Nuclear Rookies India, Pakistan Under Y2K Cloud

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Nuclear Rookies India, Pakistan Under Y2K Cloud

Updated 6:27 PM ET November 30, 1999

By Narayanan Madhavan

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The clock is ticking but the world's newest nuclear powers have not yet totally dispelled fears that the Y2K bug may accidentally set their war machines in motion.

Barely a month before the turn of the year, it is still unclear whether old enemies India and Pakistan, which came close to their fourth war this year, have unambiguously eliminated the possibility.

The two South Asian nations have in the past taken limited confidence-building measures such as installing a telephone hotline between their army headquarters aimed at preventing accidental wars or triggers. But there is no official confirmation they have taken extra steps to ensure the Y2K computer bug does not pose such problems in their nuclear age, which dawned in 1998 after tit-for-tat underground tests.

Security analysts are worried. Unlike the United States and Russia, India and Pakistan have not publicized or confirmed -- and probably have not made -- coordinated efforts to ensure that a Y2K fault does not trigger misunderstandings.

Tim McDonald of the British American Security Information Council notes that the United States and Russia agreed to swap personnel to avoid misunderstandings over the Y2K period.

"I'm worried about people who haven't committed so much close assessment and analysis, like India and Pakistan," he told Reuters in London. "Their systems are much more fragile."

The Y2K, or Year 2000, problem can occur in computers that denote years only by their last two digits. Unless rectified, this could cause malfunctions when the new year dawns.

McDonald said he was receiving mixed messages about Russia but thought it was not as vulnerable to Y2K as Western systems. He said he was not sure about China or Israel.

BAD BLOOD

"The real problem with Y2K is the uncertainty it creates, which could lead to increased chances of accidental launch," he said. "India and Pakistan have very unsophisticated radar systems and they are such close neighbors they have much less time to respond to potential attacks."

It is not easy for Pakistan and India to talk. They stood on the verge of war between May and July, when Indian troops fought off intruders from Pakistan's side of disputed Kashmir. Relations have soured even further after a military coup in Islamabad in October.

More significant, they have no publicized stock of nuclear warheads.

A key Indian official involved in Y2K compliance said there was no doubt Indian missiles, which can carry all types of warheads, are Y2K compliant. But he said he could not comment on nuclear warheads.

"There are three aspects of Y2K compliance: preparedness, when a missile does not fire because of the problem; defense response, when somebody else is not prepared; and accidental missile mishaps," said the official, asking for anonymity. "In all three sectors they (defense authorities) have confirmed there is compliance," he said.

Other Indian officials were unavailable for comment on Y2K-related measures and nuclear warheads.

Pakistani officials could not be reached.

Kanti Bajpai, professor of international relations at New Delhi's Jawharlal Nehru University, said nuclear weapons in India were not in a ready state to create possible Y2K problems.

"I don't think nuclear warheads have been mated with delivery systems. There are a number of Prithvis (medium-range missiles) with the military, but these at best may have been loaded with conventional ordnance," he said.

He said the absence of a nuclear risk regime involving scientific contacts to prevent unauthorized launches was a matter of concern and confidence-building measures were necessary. "But given the current no-business approach to Pakistan, all this seems way off."

==================================== End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), November 30, 1999

Answers

Last week Jack Straw (the British Home Secretary) told the British parliament that he had evidence that, during last summer's Kashmir confrontation, both India and Pakistan came close to launching a nuclear attack (readying delivery systems, I suppose). Sorry that I can't provide a link to anything, but then neither did he.

-- Risteard MacThomais (uachtaran@ireland.com), December 01, 1999.

And christian one fights christian two And nations sigh, yet nothing do
And yellow men great power gain From mighty bear with whom they've lain.
written by "Mother Shipton" - 500 years ago.

* Y2K is Real
* Y2K is a subset of the Millennium Problem.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), December 01, 1999.

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