What was the Dow at when Greenspan suggested Irrational??

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Man oh Man,

I got a nose bleed after today!!

As the days click by it just gets plain Weird.

interest rates,Oil,Greenspan, Could money and the love thereof be an addiction??

-- db (dciinc@aol.com), November 18, 1999

Answers

Somewhere between 6000 & 7000.

-- goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), November 18, 1999.

Around 6400 I believe.

When the Dow is up 150+ points and there are more losers than winners on the NYSE I'd keep a wary eye out.

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), November 18, 1999.


It's Y2K,,BUT in reverse.Use your head.With the USA in better shape for y2k,where to you think the rest of the world is going to put their money? Oh,I know Italy!!! No,no, wait,Venezuela,right? No,no,let me try again? Mexico!!! Right!!! HUH? HUH? Right? Right? Good Greeeef!!! Money is pouring in from other countries!!!

-- marketman (playing@ themarket.com), November 18, 1999.

Don't it just wanna make ya hurl?

Nasdaq earnings up 15% this year. Nasdaq prices up 45%. By my math, the bubble has grown 30% this year alone. What about last year? Earnings actually shrunk afew percent while the market cap grew ballpark 30%. Gosh sakes, that's 65+% bubble growth since 1/1/98.

I'm starting to reduce my market correction estimates down in the vicinity of a 90% drop. (Y2K not included.) Logic is actually quite simple. We are at the unprecedented tippy top of the P/E range (35). If the market adjusts toward the bottom (7) we can account for an 80% drop WITH NO ADJUSTMENT TO EARNINGS. Of course, in the event of a crash, earnings may get nudged a little. Factor of 2 gets you to a 90% drop.

It could be worse. As noted on a previous post, an analyst at the Prudent Bear has the DOW targeted to 400. (A self-proclaimed bear.) To get there you certainly have to start chattering about flaws in the fiat currencies of the world. I'm not ready to do that...yet.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 18, 1999.


6494 at the open, down 245 points at the close.Get out of the market and into T-bills soon!

-- (iop@erthlink.net), November 18, 1999.


I forget the exact date- it was circa Dec 4 to 6 of 1996. The high of those 3 days was 6452; the low was 6292.

-- Drew Parkhill (y2k@cbn.org), November 18, 1999.

Just when you didn't think the bubble could stretch any further. I wish I could get the patent on the substance of the bubble. How is it unlike the tulib bulb speculation in Holland? Anybody with money is pumping it into the NASDAQ IPOs because they know and rightfully so it will balloon to five times its initial offering and most of the companies aren't making any money (its the promise of earnings for most of them). I'm pissed off because I must be one of half a dozen idiots that isn't on the bandwagon. Yeah, I know, it could reverse any second now but it darn sure isn't the spectre of Y2K that's stopping it - It's picking up momentum - Higher interest rates, nope, reason to celebrate - Record trade deficit (yummy, it must be good for our economy according to the stock market), nope - Highest oil prices in 3? years, NO PROBLEM - INSANITY is DRIVING OUR MARKETS Exactly WHAT Exceptionally Significant thing has occurred since the market took the big dump upon Russia's debt default?

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), November 18, 1999.

the stocket market's incredible inflatable ballon reminds me of a 3 Stooges episode where they are catering a posh birthday party, and they inflate the wedding cake with gas from the stove, so as to serve everyone. When the birthday gal blows out the candles of course its - ---KABOOOM!!

-- Robert King (robking@dell.com), November 18, 1999.

DAVE: You're on the RIGHT track! Congratulations. That DJIA 400 estimate is no accident. READ "At the Crest of The Tidal Wave" 1995, by Robert R. Prechter. It SPECIFICALLY mentions this as the UPPER end of the expected GrandSupercycle Fractal WAVE FOUR , which WILL take the DJIA down to the area of the 4th wave of one-lesser-degree. That is the Supercycle Wave four of 1929-1932, which saw the DJIA drop 89% from 381 to 41. Since the G.C. WAVE FOUR is of one GREATER degree, expect a drop of 95-99%! That is not a misprint, either. When the DJIA hits 100, it will be a 99% retracement of this 5th of 5th of 5th of 5th...rise.

In the end NO monetary power can stop a massive deflation-depression . Just look at the 1929 crash. The FED monster was created in 1913, yet why then was there a crash if they were so omnipotent?

Massive psychological forces totally inundate any feeble human attempt at stopping them--they can only be postponed. In fact, that is exactly what Elliott waves are--mathematical waves of mass psychology.

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), November 18, 1999.


Can anyone say Flubber

-- PD (PaulDMaher@att.worldnet.com), November 19, 1999.


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