Serious question...Is TEOTWAWKI inevitable?

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I would like to know if there are any of you that think TEOTWAWKI is a near certainty come y2k. If so, could you give your reason(s) and background? I just want to know if there are any (many?) RATIONAL intelligent people that feel that way (not just religious 'reconstructionists' or kooks). Thanks alot...looking forward to your answers!

-agnostic doomer

-- agnostic doomer (doomer@maybe.com), November 22, 1999

Answers

Do your own homework and decide for yourself.

-- anonymous (anonymous@anonymous.com), November 22, 1999.

I can not think of a better answer to your question then to read the Infromagic series of essays on this topic.

-- Sure M. Worried (SureMWorried@bout.Y2K.coming), November 22, 1999.

agnostic,

Check out Daniel Fisher's site. He explicitly explains his religious background which consists of one out of body experience. He is not a member of any religion. He is also a doomer on the level of Gary North.

Personally, I found it easy to separate the value of the information and evidence from the biases of the personal giving them. It is an essential part of y2k research. It is unreasonable to expect all of your sources to have the same perspectives as yourself before you allow yourself to be informed by them. I learned this in grad school.

I have 10 years in computer maintenance and a college education. I also do not belong to a religion, but my views on the subject are not agnostic.

The important thing that Gary North has done for us is to gather the information in vast quantities, categorize it, and link it to the source. Anyone who can suspend judgement of him personally long enough to skip over his comments and go check out the actual reports will find all the information needed to realize y2k will be a big event.

How big you must decide for yourself since this is a very personal matter of opinion. There is no crystal ball, only a large number of pieces of the puzzle which you must gather. I have researched full time for a year and decided that this will start big or small and become big, 8 to 10, most likely.

Even though I am opposite the views of most on this forum, I have learned a great deal from them this year. I also learned that even though y2k attracts certain groups at first, fundamentalists, but also ecologists and new agers, once it hits those divisions will be gone. Until then, with the mainstream under the misinformation of the powers that be, don't expect very many of those with your views to get enough facts to understand it any time before rollover.

Best of luck in your research.

-- Lora (artemis45@hotmail.com), November 22, 1999.


Or you can check Gary North's site at www.garynorth.com. He has literally thousands of factual essays which make it very clear what is coming. It's not a religious issue, it's a computer issue. And the systemic nature of this problem make global catastrophe inevitable. The best you can do is prepare with as much as you can to survive.

-- (its@coming.soon), November 22, 1999.

Unfortunately, it looks like Paula Gordon is going to get her 9.5. The spin is complete and the people are going to realize what hit them.

Public housing is not fixed for Y2K in eight major cities, we learned today. What do you think that means?

It means Paul Milne is right.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 22, 1999.



It is a possibility! It is amazing when you consider how greedy, selfess, and shortsighted we are that we have not destroyed ourselves earlier. We live such a life that is so alienated from our MOTHER EARTH, that I would NOT put it out of my mind that something could happen that would bring humanity in living more with our MOTHER EARTH. If it is just two digits, in lines of computer code then for me I see so much irony in it. Something so little, born of our shortsightedness, bringing down our glorius indestructible society.

-- Kayla Michael (kaylam@jetcity.com), November 22, 1999.

The fact that Y2K is worldwide, affecting so many nodes of the web that makes the delivery of the everything we have come to rely on so in doubt, is why this will be a historical event like the Great Depression. Add to that the almost universal denial, non-prep mode of the world and you have an epic disaster.

I pray that I'm wrong...

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), November 22, 1999.


Someone said:

>Public housing is not fixed for Y2K in eight major cities, we learned today. What do you think that means?

That on 01/01/00, public housing will think it's 1900? Apartment blocks will begin to spew out bad data and all the people who have their money on deposit in a tenement won't be able to access their accounts?

My GOD, someone better alert the media!

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), November 22, 1999.


The nation to nation aggression and revolutions that will occur in some nations certainly is an end to the world as we know it. We'll all be having to purchase a new atlas and struggle with even stranger sounding nation names.

I think a modest guess is that by this time next year the global population is at 5 billion. I suspect the number of deaths will be higher. It only takes 3-5 days to die from the lack of water and I think the lack of water will be that main killer, after that will be famine and disease.

The literal definition of "TEOTWAWKI" is that one doesn't see ones own military in existence anymore. Even if one is having to survive in an isolated spot without any connection or assistance a military plane never flies overhead. I do not think we in America even remotely run that risk of literal TEOTWAWKI.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 22, 1999.


Wasnt it little teeny tiny fleas carrying even littler teeny tiny organisms called the bubonic plague?

-- JB (noway@jose.com), November 22, 1999.


"Is TEOTWAWKI inevitable?" Nope.

Might TEOTWAWKI happen? Yup.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), November 22, 1999.


My grandmother was born in the 1880s. She lived in Everett Washington and remembered tall commercial sailing ships in the harbors. Before she died, she saw the advent of electricity and telphones in her town. She saw automobiles, airplanes, radios, televsions, appliances of every sort and computers. In her late 70s, she was one of the first to have laser eye surgery.

Think about it...each technological advance heralded a TEOTWAWKI for those of her era.

The world changes quite rapidly compared to centuries ago. I, myself have seen the television, the vcr, the computer in my life time. We are a resilient lot.

The difference in this TEOTAWAKI is the potential for a very sharp change within a very short amount of time and the demise of reliable machinery upon which we have become dependent.

TEOTAWAKI is merely very noticeable change. It is not TEOTW.

-- anon (anon@anon.calm), November 22, 1999.


You beat me to it Jeff!!

But that one was like stealing candy from a baby really.......you know.....public housing not ready in 8 cities, we're all gonna die....aaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhhhhh.......

I wonder how you would make public housing Y2K compliant....perhaps they have embedded chips in the toilets and God help us all if the studs and drywall have not all been thoroughly tested to ensure that they don't mistake 2000 for 1900. Whoa....gives me the shivers just to consider the possibilities!!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), November 22, 1999.


You obviously have not considered that large, multi-floored building complexes may have environmental and other automated systems (heating, cooling) that involve embedded systems. DDDuuuuuhhhhhhh

-- anon (anon@anon.com), November 22, 1999.

:-) You know Paula I have read that people can not live or over 5 days without water. This is science. The thing I do not seem to get is that someone would sit in the same place for 5 days without water.

I think they will move and get water. Sure some will get sick and die from drinking bad water but I really don't think that many people will actually die from lack of water. Hopefully they will be wise and boil or solar heat water to purify it.

The sick and old may die from results of no water i.e. kidney dilaysis or cripple and can not get to water source, surely someone who knows them will bring water to the cripple.

I do not know about the rest of the world but there are creeks, streams all over Georgia USA. I can walk about 1/3 mile East, 1 mile south, 1 mile West and 1 mile North and be at a natural water source. For me to sit and not walk two miles total at most and let me and my child die from having no water would just be lazy and dumb.

Unless the gov. physically prevents the people from walking to the water source then actually dying from "lack" of water will be small I think and no where 1 billion people.

Sorry but I just can not see people just continuing to sit there having no water. I think they will move to water even if bad water.

As for the original question.

I think it will be worse than most of the people are thinking. I think supply lines will stop or slow greatly and cause massive unemployment. Many will have major problems and some use of 1800 type lifestyles will exist as transportation will be a problem and people will have to learn to do things for themselves since they can not purchase from others great distances away. They will have to get firewood, haul water, grow food, make cheese locally and distribute etc.

If the power is gone for extended time and who really knows what is going to happen there then each who has no power will be shoved back a few decades.

If the nukes, bio war or chemicals enter the picture then we may see major death and being thrown back to the 1800's big time. No one can really say. I personally do believe war is coming just do not know how soon.

-- Onebyone (susanwater@excite.com), November 22, 1999.



I guess that brand new $50,000,000 Y2K 'bunker' in DC is just a religious edifice?

-- Lets (face@facts.com), November 22, 1999.

It's not an edifice. It's an orifice.

-- anonymous (anonymous@anonymous.com), November 22, 1999.

the end of the wold as we know it happens frequently, just look back a year or two.

-- things have alredy changed (KOOK@DOOMER.polly), November 23, 1999.

Ah, if you only hadn't used the "Y2K" qualifier, I'd have said...yes, certainly the world as we know it will come to an end. Then if you've ever had life-changing experiences, you know that it does. My sister lost her 12-year old son 18 months ago to a car accident. For her it was TEOTWAWKI.

Perspective, use it or lose it.

--She in the sheet, upon the hilltop,...

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 23, 1999.


Dog Gone,

My rating is a provisional 5 - 9.5 depending now on what leadership is shown by public and or private sector in light of the Federal government's apparent failure to treat the Y2K and embedded systems crisis as a crisis. If the Federal government were to begin to take major steps to avert or minimize national and global impacts, I still believe that the impacts could be less than a 9.5.

National and global initiatives that can still be taken now and through the rollover will be discussed tomorrow evening on a panel to be broadcast by C-SPAN. The information is below. For those in the DC area who would like to attend that panel or a concurrent panel on family and community preparedness, see the details in the announcement below.

GW Y2K PANEL TO BE LIVE BROADCAST ON C-SPAN TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 1999 at 7:30 PM (EST)

Forwarded Excerpt of a C-SPAN ALERT:

Subject: C-SPAN Programming Highlights [for 11/23/99] From: alert@c-span.org

(snip)

Y2K CONFERENCE SERIES AT GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV. LIVE on C-SPAN at 7:30pm ET "Still Needed: Additional National and Global Initiatives Aimed at Minimizing Anticipated Impacts of Y2K"

END OF FORWARDED EXCERPT OF A C-SPAN ALERT

**********************************************************************

UPDATED DETAILS CONCERNING TWO GW Y2K PANEL PROGRAMS TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 1999

A panel focusing on alternative national and global initiatives to minimizing the anticipated impacts of Y2K will be held from 7:30 to 10 PM. This panel is part of the last evening of programs in a conference series that began on November 10. The conference series has been emphasizing the need for a wide range of additional initiatives that still need to be taken in order to minimize the anticipated impacts of Y2K. These initiatives include minimizing the possibility of problems occurring as a result of technological disasters involving everything from nuclear power plants, chemical plants, oil and gas pipelines, refineries, hazardous materials sites and facilities to water supplies and sewage treatment plants. The panel on national and global initiatives is comprised of individuals who have played leadership roles in bringing to the attention of government and the public the seriousness of the threats and challenges posed by Y2K and embedded systems.

No pre-registration is required for this free program. All interested are welcome to attend. If you would like to pre-register for this free program, please e-mail

WHEN: Tuesday, November 23, 1999 7:30 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.

WHERE: The George Washington University Funger Hall, Room 108, 2201 G Street, NW (22nd & G Streets NW) Washington, D.C. (Foggy Bottom/GWU Metro, blue and orange lines)

PROGRAM AGENDA:

7:30 p.m. to Funger Hall, Room 108 10:00 p.m. "Still Needed: Additional National and Global Initiatives Aimed at Minimizing Anticipated Impacts of Y2K" Moderator: Paula Gordon, Director of Special Projects, Research Program for Social and Organizational Learning (RPSOL), GWU

Panelists: Dr. Lawrence de Bivort, Director, Global Y2K Consortium

Norman Dean, Director, Center for Y2K and Society

Stuart Umpleby, Professor of Management Science and Director, RPSOL, GWU

Dr. Robert Alloway, Director, National Leadership Task Force on Y2K (Invited)

Margaret Anderson, Director for Policy, Center for Y2K and Society (Invited)

The Honorable James Moody, CEO and President, InterAction (formerly a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Wisconsin)

This panel program is scheduled to be live broadcast by C-SPAN.

A Y2K PANEL ON FAMILY AND COMMUNITY Y2K PREPAREDNESS IS SCHEDULED DURING THE APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME FRAME ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Another panel will be held from 7:10 to 10:00 PM Details concerning this second panel are as follows:

7:10 to Funger Hall, Room 103 10:00 p.m. "Family and Community Preparedness"

Moderator: Philip Bogdonoff, Center for Y2K and Society

Panelists: Jay Golter, Acting President, Northern Virginia Year 2000 Community Action Group (NOVA Y2K)

Peter G. LaPorte, Director, District of Columbia Emergency Management Agency

Sally Strackbein, Y2K Kitchen (http://www.y2kkitchen.com) and Vice President, The Northern Virginia Year 2000 Community Action Group (NOVA Y2K)

Ray Strackbein, Information Systems Consultant, Reston, VA and The Northern Virginia Year 2000 Community Action Group (NOVA Y2K)

The Reverend A. Guy Fouts, Wheaton Maryland

This panel focuses on Y2K-related family and community preparations. The Director of The District of Columbia's Emergency Management Agency will be one of the panelists. That Agency is now recommending that the public have a supply of water and non-perishable food on hand that will last from 7 to 10 days. Representatives of one of the most progressive community preparedness groups in the region, the NOVA Y2K Group, will also be taking part.

This panel is not scheduled to be broadcast on C-SPAN. Only the panel on National and Global Initiatives is scheduled to be broadcast.

Please feel free to forward the announcement concerning these two panels to others.

For further information concerning Y2K, please see the URLs noted below.

For Parts 1 - 6 of a White Paper on Y2K by Paula Gordon, see http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon For a Y2K Audio/Video webpage of Y2K related programs, see http://www.y2kapproaches.com/real/pgordon.htm

The videotaped proceedings of the July 1999 GW Y2K Conference will soon be posted there. For comments on the conference and copies of prepared statements and related material, see http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon/1999conference

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), November 23, 1999.


Of course TEOTWAWKI is inevitable! Who ever told you we get to keep this planet? Do I think Y2K will bring about TEOTWAWKI? Nah.

-- mil (millenium@yahoo.com), November 23, 1999.

So what does religious belief have to do with being able to discern whether or not Y2K is serious?! Some of the greatest thinkers in world history have benn or are religious, and nobody had to "talk real slow so they'd get it." Let go of your prejudice against religiosity. I'm a Christian and a registered nurse. When you're involved in a serious car accident or have a severe anaphylactic reaction, are you going to determine how religious I am before you let me save your life?!

-- Ann M. (hismckids@aol.com), November 23, 1999.

If the Federal government were to begin to take major steps to avert or minimize national and global impacts, I still believe that the impacts could be less than a 9.5.

Paula, I certainly agree with you, but the point I was trying to make was that the Federal government shows no inclination to take those major steps. There were rumors floating around that they might begin a public initiative in October, but that never materialized.

Now we are deep into the holiday season, and the public is focused on things other than the Federal government. The government probably couldn't effectively take those steps now, anyway.

Any effort they make after Christmas will probably be along the lines of recommending that the public avoid creating gasoline lines on New Years Eve.

In other words, the government is doing nothing to make Y2K a 5. I think it could be as bad as a 9.5. Unfortunately, we're going to find out quite soon now.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 23, 1999.


yep, one day we all die

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), November 23, 1999.

"yep, one day we all die" The problem as I see it is to avoid it being the same day for all of us.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), November 23, 1999.

Public housing in the named cities is at high risk for the following failures: Heating system, security system, elevators. Many social programs on which the very lives of these people depend are also at high risk of failures. Picture NYC, a tenement in January...no heat, no security system, no foodstamps. You find this humourous?

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 23, 1999.

If the government is so incompetent that it couldn't even get the building systems compliant in public housing, why would we have confidence in anything they've done? Typically those residents are not particularly self-sufficient and are dependent on government services for their very existence. Now we're told that those services are in jeopardy. What does the government expect them to do? Wait quietly in their apartments and wait for help?

You couldn't design a better recipe for inner-city trouble if you tried!

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 23, 1999.


I feel that it will come to pass, but I don't want to talk about it here on the forum. The negative responses are more than I care to deal with. Please email me, and I will answer in full. Thank you,HH, relief@coastalnet.com

-- The Happy Hoarder (relief@coastalnet.com), November 23, 1999.

If the government is so incompetent that it couldn't even get the building systems compliant in public housing, why would we have confidence in anything they've done? Typically those residents are not particularly self-sufficient and are dependent on government services for their very existence. Now we're told that those services are in jeopardy. What does the government expect them to do? Wait quietly in their apartments and wait for help?

Dog, as much as it sickens me to write this, I think government has and will order their priorities with non-self-sufficient people as follows, ordered by significance: 1) Controlling their locations and moves to organize. 2) Immobilizing "trouble-makers" and organizers. 3) Lastly, relief and aide. I agree with you that our government is incompetent in many regards, but protecting its particular interests (not to be confused with the interests described by the mainstream press) is absolutely not one of them.

-- Mike (cubfan@chitownnet.net), November 24, 1999.


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