Media Sends Mixed Messages on Y2K (Polly Article)

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Media Sends Mixed Messages on Y2K By Stephen D. O'Leary, OJR Columnist

Print version Previous Eye on Y2K: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11/99 Media Sends Mixed Messages on Y2K 07/99 Y2K in Religious and Mainstream Media (Part II) 07/99 Y2K in Religious and Mainstream Media: 06/99 Y2K Press Coverage Takes Manic Turn 11/98 Roosters vs. Owls As America gears up for the holiday season and approaches the final countdown to the year 2000, early projections of media-induced Y2K panic appear to have been inaccurate. Evidence indicates that millennial fear is nowhere near the level that many anticipated a year ago, when numerous media outlets featured stories about Y2K survivalism, and catastrophic scenarios--whether caused by computer failure or the ripple effects of fear--for a time seemed reasonable.

Y2K doomsayers have clearly lost ground in recent months. A constant drumbeat of optimistic statements by public officials, such as President Clinton's November 10 press conference announcing the release of the White House Y2K committee's final report, seems to have decisively tilted public opinion against alarmism. In a Reuters poll released November 18, 53 percent of respondents indicated they were "not concerned" about the potential effect of Year 2000, while 41 percent said they were "somewhat concerned." Fewer than 20% of those polled expected Y2K to cause any significant breakdown in government or commercial services.

Other signs that the doomsday rhetoric is abating include:

The Reverend Jerry Falwell, who a year ago was preaching that Y2K represented a divine judgment against the sins of technological civilization, has pulled his video ("Y2K: A Christian's Guide to the Millennium Bug") from the market. In a statement published in Christian Computing Magazine, Falwell repudiated apocalyptic interpretations of the computer crisis: "While I expect Y2K to be annoying and somewhat disruptive, I do not expect it to be as serious as some are projecting, or as I first feared possible." Even some of those who maintain the apocalyptic belief that we are in the End Times prophesied in the Bible have begun to anticipate that Y2K will be a non-event. The Web site for Diadem Productions, a company specializing in Bible prophecy CD-ROMs, has an essay telling us "Why Y2K is OK," which argues that "The year 2000 will be relatively non-eventful in terms of computer failures. Another prophecy web site goes further by incorporating the non-appearance of problems into its scenario for the End: "The Y2K problem will come and go and the preparations the [believers] made will be seen as not necessary. Y2K will be a counterfeit to catch the unwary." This sort of interpretation indicates that committed doomsdayers are being forced to revise their Y2K prophecies even before the passage of their apocalyptic deadline. Many of those who predicted major Y2K problems developing on or after the so-called "rollover dates," such as the fiscal year transitions on April 1, July 1, and the related "9-9-99," have been publicly chastised by other evangelists for failing to admit that they were wrong. An article by Steve Hewitt of Christian Computing exposes the errors of some prominent Christian Y2K activists and asks: "Will there ever be an admission that early speculation was over-exaggerated, or will some just assume their audience is not paying attention?" Local activists report that attendance at Y2K awareness meetings is sparse and decreasing. According to an October 12 Detroit News article, "These are hard days for doomsayers....The Year 2000 alarm that society will be brought to its knees by a computer glitch--so menacing, just months ago--is mellowing into something like skeptical nonchalance." The signs, then, seem to show that millennial fever is decreasing, and we applaud the efforts of those distributing Y2K aspirin in the form of non-alarmist information. But it's not clear that the patient is all better. Interestingly, A Harris Poll found that many consumers are hedging their bets: 24% of shoppers planned to stock up on at least some consumer goods such as water and food in anticipation of Y2K-related problems. In the same vein, a Reuters poll released November 18 indicates that "Nearly three in five Americans plan to hold extra cash for fear of the 2000 computer bug."

A logical conclusion from this plethora of sometimes contradictory evidence would be that though the majority of Americans are persuaded that they are not at risk for significant Y2K impacts, the consensus that Y2K will be no more than a "bump in the road" is rather thin. The experts who now state with confidence that the Y2K problem has been beaten have succeeded in getting their message across, but the public projection of confidence carries some risks. Given the immense scope of the technical problems to be solved, it seems rather irresponsible to congratulate ourselves for fixing our systems even before testing has been completed in all sectors. Mishaps, even major ones, could still occur; and they wouldn't have to be very serious to contradict the optimistic happy talk from public officials. If we see ANY major problems developing on or after January 1, the doomsday and conspiracy theorists will suddenly appear a lot more credible.

A quick glance at the most recent report card issued by Congressional Y2K watchdog Rep. Stephen Horn (D-California) gives us ample cause for concern that failures could still occur in crucial government systems. As of September 12, many programs were still not ready for Y2K, and some of the most important ones (in terms of public confidence and vital services, such as air traffic control, unemployment insurance, and even mail service) are not projected to be ready until the last month of the year. That's cutting it awfully close for comfort.

If the apocalyptic evangelists such as Gary North, who stubbornly maintain that Y2K will bring about the fall of Western civilization, have not managed to convince the public, then perhaps the entertainment industry may yet jolt the national complacency about Y2K. NBC's broadcast on November 21 of the "Y2K" panic thriller movie elicited many expressions of concern from the commercial sector and from public officials. It is too soon to tell whether the film was able to cause an upsurge in doomsday fears, but as we monitor the public responses to Y2K in the coming weeks, we should not be too sanguine about the prospects for a panic-free millennium.

Next week: A report on the FBI's "Project Megiddo," which anticipates violence associated with the year 2000 transition.

-- eggman (eggman@bluejayway.com), November 25, 1999

Answers

URL?

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), November 25, 1999.

Media Sends Mixed Messages on Y2K

From the USC Annenberg School for Communication Online Journalism Review

It's NOT a "polly article"!

"A logical conclusion from this plethora of sometimes contradictory evidence would be that though the majority of Americans are persuaded that they are not at risk for significant Y2K impacts, the consensus that Y2K will be no more than a 'bump in the road' is rather thin...

A quick glance at the most recent report card issued by Congressional Y2K watchdog Rep. Stephen Horn (D-California) gives us ample cause for concern that failures could still occur in crucial government systems. As of September 12, many programs were still not ready for Y2K, and some of the most important ones (in terms of public confidence and vital services, such as air traffic control, unemployment insurance, and even mail service) are not projected to be ready until the last month of the year. That's cutting it awfully close for comfort..."

-- (read@it.again), November 25, 1999.


Thanks for URL.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), November 25, 1999.

Snort! That's not "cutting it too close for comfort" at all. That's what's called "running out of runway".

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 25, 1999.

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