Dear Associates,

To understand this post, you need to understand the speaker meta-quoted quite a bit, so Ive chosen to break this report down into two sections. For the first half, I have made a one or two sentence summery of what I thought was relevant. The second part is the actual quotations of the speakers conversation with me and Ron Banks.

Since huge amounts of tape were inaudible, I simple wrote (inaudible) or (ia).

There were five people included in this discussion (many more in attendance, but only five included in this discussion.) To save time, I simply put in their initial to identify them.

For your edification:

The speaker was Paul Oaves He is the Vice President of Public Affairs and Special Projects for Tosco Marketing Company. Tosco is the company which operates through the Circle K, 76, and Exxon brands in Arizona.

Gary Niki is the National Y2K Red Cross representative.

Michael is the moderator.

Braha is a retired woman.

Ron Banks is ronbanks from this forum! What an honor and delight it was to meet him! Fortunately, (for me) hes a nice guy with a great sense of humor. He brought me a box of water purification tablets to take with my canal water! It was a pleasure to meet you Ron.

Myself (Laura)

The meeting started out with Paul introducing himself, and he showed us a few charts.

He said the level of paranoid about Y2K has come down tremendously.

He doesnt predict shortages.

He said the petroleum industry started working on the problem five years ago, and were ready last October.

Braha told him "ready and compliant are not the same."

He said, "In my opinion, ready and compliant are the same."

He said he had a tremendous level of confidence in the industry because they were working with the government..the presidents y2k counciloutreach and cooperative efforts. He felt less confident about the telecommunication and electric companies than his own industry.

"Nobody (API) saw anything out there that would shut the place down"

He said, "His critical suppliers will pretty well be ok"

They (the petroleum industry) deals with problems all the time; although, when you multiply a single problem by 2 or 3, you can have a problem . He is more worried about people problems, and that is something they are trying to address. Hes concerned with the Mothers day scenario (When everyone calls on Mothers day, it cripples the phone lines for a short time - if everyone buys gas at the end of the year, it will cripple the industry for a short time.)

Gary Niki asked, "Will your employees be focused on work?" (12/30 & 31) "Will they be prepared? If you are prepared you can focus on the business at hand."

Paul said they have 25,000 employees, and they have a Y2K/preparedness workbook available for them .

Tosco will be tied into API and will be monitoring the progress of industrialized countriesNew Zealand (?) on Friday morning.

One of the members asked Paul, "Do you think everybody will fill up their car?"

He said, "Where are they gonna go? Y2k is unlike a hurricane. People dont need to leave their areas. (inaudible)

He stated that sabotage is more and more of an issue.

He stated that if everybody runs out and fills up their cars, theres not going to be enough fuel. "Theres just no way."

I asked him, "Is there anyway you can accommodate for that?"

P. "No".

L. How long will it take to refill the gas stations?

P. Probably around 24 hoursIm not worried at all

ronbanks. How much crude do you have between your refinery and your stations?.

P. You are probably talking 2 to 3 weeks.

L. And if those pipelines are closed, delaying systems for 4 hrs., up to 20, what will happen?

P. No difference.

L. No difference wheremaybe no difference in Arizona.

(A large portion here was inaudible.)

P. They only get product once every six days anyway. (ia)

P. It doesnt matter if these pipelines are down for 4 hours or 20 hours. Thats already happened.

L. The problems isnt the pipelines. They are doing the responsible thing by shutting them down. That makes me wonder, wouldnt the responsible thing be to shut down the refineries also?

P. No.

L. Do you know of any refineries that will close?

P. No.

L. They will all stay up?

P. (He nodded yes) Now, if we see something happening , especially if we something in the time line, then we will react to it.

P. You dont just shut a refinery down and start it back up

RB.. Do you ever stop it after some major problem and then start it back up?

P. When we take it down for maintenance.

L. How long is it down?

P. If its an emergency situation, and we lose power, we may get the power back 2 hours, but it will take two or three days to get it back up.

L. If you are down for 2 or 3 days, doesnt that put you into candle production? What are you going to do when you cant run that refinery. Its going to take you how long

P. Thats not expected to happen. Irrespective (inaudible) refineries deal with stuff like this all the time. (inaudible) We expect the power grid here to be the most stable and reliable Ive seen. (inaudible) we show excess capacity that we have on-line, plus the amount of hot stand-bys (inaudible) and in the northeast we could have a cold front, but most of the country (inaudible) all the guys in the power companies are going to be there working.

L. So, youre not concerned about the electricity for those, but, I just recently read the disclosure from Baker Hughes, and I dont know if you use those products.

P. Dont know who it is

L. You dont know who it is? You dont know who Baker Hughes is? OK, they supply the oil industry with a lot of equipment. As a matter of fact

P. The production.. we dont use their equipment.

P. But, it doesnt matter, you are dependent on their production, and if their equipment goes down,

P. Thats just not gonna happen.

(Long inaudible period)

P. Crude oil crude is not gonna show up at the refineries for up til a month later.

L. So we could be looking at very long term ramifications?

P. Its not gonna happen overnight. You have a lot of time to react to it. You go some place else to get it.

L. Where else are you going to get crude? Overseas?

P. Sure.

L. Saudi Arabia? Theyve got more problems than we do.

P. No they dont. Everything Ive seen in Saudi Arabia is pretty2k ready.

L. Is that right. Theyre y2k ready.

RB - Venzuela?

P. And Venzuela.

RB - Nigeria?

P. Nigeria is..we dontNigeria I havent seen a clear spec on.

L. Alaska?

P. The oil industry operates in a lot of third party countries. When you think about, " My god how are they ever gonna survive" well they survive every day. If youve ever been in the middle of Nigeria, you will find the furring (?) companies producing over there, have already tried on the ships and everything, they dont rely on Nigerian power companies to supply power to the Nigerian phone company They have their own system. Its not unusual for them to lose power.

L. That may be, but there is still a cascading effect because their embedded chips may not have been remediated, and then on-down the line that you just described.

P (inaudible)

RB. A lot of redundancy? I mean do you have a lot of backup systemsa lot of redundancy?

P. Now lets see, weve got bright engineers from all over the world to come over here to figure out howyou know, theres nothing to gain by anybodys not producing, selling, or manufacturing.

L. But, they dont have a choice. Of course there is nothing to be gained

P. Theyre not just sitting around back there.

(Long inaudible section.)

P. Interruptions happen all the time. Whether it is a political strike here or production problem there, hurricane in the gulf of Mexico

L. But, thats different than the embedded chip problem. You can look at natural disastersthose all come and go, and we can deal with those; but this is an embedded chip problem. You know theres a problem with those embedded chips, and I know there are someor, may I ask you, what percentage of the embedded chips are in a somewhat or at least difficult...

RB. Inaccessible

P. I would say that theres probably a lot of them that are downhole problems. (ia) but they know what those chips are.

L. What percentage?

P. Every last one of them. We know who made them and what model they are.

Braha. Well some of them are not produced any more. Some of those companies are out of business.

P. Then what we do..we take a sample of them and we make an umbrella, close down that oilwell and rework the well four or five (ia) pull the chip out (ia) if it doesnt fail, theres no reason to believe the rest of them of that model and that manufacturer (ia).

L. If it does fail, how long does it take to get back up.

P. (ia )Baker Hughes (ia) gets around to it(ia) I dont know ..(ia) 24 hrs.

L. So, you do know who Baker Hughes is.

P. You told me.

Michael Laura, there are sixty billion embedded chips in the world, of that, the number that we expect, like 3%

L. are critical. I know.

M. Thats number 1. Number 2: Of that theres only 1/10th of 1% that will have any problems. Youre talking about an infinitesimal amount.(ia) SRP (local electric company) went through their entire system, from stem to stern, they did not find one embedded chip (problem? Inaudible). OK. My guess is, that most of that are not time and date driven. (ia)

L. Well, actually, I do have some sources that say that they are.

M. Well, Im sure you can find a source for everything.

P. (ia) I will stand behind that statement by the American Petroleum (ia).

L. Well, One of my sources is the International Energy Agency, which is the watchdog for your industry

P. Who are they, and how long ago did they say it.

L. June, or September.

M.. We can sit here and debate all we want, Weve been through this for four years now, and weve found more than one side to the story.

L. Yes, of course. But, we have a real, live man here, and I want to be able to ask these questions

M. Laura, hold off. Weve asked Paul to share his knowledge

L. And I appreciate it 

M. and if you disagree with him

L. Im not necessarily disagreeing with him, Im asking what

M. Hes already answered those questions. Hes got sources and youve got sources. Right now I think we need to take that off line.

L. (To Paul) Would you be willing to?

P. No. I have to get back to work. Look, Im giving you everything Ive got. OK. I dont have a specific answer to everything (ia) but I can tell you that somebody linked with an organization (ia) in the world (ia) and they feel comfortable about whats goin on. To me (ia) solving problems.

The recorder clicked off, and I couldnt turn it over without attracting attention. He didnt talk much longer anyway.

My gut feeling was Mr. Oaves was telling the truth. I was hoping he would be a nefarious, reticent son-of-a-bitch, but he was more forthcoming than I expected. He did not always fully answer my questions, but, I think he was very patient with me. Furthermore, I believe - he believes - what he was saying. He is on record making these statements in a public forum, and although he didnt want to discuss the matter any further with me, I did believe him when he said he was giving me all hes got.

I spoke to several people after the meeting adjourned, and the general consensus was: Y2K is going to be a people problem. However, they are going to prepare because they are concerned about the run on the banks and stores. I have to admit, Their attitudes infected me somewhat, but my panic is starting to set in again. Im just thankful that no matter what happens, I live in Arizona: I had to run the air conditioner today.

ronbanks, what do you think? Could you please add your insight? Confirm or deny any of the information Ive presented. This is important buddy, blast me if you need to. I wont take it personally. We need to share our information and perceptions. Furthermore, I truly value your opinion. I noticed you were able to synthesize information far more quickly than I did. What kind of conclusions did you draw?

Finally, I'm sure some of you are going to jump on me for not asking the right questions, or hold me responsible because this report sounds disjointed. I'm sorry, but Ive done the best I can.

-- Laura (Ladylight@aol.com), November 18, 1999

Answers

Opps, I'm LadyLight in another life.

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 18, 1999.

Laura,

This is group pollyanna, group think that is sadly being repeated around the globe. Not a clue regarding the big picture.

"The general consensus was..." It was predetermined before the meeting in the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary. Happy talk for the sake of painting a mirage. Don't waste your time and ours. I know you tried, but we've heard this jist of this timewaster so many times. The uninformed mired in hopeless denial.

The lack of knowledge of the problem is striking. If I wasn't so disgusted I would elaborate more, but what the hell is the use. I would "jump on you regarding the questions" but why? It's out of the world's hands now. It's the human condition...

Just please prepare....

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), November 18, 1999.

Dear Paul,

Forgive me for being new to this site, knowledge, and you. But, I have to ask...what is your background? (How do you know what you know?)

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 18, 1999.

Laura, you did good! I know there will be many on this group that have and will approve of your effort.

My question regarding the pipeline flow from the refinery to the local terminal should read...refined product...not crude. That comes in the other end of the refinery. We have 5 terminals in Phoenix. We have two large pipelines, one from the east and one from the west. They bring in gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel staggered in the same lines.

I know Laura had e-mailed Mr.(Paul) Oves to give him a feel for the questions she would be asking. Even so, the questions made him uncomfortable, and he got just a little red in the face. She was polite but firm with her questions...should I say tenacious?

To picture the players see Paul as Harvey Korman, Laura as Suzanne Summers and myself as Burl Ives. To echo what Laura mentioned was Paul's greatest concern; that everyone heads for the pumps on the 31st of next month. They just don't have enough tanker trucks to keep the stations supplied.

Paul was working with a standard API Y2k presentation that included overhead slides. The message was to be, both my company and the industry is Y2k ok. And then along came Laura and her big bearded buddy banks which at times caused long pauses, staring in directions away from us, changes in facial color with occasional coughs, stammering and stuttering. We were not there to punish or embarrass anyone and later I shook his hand and thanked him.

There were many talented people in attendance and we had ample time to visit and ask questions in a social atmosphere. There are so many What if's.

I think we both went away feeling more secure about Phoenix but just as concerned about all else.

-- rb (ronbanks_2000@yahoo.com), November 19, 1999.

RB, I'm not sure what capacity you have in re: to oil, but as a person, to be "assured" Phoenix is OK is strange. Maybe you didn't mean to sound this way, but it sounds like "we're OK but there might be problems elswhere".

Without OIL, we are SCREWED!!!!!

Phoenix is not the center of the Universe, and most of what you live on doesn't come from there. Etc., etc,.

Just prepare. Who cares what the latest release of a 6 month old PR Spin campaign is. What else are these guys going to say?

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), November 19, 1999.

Gregg,

Of course we're SCREWED! And of course Phoenix is not the middle of the universe! It is however, where I live, and I've just been trying to gauge my Likert-type prediction.

Paul,

Id like to point out that its possible we have "groupthink" right here on this very forum. Sure we do! But, Im going to take your advice, and go look for a place to live on the Far outskirts of town. I havent done it yet because Ive been afraid of being a single female in a new part of town when tshtf, but I concluded last night I have no choice. Thanks for the shove.

Ron,

Hey buddy, those were great descriptions! We really do look like those people! Damn you are a smart/insightful man.

Id comment more on the meeting, but Im done dickin around. Im in a panic today, so I have to do some serious preparing or lose my mind. (Maybe I already have, but at least getting out of my apartment will provide some peace of mind.)

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 19, 1999.

Thanks Laura,

I'd say this turned out like I would have expected. You were challenging industry spin, and there was no smoking gun to be uncovered. All the oil companies are saying we have it covered, even if they're not sure. When everybody in the industry is saying that, no loner is going to stand up and say, "we're afraid we don't have it covered like you guys."

BTW, it's not different in any other industry. Good pin on the question of sampling embedded systems, though. All identical "models" are not the same. They just perform the same prior to rollover.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 19, 1999.

Laura,

You did remarkably well under difficult circumstances. You did much better than most.

I found many of this man's statements to be simply incredible. Notably his lack of recognition of the Baker Hughes name. He obviously does not know as much as the billing given to him would lead a person to believe.

While I don't know much about Tosco's capabilities, his statements regarding a month of oil supply is simply incredulous. Did he mean his company kept on-hand 1 mo. of crude supply at all times? The industry is running JIT with about 3 to 4 day max capacity. This is due in part to taxing policies + cashflow mgmt and more importantly due to newer EPA regulations regarding storage capacity. Now, Perhaps he was implying 1 mo. for the industry as a whole. That also is a bit off the mark unless he's referencing all crude from the pipelines at the well to the tankers to the ports to the storage tanks and the lines into refineries. I've not seen any specific data on this, but one refinery manager (a relative of mine) reiterated to me recently that most of the industry is now running on a 1 to 2 day back-up inventory of refined product with about 4-5 days of crude in reserve.

Regarding remediation of oil wells... GUESS WHAT FOLKS... THIS GUY JUST STATED THE CASE FOR the EMBEDDEDS "DOWNHOLE" issue. Remember, Factfinder has been claiming there is no "downhole" embeddeds... Well this Tosco representative did state the following:

==== "P. I would say that theres probably a lot of them that are downhole problems. (ia) but they know what those chips are."

He admits to embeddeds being "downhole problems" !!! Of course he then insinuates that its no big deal because "they know what those chips are." Yeah, right! Talk about a SPINNNNNNNNN... that just made us all a little dizzy didn't it? So they know what those chips are ...so its no big problem when they malfunction cause they know what they are????

Let me tell ya...when those big wells go down and the well loses pressure it becomes a really big problem cause then they just have to cap it off and redrill a new one. Now that is a problem. Either this guy is not as knowledgeable about oil wells as we're led to believe or his in major spin overdrive...or both. =======

Paul, the speaker goes on to say...

"Every last one of them. We know who made them and what model they are."

ME: SO???? What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? The issue is will the well lose pressure and have to be capped due to a malfunction? Also, if not, how soon can you get a replacement system designed and installed. REMEMBER MOST OF THESE ARE CUSTOMIZED. No two wells were wired exactly alike according to various sources I've spoken with including a top oil-well remediator in Texas.

In addition to one of my designer-remediator sources... there was a fellow here who posted awhile back who also does this kind of designing... the fact is that it can take up to 5-6 months to design and fabricate a new customized replacement. Remember, many (most) do not have any previous written documentation records. If a chip fails within a system its usually sealed with an epoxy over the circuits so the system is no longer even readable once you open into the sealed system. It's usually one long project to fix. Won't happen overnite. In most cases, parts off the shelf won't work. We're not talking about implementation like you would for clothing. Some items can be swapped from the shelf...primarily in refineries...but both there and oil wells especially are primarily customized and no two customized systems are exactly alike.

=============

Now I like this next little segment too...

P. Then what we do..we take a sample of them and we make an umbrella, close down that oilwell and rework the well four or five (ia) pull the chip out (ia) if it doesnt fail, theres no reason to believe the rest of them of that model and that manufacturer (ia).

WHOOOOOOAAAAAA.... stop the tape... cut the cameras... "close down the well"?????? I think he's talking about the prior testing??? Remember here each well is different, customized. Stopping a well is very risky... most co's only tested a few... the rest they have no idea about because the industry norm was that they kept very few schematic records. He's referring to type-testing. Type-testing of items within a customized setting??? Did any of you read the Baker Hughes WARNINGS to customers not to take for granted compliance on a part/system that was installed in a customization format???? Yeah, big potential problems... i.e. more than likely you're gonna have a problem. This is why folks like the IEA and fellows like Bruce Beach were trying to raise the 'alarms'... Type-testing means that the only recourse for problems becomes Fix on failure because there is no longer a "pro-active" comprehensive approach which is what is needed. to eliminate the risks and this was do-able had the companies started back in the early 1990s.

========== L. If it does fail, how long does it take to get back up.

P. (ia )Baker Hughes (ia) gets around to it(ia) I dont know ..(ia) 24 hrs.

I love it... the guy doesn't know who Baker Hughes is...but he's an expert in the oil industry... but he doesn't know who BH is but he does bother to mention them...???!!! Bahwaaaahhhaaaaahhhhaaahhhh...

If we give him the benefit of the doubt that he doesn't know them, then he also is clueless about parts ordering and turnaround times not to mention not knowing about customization of entire systems... that would have to be reworked or a new one made. Back orders have been extensive in certain time-date versions...and with Taiwan's quake damaged manufacturers, it only compounds the problem. Either he is clueless or he's doing quick-witted "acting" as a spin meister. ==========

Laura you then ask...

L. So, you do know who Baker Hughes is.

TERRIFIC!!!!!! GREAT FOLLOW UP LAURA!!!!! 5 star follow up Q.

Now we come to a MYTH-PROMOTION POINT...these guys foisted on ya...

Michael Laura, there are sixty billion embedded chips in the world, of that, the number that we expect, like 3%

L. are critical. I know.

M. Thats number 1. Number 2: Of that theres only 1/10th of 1% that will have any problems. Youre talking about an infinitesimal amount. (ia) SRP (local electric company) went through their entire system, from stem to stern, they did not find one embedded chip (problem? Inaudible). OK. My guess is, that most of that are not time and date driven. (ia)

Not all are necessarily date-driven but most are... note this fellow's key phrase here is "my guess is..." "my guess is..." GUESSING??? He's supposed to be THE EXPERT...He's supposed to KNOW if he's an expert. This is more PR spin.

My contacts and also other reports that I'm hearing and reading from are indicating that the rate is ranging from as low as 7% to as much as 25% to 30% in some applications. See the IEA and also Bruce Beach's embeddeds report. One of my remediator sources in Texas oil country indicates that on average he was seeing about 7% overall but certain applications have run as much as 50%. Overall though, 7% is probably reflective of a general across the board average. ============ we continue....

"SRP (local electric company) went through their entire system, from stem to stern, they did not find one embedded chip (problem? Inaudible). OK. My guess is, that most of that are not time and date driven. (ia)

OH-- HERE AGAIN... "my guess is..." He's continuing to guess...this is exactly what the oil industry has been doing...guessing...only it would be more accurate to state that they are 'gambling'... against the odds...but only because they are forced to. Time is against them. The industry didn't have the necessary time left to do the job right in the first place so now its CYA time and keep the fingers crossed.

As has been stated repeatedly... electricity embedded factors are not any reliable indicator for the oil industry as they are employed in entirely different configurations.

============ Continuing with the dialogue...

"Braha. Well some of them are not produced any more. Some of those companies are out of business."

P. Then what we do..we take a sample of them and we make an umbrella, close down that oilwell and rework the well four or five (ia) pull the chip out (ia) if it doesnt fail, theres no reason to believe the rest of them of that model and that manufacturer (ia).

Comment -- again this fellow is referring to type-testing which makes invalid assumptions as has been stated here by others. This same remediator indicates that this is simply flawed logic and that testing shows clearly that just because one type doesn't in one custom configuration doesn't mean that it's okay in all custom configurations...it becomes an irrational assumption based upon prior testing experiences. Again, it really is gambling on the part of the industry as a whole, as my sources have told me.

Again, remember that shutting down a well can mean a permanent shutdown requiring re-drilling.

========= talking about an infinitesimal amount.(ia) SRP (local electric company) went through their entire system, from stem to stern, they did not find one embedded chip (problem? Inaudible). OK. My guess is, that most of that are not time and date driven. (ia)

L. Well, actually, I do have some sources that say that they are.

M. Well, Im sure you can find a source for everything.

P. (ia) I will stand behind that statement by the American Petroleum (ia).

L. Well, One of my sources is the International Energy Agency, which is the watchdog for your industry

P. Who are they, and how long ago did they say it.

L. June, or September.

WHOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAA ... this guy doesn't know the IEA????????????? and this guy is an "expert" on all facets of the oil biz????? What's wrong with this picture???? Notice how many times this guy used the word "GUESSING"... Why does he use that word so much??? Could it be that we should take him at his word that he is indeed guessing??? ALERT: SPINMEISTER AT WORK... CAUTION --- some of the meister's statements must simply be for disinformational purposes only??? BE HAPPY!!! BUY OUR PRODUCTS SOME MORE!!! NOW SEE WHAT HAPPENS>>>> LAURA's question just simply exposed this guy for what he is ... a PR spinmeister... and note how fast the "moderator-protector" comes in to 'rescue' the guest from such 'mean old doomers'... LAURA you must have really rattled their cages pretty good. GOOD FOR YOU!!!

=========== Continuing on to the finale...

M.. We can sit here and debate all we want, Weve been through this for four years now, and weve found more than one side to the story.

L. Yes, of course. But, we have a real, live man here, and I want to be able to ask these questions

M. Laura, hold off. Weve asked Paul to share his knowledge

L. And I appreciate it 

M. and if you disagree with him

L. Im not necessarily disagreeing with him, Im asking what

M. Hes already answered those questions. Hes got sources and youve got sources. Right now I think we need to take that off line.

BACKPEDALING FOR HELP HERE.... They actually had to cut you off... You really did get to them.

L. (To Paul) Would you be willing to?

P. No. I have to get back to work. Look, Im giving you everything Ive got. OK. I dont have a specific answer to everything (ia) but I can tell you that somebody linked with an organization (ia) in the world (ia) and they feel comfortable about whats goin on. To me (ia) solving problems.

"The recorder clicked off, and I couldnt turn it over without attracting attention. He didnt talk much longer anyway."

=============

My final thoughts to Laura...

You did good work there Laura. It would appear that you really rained on a parade with good questions and were politely tenacious not to let this guy off the hook. Most people would be too intimidated to follow through and demand straightforward answers.

This guy doesn't know. He's guessing on certain key technical aspects that IF he were an "expert" he'd already have known. The guy is simply a PR man. His purpose was to give the company/industry spin. It is therefore better for such a PR man to remain out of the loop on these issues because then they can seem to be honestly telling the truth and in their own mind they don't know the real situation. It's good "SPIN 101" theory being applied here.

So again, congratulations Laura.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 19, 1999.

Hi, Laura,

I'm proud of you -- you did very well. As soon as I finished looking at the transcript, I knew that if you had had the time, you would have nailed this guy to the wall. Too bad they cut you off.

Just keep in mind that this guy is paid to do a job; and that job is that no matter what the real situation is, to make things look nice. And by keeping the interview short, my guess is that he was able to keep it from coming apart, although you took him to task on some juicy stuff.

Of course, it's possible that he may actually believe the stuff he's preaching.

A note on a detail: There has been some very interesting information out on the problems with sampling chips. That is that even with the same model and manufacturer you could have important differences. But I don't recall the details. (If anyone out there does, please refresh us on this.)

Way to go, Laura!

Talk to you soon,

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 19, 1999.

rb:

I don't understand your comment about feeling more secure about Pheonix, yet concerned about all else. Could you expand on this?

Thanks,

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 19, 1999.

R.C.

Another polite request to ask if you could respond to my questions to you in Factfinder's html version of this "myths" thread.

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), November 19, 1999.

Laura, Thanks for the report; It's obviouse the man is in CYA mode, but that alone does not mean he is flat out llying.

An OT-aside, have you considered running your tape through one of those "reverse speech" gizmos? Could be very revealing in places....

-- Hillbilly (Hillbilly@possum.creek), November 19, 1999.

eve

The reason Laura and I were both feeling a bit more secure regarding Phoenix was due to our opportunity to visit (eyeball to eyeball) with a lot of various y2k project managers (state, county and city); also some local business IT guys.

And for those that think we are jingoistic, the answer is yes, we are.

As no man is an island so to as regards a city. We were only saying we are more convinced now that inside the city limits a lot of work has been done.

We also heard a good presentation by our police department but that is for another time and thread.

And for those that think we should just shut up and go buy some more beans & rice...been there, done that!

-- rb (ronbanks_2000@yahoo.com), November 19, 1999.

Hillbilly,

I have never heard of a "reverse gizmo." But, Im not sure it would make any difference. Much of the tape is inaudible because the recorder embedded (!) a whine in it. Furthermore, it was hidden in my purse where the sounds were slightly muffled.

I wrote down the comments I was confident I could hear/understand. Maybe someone else can hear something I didnt, but I dont think whatever information uncovered would be that important. Besides, if Ron thought I had left out something, he would have mentioned it.

Ron,

Jingoistic! Are you accusing me of being belligerent? You are the only man on earth Ill let get away with that. (Remember, I carry a .357) : o )

Would you like to have a copy of the tape?

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 19, 1999.

I meant jingoistic in the sense....one who boasts of their patriotism and love of (in this case Phoenix).

The tape has served its purpose and did not self-destruct (as per the mfg's guarantee). Get up right now and take it to the canal and toss it. Then come back an re-read Orwell's 1984 one more time.

And you know I have no fear of your 357 as I am a master of feng shui.

One last look back at our 15 minutes of Y2k fame: You wanted an admission that there were things that could go wrong between the well head and the refinery. He ignored your desire for that info to only say that if such should occur they would find a way around it and besides, if something should occur it would not show up in Phoenix for a number of weeks. His fixation was that we might fill-up on the 31st.

Some people who say they are in the oil & gas business just have oil on their hair and gas on their stomach.(:-|=)

-- rb (ronbanks_2000@yahoo.com), November 19, 1999.

You big, smart, beautiful dude - can I buy you a Coke?

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 19, 1999.

Interesting inteview, but a public affairs guy for a distributor company? This isn't where you need to get your embedded systems expertise, lol. RC, if this is what passes as "evidence" and a reliable source to you, then you've pretty much given up getting me a manufacdturer and model number, haven't you, lol. All in all, amusing.

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), November 19, 1999.

FactFinder,

I understand why you would think that, if this is the first post of mine you've read.

If you had been reading my prior posts, you would have seen:

Paul Oves is Vice President of Public Affairs and Special Projects for Tosco Marketing Company which operates through the Circle K, 76, and Exxon brands in Arizona. Paul has spent 35 years in virtually all aspects of the petroleum business. Currently, in addition to his normal duties, he is in charge of the Y2K issue as it relates to almost 5000 gasoline and convenience retail outlets nationwide.

The gentleman has THIRTY-FIVE years experience in the business. He said during the meeting he has worked in the field and gave other specifics. I assumed all would understand he has some measure of credibility. When I get time this weekend, I will go back over the tape and transcribe his introduction.

Laura

-- (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 20, 1999.

Michael Laura, there are sixty billion embedded chips in the world, of that, the number that we expect, like 3%

L. are critical. I know.

M. Thats number 1. Number 2: Of that theres only 1/10th of 1% that will have any problems. Youre talking about an infinitesimal amount.

This is really over the top. If 1.8 million could be considered infinitesimal, then perhaps the basis for comparison was the number of atoms in the universe.

Interesting inteview, but a public affairs guy for a distributor company? This isn't where you need to get your embedded systems expertise, lol.

Granted, this person's job function puts him a considerable distance from the real experts in the company. But if that's cause to discount his statements, then I ask, of all the statements being made publicly about Y2K, from either public or private sectors, what percentage should not be discounted for the same reason.

-- David L (bumpkin@dnet.net), November 20, 1999.

Hi David,

It is a pleasure to meet you. Thank you very much for calculating "1.8 million" for us; my calculator can't do that.

Now will you do me a favor? Will you divide that 1.8 million by 1/10th of 1 percent? Or, have you already done that?

I would sure appreciate it.

"Michael Laura, there are sixty billion embedded chips in the world, of that, the number that we expect, like 3%

L. are critical. I know.

M. Thats number 1. Number 2: Of that theres only 1/10th of 1% that will have any problems. Youre talking about an infinitesimal amount.(ia)"

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 20, 1999.

It's a pleasure to meet you too, Laura. Here's what I did:

Start with 60 billion embedded chips

3% of those are critical: .03 x 60 billion = 1.8 billion

1/10 of 1% of those will have problems:

1/10 of (1% of 1.8 billion) = 1/10 of 18 million = 1.8 million

Hope this makes it clear.

Important caveat: I'm assuming that the estimate of 60 billion is in terms of the American system of naming numbers. I believe the British refer to as a billion, what Americans call a trillion. Please tell us that Michael spoke with a British accent. 8^)

-- David L (bumpkin@dnet.net), November 20, 1999.

David,

Your calculation of 1.8 million is correct. I found my Windows calculator.

And no, he didn't have a Canadian accent. If I am any judge of accents, he hasn't been any further north than New York.

Today I'm wondering, "How many of those chips have been remediated in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico?" No way to know... I guess I am most worried about Mexico - because they're poor and so darn close!

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 20, 1999.