Reuters Poll 12.21 p.m. ET (1732 GMT) November 18, 1999 WASHINGTON  Nearly three in five Americans plan to hold extra cash at New Year's time for fear of the 2000 computer bug, according to a poll for Reuters released on Thursday.

Of this group  equivalent to about 65 million households  one in five termed it reasonable to squirrel away as much as a month or more of income, the survey showed.

The random telephone poll of 1,006 adults nationwide was carried out by Zogby International Nov. 8 to 11. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Error margins are higher for sub-groups.

The survey found most Americans seemed to be hedging their bets on the so-called Y2K glitch, a design flaw that could trip unprepared computers and the operations they control on Jan. 1, 2000.

A total of 58.9 percent of those quizzed said they were ''very likely'' or "somewhat likely'' to have more cash on hand than usual as a precaution. Four in five in this group called it "reasonable'' to hang on to at least one week's income.

The ultimate fear is a run on banks  even though officials from President Clinton down say the estimated $100 billion being spent on fixing the glitch has left the world's most technologically dependent nation well-prepared for the century date change.

On Nov. 10  as the poll was under way  Clinton voiced confidence that Y2K would cause "no major national breakdowns'' nor "put the savings or the safety of the American people at risk.''

FED HAS ORDERED $50 BILLION IN CASH

The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, has ordered $50 billion in extra currency printed to allay any fears of a shortage because of possible hoarding as 2000 approaches. This will bring to "well over'' $200 billion the sum in its vaults in addition to the $170 billion in circulation in the United States, Fed spokeswoman Rose Pianalto said.

The Reuters/Zogby poll's findings on likely cash stockpiling "certainly sounds well within what the banking industry can handle,'' said John Hall, a spokesman for the American Bankers Association, the industry's largest trade group.

The Fed, eager to head off fears that could spook financial markets, has been keeping close tabs on consumer attitudes toward Y2K and is preparing to release a poll of its own.

That poll  carried out by Gallup for the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.  found "a declining percentage of people who are planning to take out additional cash for Y2K,'' Pianalto said.

She said the Reuters/Zogby findings on cash stockpiling ''don't seem to square'' with the poll for the authorities to be released later on Thursday.

On Oct. 15 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the biggest threat from the Y2K glitch was the "uncertain response'' of the U.S. consumer as the clock ticks down to 2000. He discounted as "negligible'' the danger of cascading computer failures in critical systems.

Bankers report scant signs of any cash hoarding to date, perhaps because of increasingly rosy predictions by government and industry that 1999 will exit with a whimper, not a bang.

"We haven't had any customers coming in to request large amounts of currency or cash at this point,'' said Michael Griffin, president of Statewide Savings, a Jersey City, New Jersey, thrift with 15 branches. "None, none.''

But Griffin said Statewide Savings, which has more than $740 million in assets, planned to "more than double'' the amount of cash in its vaults to replenish automatic teller machines over the New Year weekend. Like all federally insured institutions, Statewide will have quick access to additional cash "should we need it so that we would never have the perception that the bank is out of money,'' he said.

INVESTORS WILL NOT CHANGE INVESTMENT PATTERNS

Despite the Reuters/Zogby findings on cash-holding at New Year's time, 68.7 percent of respondents said they were not likely to change their larger investment patterns, for instance by selling stocks and bonds or by buying gold, once a hedge against uncertain times.

A total of 86.4 percent of shareowners interviewed said they were inclined to hold "about the same'' amount of stocks as January approaches; 7.6 percent said they would hold less.

This is a finding that should comfort the securities industry, which has launched an advertising blitz urging investors to take a long-term view despite any Y2K jitters.

A total of 57.6 percent of respondents said they were either definitely or highly likely to fill up their car's gasoline tank ahead of the new year.

But fewer than one in three said they were highly likely or definitely planning to stock up on food, household fuel and emergency supplies.

Significantly, the poll found fewer than one in 10  7.2 percent  planned to go shopping with extra cash in early January even if it is clear by then that the Y2K bug poses no significant problems. A total of 54.4 percent said they would redeposit it, while one in four said they would keep it at home, presumably spending it over time.

This could be a disappointment to retailers hoping for a spending spree prompted by cash on hand and relief that the worst Y2K-related fears would have come and gone.

Although the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued a warning Nov. 2 of possible 2000-related violence by doomsday cults and conspiracy theorists, the poll found four in five gunowners said they were not likely to purchase extra ammunition.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), November 18, 1999

Answers

link:

www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/index.sml

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), November 18, 1999.

What's an average week's wages, after tax? $250? $250 * 1.6 weeks * 100,000,000 earners = $40 billion. Is that in the ballpark?

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 18, 1999.

I think the average is more like $600/week, * 4 = $2400, * 100,000,000 = 240,000,000,000 (240 Billion).

I don't think the banks are gonna make it. Remember, MOST of these people will attempt to obtain this money during the last two weeks of December.

Bank runs are a'comin folks...

-- Dennis (djolson@cherco.net), November 18, 1999.

The average American does not HAVE $600. The a.A. is several thousand in debt.

Doesn't mean there won't be a bank-run. Just something to keep in mind.

-- extra cash (what@extra.cash), November 18, 1999.

Hmm...if you had taken extra cash out of the bank, would you tell a stranger in a telephone poll?

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 18, 1999.

"But fewer than one in three said they were highly likely or definitely planning to stock up on food, household fuel and emergency supplies."

This does not bode well for our resillience as a people in the face of exposure to the variety of emergency scenarios that are possible in the months to come, (y2k and "panic", CME's, nuclear attack, cyberterrorism, other terrorism, "eath changes" in magnetic fields, etc.)

-- anon (anon@anon.calm), November 19, 1999.

Looks like their "spin" isn't working.....

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 19, 1999.