Mr. Yourdon-- Is this an accurate Paragraph from Dale Way?

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From Dale Way essay to Yourdon:

"Yet the almost universal fixation on Calendar roll-over, fundamentally a clock-only issue, which your (ED YOURDON) 'End Game' metaphor implicitly and therefore subliminally and dangerously supports, has so skewed the dialog and the public consciousness that society has been forced to focus on the 5% of the Y2K crisis that is least dangerous and easiest to deal with and obscured from clear view the other 95% fo the problem that has the potential to do great damage to the ecomomic and social order."

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), November 29, 1999

Answers

dciinc,

Brief answer, written while logged in at the Chicago airport, enroute elsewhere: I think that Dale Way is concerned that my wording would give the impression to a newbie that ALL of the Y2K problems are going to occur at the stroke of midnight, and that if we manage to survive without problems for the first few minutes of the new year/century/ millennium, all our problems will be over.

If the casual reader does get that impression from my writings, then Way's criticism is certainly valid. However, I think that another of my essays, which is titled something like "A Year of Disruptions, A Decade of Depression" should provide at least some indication that I'm aware of the possibility of problems continuing to plague us throughout the entire calendar year 2000, and possibly on into the next year.

If you really want to get carried away with this, Capers Jones argues that we'll be coping with these problems for 50 years -- because other systems (e.g., Unix) have their own clock rollover dates (e.g., 2038), and because the windowing solutions that have been hastily implemented for the past couple years will come back to haunt us...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), November 29, 1999.


Hmm, I smell a...

Take just a second to read the articles by Ed on his Y2K site and you'll see that this grossly trivialises Ed's treatment of Y2K. For example, this essay provides a totally different view on the dangers of Y2K. Try reading it, and then see if you want to ask this question again.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 29, 1999.

This has been covered from top to bottom. Please look back in the archives for my and other's criticism of Mr. Way.

-- TruthSeeker (truthseeker@ seektruth.always), November 29, 1999.

d,

Y2K IS a calendar roll over problem, what is this other 95% of the problem that you are going on about?

Don't tell me you have come up with a new, exciting replacement for us to get into when Y2K is over now have you?

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), November 29, 1999.


Colin,

Thankyou for sharing with us part of your doll collection. I would recommend that you share your collection with Ebay as the people their may care.

If you consider someone that honestly is curious about Mr. Yourdons response to Ways accusations of the 'End Game' metaphor being Dangerous, than I don't know what to say, other than your response is extremely reactive and inciteful. I have read the information you mentioned. It still does not explain why the Y2K chair of the IEEE would make the inflammatory comments in his essay regarding the "Fixation on calendar rollover" .

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), November 29, 1999.



Truthseeker,

You may be omnipotent for all I know, but I have not seen your credentials.

On the other hand Mr. Way and Mr. Yourdon make their credentials known for all to see.

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), November 29, 1999.


Cherri, the 95% alluded to is the Chairman of the IEEE Y2K working groups words, not d's. You know Cherri, the interconnected thing we've been harping about for the last two years.

Here's the big picture worry list for 2000, in order of increasing threat:

Economic failure: Largest speculative stock bubble in history coupled with the largest debt load in history. This will not be a correction, it will be a crash.

Y2K problem: Destroys the efficiencies of modern civilization, threatens to collapse the system of electronic banking, will probably imperil power and oil production, agriculture.

Militarism/terrorism: Increased probability of war, and cyber, nuclear, biological, chemical and conventional terrorism

Environmental: Worsening climate, solar effects, deforestation, overpopulation, urban density, pollution, global warming, and all those other planetary maladies that Paul Davis thinks are good for the economy.

This is why I figure we have a 50-50 chance of experiencing a depression at bad as the 30's and much more violent.

-- a (a@a.a), November 29, 1999.


Hi dciinc. Try re-reading your post. Your question is brusque and provides no indication of why you are asking it, nor why Ed should bother to answer it. You are asking if the paragraph is "accurate": if you want to determine this for yourself, go and read the articles and make up your own mind. If you are trying to squeeze an "admission" out of Ed, then at least have the courtesy to do it politely. You remain in my toy collection.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 29, 1999.

Hi dciinc. (Hello colin!)

Try re-reading your post. (NO!)

Your question is brusque- (was'nt meant to be)

and provides no indication of why you are asking it, (just curious)

nor why Ed should bother to answer it--- (he doesnt have to)

. You are asking if the paragraph is "accurate": (yes!)

if you want to determine this for yourself, go and read the articles and make up your own mind. (I have-thank you)

If you are trying to squeeze an "admission" out of Ed, (not trying to squeeze anything out of Mr. Yourdon)

then at least have the courtesy to do it politely. (I thought I was)

You remain in my toy collection. (no comment)

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), November 29, 1999.


Sorry dciinc, the troll picture was uncalled for. :(

It's just that Ed's prints the things that we don't dare say to our project managers, so some of us software engineers tend to be a little defensive of him. :)

I honestly read your question as "Dale Way says this. Deny it." and it's so patently unfair to pigeonhole any Y2K pundit (even, gasp, Gary North) based on one aspect of their analysis.

Re-reading the End Game article, Ed does mention 31-Dec-1999 a lot. But even so, he is careful to point out that 31-Dec-1999 isn't actually the end of the game:

"the chess boards will remain hidden not only until December 31, 1999 but even after we've entered the Year 2000 -- we may even be told that White has won, even when the reality is a Figure-1 debacle for White"

It was the "accurate" that threw me; I read it as an attempt to entrap based on an out-of-context quote. My fault for being so suspicious. I'd maybe have asked that as "How do you feel about this paragraph?". Sorry again.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 29, 1999.



Colin-- no problem! I understand!

Mr. Yourdon,

Thankyou for your response. Actually I find it interesting that Mr. Way seems to give you an incredible amount of power that even you may not have known you had.

Quote: "...has so skewed the dialog and the PUBLIC CONSCIOUSNESS that SOCIETY has been FORCED to focus on the 5%..."

It really seems to me that Scapegoating is becoming the order of the day. With the Power that Mr. Way says you have to "skew public consciousness", have you thought about running for public office??

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), November 29, 1999.


For background... see thread...

IEEE Y2K Chairman takes questions (Dale W. Way (d.way@ieee.org))

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001jnW



-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 29, 1999.


d,

Y2K IS a calendar roll over problem, what is this other 95% of the problem that you are going on about?

Don't tell me you have come up with a new, exciting replacement for us to get into when Y2K is over now have you? -- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), November 29, 1999.

Cherri,

You may want to read Way's article, as well as the explanatory posts he offered on this forum. Then, ask him your question.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 29, 1999.


I just love the way Ed responds so politely. A true Gentleman!

Thank you , Mr. Yourdon.

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 29, 1999.


I share another reader's comments: the politeness of Ed in all his replies to critics. I deeply appreciate this quality. Gentleman, indeed.

-- Parthasarathy Srinivasan, India (psrinivasan99@yahoo.com), November 29, 1999.


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