This is a real interesting read but better to just go to the link: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/Dec3.htm

Thanks to Jack (jsprat) for the tip to this site. sdb

----------------------- U.S. Naval War College Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project

GroupSystems Inputs for 3-4 December Y2K Scenario-Building Workshop

III. "Headlines in History" for Systems as Vulnerable Leading Edge Headline (Pre-31 Jan 00) [amplifying comments in brackets]

Euro Plunges as Yanks Dump Infected Money [Blaming the conversion software used in calculating the Euro for crashing their networks on the first day of trading in the new year, Wall Street currency operators shut down trading of Euros yesterday, starting a global stampede out of the one-year-old currency. Although the flight from the Euro has little basis in economic reality, spokesmen for the European Union are already warning the world markets against making the Euro a "scapegoat" for computer glitches caused by the Y2K Problem.]

Primakov Says, That If The World Bank Won't Assist, Russia's Nuclear Arsenal Will Be in Danger

Panic Spreads as Media Highlights Y2K "Roosters" ["No one can safely predict how bad this thing is," claims one expert. Conspiracy theories and fears of martial law spread to normally unreceptive populations.]

Water and Power Systems Go Down Due to Y2K Problems with Embedded Processors

Research in Latent Technophobia Shows Unsuspected High Percentage of Subliminal (It's The End of the World As We Know It!) Fears [Results in dispute. "Its the 60s all over again," comments one observer. All these "back to the land types" have just sprung up everywhere. And this time, they include people from many of the most "respectable" sectors of society.]

Ports Closed Down [Failure to completely test containerization systems before January 1 had led to the shutdown of major ports in Japan. To undertake the loading/unloading of vessels when we were not certain that the system would operate properly would be irresponsible, said Mr. Moto, Chief Harbor Master.]

Trading of Over-the-Counter Securities on NASDAQ Halted [Dealers refuse to make markets as price displays get corrupted. The NYSE will continue to be open.]

Flight to Quality Sets New Record in U.S. Treasuries Trading; Equity Markets Go Bear Hunting

Market Awash In Cashed Checks [Due to the collapse of the clearinghouse for checks, the New York banking market is awash in millions of uncashed and undeposited checks. No one is certain the full extent but many business and individuals will now only accept cash for immediate deposit before goods are delivered.] Suicides and Psychiatric Emergencies Mar Millennium Celebrations [Doctors and hospital workers throughout the world were on stand-by for unexpected (expected?) rash of depression and anxiety caused by experience of millennium change. We are used to "holiday trauma," says head of NY's Bellevue Hospital, but this is like Thanksgiving, Christmas, the full moon, and 40th birthdays all rolled together."] Bank of America Reports Y2K Errors with Foreign Banks [Bank of America, whose computers were reported to be Y2K compatible months ago, reports that the Y2K-related errors received from the computers of foreign banks as they attempt to conduct electronic cash transfers, are corrupting the Bank of America's mainframes. The Bank estimates that it will be able to continue transactions for only another 72 hours before they have to shut down & commence "repairs".] Guatemala's Fragile Democracy Threatened by Shutdown of Major Services [Y2K bugs in the country's water, electrical, telecommunications and other systems are having a major impact on stability in the country. Those who wonder what Y2K might accomplish that Hurricane Mitch couldn't in other parts of the region are finding out. The response to the Hurricane was more often than not referred to as "the will of God." In this case, the public's confidence in the will of the government to achieve democratic status is in question.]

Maritime Industry Less Well Prepared Than Thought: Backups In World Ports Becoming "Worrisome" [Officials overseeing the major ports of the world are growing increasingly worried about their inability to move cargo off ships and out of ports. Y2K-related glitches in the software used by freight forwarders, most of them small businesses, are blamed.]

Millions Die from Plague, War, Famine, and Genocide [The panic continues as armed gangs terrorize cities, soldiers desert to protect families, and the general system shutdown is growing. After the media coverage of millennial fever, and the abandonment of computer systems by technical experts, self-fulfilling prophecies converted law-abiding citizens to survival-crazed activists. With the breakdown of food supplies, medical care, and money, the only persuader has been "ammo, and lots of it." With the sewage system freeze-up in major population centers, the outbreak of diseases cannot be contained.] Millennium Travel Packages Suffer Widespread Logistical Problems Gas Pipelines Cease Due to Electrical Power Outages [Gas pipelines dependent on electric pumps ceased operation when power failed. This problem could've been averted if the pipeline had a redundant design that allowed it to utilize alternative power sources.] Titanic-Sized Y2K Event Overtakes XYZ Steamship Company [Cargo owner after cargo owner was turned away today from XYZ's freight cashier's window, where freight bills are cleared normally prior to taking possession of their cargoes. "The whole thing is a mess," says a company source. Customers expecting to pay their freight charges were taken aback when their Bills of Lading didn't match those on file with the carrier. Once more, demurrage, a penalty paid on cargoes that stay on the dock beyond a specified free time period, was said to be charged in the millions of dollars to each customer. "We've had to shut all the systems down," said a company insider. "Obviously, we missed this one." Because releasing freight to the wrong party is such a liability, the company must go through an accelerated systems analysis before resuming operations.]

Germany Announces Y2K Contingency Plans [Germany will use federal troops to help maintain law and order and provide emergency food distribution in all Lander. Realizing that small and medium size companies will not be ready to handle the millennium bug the federal government has said it will use its resources should major problems occur. As expected the Bavarian Parliament is protesting this unwarranted intrusion into its own affairs. Citing the fact that Bavarian is home to many multinational firms, Munich feels it will ride the wave with no major problems.]

Euro Rebounds; Prompted by "Significant" US Buying Spree Psychologists' Research Shows Nightmares Focused on Technology Increasing

Commerce Comes to a Stop [No one is accepting credit cards, checks and few will even take cash until banks can assure businesses that what is deposited will be reflected in their bank accounts.]

Economic Summit Called by G7; Russia to Attend Leaders In India Say No Need to Worry About Y2K [New Delhi Government leaders said today India will have no problems with the Y2K changeover because most of the country never computerized. At the same time India had educated more programmers than it needs and thus has sent them abroad.]

$50B Extra Simply Not Enough in US [With widespread hoarding and only underground spending, no end to currency problem in sight.]

Foreign "Attack" on NASDAQ? [Wall St. leaders suspect foreign sources were the source for the NASDAQ trading interruptions. Were "booby traps" left behind by foreign hackers during recent Y2K remediation efforts? The FBI has launched an investigation.]

Shrinks Say Women Handle Y2K Better Than Men [Ascribed to ability to deal with uncertainty.]

Technology Writers For Major Publications At High Risk For Psychiatric Episodes [The nation's psychiatric profession reports a dramatic increase in technology writers seeking care due to "depression" and feelings of inadequacy. Constant monitoring of civilization's Y2K problems blamed. "These men and women are the Y2K equivalent of postal workers who go bezerk," states one co-author.]

Intelligence Sources Admit US Has Quit Sharing Data with Several Allies Due to Y2K Failures [Failure of defense officials in Tokyo, Seoul to make systems Y2K complaint threatening US capabilities.]

Y2K "Iceberg" Sinks Shipping Firm [XYZ steamship company announced today it was suspending its vessel and terminal operations as losses mount. Computer system failures that have plagued the firm since January have caused clients to shift their cargoes to other carriers. Clients under contract citing performance clauses in order to terminate their deals accelerated the firms demise.]

World Wide Web Source of Fast-Spreading Y2K Conspiracy Theories [Public officials express dismay at the number and variety of conspiracy theories about Y2K spreading through the web. UFO landings claimed from places all over the globe. Controls impossible. "People are staggeringly credulous," Nicholas Zvegintzov, a highly respected analyst of Y2K pointed out. The irrational factor here is self-fulfilling, and the web serves as an amplifier of effects. By the time things calm down and it's clear that UFOs haven't landed, though, the damage will be done."]

Shortage of Religious Leaders Creates Overcrowding in Places of Worship [What do Catholics, Jews and Muslims have in common? All have a shortage of leaders for their congregants. Spurred by the millennial change, churches, synagogues and mosques have reported record-breaking crowds as people seek solace. The shortage of conventional leaders, coupled with their lack of credibility in addressing the issue in time leads to the emergence of a whole new group of prophets and new religious movements.]

Regional Rivalries Heat Up in Southeast Asia [Malaysia and Indonesia blame Singapore as island state's communications, financial transfer problems multiply and spill across cyber borders.] Sexual and Violent Crimes Up During Millennial/Y2K Season I Want My MTV! [No satellite TV is available across most of the Western Hemisphere on December 30.]

With Rural Hospitals Disabled by Y2K, Better Prepared Urban Medical Centers Soon Swamped [Remote-diagnosis and medical information networks for specialists fail in several regional hospital networks.] MoD Admits Vulnerability [A spokesperson for the British MoD has admitted that the vulnerability of their defense systems has not been fully tested.]

Unemployment Balanced by Overemployment in IT Industry as Y2K Nears [As the inherent robustness of computer systems becomes apparent with the approach of the millennium change, major corporations are laying off computer scientists. But law firms, sensing a bonanza, seek to address a shortage of expert IT witnesses for upcoming lawsuits. Call it Revenge of the Nerds, Part 2000.]

Crash Control: Y2K Sneaks Up on Overconfident India [India sought today to reopen its airports and banking and telecommunications systems disrupted by Y2K failures while many of its computer programmers were working abroad. The breakdown caused panic, chaos and riots in the capital city. Before the Y2K changeover, officials had said there would be no problems because the country has never computerized.]

Elders Especially Hard Hit by Y2K Confusion, Swamping Home Care Industry

Postmortem Headline (Post-31 Jan 00) [amplifying comments in brackets] The Lost Billions: Russian Government Still Investigating "Theft of the Millennium" [Still smarting from the serious loss of investor confidence following its fifth-straight year of a depressed market, Russian stock market officials vowed today to "never give up" in their search for cyber-criminals that made off with an estimated $11 billion from banking and business accounts in the first few weeks of 2000. While suspects have never been identified, Russian right-wing parliamentarians have maintained a long-term "whispering campaign" against India, insinuating that Indian nationals involved in Y2K remediation efforts were part of a "New Delhi plot" to bankrupt the Russian Federation under the cover of the Year 2000 Problem.]

Banks Learn That '98 Business Continuation Plans Simply Don't Answer the E-Mail on Y2K Disaster

Technophobia Causes Eruptions of Mass Hysteria in Many Foreign Capitals [Even though the damage of Y2K is relatively slight, people's faith in technology is down. The notion that there are technological solutions to problems diminishes. Depression ensues.] Violence Breaks Out Among Various Survivalist Communities [Race wars, religious wars, turf wars, gangs spread influence over population. Government forces, civilian and military reduced to triage. Leaders calling for calm ignored.]

Y2K Aid for Russia Misused [The war in Chechnya, military reform, and now... Y2K problem turned out to be efficient cover up events for blackmail and graft within the Russian government.]

Continental Order Restored Through Military Crackdown [Through coordinated crackdowns in 48 countries, the panic of 2000 has been subdued. In its place, a new order reigns, based on summary executions, a military priority distribution system, quarantining of sick people, and rationing. The Eurasian Central Command Authority, operating out of Paris now approves the media, including this reporter. All uprisings are treated as delusions of the dangerously mentally ill, with no limit to the severity of the response needed to quell dissent. Religious leaders expressed support for the measures, citing scriptures in support of leaders.]

Shortage of Water & Power Causes Widespread Rioting and Looting Law Suits Over Y2K Swamping Courts [Litigation over who is responsible for the Y2K computer glitches has overwhelmed the German judicial system as firms attempt to recover economic losses and recover damages for delayed deliveries of goods and services.]

Increasing Abduction Experiences by Extraterrestrial Reported: Millennial Hysteria? [Worldwide religion seen emerging. "Abductees clearly view themselves as a new chosen people," one expert claimed. "These aliens have traveled millions of light years just to look at their bodies. How else can they view it?"]

Y2K Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome Claims Wide Variety of Victims; Suicide Rate Up

Military Resumes Control Over Guatemalan Populace [After months of limited services being provided in the capital and other regional population centers, the military government has taken over the government and declared martial law. Life in most rural areas remains the same, but some of the groups that were brought to the table to engage in talks that lead to the Peace Accords have now resigned themselves to fighting for the changes that they had previously had hopes that they had achieved. The instability across the country worries American officials who fear a "flood" of political refugees across the borders into the U.S.]

Social System In Virtual Collapse [The hysteria and pressures related to Y2K have taken their toll on society. Due to limited preparedness efforts on the psychological front, the public is ill equipped to handle even minor Y2K glitches.]

Key Global Banking Firm Forced to Take Y2K "Holiday" [The Bank of America reports that it had to shut down its computers for two weeks due to bad data received from banks abroad whose computers were not Y2K compatible. The BOA reports that its revenue losses have exceeded last quarters profits, and wonder how long its computers will stay up and operating "this time". The BOA CEO has submitted his resignation.]

As 2001 Dawns, Mood of Change in Air [Elections in USA, Britain, Germany, Japan, and Russia show electorate willing to accept progressive agendas on economic equality and ecological balance. "Ready for the next 1000 years" mood of voters creating political upheavals not seen since 1960s.]

Men Less Intimidated by Chaos Caused by Y2K; Cause Unclear

PCs Fail for Major Regional Bank in Failed Y2K Work-Around [The large, networked PC system set up in December by Bank of York systems engineers failed yesterday leaving the Bank unable to process ATM actions or account for mortgage payments. The Bank was forced to declare a moratorium on mortgage and other debt payments and to refuse deposits. The Bank hopes to have its mainframe system up by March and to begin the long process of reconciling paper trails over the past two months.]

Reverse Psychology: Electronic Banking Explodes [Due to the Y2K glitches for the clearing of checks and credit card companies limiting purchases by holders, many consumers have turned to electronic banking as a means of payment and purchases.]

Local Hardare Chain Employee Arrested for Selling Stolen Portable Power Generators at 10-Times Market Value Out of Garage Anti-Technology Attitude Rises in Third World Countries; Anger at "Responsible Party" US Intensifies [Large-scale burning of technological tools and books in fundamentalist countries.]

"Y2K-Out" Continues for Third Week as Employees Refuse to Show Up at Accident-Ridden Plant

Largest Heist in US History Hits Vegas

Internet Explodes as Center of Commerce [Though growing enormously before Year 2000, the Internet has exploded as the main means of conducting even ordinary business as consumers lose confidence in traditional stores and supplies due to problems with cash registers and their unwillingness to accept checks.]

Foreign Aid Shorted as US Turns Attention Inward to Protecting IT Infrastructure After Y2K Debacle

Food Riots Continue in Frankfurt [This important banking center felt that it was well prepared for the Year 2000. The government's mishandling of food distribution--due to Y2K problems in federal scheduling computers--has led to dissatisfaction among the many immigrant workers in this city. Turkish guest workers already sensitive to Y2K problems amongst relatives back home have interpreted the use of Army personnel as a sign that the Government is trying to suppress their freedom of speech. What were initially peaceful protests about restrictions on quantities of fresh bread and milk have turned violent as ethnic newspapers raise the specter that Germany is using Y2K as an excuse to starve the workers out of the country.]

Certain Countries Collapse into Chaos as They Forget to Counter Apocalyptic Theorists Before Year 2000 [New DVD players record and copy the Internet spread videos depicting rapture, chaos, and revelations. The 7th Seal publishing house, variously reported to be operating from Holland, Moscow, and Taipei, has been vigorous in inundating believers with images of the end times. Authorities who ban such systems are "routed around," and often become targets for hate campaigns.]

Tokyo Sets Trade Limits on Nikkei for 30-Day Y2K Period New Techno Ship Lost at Sea; Cause Unknown But Y2K Suspected Shortage of Government Workers Following Recent Unrest [Fingerpointing leads to general intimidation of governmental workers. Government positions open up. No takers.]

US Companies to Rescue US Government? Much Privatization Foreseen After Y2K Disaster

American Catholics Make Bold Move to Build Up Priest Corps [The Catholic Church today announced a "signing bonus" for young men committed to studying for the priesthood. Spurred by the shortage of priests and embarrassed by its poor response to the recent Y2K/millennial unrest, the American Bishop's Conference said, "We had no choice. It's at a crisis point and we had to draw the attention of young men who might not contemplate the priesthood." Insiders hint that opening the door to women is the next straw the bishops will grasp if this inducement fails to reach its intended audience.

With Internet Down, More Kids Discover Outdoor Play--And Love It!

President To Address Nation Tonight to Repair Post-Y2K Image

Non-Compliant Servers in Europe and Asia Proved to be Achilles' Heel of Internet During Y2K

New Drug Wave Confounds Drug Czar

Techno Fascism On The Rise [A wave of enthusiasm for techno fachism sweeps Europe and North America; seen as control mechanism for social chaos resulting from millennialism and Y2K-induced breakdown.]

...end

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), November 25, 1999

Answers

Gawd! Is this what awaits us...is this from the Naval War College assessment of Y2K??

Where the hell is Infomagic when we need him??

Just 17 Federal workdays 'till the END!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), November 26, 1999.

Gawd! I just verified it...the site is real, and this forms the input Scenario for the December 3-4 workshop.

Just what ARE we facing???

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), November 26, 1999.

http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/y2ksite.htm

Link

Understanding What This Web Site Is All About

What we present here is not the Decision Support Department's official prediction (we have none) of how Y2K will actually go down around the planet, but rather a reasonable worst-case analysis of what Y2K could look and feel like if it turned out to be a significant influence on the global security environment over the coming months. Visitors to this site will note that we present a complete range of possible scenarios--from quite benign to quite damaging. That we, as a military research organization, focus on the darker-side potential of Y2K should not be viewed by anyone as indicating an increased likelihood that Y2K will be severe or even significant. We're simply looking at darker scenarios because that's what the military essentially gets paid to worry about (i.e., low probability, high impact variables). Let us note, though, that our focus is on the world outside the United States, a country that we--like most experts--expect will come through the Y2K event reasonably well (the big question being, "How much more difficult is the Y2K experience for the rest of the world, and how much should the U.S. care?").

Why make this material available to the general public? We thought it only fair to share our findings since the material is unclassified. Now we know there will be some who will sift through our material (especially the individual inputs we received from our workshop participants) and highlight each and every expression of worst-case concerns in order to exclaim, Aha! I just knew the military really believes it will be horrible, and here's the proof! And frankly, there will always be those fear-mongers among us. But systematically examining a worst-case possibility should not be an exercise in fear, but one of discovery and learning.

If you learn something at this website about what Y2K may yet teach us about the nature of such potential system crises as we become increasingly interconnected and interdependent in a global, information-driven New Economy, then great, for in that case we've provided you the same service we set out to provide to U.S. Government decision makers--namely, opening up their thinking to the full range of possible dynamics, outcomes, and legacies connected to Y2K and the Millennium Date Change Event.

If, however, you insist on leaving here full of fear and anguish (e.g., The military obvious knows more than it's telling us!), then you miss the entire point of this exercise, which we basically liken to checking your blindspot before switching lanes while driving. The vast majority of the time you can switch lanes without turning your neck and checking the blindspot--and nothing will happen. But every so often, something will happen, and it could be bad. Our investigation into the potential negative global impact of Y2K is no different. The odds are low. We'll probably "get away with it" without bumping into any worst-case scenarios. Still, it's better to check out the worst possibilities and think them through beforehand, because knowledge is power.

So, if you want to fill up on fear, there are plenty of other websites out there to feast on. But if you want to think through Y2K's potential global downside in a systematic fashion, we think we've done a decent job of imagining what it would look and feel like. And if there's any feedback you'd like to offer us on this material, please do so by clicking here.

-- Putting (it@in.perspective), November 26, 1999.

Held at Sims Hall, U.S. Naval War College, 3-4 December 1998

http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/Decy2kgs.htm

Link

-- (3-4@December.1998), November 26, 1999.

Putting it in Perspective -- Thanks! I think the War College's idea to "make it real" with headlines is a creative way to make concrete what is often dismissed as a technical abstraction. I wish it had occured to them sooner because that might have minimized any maladaptive reactions to the implications that for some are only now being grasped.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), November 26, 1999.

Heh, took another look. Boy do I feel like a fool; I hadn't noticed George Carlin authored the text.

Sorry to be vulgar, but that "Alien Abduction" one kinda pushed me over the edge. If some of that stuff really happens though I will be home crying; I'm not totally heartless.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), November 26, 1999.

Thanks for the disclaimer, but...still, it is as scary as anything Scary Gary has realistically been into!

Question...just WHAT is technofascism?? Is it good for "Children and Other Living Things??"

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), November 26, 1999.

"Question...just WHAT is technofascism?? Is it good for "Children and Other Living Things??"

Technofascism = Pagan Liberal Social Utopianism

Is it good for "Children"? = No. Just ask the 40+ million who've been sacrificed on the alter of convenience and political expediency.

Will it work? Only Jesus will work. Not Jesus + anything else.

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), November 26, 1999.

sorry...alter should be altar.

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), November 26, 1999.