you how loudly these statements speak to me. They are taken from "The Great Reckoning" authored by James Dale Davison and Lord William Rees-Mogg.

-- earl (ejrobill@pcpostal.com), December 01, 1999

Answers

Excesses everywhere.... And all this talk of how much better off we are in the financial area. For me personally (a middle class guy), I was better off in the 70's. I do the same work today, but not nearly as profitable. What I see is craziness in spending money like it is water... at least thats what the big corporations and the stockmarkets seem to be doing. Its so wierd that "an idea" for an ipo is worth many times what an established business is. Oh i understand that some ipo's do have a great idea. But not all. Yet it's like millions mean nothing. And the masses think things are great as long as the movies keep coming. As a child i always heard "What goes up must come down"... I suppose the majority of people are too much expecting the new world order to keep everything flying. Me, I'm gonna duck just in case those 62 million contrail makers all crash at the same time.

-- A Guy (waiting@y2kgetit.com), December 01, 1999.

EARL: I also have my own copy of that book, autographed, no less.

Too bad it was YEARS ahead of its time--kind of like 'the Great Depression of 1990" by Ravi Batra.

There is NOTHING in that book that has NOT come true,but in worse form than even the book foretold, and that the GREAT majority of people have no clue about.

There is MUCH more that is foretold in the book that will come true shortly. Time has merely stalled it temporarily.

It continually amazes me that economists REPEAT not only the same mistakes, but ALMOST VERBATIM the same slogans as their predecessors of days yore. They NEVER earn from history--Yardeni is a good example of one who swore that the economic cycle had been repealed!

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), December 01, 1999.

Actually, the interesting thing about "The Great Reckoning" is that most US people seem to think it was not prophetic. Mogg, et al, predicted that the '90's would be a time of recession and depression. And it has been - but not in the US.

Remember, these guys aren't from the US - they are British. And their predictions were right on. The US specific ones have been less true - but only so far.

The world DID experience a depression - in almost all of Asia. Much of South America has been in the dumper, too. Europe has been stagnate most of the decade, too.

I enjoyed their scholarship, and historical perspective. Something you don't see very much these days.

Jolly reads too much.

-- Jollyprez (jolly@prez.com), December 01, 1999.

Did the authors of The Great Reckoning write any new books? I so does anyone have a title. I really enjoyed their style. y2khope@aok.com

-- y2khope@aok.com (~~~~~@~~~~.com), December 02, 1999.