After thinking it over, and in view of the number and severity of the failures and breakdowns that are being reported, I am changing my opinion of the impact of rollover. At first, I was the usual alarmist, convinced that rollover was going to take it all out. Then I researched for a while, and became almost as convinced that the actual rollover wouldn't be the time to fear, but to watch for cascading failures to pull systems down as the year progressed, especially around February 29. Now, because I'm finding out so much more about the actual conditions that prevail and getting a more truthful look at y2k related failures, I have to say that my opinion is shifting back to the original "rollover-catastrophe" position I held earlier. I still predict at least an 8, and all the subsequent failures and accumulating breakdowns will still occur, as we all expect. But now, I'm sure that rollover is going to be much more spectacular than I had earlier believed. And the first thought that came to my mind was, "Make sure you have ALL YOUR WATER before December 31!"

-- Liz Pavek (lizpavek@hotmail.com), November 24, 1999

Answers

Liz, we too are expecting fireworks on New Year's.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 24, 1999.

Damn. I was really looking forward to nothing happening & everybody thinking me a gullible fool.

Does your present job involve making plans for January? Mine does. It feels odd. I'm supposed to put schedules together for events in the first 3 months, & I keep wondering if any of it will actually happen.

-- it's been (so@really.surreal), November 24, 1999.

it's been: That's a big yep here. I'm a teacher, and we keep having meetings about preparing for the TAAS test (state mandated test), taking the TAAS test, etc etc etc. Planning for the annual end of year 8th grade trip to Six Flags. Etc. Seems weird. I keep saying a silent prayer that it all will happen (the normal stuff, that is).

Took my daughter to the dentist the other day and the receptionist gave me a card telling me her next appt is for May 23, 2000. Didn't know whether to laugh or cry.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 24, 1999.

Now that I've learned how to do links thanks to the nice explanation on one of the other threads today, here is the link to Infomagic's classic explanation of Charlotte's Web, and how too many failures coming at once will bring the whole thing down:

link

The failures that are getting publicized now are from NEW computer systems that are Y2K compliant but apparently were ramrodded into place so as to be ready for 2000. Come January, systems that were not replaced but had Y2K fixes ramrodded into place will start going bonkers. A true double whammy, bordering on Infomagic's conjecture.

Now, just add the element of all the embedded chips that will fail ON TOP of this on or about Jan 1, 2000, and you get a triple whammy. Of course, it's ALL interconnected and interdependent (those are the words that pollies just LOVE to hear, you know), and as per Infomagic....

Got web glue?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 24, 1999.

I just had to turn in a five year quality plan. I predicted absolutely zero returned product a year from now!

HEHE!

Kook

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), November 24, 1999.

Preparing:

I know how you feel. My son had a dentist appointment last week and is scheduled for the next one in May. I just don't think that appointment is going to be made. It's sad, really. I often pray that this Y2K crap will be "just a bump in the road" and I can get back to a normal life (if there is such a thing). My kids are to young to understand the complexity of the whole situation and it looks like they're going to be forced into learning it the hard way.

I can also agree with Liz. About the middle of the year, I was starting to think it won't be as bad as I originally thought but, I may have to revert back to thinking and accepting the fact that the good times may have come to an end. :(

BTW: Thank you all for the kind help in my preparations for the coming year. You have no idea how much this is going to help me.

Thanks again!

-- Familyman (lastminutecheck@list.help), November 24, 1999.

Hey, I've got jury duty 3 Jan.

-- Mr. Mike (mikeabn@aol.com), November 24, 1999.

Funny how perceptions differ. I've finished most of my preps, which are necessarily meager. I have nothing to go on but a gut feeling and that feeling is increasingly optimistic. I think there would be a much bigger panic by now if the worst is just around the corner. Of course, my gut feeling may be wrong; mere wishful thinking. BTW, I like my toast with peanut butter.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), November 24, 1999.

Mr. Mike...

Great. They'll need juries then...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 24, 1999.

Hey, Monk, yes, they will need juries, but will the real crinimals be on trial?

-- Mr. Mike (mikeabn@aol.com), November 24, 1999.

Mr. Mike,

Wear a heavy coat ... It might be cold in the courtroom ... LOL!

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), November 24, 1999.

Lars,

I've had "several" gut feelings in the past 33 years and they've ALL been right. Here's a few: Space Schuttle Challenger Forboding feeling; something bad would happen to my dad; ( He had a heart attack ) A terrible feeling my number "could" be up when I got on board a DC-10 plane back in 1979. We blew an engine on takeoff. We were fortunate we didn't get airborn like the one in Chicago which was 100 feet off the ground when it's engine blew and it crashed upside down. No survivors.

This latest "feeling" or perception or gift of insight from the Lord is that we will have MARSHALL LAW.

Enjoy what we have been given to all of us. Maybe this Thanksgiving I and all of us can see how much we have been blessed by the Lord's grace and mercies.

Job, who was a wealthy man, when he heard the "bad news" that he lost his children and material possessions said,

"The Lord gives and the Lord takes away. Blessed be the name of the Lord."

-- eyes wide open (djwolf@lanset.com), November 24, 1999.

Eyes wide open

Does Marshall Law know Matt Dillon?

-- (festus@miss.kitty'splace), November 24, 1999.

EWO--So your gut feeling is different than mine. So that's what makes a market.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), November 24, 1999.

Liz,

If you divide the problem into embedded chips or systems and large software applications. The large software applications appear to have a large window of failure with lingering problems of corrupt data. However, of all the 100 or so odd IEE embedded systems case failures that failed at roll-over, not one failed on 12/31, they all ... all failed at the roll-over. From the problems we are seeing with large system's applications it is apparent that there will be some notable and increaseing levels of distruption for the next two months at least. The question then is what is your assesment of the impact of the failure of embedded systems. Sure we will see some SCADA type systems with a longer look ahead that will fail before roll-over, we will see a number of failures from botched implementation of embedded chip remediation. But the wild-card is embeddeds. If we have minimal problems with them, cool, party it up and pay your rent late, well maybe not that good. But if the embedded systems are confused on the proper way to manage the liquid hydrogen cooled electricity generating turbines -> Boom.

-- PD (PaulDMaher@att.worldnet.com), November 24, 1999.